gcstomp

terry, that is not even close, not even a little bit accurate. That is a board theme minimizing of what is easily going to be the most impactful event in most of our lifetimes. covid-19 has a last reported mortality rate of 3.4% per WHO, posted march 3rd https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#who-03-03-20. You must think all the hubub is quite dramatic as you have assigned a danger level to this of eating ice cream to fast and getting brain freeze. If we look worldwide, 471k cases https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ , but out of closed cases, meaning either recovered (84%) or death (16%) with over 21k deaths. if we just talk about U.S. you must be aware of the daily briefings by Cuomo in NY. ICU beds are full, they need 30k respirators. Entire convention centers and sporting event fields are being taken over to have a place for the ill. This is a just starting in this country pandemic, with the cases in NY doubling every 4.7 days https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-new-york-hospital-cases-today-map-decrease-covid-19-a9425111.html and per some CDC models roughly 1/2 the population will get infected https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html resulting in millions of deaths. 80% of cases are mild, meaning flu like symptoms, not requiring hospitalization. Even this may feel like getting hit by a super flu that constricts your breathing and feels like a belt around chest not allowing you to breath. 13.8% are severe, developing severe diseases including pneumonia and shortness of breath. 4.7% as critical and can include: respiratory failure, septic shock, and multi-organ failure. per latest WHO (link above) 3.4%result in death Risk of death increases the older you are.

Open at 200 ga horror

Anyway, link for latest statistics, updates every few hours as countries submit their updates: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 337,881 worldwide cases, but for the 111,402 closed cases, 87% recovered/discharged, with 13% death rate. In U.S., drop down to open link, again it is updated every few hours so these numbers will be vastly outdated by morning https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ and this is not speculation, conjecture, projection, just data as provided by participating counties. 38,164 cases. This is just the start in the U.S. so there are a mere 574 closed cases, 31% recovered, 69% death, but again this is a virtually meaningless number as we are just at the start of the data collection. I pointed out 3 days ago, when U.S. had 11,000 cases, numbers would be outdated by morning. With U.S. cases doubling every 2 to 3 days, and some CDC models showing 160 mill to 214 mill could be infected in country throughout epidemic https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html

tab, you want me to provide a link to what? it is your original link https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-evidence-over-hysteria with 1st lines right at that link : Update (3/22/2020): After falling under much scrutiny, Medium has deleted Ginn's post. Of note, Ginn is a former 2012 Romney digital campaign staffer with no background in medicine or infectious disease. We are leaving it up for anyone who wants to read, while also including a thread from a biologist who has refuted it. Click on the tweet below to read. and you can point by point follow as Carl Bergstrom, someone with actual credentials, dismantles every bit of the Ginn material with which you started your thread, and made 15 bullet points over. You would open up the Bergstrom twitter thread, the guy who knows his from his elbow, to follow along, but the numbered Bergstrom tweets from YOUR OWN original post and counter point each of the numbered Ginn points: 1. I hate to invest precious time on taking apart the atrocious @aginnt article pictured below, but it is getting too much traction here and even in traditional media. This thread could be far longer than it is, but I'm doing my best to only discuss the most glaring flaws. 2. The introduction should be blaring red warning to any thinking person. The author begins by disputing that *context matters*. Without the background to put information in context, all the data in the world are not defense against misinterpretation. 3. You can give me all the stock market data in the world; I don't have the background to make the best use of it because I fundamentally do not understand how the market works or how to take advantage of that understanding. Infectious disease epidemiology is no different. 4. *Information gets lost in translation.* The author claims to be an expert in making products go viral. I suppose that field has borrowed some ideas from epidemiology. Now he's trying to back-infer how epi works from what he knows about that area. It doesn't work that way. 5. Imagine Shakespeare run through google translate into Japanese, then translated back to English by someone who'd never heard of Shakespeare. So much depth would be missing. Same here. We end up with loose neologisms like "virality" instead of a solid theoretical framework. 6. The author discusses the apparent decline in daily growth rate irrespective of control measures. He begins with some truism about small numbers being easy to move; this is irrelevant in the face of the exponential growth that he stresses in literally the previous sentence. 7. He fails to see that this drop in apparent growth rates is heavily driven by left censoring and shifts in testing strategy. Testing started at different times in different countries, was influenced by case density, and early-on, tests individuals in all stages of disease. 8. Next, inferences about "virality" and "viral capacity". I suppose he means "transmissibility". If so, we've spent 20 years developing sophisticated statistical methods to detect changes in transmissibility. With noisy, aggregate data this back-of-envelope stuff doesn't cut it. 9. Disaggregating data is essential to provide context, especially for transmission processes. That the virus can cross national boundaries does nothing to negate the importance of spatial structure and within-country analysis. Aggregating data obscures critical patterns. 10. I hate to ascribe to malice what can be adequately explained by incompetence, but using this lie to sweep away the disaggregated data is such utter nonsense that I wonder how a silicon valley guy could make this claim by mistake. 11. Then there's the bell curve business. If Hernstein and Murray gave the term a bad name, Ginn says "hold my beer". Most things in nature follow a bell curve, so viruses do too? Not science exactly. And do most things? What about log-normals? Exponentials? Etc etc etc. 12. But that's not the worst part. We have literally over a century's history of mathematical modeling epidemic progression. Some look somewhat bell-like. Others don't. It depends on the circumstances, details of the virus, behavior of the population, interventions, etc. I mean I am just copy/pasting from your own link, demonstrating why your read thru isnt what you understood it to be.

Scary times, the economic impact of millions of small businesses having to shutter down, coupled with how many millions of hourly workers not getting a paycheck, and this may be for months, this will be devastating. you are, maybe, I would guess, in stronger position than many when we go back to regular business as you have decades of inventory and a monster contact list. the restaurants, movie theaters, hair salon, whatever, wont be able to liquidate a backroom and make up for months of missed work. but this seems to be a monster of a storm to be weathered.

tab, not sure this link to article by Ginn regarding virus is what you believe it to be. It point by point is destroyed by Bergstrom, a specialist in field. Update (3/22/2020): After falling under much scrutiny, Medium has deleted Ginn's post. Of note, Ginn is a former 2012 digital campaign staffer with no background in medicine or infectious disease. We are leaving it up for anyone who wants to read, while also including a thread from a biologist who debunked it. Ginn took great liberties to diminish virus, using misleading methodology or outright wrong pathways, that you then posted 15 bullet points. Ginn is basically a flat earther saying all is well. All is not well.

mr zipper, curious, you can see this link, right? https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ it updates as new cases hit worldwide. You can drop down from that link to go from world wide cases, to U.S. cases per this https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ Now, you see numbers for U.S. and you can read how many are active, as in maybe they tested positive this morning. this doesnt have anything to do with death rate, as I would think you would want to compare how many people recovered, vs how many died? In any case, the U.S. numbers are not representative of anything other than very late to the event testing, so I would not draw conclusions on death rate from the U.S. tiny sample, other than testing has just started, and numbers are going to go up.

JJ, you are comparing confirmed cases to deaths. Try comparing recovered and discharged cases from death. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ U.S. has 11, 354 cases (this will be wildly inaccurate in a few hours, but hit link for updated numbers). Of this, 171 U.S. deaths, with 108 recovered. Why so few recovered? Because we are just in the very start of this in this country, where 3 weeks ago we had 15 cases. And 3 weeks is roughly how long it takes to get critically ill, or die.

I think the confusion on death rate is if you look at U.S. infected, and compare to death, that would yield 1, incorrect number. You would look at U.S. closed cases, that make up 1 of 2 outcomes, recovered, or death. This is the very start of a pandemic that just entered the U.S. and it takes 3 weeks for someone to go from infected to critically ill, or dead. Current https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ which will be vastly outdated by morning, recall just 3 short weeks ago when president said we had 15 cases, that would soon be zero, and this would just go away like magic with the warm weather. 11,354 U.S. cases but by morning that will not even be remotely similar to tomorrows number.

BTW, Vietnam War was considered a big deal, back in the day. Streets filled daily with war protesters. Entire decade long conflict was 58k american people killed, or 5.8k a year. This virus is going to infect millions of people worldwide with an infection rate vastly higher than flu before a vaccine is ready in a year to a year and a half at the earliest. This is legit a big deal. Say wash your hands another 100 times, but this isnt some creation fabricated to tilt a political argument.

Very concerning that people arent understanding this is a pandemic, at the very earliest stages in the U.S. Recall President like 3 weeks ago was saying there were 15 cases in country and soon it would be 0, it would blow away with april warm weather. CDC projections are this is between 10x and 34x as deadly as flu, with a recent CDC projection model of 160 mill to 214 mill just in U.S. getting infected. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/cdcs-worst-case-coronavirus-model-210m-infected-1-7m-dead.html

9.8 wolverine 1 for $150 zap me invoice for my 2 books

Turtlemania 1

Airboy Comics v3-n5 aka #28 (Hillman; Jun 1956). Grade = 1.0 FR ow-wh. Price = $20. Amazing Adult Fantasy #12 (Marvel; May 1962). Grade = 0.5 PR (Incomplete) ow-wh. Price = $10.

29 ashcan lot for 290 space vixens 3-d zone 16 for 50 per pm

Wolverine #1 $210

National Comics 3 Skeleton Hand 2 per pm

bid $50. and a booty shake as a bonus

110

10 percent max discounts on the expensive books, the over 100 bucks each ones.

Detective 737 $12 Goon 1 Albatross $80 Lucifer 1 $10 Morning Glories 1 $10 Tank Girl 1/w cards (fine) $15 L'etonnant Spider-Man 24 $12 Marvel Spotlight 28, 29, Moon Knight 1 (readers) $20 at 20% off

Geez donut that is one way but i would go the quick and dirty route. Inside of a large show weekend i could from start to finish make a 5x to 10x profit, between Thursday and Sunday. I would not be bringing any of these books home. By monday i would be looking for new deal and you would have to remind me about this one as i would have moved on.

the original deal was the home run. the 900 for 4 boxes was not one i would jump at unless i had pressing need for those runs that minute but even that 10 times op cost one i dont see it as radically overpaying with the books found so far.

"Batman Harley Quinn 9.6 Detective Comics 850 9.8 Detective Comics 880 9.8 Catwoman 51 9.6 Catwoman 74 9.8" These are a few that op listed as found so far. If 900 for the 4 boxes of Batman/Tec related is radically overpaying, and it is 10 times what the op had to pay, but with the above books found so far, what is fair to you? Pull keys and ah covers, i am sure you could do that in 15 minutes. if you wanted to put a little effort you could trade in to mcs and get some credit for precodes, or you could just freecycle boxes for to be picked up free inside an hour total. is there a deal in last few weeks you would like to talk about that had more potential? to me it was a 1 in 1000 deal, but again, we all have different experiences, expectations.

Poster lives in florida and was talking about prepping for a show. Megacon is the big florida show in a few days so if this happens to be the show he is setting up for,or otherwise attending, I thought it would be easy to roll em boxes over to my booth is all. I just want to me helpful. Or healthful? All good, I thought we were having jovial banter. Congrats and best to all involved.