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About AnonymousAF15

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    Learning the Ropes

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  1. Looking for Marvel Western Keys Hi, I'm looking for Marvel westerns with first appearances. Here is my list: Kid Colt #1 Rawhide Kid 1 Two Gun kid 1 Outlaw Kid 1 Ringo Kid 1 (1954) Two Gun Western 5 (1950) Western Kid 1 (1954) Tex Taylor #1 (1948) Tim Holt #11 (1948) All Western Winner #2 Willing to look at most conditions, but generally without cover defacement (exception for Kid Colt #1). Willing to pay market rate plus a little extra as these are not super easy to find. Thanks!
  2. You are right. When I said +15% through the entire time period I over-stated. What I should have said was: It was +15% CAGR overall from 2002 to 2016. It was also +15% CAGR for most of the 5-year spans in-between. But for the five years ended 2014 the 5-ear CAGR varied from 5% to 13% depending on the grade (better for the lower grades in that time period). That's still a pretty great return - but less than the 15% I was quoting. (the 5-year CAGRS ending 2015 were +17% to +23%, so it corrected pretty fast)
  3. As an outsider just getting into this market I thought I would share: I ran an analysis on all the keys from the 1960s and looked at their 5-year annual returns since 2002 (first year with real data) at every grade level. I found some interesting insights I'm acting on, but thought I would publicly share some basic stuff about AF15 to get people on the same page: - AF15 has increased in value at every grade level at the same rate - so the ratio in price between a 4.0 and 9.0 has stayed basically flat the whole time. So there hasn't been an acceleration in the top or the bottom. Everything is increasing in tandem. This is what you would expect if there wasn't a big new source of supply (i.e., someone finds a bunch of 9.0s - that should change the price ratios). Since I don't have supply numbers over time I can't test this (does anyone have that?) - The 5-year CAGR (% increase in value per year) on AF15 across all grades from 2002 to present (data available) is +15% per year. That is a FANTASTIC return. And it has consistently been +15% for every grade level for every 5-year span available. That doesn't mean it will continue. It is also a pretty small data set. Given the correlation between the grades that's only 14 years of data ...Based on that if you believed that things would continue the way they are, you should be buying AF15s as fast as possible. If everyone realized this and started doing it the price would be driven up. So how high should you be willing to buy? If you think the OLD CAGR rate will hold, then it depends on how long you are willing to hold for. Let's assume the price last year was $100 (feel free multiple by whatever integer you like). Then the expected value over time will be (without bubble effects and without any change in the 5-year CAGR): 2017: $115 2018: $132 2019: $151 2020: $174 2021: $200 ... 2026: $400 2031: $800 (15%/year means a double every 5 years - which is nice and simple) So let's say you were planning to hold until 2031. And let's say you wanted to make a 10% return per year (VERY good). You think that it will sell for $800 in 2031. You will be holding for 14 years, so if you buy for $200 in 2017 (2x the 2016 price), your asset still makes you 4x in fourteen years - or a CAGR of 10.4% per year... I know a lot of people on here talk about quick flips, but as asset classes get more sophisticated quick flips stop working (at least consistently). And transaction costs kill you. So the only reason to buy an appreciating illiquid asset is if you plan to hold for a long time. And if you are planning to hold for a long time AND last year's prices are about right AND last year's prices will continue to increase at the rate they have been increasing for the last 16 years AND you are ready to hold for 14 years AND you want to make a 10% return per year (less transaction fees) - then 2x last year's prices are about right. If you want to hold longer - say 24 years, then you should be willing to spend even more. If you are willing to take a less than 10% return then you should be willing to spend more. If you think it will increase in value faster than 15%/year (based on last year's prices) then you should be willing to spend more... AND you have the additional positive impact of the value of passing on to next generation. If you pass down an asset like this to the next generation - they don't pay capital gains tax. That's a huge savings. So: The longer you want to hold the less crazy these prices should seem..... My 2-cents. Hope that was valuable.
  4. "Like your appearance. It was timed very interestingly." I'm sure I'm missing something with that comment? Is it because I started posting just after AF15 exploded in value? Or is there something else I'm missing? (and I'm not that out of the ordinary, am I?)
  5. I think you are right. But if I were selling a book and I wanted max dollars, and it was on the last day and the best offer was well below market value, and I wasn't particularly ethical, what would I do? Maybe something like this: 1- Bid over the current bid 2- If it doesn't automatically adjust, then stop and wait for someone to outbid you 3- If it automatically adjusts, look what it adjusts to. If it adjusts to the next level up "min bid" then over bid again If it adjusts to a different number, then realize they have hit their "cap" and stop It's enough that I will never bid my clearing price again on their system....
  6. Exactly. I think the min increase was $250
  7. Is that the answer? Displaying a comic - no matter what the method - will destroy it's value? How do museums display art? Seems like it's a problem that can be solved if one throws enough money at it.
  8. Sorry about the name. I originally only planned on posting once on the AF15 thread based on what I was planning to do as a newbie to collecting. It was meant as throw-away account. But I was too lazy to create a new account after I made this purchase. Original plan was just to buy a single AF15 to frame as art (and keep until I die). But three things happened: 1- AF15 got real expensive really fast 2- The money I was coming into got bigger 3- I got excited about the idea of an art "wall" rather than a single piece. Goal now is to have the 9 keys I care about (AF15, X1, FF1, H1, A1, JIM83, TOS39, TOS57, DD1). 2 down, 7 to go.... Was outbid at the last minute on A1, FF1 and JIM83 this week....
  9. Is the CGC holder enough? I feel like I would want more protection than that for a $40K+ book...
  10. What do you recommend for framing the high value books?
  11. Interesting you ask. I actually bid on two comics yesterday. For X-men #1 I paid my bid (which was $39560 or something when the previous bid earlier in the day was $18K or something). For the other - Tales of Suspense 57 - I paid $45 less than my bid. But in that case if someone wanted me to pay my full bid they would have had to outbid me. So in both cases I was bid as high as I could have gone without being outbid....
  12. X-men #1 was the comic. Sorry. I cross-posted from the "X-men #1 Club" thread and didn't do it very well.... I'm definitely set on displaying it. It seems pretty silly to drop $40K on a piece of art and then display a photocopy of that piece of art.... But I want to do it smart. Museums exist, so there must be a way to do this.
  13. How to best display high value comic books Just picked up the 9.0 on ComicLink for what I think was a good price (but still more than I have spent on just about anything else in my life that wasn't a car) Will post a picture when it arrives. It's my first comic book purchase since the 1990s. My plan is to put it on the wall as art. Do folks have suggestions for the best way to do that? I found these two resources using Google: Any reason to choose one over the other? Or is there something else I'm missing? (I know some people will say that any display is bad. I should put it in a safety deposit box or something. I won't be doing that. I got it so that it can be wall art. But I want to protect it the best way I can. I will be putting it somewhere that gets light, but no direct natural sunlight and very little natural light at all)
  14. Just picked up the 9.0 on ComicLink for what I think was a good price. I had a killer price until someone bid me all the way up to my walk away (but no higher). Makes me wonder if it was someone making sure I paid every cent I was willing.... But I'm still happy with it. Will post a picture when it arrives. It's my first comic book purchase since the 1990s. My plan is to put it on the wall as art. Do folks have suggestions for the best way to do that? I found these two resources using Google: Any reason to choose one over the other? (I may cross-post this somewhere on the boards that talks about displaying) Thanks,
  15. Tried to buy it. But someone jumped in at the last minute and bid $250 more for the win. My browser (or technology) was not fast enough....