Batman #428 CGC 9.8 How much would it cost my bank? 1 1

[Boozad]

[RockMyAmadeus]

There you go!

[Brandon Shepherd]

I came across this thread searching for “Batman #428 CGC 9.8 Value” on Google. I’m happy to say I just got one for less than some of the prices mentioned on page one of this thread, from 2009. 
 

Also, what a difference in census numbers a decade makes.

[Gatsby77]

Well - and the rectcons that made the book irrelevant (i.e., that both Robin and Jason Todd are back).

[Brandon Shepherd]

14 hours ago, Gatsby77 said:

Well - and the rectcons that made the book irrelevant (i.e., that both Robin and Jason Todd are back).

A few years ago I began the project of reading every Batman comic and tpb I have from the mid eighties to the New 52. I made it to the end of No Man’s Land last year. I’m starting back up again and anxious to get to Jason’s return as Red Hood. I didn’t care for his return in the mid 2000s but I want to give it another chance and see.

Edited November 14, 2019 by Brandon Shepherd

[Andthen]

I was on a road trip with my dad as a kid and I passed 429 up for another book. 

[Brandon Shepherd]

On 11/14/2019 at 11:53 PM, Andthen said:

I was on a road trip with my dad as a kid and I passed 429 up for another book. 

What book did you end up getting?

[Andthen]

I think a Silver surfer or an X-Men. Not sure but it was one of the two. 

[RockMyAmadeus]

53 minutes ago, Andthen said:

I think a Silver surfer or an X-Men. Not sure but it was one of the two. 

Silver Surfer would have been around #18-19, which featured fantastic Ron Lim art, and a rather underrated In-Betweener saga.

X-Men would have been around Inferno, which...as fair as I can be...was a cluster. 

[the blob]

On 11/10/2019 at 7:43 PM, Brandon Shepherd said:

I came across this thread searching for “Batman #428 CGC 9.8 Value” on Google. I’m happy to say I just got one for less than some of the prices mentioned on page one of this thread, from 2009. 
 

Also, what a difference in census numbers a decade makes.

The notion that there would continue to be only 10 9.8s of a relatively common late 80s batman book was absurd. This wasn't an indie or a failing title.

[Brandon Shepherd]

1 hour ago, the blob said:

The notion that there would continue to be only 10 9.8s of a relatively common late 80s batman book was absurd. This wasn't an indie or a failing title.

This is true. The passage of time and the practice of pressing will greatly impact the census for books like Batman #428.

[RockMyAmadeus]

10 hours ago, the blob said:

The notion that there would continue to be only 10 9.8s of a relatively common late 80s batman book was absurd. This wasn't an indie or a failing title.

Eh. You're looking at it with a 2019 perspective, and I don't think anyone said that. In 2009, no one really had any idea what existed, or what would show up, especially as it relates to the modern market, which had just begun to be subbed. I've said...since the first day I joined...that the census will absolutely expand, for virtually everything. What we didn't know in 2009...you included...was how and why.

2009 was prior to the explosion in pressing, particularly self-pressing. I suspect that a good 50% OR MORE of all "tough" 9.8s (and this book qualifies) would not have been 9.8s without a press. There are still only 147 9.8 and 15 SS 9.8 copies on the census. For relativity's sake, ASM #300...which came out 7 months prior...has 1006 and 226...the latter of which stands a good chance of increasing 50% or more once the dust settles from the McFarlane signing.

Batman #428 is relatively common...relative to concurrent books. But it was not printed in any exceptional numbers, which is why it went from 75 cents in late September of 1988 to $75 by July/August of 1989. Batman #436, on the other hand, can be had by the fistfuls...but is STILL a tough book in 9.8.

All it would take would be for, say, Harley Quinn levels of popularity for the book, or Deadpool, to drive it over $1,000 without any hiccups...and you won't see floods of copies show up, just like you didn't see floods of ASM #301s. But the likelihood of that is very little at this time.

[the blob]

In 2009 I would have assumed less than 5% of bona fide 9.8 candidates had been submitted, so 10 could be 100 or 200 in no time with a $300 incentive. How many are there now?

[RockMyAmadeus]

1 hour ago, the blob said:

In 2009 I would have assumed less than 5% of bona fide 9.8 candidates had been submitted, so 10 could be 100 or 200 in no time with a $300 incentive. How many are there now?

 

2 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

There are still only 147 9.8 and 15 SS 9.8 copies on the census.

 

[the blob]

2 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

 

 

147 + 15 + 9.8s from the other guys sound like plenty, particularly now as it is worth like $50 less than 10 years ago...

My 100-200 estimate was not off.

9.4 for under $25, ouch:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Batman-428-CGC-9-4-NM-Death-of-Robin/202782010615?hash=item2f36bfecf7:g:nMwAAOSwVYBdgs4L

I never understood why folks thought census numbers back then were reflective of much.

I have to wonder how many collectors are like me and have never slabbed a book? (although I'm on the cusp of doing it...). 25-30,000 comics and never.

 

[the blob]

That 9.6ses don't do so well may limit submissions too:

$25 (from the other company):

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Batman-428-Holiday-1988-DC-White-Cbsc-9-6-CGC-Universal-Grade-NM/392569525083?epid=85360914&hash=item5b66f7935b:g:qDQAAOSwvJVd5xpA

$41 (from cgc):

https://www.ebay.com/itm/BATMAN-428-CGC-9-6-COVER-Robin-Jason-Todd-Death-In-The-Family/163943195980?hash=item262bc6a54c:g:fWAAAOSwZy1dzHMf

most of the cgc ones do better than that though

never understood why this cover didn't do better:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Batman-399-CGC-9-6-White-Pages-DC-Comics-1986-/383268550983?hash=item593c95f947%3Ag%3AMQMAAOSw7UBdzu2x&nma=true&si=k5rBGBi%2BuujbAIA%2FqNJ8cW9pcBQ%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

[Gatsby77]

10 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

Eh. You're looking at it with a 2019 perspective, and I don't think anyone said that. In 2009, no one really had any idea what existed, or what would show up, especially as it relates to the modern market, which had just begun to be subbed. I've said...since the first day I joined...that the census will absolutely expand, for virtually everything. What we didn't know in 2009...you included...was how and why.

2009 was prior to the explosion in pressing, particularly self-pressing. I suspect that a good 50% OR MORE of all "tough" 9.8s (and this book qualifies) would not have been 9.8s without a press. There are still only 147 9.8 and 15 SS 9.8 copies on the census. For relativity's sake, ASM #300...which came out 7 months prior...has 1006 and 226...the latter of which stands a good chance of increasing 50% or more once the dust settles from the McFarlane signing.

Batman #428 is relatively common...relative to concurrent books. But it was not printed in any exceptional numbers, which is why it went from 75 cents in late September of 1988 to $75 by July/August of 1989. Batman #436, on the other hand, can be had by the fistfuls...but is STILL a tough book in 9.8.

All it would take would be for, say, Harley Quinn levels of popularity for the book, or Deadpool, to drive it over $1,000 without any hiccups...and you won't see floods of copies show up, just like you didn't see floods of ASM #301s. But the likelihood of that is very little at this time.

No.

You've been wrong about the long-term potential, rarity, and pricing on this book for ~12 years now. Since our discussions over on Whet's Lyria board, when you said I'd never be able to find a 9.8 for $150 (I've bought three at that price, and will note the last GPA sale notched $180).

It was highly collected *at the time* and also skyrocketed instantly, which meant more copies were saved from the jump, tough black cover or not. There are still *far* more copies out there remaining to be slabbed, if people cared to do so.

But it also ceased to be relevant the moment Tim Drake became Robin.

See also Harbinger 1 in 9.8, where you once went to war with me over my prediction that we'd see a solid 250 9.8s of that book the day the movie was released. There are now more than 400, with any potential film still at least 3 years away.

[RockMyAmadeus]

10 hours ago, Gatsby77 said:

No.

You've been wrong about the long-term potential, rarity, and pricing on this book for ~12 years now. Since our discussions over on Whet's Lyria board, when you said I'd never be able to find a 9.8 for $150 (I've bought three at that price, and will note the last GPA sale notched $180).

Alright. So, you've made your claim...let's see how the numbers stack up against it.

Batman #428 has only 147 copies on the census in 9.8 Universal. Let's set aside SS for the sake of the argument, and just focus on blue label numbers. Let's compare the census numbers of that book with three other books: Batman Adventures #12, Harbinger #1, and New Mutants #98.

From January of 2009 to December of 2019....just shy of 11 years...the following submissions were recorded on the census for these four books in 9.8 Universal:

Batman #428 - Jan 2009: 13. Dec 2019: 147

Batman Adventures #12 - Jan 2009: 3. Dec 2019: 796

Harbinger #1 - Jan 2009: 21. Dec 2019: 382

New Mutants #98 - Jan 2009: 218. Dec 2019: 3018

So, what do those numbers tell us...? 

That of those four, Batman #428 in 9.8 has had the least amount of submissions in the last 11 years, despite being "worth submitting."

Do you know what Batman #428 in 9.8 has never done...? Sold for less than it's worth to submit. And, the record low...$84...was hit once in 2009 and once in 2010.

And of the 291 sales of 9.8 Batman #428s since GPA began, the book has sold for $150 or less a mere 13 times....less than 5% of all sales of 9.8s...and half of those sales go back nearly a decade. And, in fact, of those 13 sales at $150 or below, 8 of them were AT $150...and was my original 12 year old comment "$150 or lower" or "lower than $150"...? Do you know...? Because if it was the latter, then that means that, of the 291 that a 9.8 Universal Batman #428 has sold since GPA started keeping records, only 5 of them...less than 2% of all sales of this book in this grade...has sold for less than $150.

Quite the impressive feat.

And, finally...in 2019, we've seen the most sales of Batman #428 in 9.8 ever...and still no sales at or below $150. I mean, I'm with you! I'm waiting for that sub $150 purchase, too!

10 hours ago, Gatsby77 said:

It was highly collected *at the time* and also skyrocketed instantly, which meant more copies were saved from the jump, tough black cover or not. 

Absolutely. No one is disputing or has disputed this. Everyone who is familiar with this book knows and understands that it was an instant sellout, and thus much more likely to survive in very high grade. Indeed, that's a point I've made many times over many years. However...as I stated above, the total number of copies ordered wasn't very high to begin with.

Let's look at some more numbers, shall we...?

Capital City is the only distributor that we know of that kept order information, and thankfully, we have access to that information:

Batman #423 - 24,800

#424 - 24,650

#425 - 22,950

#426 - 32,550 (a huge percentage jump, for sure...but not a huge number jump)

#427 - 31,250

#428 - 32,450

#429 - 38,250 (retailers caught on after #426 came out. #426-#429 came out on a THREE WEEK schedule at this point)

#430 - 26,200

#431 - 31,500 (now we're starting to see the momentum building)

#432 - 33,950

#433 - 75,650 (NOW we're seeing the madness in full swing. This is the after-effect of DITF and, of course, Byrne.)

#434 - 72,250

#435 - 82,000

#436 - 118,650!!!

And for comparison:

Amazing Spiderman #298 - 36,300

#299 - 36,300

#300 - 42,200

Uncanny X-Men #239 - 70,300

#240 - 68,900

#247 (same month as Batman #436) - 79,500

New Mutants #87 - 34,500

New Mutants #98 - 52,500

Unfortunately, DC stopped sending subscriptions via Second Class in 1987, so we don't have any information...but distribution of copies in 1987 averaged 193,000, which isn't exactly barn burning, and rested entirely on Year One (#404-407) numbers.

So....what can we tell from those numbers? That in absolute terms, DC didn't print a whole bunch of #428s...and...interesting tidbit...after #428 came out and melted the collective comic world, DC refused to let retailers up their orders for #430. Why? Dunno, but they did. 

Now, Cap City only represents part of the market, to be sure, so the picture is incomplete...but Cap City is still consistent with Cap City, and Cap City ordered fewer copies of #428 than ASM #298, #299, #300, and far fewer than contemporaneous X-Men. 

Now...did a higher percentage of that book survive in ultra high grade? Of course! But the total pool of copies from which to draw was a LOT SMALLER than many other books...which is reflected in...TA DA!...the census!

12 hours ago, Gatsby77 said:

There are still *far* more copies out there remaining to be slabbed, if people cared to do so.

If you're saying "there are still *far* more 9.8 copies out there remaining to be slabbed", I'll disagree with you. I think the census progression of the last 11 years bears that out.

If you're saying "there are still *far* more total copies out there remaining to be slabbed", sure...but we're not talking about those...just 9.8 and 9.8 potentials.

Of course, you'll have to define what you mean by "*far* more" either way.

12 hours ago, Gatsby77 said:

But it also ceased to be relevant the moment Tim Drake became Robin.

I don't think so. Tim Drake became Robin in issue #442 or #457...depending on your perspective...and those are both ~30 year old books. Yet we're talking about sales from the past 11 or so years. I'm not sure what this statement has to do with the discussion, if anything.

12 hours ago, Gatsby77 said:

See also Harbinger 1 in 9.8, where you once went to war with me over my prediction that we'd see a solid 250 9.8s of that book the day the movie was released. There are now more than 400, with any potential film still at least 3 years away.

You'll have to point me to this "war" you claim we had. Since a Harbinger "movie" has NEVER been released, I'm not sure how ANY prediction regarding it can be cited. If a movie does't come out for 15-20 years after the prediction...do you think that's really a fair or accurate way of proving it? 

But I think all the numbers above handily demonstrate the following:

1. Batman #428 is not as common as most contemporary books, and certainly not compared to top books of the era.

2. Batman #428 in ultra high grade...despite the near-instant success and popularity of the book...still can't compare to other similar books of the era in terms of census population in 9.8.

3. Batman #428 suffers from the same thing a lot of similar books of the era did: it is a wraparound black cover, which hides absolutely nothing. This has always made it very, very difficult to keep in 9.8 condition.

4. And that's even with the considerable "loose" periods of 2011 and others. I'd lay odds...because I have examples...of copies that sit in 9.8 holders that would not get 9.8s during "tight" periods.

Finally, on a personal note...I have to say, this baggage you've carried around for all these years isn't very healthy. I made a prediction that turned out to be incorrect. And? When did I make that prediction? 2007? 2008? The comics market has changed in ways that no one, no one, could possibly have accurately predicted. Have I been "wrong about the long-term potential, rarity, and pricing on this book for ~12 years now"...?

No, clearly not. The numbers above prove that quite well. Was I wrong about the precise details..? You bet. It was a prediction, and predictions are notorious for being wrong. But was I wrong in essence, in substance...? No. And the numbers show that.

For your own sake, man, this "You were wrong, you were wrong, I told you so!!!" stuff concerning predictions about the future...? You really need to let it go. It's been 11-12 years.

Good luck. 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

Oh, and one more thing:

ASM #301 has 136 9.8s...11 less, currently, than Bats #428.

Bats #428 hovers around $200 in value.

ASM #301 around $1,000.

The only difference right now, then, is demand.

#301 isn't a special issue. It's not a first appearance of anybody. It's just "the first" ASM #300 cover "homage" (which, technically, it isn't.)

In 2011, ASM #301 was a ~$200 book in 9.8.

It can be argued...quite convincingly...that Bats #428 is far, far more important than ASM #301.

All it takes is demand.

We'll see!

[Gatsby77]

Hmm... lots to unpack here.

Some thoughts:

It makes perfect sense that ASM 298-300 and contemporary X-Men issues have higher print runs than Batman at the time. Batman print runs were largely dead in the 1980s until Batmania hit -- and the first trailer for the Batman film didn't hit until what? June 1989?

Still, based on those print runs, it's fair to say Batman 428 had a print run roughly equivalent to that of New Mutants 87, no? And Cap City was what, 40% of the market at the time? Less? That's a fairly large print run relative to a) today's; and b) (more importantly) today's collector base.

Two big distinctions, though:

1) The equivalent books you mention are first appearances, with today's values driven largely by media/movie appearances. Bats 428 isn't. It's the temporary death of character in a storyline that has no more relevance today than a fanciful What If? storyline.

Because Robin's alive and active in DC comics today and has been for >25 years.

And Jason Todd's alive and active in DC comics today, and has been for >15 years.

2) Demographics continue to mitigate against the book.

In another thread you mused about the diminished demand for story-based keys (I think re. Silver Surfer 34-35?). That holds true here as well. Bats 428 is now 31 years old. So if you bought it off the stands, and/or participated in the 1-900 campaign, you're (at least!) pushing 40 years old.

People under 40 have no emotional attachment to the book the way older folks may.

They weren't buying the story off the stands, and likely weren't active a year later, when folks like you and I started collecting and it was an aspirational $35 wall book at <6 months old. *That's* why I loved the book. The first time I entered a comic shop, the wall books of my dreams were Batman 426 ($45), 427 ($35), 438 ($35), and 429 ($12).

The generation of comic book collectors below us (those who grew up on Walking Dead 1 as their Batman 428 or Harbinger 1 and the Nolan films rather than the Keaton ones) don't have that attachment.

But - putting aside that it's not particularly rare, or a first appearance, or likely to be the basis of a Hollywood movie anytime soon...

The book is well along on its journey to mere footnote because both of its key events have been long-since been nullified by retcon. That's huge. It's a good story, with good art, that was a super-key for a brief period of time. But that time's passed, and will continue to diminish.