valiantman

1) Overstreet is a gateway drug. You don't get to collecting key first appearances in CGC slabs without flipping through Overstreet. If some people can get to CGC keys without buying Overstreet, that improves my point. 2) Agreed. You can lose a ton of money in comics. I believe you'll lose less if you are holding the first appearances of the greatest characters of all time. "Just Buy Keys" isn't a new topic worthy of another discussion. This topic says that there are keys for which the high CGC census numbers and all the remaining raw copies in the world still aren't enough, and they are specifically the first appearances of the pop culture big names... even common books like Hulk #181. That's not a normal position to take on this forum.

That's not what I'm saying... sorry if I gave that impression. I'm saying the gap between the first appearances of major characters from all eras (pre-1992, anyway) will be a ridiculously wide gap compared to the other books in those eras. I mean the Top 10 or 20 comic book first appearances all-time, not 10 to 20 by era. Just 10 to 20 books total (1938-1991) will completely separate from their peers...Action #1 and Detective #27 already left the others from the 1930s and 1940s behind. AF #15 has already left the other 1960s books far behind it, with the exception of Hulk #1, which is also a Top 5 overall character. Hulk 181 will leave all other 1970s books farther behind it. No, Hulk #181 won't catch Golden Age key books, but other 1970s books won't shrink the widening gap on Hulk #181 unless they have a first appearance that can rival it. The next top all-time characters are Golden Age, and they are separating from their peers... Captain America, Wonder Woman, even Archie. Then the Silver Age big-but-not-as-big names, first appearances are making wider gaps, Iron Man, Thor, even Flash Barry Allen. The exact order of Top 6 or 8 or 12 isn't important, because these characters will have individual surges and declines in popularity, as you mentioned, but when there is a downtime for Flash, it still won't shrink the gap between Showcase #4 and other Flash appearances. Books like ASM #300 aren't first appearances for Top 10 all-time characters, but the book will continue to separate from the other 1980s books, with the exception of TMNT #1 because of the big name first appearance in that one. Too many words in my post again, but what I am saying is that we have kept our keys and non-keys too close in price. The gap will widen greatly. The CGC census won't matter. Mid-grade Hulk #181 will be $10,000. It won't approach Silver or Golden Age keys, but the first full appearance of Wolverine will hold more value than many much older books. It will completely overshadow all but the best first appearances of the 1970s. Wolverine can decline in popularity and the world might go crazy for Spider-Harley Gwenpool, and Hulk #181 might even fall in value, but the price gap will stay ridiculously wide (wider than today) between Hulk #181 and the other books of its era.

The caveat is that many buyers before CGC bought trimmed, color-touched, or otherwise altered books without knowing it. Some believe that an unrestored book sold to them as NM would be 9.4 if they had it graded. It might be 8.5. How many first-time CGC submitters get a rude awakening? All those decades of pre-CGC raw high grade universal keys... may not be. There's absolutely a reason that some (not all) dealers refuse to use CGC. It's because they would lose money. Overgrading (and manipulating) raw books has always been the most profitable model. It took CGC's arrival to stop/slow some of the worst offenders.

Your argument doesn't work because the existing comic ages are defined by years. Your example of 1820 doesn't work because 1952 is Golden Age whether you're talking about superheroes, pre-code horror, westerns, or ducks. They're all Golden Age, despite extremely different characteristics. 1980s comics are definitely varied, but they're all 1980s comics.

Easy. 1980s comics 1990s comics Those are the names. Forget ages. They're over.

These numbers are proving my point. Solid mid-grade Action 1 and Detective 27 are $1,000,000 comics. A solid mid-grade AF #15 is (or soon will be) a $100,000 comic. A solid mid-grade Hulk #181 will be a $10,000 comic. A solid mid-grade ASM #300 will be a $1,000 comic. The number of existing copies (including raws) tracks well with these prices.

Gotcha. In terms of decades of popularity, the big 3 are well-known, and I think we can also identify the big 5. Superman = first appearance too expensive Batman = first appearance too expensive Spider-man = first appearance too expensive Hulk = first appearance too expensive Wolverine = first appearance is becoming too expensive The Big 5 are too expensive... or they will be... as soon as Hulk #181 settles. I think the Big 10 and Big 20 will be too.

There are lots of copies of key issues like Hulk #181 and ASM #300 on the CGC census. People have spent about 15 years on this very board talking about how that's plenty. How it's more supply than demand. I say that it's not enough. Thanks for chiming in.

Okeydoke. We've both given our examples. I think people can judge for themselves.

I know for a fact I've seen multiple pictures on these very forums of collectors with at least a dozen raw copies in their collections, many high grade. To suggest even the majority of copies are slabbed is probably an overestimation of CGC's impact. Since this is my topic, I feel like I should point out that no one has suggested that the majority of copies are slabbed.

But coins are an everyday use item, passing through the hands...still...of tens of millions of people in the US, and billions around the world, every day. Plus, there are all those Halloween costumes for Washington, Kennedy, and Lincoln (who always walks the other way down the sidewalk).

No argument, but 20 years of CGC slabbing has only gotten us to 10,000. How quickly will we get to 20,000?



 You even used the same letters... ASM, SAM.

Possibly, but there are tens of millions of slabs for coins... and that doesn't seem to stop the coinies who don't need no stinkin' plastic. We're nowhere near tens of millions of slabs for comics... and coins aren't exactly a pop culture phenomenon.