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why do people avoid 9.6 moderns? is the .2 really worth it?
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54 posts in this topic

3 minutes ago, eastcoaster said:

Yeah but you are only talking about supply. 1000 people wanting 1 available copies is far different than 1 copy wanted with 1000 copies available. Rarity doesn't mean anything if no one wants the rare item.

You brought up supply:

2 hours ago, eastcoaster said:

If 9.8s are so plentiful, why do they command a large premium over 9.6s? Clearly they are in short supply relative to other grades.

...which proved not to be true in at least one case. There are many more like that. No one has disputed supply/demand. The topic (from a decade ago) is "why do people avoid 9.6s?" And the reason today is the same as it was then: because the number "8" is higher than the number "6." Demand for "8" is always going to be higher than "6", regardless of supply. Given the choice...regardless of supply, and all other things being equal, people will *always* choose the 9.8 over the 9.6.

 

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2 hours ago, Hamlet said:
2 hours ago, eastcoaster said:

There is a reason to settle... the price. If you're not picky about 9.6s you can have a much bigger collection.

If you don’t need them in a plastic case you can have an even bigger collection. 🙂

Absolutely true.

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12 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

You brought up supply:

...which proved not to be true in at least one case. There are many more like that. No one has disputed supply/demand. The topic (from a decade ago) is "why do people avoid 9.6s?" And the reason today is the same as it was then: because the number "8" is higher than the number "6." Demand for "8" is always going to be higher than "6", regardless of supply. Given the choice...regardless of supply, and all other things being equal, people will *always* choose the 9.8 over the 9.6.

 

Maybe I wasn't clear but to me supply only has meaning when demand is taken into account so I implicitly was also talking about demand. It's impossible to say if there is a lot or a little supply without relating it to the demand.

Yes, 9.8 is higher than 9.6. Of course all things being equal people will choose the higher grade copy. If the prices were ever equal the market would fix that in a jiffy.

The market has sorted out all this stuff and priced 9.8 and 9.6 appropriately. 

As to why to people avoid 9.6s, it is because they obsess about having the most perfect copy and even minor differences are unbearable.

Edited by eastcoaster
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4 minutes ago, eastcoaster said:

As to why to people avoid 9.6s, it is because they obsess about having the most perfect copy and even minor differences are unbearable.

Exactly correct. Because "8" is a bigger number than "6."

The vast majority of people...even of the people who buy these slabs...could not point out those minor differences if you asked them to. They rely entirely on the number on the case.

As I said earlier:

Quote

Now, don't get me wrong....there IS a very noticeable difference between average 9.6s and average 9.8s...but there are just as many strong 9.6s and weak 9.8s that, on any other day, would easily...and quite justifiably...reside in the other's case.

 

8 minutes ago, eastcoaster said:

Yes, 9.8 is higher than 9.6. Of course all things being equal people will choose the higher grade copy. If the prices were ever equal the market would fix that in a jiffy.

The market has sorted out all this stuff and priced 9.8 and 9.6 appropriately. 

It depends entirely on the book and what's available. If there are 1,000 9.8s and only 1 9.6, that 9.6 would still almost certainly not be as valuable as all thousand 9.8s. There are books for which the prices of 9.8s to 9.6s are fairly equal, since the book itself is, on the whole, relatively uncommon, with relatively low demand.

I don't agree that the price spread between 9.8 and 9.6 is appropriate. I think it's utter lunacy that most 9.8s sell for multiples of 9.6s, when the absolute differences are miniscule to non-existent.

But that's the market for you. "8" is a higher number than "6."

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6 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

Exactly correct. Because "8" is a bigger number than "6."

The vast majority of people...even of the people who buy these slabs...could not point out those minor differences if you asked them to. They rely entirely on the number on the case.

As I said earlier:

 

It depends entirely on the book and what's available. If there are 1,000 9.8s and only 1 9.6, that 9.6 would still almost certainly not be as valuable as all thousand 9.8s. There are books for which the prices of 9.8s to 9.6s are fairly equal, since the book itself is, on the whole, relatively uncommon, with relatively low demand.

I don't agree that the price spread between 9.8 and 9.6 is appropriate. I think it's utter lunacy that most 9.8s sell for multiples of 9.6s, when the absolute differences are miniscule to non-existent.

But that's the market for you. "8" is a higher number than "6."

Well, the multiple is a real market thing set by what people are willing to pay. Yes, it doesn't seem worth it when you consider the miniscule differences but the differences somehow justify the premium in the mind of the collector. For better or worse, I fall into the 9.8 or bust category.

One interesting point is that there's a ceiling at 9.8. Most people are satisfied with that grade and do not want to spend 3x to 10x to get a 9.9 or 10. The 9.6 to 9.8 jump is harsh but not unaffordable. The 9.8 to 9.9 jump usually is.

9.8 is the best grade I can justify given my financial limitations. My obsession with grade weakens when the prices become insane. I'd be fine with a 7.0 Hulk 181 but I'm not going to drop $60k on a 9.8.

 

 

Edited by eastcoaster
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16 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

The reason people don't spend the money on 9.9s and 10s is because they are functionally uncollectable. You cannot put together a run of 9.9 almost anything. You can put together a run of 9.8 of virtually everything printed past 1975.

True, but I still see 9.9s floating around of books I want but won't pay. Spending $300 on a 9.8 or spending $3000 on the 9.9 is an easy choice. A 9.9 or 10 is pretty much bragging rights only.

Edited by eastcoaster
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On 1/19/2020 at 11:06 AM, RockMyAmadeus said:

Here's a look at the census for Locke & Key #1, a relatively popular modern book:

935661480_lockeandkey1census.thumb.png.b7d4780728f3a8857677ab9285fc354d.png

There are more 9.8 copies of this book than every other grade combined...by a factor of 3:1. And yet, 9.8s command a significant premium over 9.6, despite being 4 times more common.

If someone owns a 9.8, they can tell themselves they own a copy tied for 36th best copy graded so far.

If someone owns a 9.6, they can tell themselves they own a copy tied for 494th best copy graded so far.

Looking at it that way, it's pretty easy to see why a 9.8 has some premium over 9.6, but the amount of the premium can always be debated.

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