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Gatsby77

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Everything posted by Gatsby77

  1. Gatsby77
    BS. Context matters. Benchmarks matter. For instance, it looks catastrophic that Aquaman 2's China box office is running 80% below that of Aquaman's. Until you realize that Aquaman 2's U.S. box office is running 62%+ below that of Aquaman's. Rinse and repeat for the bulk of the other films listed, and the data likely show it's not just a China problem. That's like saying "Leonardo DiCaprio should have won the Best Supporting Actor Oscar for What's Eating Gilbert Grape." - A perfectly fine sentiment on its own, but it lacks context. That he was up that year against: Tommy Lee Jones in The Fugitive Ralph Fiennes in Schindler's List John Malkovich in In the Line of Fire
  2. Gatsby77
    Is it just China-specific, though? Haven't the U.S. results have seen similar declines in those sequels as well, barring perhaps "Across the Spider-verse?"
  3. Gatsby77
    It's crazy that this has creamed Dune - both domestically and internationally.
  4. Gatsby77
    I saw the first few episodes of Season 1 over the holidays and enjoyed it. But I don't have Apple TV...
  5. Gatsby77
    Short term, I think it doesn’t matter as much. Why? 2023 had the same number of films (2) gross >$1.2 billion worldwide as did 2022 But none of those 4 films were superhero ones. You have to go back to 2021 to find a $1 billion-grossing superhero flick - and despite their being two monster $1 billion+ grossers last year, precisely one superhero film managed to clear even $500 million (Guardians 3). So…despite the growth in streaming, audiences are still hungry to watch blockbusters in the theater - just not so much comic book ones.
  6. Gatsby77
    Yes. It's amazing how a certain voice here will go to great pains to defend superhero films he likes, even (often especially) the abject critical and box office failures, and then take issue with literally anyone who posts negative (yet objectively verifiable) counter-arguments. The reality is, Aquaman 2 failed - just as The Marvels, The Flash, Black Adam, Justice League Part 1 and BvS all failed as well. These films have no defense, as one could simply look at the critical and box office results or (in the case of BvS) the number of projects that were significantly reworked and/or straight canceled in its wake. Again, their failures are self-evident. But anyone who merely points this out in response to repeated glowing spin, like daily gushing updates about Aquaman 2's "legs" from Luiz, is subjected to repeated denials and inappropriate personal attacks. As you pointed out, "legs" basically don't matter when your opening weekend starting point is 60% below that of your first film, or when you lose your # 1 status on day 4 despite weak competition, or (in the case of BvS) word-of-mouth is so bad that your 2nd-weekend drop is >69%.
  7. Gatsby77
    But you have to give Warner Bros. some credit here. They picked the absolute best release date - immediately pre-Christmas, with an uninterrupted holiday corridor and the only major competition in the first 5 weeks from middling Jason Stratham actioner The Beekeeper... And it only lasted as # 1 movie for all of three days before being dethroned by (checks notes) The Color Purple remake.
  8. Gatsby77
    What's the lag for international? Because Luiz said it would hit $400 million worldwide on Tuesday. Box Office Mojo is showing EOD Wednesday results as $398.4 million.
  9. Gatsby77
    On the one hand, Brad Meltzer's not wrong. And he's one of our own, having delivered a masterpiece with Identity Crisis. On the other, I'm okay with the result. Yes - it's always a slap in the face when a film is nominated for Best Picture but not Best Director, but the genius I saw on display in Barbie wasn't in the directing, but in the writing - and Gerwig was properly nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay. Also, while Margot Robbie played her role extremely well, Ryan Gosling had the much harder assignment - and he nailed it. Flip side of this - I don't believe America Ferrera deserves Best Supporting Actress for Barbie - because it wasn't the role so much as the writing. *Any* half-way decent actress who had her "Women" monologue would have gotten the nomination. Same thing with prior nominations (and wins) for Emma Stone in La La Land or Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables -> they were dumb. Swap out any other actress and give them the La La Land "Audition" monologue or "I Dreamed a Dream" song and they would have won. Because it was the script itself, not a particularly compelling performance by the actress given that script. Example: Amy Adams would have *killed* the Audition monologue in La La Land, mopping the floor with Emma Stone. Big difference between a passable actress or actor given a killer script (Ferrera, Stone, Hathaway, etc.) and an amazing actress or actor who *made* the role (Gosling as Ken), elevating it far beyond what was in the script itself.
  10. Gatsby77
    You're not wrong. Lift arguably has gotten a little boost from being released during the winter vs. the summer. But even with various snow storms and school closures, no way did people have more discretionary time over the last two weeks than they did over the December 23-Jan. 1 holiday corridor, prime vacation time not only in the U.S. but in much of the world. Plus, Lift is just an average disposable Netflix film, one of the type they churn out every month that will be largely forgotten by next month. With a $100 million budget, it's 66% cheaper than Rebel Moon, and it lacks the franchise expectations and investment, including planned multimedia tie-ins of books / comic books / podcast / animated show, etc. Yet, it's already outperforming Rebel Moon by a solid margin. Good for Kevin Hart, I guess.
  11. Gatsby77
    Lotta' hype in this thread for the sequel to a film that went from $1.1 bn. worldwide and a # 5 global finish for the year in 2018... to this one, which will finish outside the top 12 for the year, *maybe* hit $420 million total, and after 34 days has finally managed to surpass the worldwide total of fellow ocean-based film Meg 2: The Trench.
  12. Gatsby77
    Meanwhile, this week's random # 1 Netflix movie is the Kevin Hart heist comedy Lift. Which has scored 69.5 million views in its first 11 days. That's significantly more than Rebel Moon's 57.9 million in its first 11 days - and without the benefit of the Christmas-New Year's holiday break.
  13. Gatsby77
    Paging @valiantman
  14. Gatsby77
  15. Gatsby77
    Yaaaaaay! A DCEU film’s finally gonna’ break $400M worldwide! 8th time’s the charm I guess. Just gonna’ finish, err… $700 million or so behind the first Aquaman film.
  16. Gatsby77
    I wasn't trying to make this a DC v. Marvel thing but no - the MCU absolutely killed the DCEU over the same time period. 10 films released (vs. 8) 4 of which grossed $800+ million Only 1 DCEU film during that time period even touched $400M (Aquaman 2, which will do so soon) Even 3 Marvel films that weren't (shall we say) good by any stretch of the imagination still were solid commercial successes. They were: Guardians of the Galaxy 3: $845+ million Black Panther 2: $859+ million Doctor Strange 2: $955+ million None of these are A-list comic book characters, whereas Wonder Woman arguably is.
  17. Gatsby77
    Hey now - this is only the 8th blatant box office failure in a row. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Blue Beetle The Flash Shazam! Fury of the Gods Black Adam The Suicide Squad Wonder Woman 1984 Birds of Prey But no worries - Jason Momoa can revive his career by headlining Medellin next.
  18. Gatsby77
    It wasn't implied - it was flat-out said. It had a normal P&A budget of ~$100M.
  19. Gatsby77
    ? What was "implied?" @ChillMan stated it "had no marketing budget" - which was obviously hyperbole - but even so, both unwarranted and irrelevant. Unwarranted, because every available source points to its having a normal P&A budget (of ~$100M) for a $200+ million tentpole. And irrelevant, because the marketing budget (or lack thereof) is like 5th or 6th on the list of reasons the film failed.
  20. Gatsby77
    Likewise, one can't argue that audience awareness for this was low, because This was the *5th* film featuring Momoa as Aquaman The first film made over $1.1 billion The Johnny Depp / Amber Heard trial gave this oodles of publicity a full year+ before release - with countless articles questioning whether Heard's role would be diminished or eliminated No - audiences knew what this was - and simply opted out.
  21. Gatsby77
    Yes - estimates, but still an apples-to-apples comparison. Having a pre-release TV budget 1/3 less than the original is still a significant expense - and ~$30 million in pre-release TV advertising alone tracks with an overall worldwide marketing budget of $100M+.
  22. Gatsby77
    Yes, but when you make a claim as absurd as a $200 million tentpole having "no advertising budget," the burden of proof is on you to back it up. Here's another source, citing (or ummm...assuming) pre-release TV advertising alone: "Warner Bros. had a higher-than-average national TV ad budget heading into the opening -- $19.9 million from 1,250 airings resulting in 1.1 billion impressions, according to estimates from EDO Ad EnGage. The studio estimated TV spend was much higher the first time in 2018 [for the first Aquaman] -- a massive $29.6 million pre-opening (2,380 airings and 1.7 billion impressions). For the entire campaign that year, national TV totaled $35.5 million (3,840 airings and 2.47 billion)." https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/392171/aquaman-and-the-lost-kingdom-treads-water-with.html
  23. Gatsby77
    Where are you getting that Aquaman 2 "had no advertising budget?" Variety reported that, while Warner Bros. decided to scale back on advertising, "it likely still cost $100 million." $100 million in advertising for a film costing $205-$215 million to produce seems on par.
  24. Gatsby77
    Kind of amazing that Wonka's only been out a week longer than Aquaman but is running 63% ahead of it domestically. And yesterday Wonka pulled in nearly 50% more than Aquaman did.
  25. Gatsby77
    Another 65% drop from week 3, from 11.1 million views to 3.9 million worldwide - dropping it to # 8 and leaving it 3 places (and 15%) behind...ummm... Tyler Perry's The Single Moms Club.