So I was a little perplexed the other day...

when I spotted several ASM #301's commanding $750+... and it got me thinking. What is it about this book that would make it command such a premium for a 9.8? I mean, nothing that significant happens in the story, so there's gotta be more to it, right?

being the nerd I am, I started doing some quick research and here's what I found... of the 433 graded, only 30 are certified 9.8s (with none grading higher). Statistically, it has a 6.93% top tier percentile. But is that good? And what is the likelihood that that percentile will hold in the long run once more books are submitted for grading?

So I started doing a little more reasearch, but now expanding to other "hot" modern books... and here's some interesting stats...

ASM 238 ... 9.8s = 93 ... total graded = 1789 ... 5.20% top tier

ASM 252 ... 9.8s = 310 .. total graded = 3489 ... 8.89% top tier

ASM 298 ... 9.8s = 172 .. total graded = 1950 ... 8.82% top tier

ASM 300 ... 9.8s = 215 .. total graded = 5284 ... 4.07% top tier

ASM 301 ... 9.8s = 30 ... total graded = 433 .... 6.93% top tier

ASM 36v2 .. 9.8s = 862 .. total graded = 3261 ... 26.43% top tier

UXM 212 ... 9.8s = 47 ... total graded = 547 .... 8.59% top tier

UXM 266 ... 9.8s = 412 .. total graded = 2647 ... 15.56% top tier

UXM 268 ... 9.8s = 46 ... total graded = 491 .... 9.37% top tier

NM 98 ..... 9.8s = 320 .. total graded = 1060 ... 30.19% top tier

ULSM 1red . 9.8s = 194 .. total graded = 2215 ... 8.76% top tier

ULSM 1DYF . 9.8s = 112 .. total graded = 744 .... 15.05% top tier

ULSM 1wht . 9.8s = 235 .. total graded = 1106 ... 21.25% top tier

of course this isn't a perfect survey, since I did not exclude signature series from the sample pool nor are 10s/9.9s included as 9.8s, but you get the idea.

so, what can I learn from all this... for starters, the smaller the top tier, the better... the "largest" top tier on the list would be New Mutants 98 (1st Deadpool) at 30.19%... that means that of all the books graded by CGC, almost a third of them are 9.8s... in comparison, the "smallest" top tier would be Amazing Spider-Man 300 (1st Venom) at 4.07%... so for roughly every 7 1st Deadpools in CGC 9.8, there's only one 1st Venom in CGC 9.8... taking this into account, you could speculate that it is much tougher to receive a 9.8 grade if you submit an ASM 300 as opposed to submitting a NM 98, and so forth. Also, if you look at the total graded of each issue, the demand for slabbed ASM 300s against NM 98s is almost 5 to 1, something that will definately benefit you in the long run if the pattern holds.

so where do you put your money?

for one... I would invest in 9.8s with a top teir of 10% or less with at least 1000 books graded, ideally... those will probably be the books that will hold teir the longest and not see as much drastic movement in regards to percentile fluctuations...

two, what is the premium for a CGC 9.8 over an unslabbed version of the same book in the same condition? if CGC 9.8s command 2x-4x they're counterpart in the same raw grade, it might be better off buying the raw for submission, if affordable and you're willing to take the risk. case in point... if i know I can get a raw New Mutants 98 in unslabbed 9.8 for $45, why would I spend $260 for a CGC 9.8 when I know I have just about a 30% chance at receiving a 9.8 grade once submitted... flipside... i'd rather pay $850+ on a Amazing Spider-Man 300 CGC 9.8 than buying raw for $300-400 because I have only a 5% chance at receiving a 9.8 grade through submission.

so this is all very interesting at this point to me and i'll be doing some additional independent anaylsis ini the future, but I just wanted to share this as food for thought...