Press and Flip -- Why the SA market is going to crash . . . 3 3

[tabcom]

I collect GA comics because I like to read them. I'm a collector, not a dealer. OK, end of disclaimer.

 

My opinion of the SA market is that the rush to market of all the pressed 9.8 copies is a tell that the market is peaking at a Ponce like parabolical rate.

 

According to Pedigree Comics’ President and CEO, Doug Schmell: “The (July Grand) auction was a phenomenal success" -- http://comics.gpanalysis.com/gpaforcomics_newsfeed_article.asp?id=3958

 

Oh really??

 

Comparing a few of the items auctioned, If Pedigree couldn't press an extra .2 out of the comic, he lost money (one exception noted).

 

HA.com -- Amazing Spider-Man 3 9.4 - 22,705 (Twin Cities) 05/11

Pedigree Comics' -- Amazing Spider-Man 3 9.4 - 20,751 (Twin Cities) 07/11

HA.com -- Amazing Spider-Man 10 9.6 - 7,767 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Amazing Spider-Man 10 9.8 - 18,001 (Twin Cities) PRESSED

HA.com -- Amazing Spider-Man 14 9.4 - 14,340 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Amazing Spider-Man 14 9.6 - 22,000 (Twin Cities) PRESSED

HA.com -- Amazing Spider-Man 21 9.6 - 7,767 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Amazing Spider-Man 21 9.6 - 7,100 (Twin Cities)

HA.com -- Amazing Spider-Man 25 9.4 - 3,346 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Amazing Spider-Man 25 9.4 - 2,910 (Twin Cities)

HA.com -- Amazing Spider-Man 27 9.4 - 2,868 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Amazing Spider-Man 27 9.4 - 2,400 (Twin Cities)

HA.com -- Avengers 10 9.4 - 1,912 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Avengers 10 9.4 - 1,869 (Twin Cities)

HA.com -- Daredevil 1 9.4 - 17,925 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Daredevil 1 9.6 - 31,501 (Twin Cities) PRESSED

HA.com -- Tales of Suspense 40 9.4 - 15,535 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Tales of Suspense 40 9.4 - 16,185 (Twin Cities) EXCEPTION

HA.com -- Avengers 13 9.8 - 5,975 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Avengers 13 9.8 - 4,700 (Twin Cities)

HA.com -- Fantastic Four 17 9.4 - 5,078 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Fantastic Four 17 9.6 - 9,500 (Twin Cities) PRESSED

 

This type of market activity brings back unpleasant memories of the Nasdaq, March 2000.

 

 

[sufunk]

Well, overall he still made money it looks like because of the couple big upticks on some of those books.

 

Hey, i was happy. I got the avengers 10 cheaper than it went the 1st time around and it sure is nice in hand!

 

[tabcom]

Yeah, if you can press an extra .2 out of a book and flip it, your money machine is working -- for now.

 

The small sampling of data I provided shows a downward trend for a book that can not get a .2 bump after it has been pressed and flipped.

 

[sufunk]

Yeah, if you can press an extra .2 out of a book and flip it, your money machine is working -- for now.

 

The small sampling of data I provided shows a downward trend for a book that can not get a .2 bump after it has been pressed and flipped.

 

No, i see your point but look at it from a dealers perspective.

 

The books that did get a bump saw a HUGE price increase mostly. The books that didnt get a bump sold for pretty dang close to the original price. The Avengers 10 i got went for $43 less than he paid, thats only about a 2% loss. The ASM 10 that did get bumped went from a $7700 book to a $18,000 book.

 

The reward definitely seems worth the risk from a dealers point of view based on that sampling.

[peewee22]

Pressing sux.

[LordRahl]

Don't get me wrong with this post, depending on which day you catch me on I actually think the high grade market might crash for all 3 (GA, SA and BA) and then on other days I think the prices are sustainable.

 

But my question is this, why would it crash because of the press and flip? There doesn't seem to be any lack of buyers at silly prices when they know the books are being pressed and flipped. What might "crash" based on your analysis, is the profit being made off the press and flip if the book isn't improved.

 

Further, why limit to the SA market? Hasn't there been several well documented cases of GA books being pressed up several grades and commanding considerably more money? Actually as far as SA goes, you are only talking about the top couple of grade tiers, 9.4 to 9.6 type stuff. Wasn't there a couple of cases of mid grade GA books being pressed up to NMish?

[paperheart]

 

According to Pedigree Comics’ President and CEO, Doug Schmell: “The (July Grand) auction was a phenomenal success" -- http://comics.gpanalysis.com/gpaforcomics_newsfeed_article.asp?id=3958

 

Oh really??

 

 

using the data you provided, in total there was a 30% return on invested capital in two months. yes, that's a phenomenal success. is it a sign of end of days? maybe but this isn't new- crack, press, resub been around for years. could be it's picking up momentum; then you might possibly say the end is nigh.

[VintageComics]

Yeah, if you can press an extra .2 out of a book and flip it, your money machine is working -- for now.

 

The small sampling of data I provided shows a downward trend for a book that can not get a .2 bump after it has been pressed and flipped.

 

Your post makes a lot of suppositions that might be incorrect.

 

First off, you are assuming that the Twin City books were not pressed originally before they were auctioned at Heritage.

 

Second, you are assuming that only the books that upgraded were pressed.

 

Thirdly, you are assuming that the bidding pool in Pedigree Auctions are indicative of the entire market. They are not. They are indicative of Pedigree's market.

 

Fourth, you are assuming that auction prices are indicative of the FMV. They are not always, as auctions are based on timing and bidding pool.

 

Finally, bringing the same books back to market so soon (1 month) will invariably have an affect on the outcome since they were all recently available.

 

Pressing will increase availability or supply to a degree, there is no doubt about that but that is not the entire picture.

[peewee22]

Yeah, if you can press an extra .2 out of a book and flip it, your money machine is working -- for now.

 

The small sampling of data I provided shows a downward trend for a book that can not get a .2 bump after it has been pressed and flipped.

 

Your post makes a lot of suppositions that might be incorrect.

 

First off, you are assuming that the Twin City books were not pressed originally before they were auctioned at Heritage.

 

Second, you are assuming that only the books that upgraded were pressed.

 

Thirdly, you are assuming that the bidding pool in Pedigree Auctions are indicative of the entire market. They are not. They are indicative of Pedigree's market.

 

Fourth, you are assuming that auction prices are indicative of the FMV. They are not always, as auctions are based on timing and bidding pool.

 

Finally, bringing the same books back to market so soon (1 month) will invariably have an affect on the outcome since they were all recently available.

 

Pressing will increase availability or supply to a degree, there is no doubt about that but that is not the entire picture.

 

[Spiderphill]

Since I've signed up for GPA I have noticed that 2009/10 gpa is higher than now by a decent amount on anything under 9.6/8. I'm sure it will all level off.

 

P.S. a lot of those twin city grades are gifts, they have 9.6's with dust shadows.

[Bomber-Bob]

P.S. a lot of those twin city grades are gifts, they have 9.6's with dust shadows.

 

I disagree, I have been picking up some Twin Cities books in the 8.5 - 9.2 range that look incredible for the grade. The books are very fresh and bright but you are correct, some have dust shadows. I heard that Heritage was disappointed in the overall grades they got from the collection. As always, different perspectives from everyone.

 

[tth2]

I collect GA comics because I like to read them. I'm a collector, not a dealer. OK, end of disclaimer.

 

My opinion of the SA market is that the rush to market of all the pressed 9.8 copies is a tell that the market is peaking at a Ponce like parabolical rate.

 

According to Pedigree Comics’ President and CEO, Doug Schmell: “The (July Grand) auction was a phenomenal success" -- http://comics.gpanalysis.com/gpaforcomics_newsfeed_article.asp?id=3958

 

Oh really??

 

Comparing a few of the items auctioned, If Pedigree couldn't press an extra .2 out of the comic, he lost money (one exception noted).

 

HA.com -- Amazing Spider-Man 3 9.4 - 22,705 (Twin Cities) 05/11

Pedigree Comics' -- Amazing Spider-Man 3 9.4 - 20,751 (Twin Cities) 07/11

HA.com -- Amazing Spider-Man 10 9.6 - 7,767 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Amazing Spider-Man 10 9.8 - 18,001 (Twin Cities) PRESSED

HA.com -- Amazing Spider-Man 14 9.4 - 14,340 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Amazing Spider-Man 14 9.6 - 22,000 (Twin Cities) PRESSED

HA.com -- Amazing Spider-Man 21 9.6 - 7,767 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Amazing Spider-Man 21 9.6 - 7,100 (Twin Cities)

HA.com -- Amazing Spider-Man 25 9.4 - 3,346 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Amazing Spider-Man 25 9.4 - 2,910 (Twin Cities)

HA.com -- Amazing Spider-Man 27 9.4 - 2,868 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Amazing Spider-Man 27 9.4 - 2,400 (Twin Cities)

HA.com -- Avengers 10 9.4 - 1,912 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Avengers 10 9.4 - 1,869 (Twin Cities)

HA.com -- Daredevil 1 9.4 - 17,925 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Daredevil 1 9.6 - 31,501 (Twin Cities) PRESSED

HA.com -- Tales of Suspense 40 9.4 - 15,535 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Tales of Suspense 40 9.4 - 16,185 (Twin Cities) EXCEPTION

HA.com -- Avengers 13 9.8 - 5,975 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Avengers 13 9.8 - 4,700 (Twin Cities)

HA.com -- Fantastic Four 17 9.4 - 5,078 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Fantastic Four 17 9.6 - 9,500 (Twin Cities) PRESSED

 

This type of market activity brings back unpleasant memories of the Nasdaq, March 2000.

 

Good stuff. Thanks for compiling the information. It certainly does bring to mind the image of people climbing out further and further onto a limb in order to make money, and it being only a matter of time before the limb breaks and the whole thing comes crashing down.

 

[tth2]

Finally, bringing the same books back to market so soon (1 month) will invariably have an affect on the outcome since they were all recently available.

This certainly makes you wonder about just how shallow the pool of buyers out there really is, though. If a decent percentage of the TC books were bought from Heritage by dealers looking to press and flip the books, how many real end buyers are there, or is this just a big shell game of a few people passing the same assets back and forth to each other at ever increasing prices, thus creating the illusion of rising prices?

[peewee22]

Finally, bringing the same books back to market so soon (1 month) will invariably have an affect on the outcome since they were all recently available.

This certainly makes you wonder about just how shallow the pool of buyers out there really is, though. If a decent percentage of the TC books were bought from Heritage by dealers looking to press and flip the books, how many real end buyers are there, or is this just a big shell game of a few people passing the same assets back and forth to each other at ever increasing prices, thus creating the illusion of rising prices?

 

[VintageComics]

Finally, bringing the same books back to market so soon (1 month) will invariably have an affect on the outcome since they were all recently available.

This certainly makes you wonder about just how shallow the pool of buyers out there really is, though. If a decent percentage of the TC books were bought from Heritage by dealers looking to press and flip the books, how many real end buyers are there, or is this just a big shell game of a few people passing the same assets back and forth to each other at ever increasing prices, thus creating the illusion of rising prices?

 

Being a full time dealer sheds a little light on what happens behind the curtains. Going into it, I was a little worried about how shallow the pool is.

 

I can say that there are more buyers that I used to think there was when I was a part time dealer. Without giving anything away, I'll just say that they come from the most surprising places.

 

There are many buyers don't even bid on auctions, and some bidders will only deal with certain auctions and not even look at others. For that reason I haven't auctioned a book in a long time (nearly a year).

 

I just wait for a book to find it's buyer. Eventually, it does.

 

(thumbs u

 

 

[Bomber-Bob]

Finally, bringing the same books back to market so soon (1 month) will invariably have an affect on the outcome since they were all recently available.

This certainly makes you wonder about just how shallow the pool of buyers out there really is, though. If a decent percentage of the TC books were bought from Heritage by dealers looking to press and flip the books, how many real end buyers are there, or is this just a big shell game of a few people passing the same assets back and forth to each other at ever increasing prices, thus creating the illusion of rising prices?

 

Being a full time dealer sheds a little light on what happens behind the curtains. Going into it, I was a little worried about how shallow the pool is.

 

I can say that there are more buyers that I used to think there was when I was a part time dealer. Without giving anything away, I'll just say that they come from the most surprising places.

 

There are many buyers don't even bid on auctions, and some bidders will only deal with certain auctions and not even look at others. For that reason I haven't auctioned a book in a long time (nearly a year).

 

I just wait for a book to find it's buyer. Eventually, it does.

 

(thumbs u

 

 

Agreed but if the press and flip was my business model, I would be more worried about the pool of uber graded books that can be upgraded. In this case, I believe the availability of the product is more important than the customer base.

[VintageComics]

It's always about supply vs. demand, right?

 

 

 

 

 

[oakman29]

It's always about supply vs. demand, right?

 

 

 

 

I do however believe that the pressing game has ruined the desirability of lower graded books somewhat.

[skypinkblu]

It's always about supply vs. demand, right?

 

 

 

 

 

[Ted Knight]

These are all great comments and correctly thought out. I also wonder if the phenomenon of dealers buying books at the top of an initial auction, assuming they can then either press and flip or just price up and put out for sale is another explanation for these price drops. Can't tell you how many times I've been outbid on a book at Heritage, just to see it pop up at a dealer a month later, marked 20-40% higher than the final auction price.

 

Long ago when I was a manager at a LCS, I would never have survived buying books like that. Even books that I thought were a premium and in demand. It assumes that there are somehow other buyers, unaware of the auctions that will pay higher prices. Or that the market is growing so fast that prices are increasing at an incredible rate. I believe these numbers contradict both theories. What we're seeing may well be the #2 and #3 bidders after the same book again at another auction. Without the #1 bidder, the price drops.