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Jaydogrules

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Everything posted by Jaydogrules

  1. "...it needs to be like the 10th highest film.." So then 1.5B to break even. And we are talking about the movie. -J.
  2. Isn't it funny how none of those "Cameron Whisperers" who, evidently, like to think they know more about Cameron's own balance sheet than he does, didn't start publicly calling him "wrong" about his own movie, until after it became clear the movie wouldn't touch 2B? -J.
  3. Somehow I suspect most people will still be taking Cameron at his word over the speculative musings of Forbes' resident fanboi. -J.
  4. I'm not taking about those movies. I'm talking about THIS one, and what your own quoted sources are saying. -J.
  5. Even if it's 350M , and the "threshold to profitability" is 1.5B, that's a 4.3x multiple (not 2.5x). The necessary multiple to break even remains basically the same regardless. -J.
  6. And again, no accountant is going to allow for the co-mingling of budgets since the pay outs of multiple profit participaters would be impacted. That would just be begging for a lawsuit. Which makes Boscos presumptions about the actual budget for THIS FILM (it's $460M, not $350M) particularly specious. -J.
  7. Happy holidays gents! I've started compiling the intiital data to (finally) uodate this list. While this is a labour's of love, it is still a labour.. Happy to do it, if there are still enough lurkers and followers of this very dynamic and unique market that would like to see how things stand now. So please, anyone that would like to see this list updated, go ahead and give me a reaction to this post. Five or more and I will put it together. -J..
  8. ...except nowhere here or anywhere does he say he is conflating the budgets of the movie with the others. Obviously, those movies will have their own reported budgets, no Hollywood bean counter (or any accountant worth a whit) in their right mind would do what you are proposing.), especially with the profit participation of Cameron, other producers and likely even some of the cast. In fact he makes it a point to NOT say this. Until or unless he says something definitive to the contrary, you should report what's in nearly ALL industry media - and that is 460M for this movie. You did the same thing with the aquaman and the GOTG 2 budgets. I appreciate your charts and input but you should try to at least report the data in a non-partisan manner, if you are going to do it, basing it on publicly available info and not your personal preferences/wish casting. -J.
  9. Except James Cameron himself has debunked this number, and I don't think it has been accurate since at least the early 2000s when the international / world marketplace became a larger factor. Even Mark Hughes at forbes put it at a "minimum" of 3x for Black Adam (although most industry observers that aren't fanbois put the multiple for that bomb higher than that). It's more like 3x on an absolute minimum to break even theatrically, and up to 4x-4.5x for a typical MCU film or something like avatar 2. You're also putting your thumb on the scale (again) by putting a lowball estimate of the budget for avatar 2. The number is 460M, not 350. -J.
  10. Even worse when you factor in the flop factor/ratio of the ones they actually followed through with. -J.
  11. Differences in budgets notwithstanding, it is noteworthy that avatar 2 has already made a significant amount of more money in 10 days than wakanda forever has made in SEVEN WEEKS (STILL not even at 800M). -J.
  12. If it's $460M budget (ridiculous) then $2B would be a 4.3X multiple of the production budget (people don't directly factor in P&A on the multiple, they bake it into the necessary multiple to pencil out a rough break even). Even in a best case scenario, I think it's safe to assume that most of these movies need a MINIMUM of 4X production these days just to break theatrically. Food for thought. -J.
  13. So now that James Cameron is on the record saying this needs to make 2 BILLION dollars to turn a profit, or a 5X multiple of its $400M budget, are people going to finally stop pretending that these movies with huge and even mid-level budgets and 2-2.5X multiples are "breaking even"? -J.
  14. You're right. Marvel chipping is considered a "production defect", and is not factored into the grade, at least not until about 7.0. Then maaaaybe it could hit the grade, but I can't think of too many instances where a 9.4 otherwise silver age book has marvel chipping. As for that "sale" on comicklink of that chipped up 4.0 with "white pages" for "78k".. Yeah. Sure guys. -J.
  15. Chapek may not have been the guy to greenlight all this nonsense but he was clearly the scapegoat and fall guy. Somebody needed to go and it wasn't going to be Kevin feige. I agree that the prior business model Disney has been using on these is obsolete. To think that this cost 2.5X what Venom did and will make 50M less is just pathetic. There is just no papering over how bad that is. They literally wrecked a billion dollar franchise because they caught some sad "feels". This will have to go down as one of the biggest unforced errors ever. -J.
  16. #notchallanoticket I called this months ago. And the pain is even worse when you factor in the $50M larger budget this one had- that's a $600M negative swing between the two movies all so the cast and crew could indulge in some group therapy. No wonder the CEO was fired shortly after the subpar numbers on this started coming in. -J.
  17. That is nice. Love dell'ottos "angry spidey" pieces. -J.
  18. https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com/article/weekend-box-office-results-wakanda-forever-leads-one-of-the-slowest-weekends-of-2022/ "Creative accounting is not going to change the narrative that this film is a theatrical failure." -J.
  19. Rotten tomatoes published an article this morning basically calling Dwayne out on his pathetic attempts at "creative accounting". Instead of leaking BS to a known industry shill site like deadline, he should have just taken the "L" with some grace. But that may be hard to do since the massive failure of this movie basically ended the DCEU as we know it. The straw that finally broke the camel's back, as it were. -J.