AnonymousAF15

You are right. When I said +15% through the entire time period I over-stated. What I should have said was: It was +15% CAGR overall from 2002 to 2016. It was also +15% CAGR for most of the 5-year spans in-between. But for the five years ended 2014 the 5-ear CAGR varied from 5% to 13% depending on the grade (better for the lower grades in that time period). That's still a pretty great return - but less than the 15% I was quoting. (the 5-year CAGRS ending 2015 were +17% to +23%, so it corrected pretty fast)

As an outsider just getting into this market I thought I would share: I ran an analysis on all the keys from the 1960s and looked at their 5-year annual returns since 2002 (first year with real data) at every grade level. I found some interesting insights I'm acting on, but thought I would publicly share some basic stuff about AF15 to get people on the same page: - AF15 has increased in value at every grade level at the same rate - so the ratio in price between a 4.0 and 9.0 has stayed basically flat the whole time. So there hasn't been an acceleration in the top or the bottom. Everything is increasing in tandem. This is what you would expect if there wasn't a big new source of supply (i.e., someone finds a bunch of 9.0s - that should change the price ratios). Since I don't have supply numbers over time I can't test this (does anyone have that?) - The 5-year CAGR (% increase in value per year) on AF15 across all grades from 2002 to present (data available) is +15% per year. That is a FANTASTIC return. And it has consistently been +15% for every grade level for every 5-year span available. That doesn't mean it will continue. It is also a pretty small data set. Given the correlation between the grades that's only 14 years of data ...Based on that if you believed that things would continue the way they are, you should be buying AF15s as fast as possible. If everyone realized this and started doing it the price would be driven up. So how high should you be willing to buy? If you think the OLD CAGR rate will hold, then it depends on how long you are willing to hold for. Let's assume the price last year was $100 (feel free multiple by whatever integer you like). Then the expected value over time will be (without bubble effects and without any change in the 5-year CAGR): 2017: $115 2018: $132 2019: $151 2020: $174 2021: $200 ... 2026: $400 2031: $800 (15%/year means a double every 5 years - which is nice and simple) So let's say you were planning to hold until 2031. And let's say you wanted to make a 10% return per year (VERY good). You think that it will sell for $800 in 2031. You will be holding for 14 years, so if you buy for $200 in 2017 (2x the 2016 price), your asset still makes you 4x in fourteen years - or a CAGR of 10.4% per year... I know a lot of people on here talk about quick flips, but as asset classes get more sophisticated quick flips stop working (at least consistently). And transaction costs kill you. So the only reason to buy an appreciating illiquid asset is if you plan to hold for a long time. And if you are planning to hold for a long time AND last year's prices are about right AND last year's prices will continue to increase at the rate they have been increasing for the last 16 years AND you are ready to hold for 14 years AND you want to make a 10% return per year (less transaction fees) - then 2x last year's prices are about right. If you want to hold longer - say 24 years, then you should be willing to spend even more. If you are willing to take a less than 10% return then you should be willing to spend more. If you think it will increase in value faster than 15%/year (based on last year's prices) then you should be willing to spend more... AND you have the additional positive impact of the value of passing on to next generation. If you pass down an asset like this to the next generation - they don't pay capital gains tax. That's a huge savings. So: The longer you want to hold the less crazy these prices should seem..... My 2-cents. Hope that was valuable.

"Like your appearance. It was timed very interestingly." I'm sure I'm missing something with that comment? Is it because I started posting just after AF15 exploded in value? Or is there something else I'm missing? (and I'm not that out of the ordinary, am I?)

I think you are right. But if I were selling a book and I wanted max dollars, and it was on the last day and the best offer was well below market value, and I wasn't particularly ethical, what would I do? Maybe something like this: 1- Bid over the current bid 2- If it doesn't automatically adjust, then stop and wait for someone to outbid you 3- If it automatically adjusts, look what it adjusts to. If it adjusts to the next level up "min bid" then over bid again If it adjusts to a different number, then realize they have hit their "cap" and stop It's enough that I will never bid my clearing price again on their system....

Exactly. I think the min increase was $250

Is that the answer? Displaying a comic - no matter what the method - will destroy it's value? How do museums display art? Seems like it's a problem that can be solved if one throws enough money at it.

Sorry about the name. I originally only planned on posting once on the AF15 thread based on what I was planning to do as a newbie to collecting. It was meant as throw-away account. But I was too lazy to create a new account after I made this purchase. Original plan was just to buy a single AF15 to frame as art (and keep until I die). But three things happened: 1- AF15 got real expensive really fast 2- The money I was coming into got bigger 3- I got excited about the idea of an art "wall" rather than a single piece. Goal now is to have the 9 keys I care about (AF15, X1, FF1, H1, A1, JIM83, TOS39, TOS57, DD1). 2 down, 7 to go.... Was outbid at the last minute on A1, FF1 and JIM83 this week....

Is the CGC holder enough? I feel like I would want more protection than that for a $40K+ book...

What do you recommend for framing the high value books?

Interesting you ask. I actually bid on two comics yesterday. For X-men #1 I paid my bid (which was $39560 or something when the previous bid earlier in the day was $18K or something). For the other - Tales of Suspense 57 - I paid $45 less than my bid. But in that case if someone wanted me to pay my full bid they would have had to outbid me. So in both cases I was bid as high as I could have gone without being outbid....

X-men #1 was the comic. Sorry. I cross-posted from the "X-men #1 Club" thread and didn't do it very well.... I'm definitely set on displaying it. It seems pretty silly to drop $40K on a piece of art and then display a photocopy of that piece of art.... But I want to do it smart. Museums exist, so there must be a way to do this.

How to best display high value comic books Just picked up the 9.0 on ComicLink for what I think was a good price (but still more than I have spent on just about anything else in my life that wasn't a car) Will post a picture when it arrives. It's my first comic book purchase since the 1990s. My plan is to put it on the wall as art. Do folks have suggestions for the best way to do that? I found these two resources using Google: http://www.thecollectorsresource.com/ http://www.gweedoscomics.com/cgc-graded-frames/ Any reason to choose one over the other? Or is there something else I'm missing? (I know some people will say that any display is bad. I should put it in a safety deposit box or something. I won't be doing that. I got it so that it can be wall art. But I want to protect it the best way I can. I will be putting it somewhere that gets light, but no direct natural sunlight and very little natural light at all)

Just picked up the 9.0 on ComicLink for what I think was a good price. I had a killer price until someone bid me all the way up to my walk away (but no higher). Makes me wonder if it was someone making sure I paid every cent I was willing.... But I'm still happy with it. Will post a picture when it arrives. It's my first comic book purchase since the 1990s. My plan is to put it on the wall as art. Do folks have suggestions for the best way to do that? I found these two resources using Google: http://www.thecollectorsresource.com/ http://www.gweedoscomics.com/cgc-graded-frames/ Any reason to choose one over the other? (I may cross-post this somewhere on the boards that talks about displaying) Thanks,

Tried to buy it. But someone jumped in at the last minute and bid $250 more for the win. My browser (or technology) was not fast enough....

Comic Link is selling an FF #1 graded by PGX (7.5): http://www.comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?back=%2FAuctions%2Fallsub.asp%3FFocused%3D1%26id%3D3906%26FROM%3D%26TO%3D%23Item_1179978&id=1179978#detail It looks to me like the right side is trimmed. But the label says not modified. Is that because PGX made a mistake? Thanks.

Likely my only post, but I thought my story might be interesting for folks here. My story: I got into collecting comics when I was a kid in the 80s (first comics were the Secret Wars Series). I was exclusively Marvel. I was a middle-class kid with paper routes, but I spent almost all the money I made on comics. I had all the Avengers after about #100 (including West Coast). When I thought I new comic was worth collecting, I would get multiple copies. I would go to garage sales and flea markets looking for old comics. My best finds were a tattered copy of Avengers #4, and pretty good condition copies of Avengers #16 and Spectacular Spiderman #1. I stopped collecting at some point in high school, but still kept all of those old comics (in boxes in my parent's house to this day). Flashforward to a few weeks ago. I have done very well for myself financially. Between my wife and I, we bring in more than $500K/year. We still live a pretty middle class life (albeit with more travel than most people, and a better view from our condo - which we rent). When I paid off my student debt I made a single "extravagant" purchase to commemorate the moment. In the next few months I expect to have another significant financial event happen (one time payment of low 7-figures). Even though we do well, this will be a very big event in our life - comparable to finishing the student debt - and the culmination of a lot of very hard work (and luck) over a large number of years. My wife suggested I buy something the same way I did with my student debt. The issue is we don't really want for anything, and we don't have extravagant tastes. Until recently I was driving a 15 year old car. I enjoy wine, but do not appreciate expensive wine. So my wife suggested maybe we get a piece of unique art? (We just have your photography on the walls) I started explore art, but I've never loved it. And I assume my lack of "caring" combined with ignorance would likely just take us to the cleaners. I'm fine with prints. Then I read an article in "The National Post" (a Canadian newspaper) about a month ago. It was about collecting "blue chip" comic books as an investment. I had my idea. Since I read only Marvel growing up, golden age has no appeal to me. I was drawn instantly to AF15. For a variety of reasons: - The most valuable book of the era - Spiderman is the most iconic hero of the era - and the example I always used growing up of a "good construction" protagonist (vs. those silly DC characters) - His first appearance is not in a #1. So it's a little esoteric for non-comic nerds. But obvious value for those in the know Unlike art, I am interested in comics. I could dive into this to make sure I wasn't taken to the cleaners (and the act of buying will be FUN. Unlike a traditional piece of art). My original thought was I would pick up "rough shape" copy for about $10,000, and put it on the wall in a nice museum-quality frame. It would be a great talking piece and a nice thig to commemorate the financial win-fall. I don't really care about future value of the issue. I can't imagine being in financial straights again and needed to sell. So it will just sit on my wall for the rest of my life to remember that moment. Hopefully I get my kids to care about comics enough that at least one of them will want it to remember their dad when I pass away. And , while I want to get my kids set up for success, I have no interest in giving them enough money that they never work. So if they don't want it and I die, it likely just gets sold at an estate auction and the money goes to a charity, That said, I don't want to feel dumb by buying something now that drops in value next year (if nothing else I will be made fun of by my wife. And the "cache" of having it on my wall goes down) So I started digging in. My take as an outsider: - There are a LOT of copies of AF15 - But there are VERY few copies at 8.0+ - Given the "super hero craze" right now, we are likely at a natural high - I expect super heroes to last for a long time. Disney owns Marvel and they are very good custodians. They are in it for the long haul - But it doesn't mean it won't wane. It will. Lion King is still around, but it's not as popular as at it's peak - That said, while minor characters may come and go, I expect Spiderman (and Superman and Batman), to continue to sit at the top of the hierarchy - My understanding is these blockbusters do very well internationally. So I think there is a bunch of middle class kids in China who are growing up with superheroes. Their parents have no attachment to Captain America and Spiderman - but they do. When those kids grow up, they will have nostalgia for these characters the same way Americans my age do now - The open question is, will they have nostalgia for the actual COMIC BOOKS or just the characters they see on the screen. It feels like they will still want to origin. But I could be totally wrong about that. Where I have landed: If I am going to buy this book, I think my original plan of getting a tattered $10K copy doesn't make sense. It wouldn't look great on the wall, and I'm not convinced it will hold it's value. I am more confident that an 8+ will hold the value (very limited supply and increasing demand over time). The question is, am I willing to spend $100K+ to get a copy that nice. I think I am, but I go back and forth on making this purchase. I don't like that prices have spiked in the last few months (what terrible timing to start thinking about this!) But again: I don't think short term fluctuations matter that much to me. I also feel that if I want to spend little more than $100K for an 8.0 I better go fast. I don't like being in a rush. (Especially as I need to get my wife used to the idea. $10K she is okay with. $100K.... We will see....) This board has been helpful to me as I think through the decision. Thank you. I just thought I would return the favor a little to give you insight into what a new buyer in this market might be thinking. I don't think I will buy that 8.0 going up for auction next month (my "financial event" won't have gone through before the auction is done - and there is NO WAY my wife will let me spend before that deal is 100% complete and the money is in the bank), but I will be watching it very closely. I expect I will go to some comic conventions this summer for the first time since I was about 14 - mainly to see what different grading levels look like in person. Then I need to make a call on if I splurge on the next 8.0 that comes up, or I settle for a nice-looking 5 or 6 that may not hold it's value as well - but will be a lot less money just sitting on the wall.... If nothing else I am enjoying the process, and it's been fun to talk about with close friends (and generally only close friends who are or were comic nerds) The other two thoughts I had was building a small collection (likely at lower grades). I was thinking either: (1) First appearances of the silver age bunch (both valuable ones like Ironman and The Hulk - but also less valuable like The Inhumans, Hawkeye and Mockingbird) (2) First meetings between Spiderman and different folks What's interesting is that I am pretty sure I could get my entire list of either #1 or #2 at say 6.0 gradings and pay less than a single copy of AF15 at an 8.0..... Thanks again. I will continue to read this thread daily until I fish or cut bait.