TMNT #1 Club 19 19

[Ryan.]

Movie hype? 

[I am not Glenda]

1 hour ago, Subby1938 said:

Plenty of these coming to market . It worries me people want to cash in . If the book has staying power why not hold ? It’s rare enough and high grade enough ? This whole thing really creeps me out . Two years ago I paid 5K for 9.0. The increase in not just this , in all keys is staggering and something is off to me . My two cents 

"in all keys is staggering and something is off to me" Same it's fun to watch, fun to see the increase but 100% everything is going to high to fast imho.

[lou_fine]

53 minutes ago, Ryan. said:

Movie hype? 

Yes, my bad as you are definitely right since anything at all that's related to Seth Rogen would be  

[Hulksdaddy1]

1 hour ago, lou_fine said:

I believe the reason you are puzzled as to why collectors and especially speculators are not holding onto this book, is that unlike you, they probably know full well that this book is nowhere close to being rare at all.  

Although there is indeed a lot of speculative demand for this book due to movie hype and the like, we all know historically what tends to happen with movie and TV realted hype books longer run.  Especially for ones where there are already almost 400 graded copies in CGC 9.0 high grade and above or what amounts to an huge chunk of the entire print run, with no doubt still a good number of raw copies out there that has yet to touch the hands of a CGC grader.  

What movie? None that I'm aware of. Ah, Rogan. That should hurt sales LOL

 

As a relatively "newer" book, yeah, there'll be higher grades than say, an AF15. However, there are less TMNT1 printed than AF15 graded, so yeah, it is pretty rare. Plus, of the original print run, no doubt more than a few of them are gone forever. No one knows for sure, but I'd think it's reasonable to say 1/4 of the run is no longer around.

 

People cash out when they see stuff selling for big numbers. Happens all the time. During AF15's climb a few years ago, they were everywhere for sale. Hot stuff brings out buyers AND sellers.

Edited February 15, 2021 by Hulksdaddy1

[TMNT]

Just now, Hulksdaddy1 said:

What movie? None that I'm aware of.

Seth began talks to have his production company get involved with an animated movie... But nothing has come of it

[Hulksdaddy1]

1 minute ago, TMNT said:

Seth began talks to have his production company get involved with an animated movie... But nothing has come of it

Oh,ok. Guess he can't mess up an animated movie too much, if it comes to fruitiion.

[Ryan.]

I don't think the run up on prices over the last year or so has much to do with animated movie spec. 

[Subby1938]

2 hours ago, Hulksdaddy1 said:

What movie? None that I'm aware of. Ah, Rogan. That should hurt sales LOL

 

As a relatively "newer" book, yeah, there'll be higher grades than say, an AF15. However, there are less TMNT1 printed than AF15 graded, so yeah, it is pretty rare. Plus, of the original print run, no doubt more than a few of them are gone forever. No one knows for sure, but I'd think it's reasonable to say 1/4 of the run is no longer around.

 

People cash out when they see stuff selling for big numbers. Happens all the time. During AF15's climb a few years ago, they were everywhere for sale. Hot stuff brings out buyers AND sellers.

I agree but you don’t see golden age stuff dumped like this or silver/bronze age . Obviously if a few thousand dollars turned into tens of thousands I’m out  and I’d buy something more viable to hold onto but it’s still puzzling . I’m now watching sports cards and super hero cards breaking thousands upon thousands and the last time  I checked most people in North America have hit a wall economically during Covid. This is very bizarre 

[lou_fine]

29 minutes ago, Ryan. said:

I don't think the run up on prices over the last year or so has much to do with animated movie spec. 

Wow, you are most definitely right on the mark here once again as I am in total agreement with you on your point here, especially since movie related hype is usally not long lasting and tends to have a relatively short shelf life.  

From ny point of view, the big run up on TMNT 1 prices all began with this perfectly executed, well times, and very high profile supposed auction "sale" of this CGC 9.8 graded copy of TMNT 1 for $90K when the book had been mired in a mid to high $30K funk for the previous year or so:

https://comics.ha.com/itm/modern-age-1980-present-/teenage-mutant-ninja-turtles-1-mirage-studios-1984-cgc-nm-mt-98-white-pages/a/7211-91091.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515

 

This very high profile $90K sale immediately jump started the entire early TMNT market with the CGC 9.8 graded copies of TMNT 1 rocketing right into the $50+ price range, with the "buyer" of this $90K copy then being able to successfully flip it out for a whopping $59K in a very low profile non-auction format sale in a few short months after that, no doubt along with some other very early TMNT books which they might have had.  

[Hulksdaddy1]

7 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

"successfully flip it out for a whopping $59K in a very low profile non-auction format sale in a few short months after that, no doubt along with some other very early TMNT books which they might have had.  "

Link?

[lou_fine]

1 hour ago, Hulksdaddy1 said:

1 hour ago, lou_fine said:

"successfully flip it out for a whopping $59K in a very low profile non-auction format sale in a few short months after that,  "

Link?

I guess you must have missed it since there were a few very high dollar value sales talked about back on Page 118 to 120 of this very thread discussing some rather manipulative sales on eBay and I believe one on CL that was never ever consumated in the end.

As for the subsequent $59K sale of the HA $90K CGC 9.8 graded copy of TMNT 1, here you go:

https://www.comicconnect.com/item/877988?tzf=1

 

[Subby1938]

Wow that would do it .... after this a frenzy starts and FOMO sets in and the rest is history . It wasn’t just issue 1 that bumped up . Look at 2,3,4 variants of and TMNT adventures 1. They all sell for quadrupole what they did few years ago. I just hope for the fans and collectors out there people don’t get hurt financially if this stuff falls back down to earth . Many in the card industry said an imminent crash is coming and we all went through these in 90s. I buy what I love and some of it is expensive but I don’t “ invest “ in collectsbles . I feed OCD more than anything else lol. 

[lou_fine]

18 minutes ago, Subby1938 said:

Wow that would do it .... after this a frenzy starts and FOMO sets in and the rest is history . It wasn’t just issue 1 that bumped up . Look at 2,3,4 variants of and TMNT adventures 1. They all sell for quadrupole what they did few years ago.

Well, if you can manipulate people into paying almost $500 a pop for Game Stop when it was trading for under $20 less than a month earlier, I don't see why you can't do the same thing with the early TMNT market through some supposedly well timed and well orchestrated "sales" done over a period of time.  

 

18 minutes ago, Subby1938 said:

I just hope for the fans and collectors out there people don’t get hurt financially if this stuff falls back down to earth.

Shall we take a survey of the so-called investors who piled in and couldn't run fast enough to pay over $300 a pop for Game Stop shares now that it is trading for only about $50 a share?  

Nothing more than the old classic pump and dump game that's been in play for centuries now whereby this version of Robin Hood robs from the poor to give to the rich.    

Edited February 15, 2021 by lou_fine

[I am not Glenda]

TMNT like almost all collectables ( toys, comics, cards) are at an insane rate of increase right now, I think we can all agree the current Pandemic has had a huge impact in terms of where people are spending their dollars( be it relief checks or just money that would have been used for vacation and the like) There is no doubt in my mind everything is going to come back down ( in the case of items like X force Deadpool cards) they will come down a lot. But the fact is TMNT  was a big book before the 90k BS sale & before the Pandemic ( 30/35k made it by far the king of modern era books) & its going to be just fine as the worldwide TMNT franchise continues to be HUGE and is dead center in the right demographic age group that it will continue to be make it a big balls book for decades to come.

Edited February 15, 2021 by I am not Glenda

[GM8]

Oh Lou, there you go again....

You are sooo right. If you had bought a 9.8 1st print on 8/4/2011 for $22,752 you would have learned that pump and dump game all too well when another one sold for $17,925 on 11/15/2012! Don't these whipper-snappers ever learn?! 

[Ryan.]

Those with deep pockets who are buying in to collectibles at high prices right now, whether it be TMNT 1 or Jordan RCs or sealed Pokémon boxes, can afford to hold out if and when the crash comes. So while Deadpool trading cards probably will go back to being worthless eventually, the type of buyer spending $100k on a comic is also the least likely to panic sell. 

[pubmonkey]

1 hour ago, GM8 said:

Oh Lou, there you go again....

..and again...and again... 

23 hours ago, GM8 said:

3 listings for high grade 1st prints:

Comic link has a 9.4 already at auction, $25K bid so far. Last one ended at $35.9K. Where will this one?

https://www.comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?back=%2FSEARCH_ADV.ASP%3Fall%3Dy%26TITLE%3Dteenage%2Bmutant%2Bninja%2Bturtles%26TITLEOPT%3DALL%26ISSUE%3D1%26Condition%3D%26ConditionTo%3D%26CensusRank%3D%26SearchPageQuality%3D%26Pedigree%3D%26PRICEF%3D%26PRICET%3D%26DESCRIPTION%3D%26DESCRIPTIONOPT%3DALL%26SearchRemarks%3D%26SearchCGC%3D%26EXCLUDE%3D%26CATEGORIES%3D-1%26WCATEGORIES%3D-1%26SORT%3DNEW%26_where_forsale%3Dy%26_where_auctions%3Dy%26x%3D47%26y%3D18%26where_auctions%3Dy%23Item_1462321&id=1462321&itemType=0

Two 9.6's upcoming. One at Heritage starting March 12th:

https://comics.ha.com/itm/modern-age-1980-present-/teenage-mutant-ninja-turtles-1-mirage-studios-1984-cgc-nm-96-white-pages/p/7242-51001.s

The other at Comic Connect starting March 22nd:

https://www.comicconnect.com/item/901543

Thanks for this. They will be popcorn moments for sure

[I am not Glenda]

54 minutes ago, Ryan. said:

Those with deep pockets who are buying in to collectibles at high prices right now, whether it be TMNT 1 or Jordan RCs or sealed Pokémon boxes, can afford to hold out if and when the crash comes. So while Deadpool trading cards probably will go back to being worthless eventually, the type of buyer spending $100k on a comic is also the least likely to panic sell. 

No doubt, however, I suspect there are quite a few % of buyers that will no be able to hold on to those Zion cards they paid 20k for and are now worth 5k because he sprained his ankle. The spectrum of speculation across the board right now ( ie Deadpool cards) is just mind boggling to me. If you tell me you over paid for a AF 15 by a few grand I think your just fine, if you tell me you paid $2200 for TMNT Adventures 1 or 25k for the variant of Miles first app, regardless of your financial situation your a braver man then me. ( I love Miles and can't wait to see him in movies but these instant collectable items ( comics, cards, toys) are nothing new) & have a negative historic trend. Should be fun to see where it all lands. On a side note I 100% hope I am wrong about the future, having people get burned is not good for any hobby.

 

Edited February 15, 2021 by I am not Glenda

[Ryan.]

There's definitely a difference between a modern variant and a blue chip key. I think some people conflate the entirety of the collectibles market as a singular concept. 

[TMNT]

On 12/11/2020 at 7:23 AM, GM8 said:

 

But hold the phones. The SS 9.0 sold for $45,600?! Holy pepperoni pizza. The last SS 9.0 sold for $14.4K on 5/20/20, that's a 217% increase.

https://comics.ha.com/itm/modern-age-1980-present-/teenage-mutant-ninja-turtles-1-signature-series-mirage-studios-1984-cgc-vf-nm-90-white-pages/a/40162-83010.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515

Well, roughly a month later that same copy now has a BIN of 55K.