Press and Flip -- Why the SA market is going to crash . . . 3 3

[RockMyAmadeus]

I've said it before, and I'll say it again.

 

To real collectors, what the market does is irrelevant. If the market soars, great. I've made money on paper, and maybe for my heirs.

 

If the market crashes, great. I can buy the books I couldn't afford before.

 

Win-win-win-win-win.

 

[Bomber-Bob]

It's always about supply vs. demand, right?

 

 

I do however believe that the pressing game has ruined the desirability of lower graded books somewhat.

 

Depends on your definition of lower graded books. Personally, I now go after

many more 8.5 and 9.0's than previously. Uber graded books are no longer rare, in many cases they are a wasting asset. Though I buy only for my collection, I still don't like the fact that my high grades are depreciating. I'm better off picking up a cheap 9.0 with nice eye appeal and of course nice pages !

[tth2]

There are many buyers don't even bid on auctions, and some bidders will only deal with certain auctions and not even look at others. For that reason I haven't auctioned a book in a long time (nearly a year).

I would love to get into the twisted psyche of someone who refuses to buy from Heritage but yet who is willing to buy from Pedigree.

[Ted Knight]

I've said it before, and I'll say it again.

 

To real collectors, what the market does is irrelevant. If the market soars, great. I've made money on paper, and maybe for my heirs.

 

If the market crashes, great. I can buy the books I couldn't afford before.

 

Win-win-win-win-win.

 

 

Agreed except for one thing. When the market soars, the books on my want list are a little less attainable without a similar increase in my buying power.

[RockMyAmadeus]

I've said it before, and I'll say it again.

 

To real collectors, what the market does is irrelevant. If the market soars, great. I've made money on paper, and maybe for my heirs.

 

If the market crashes, great. I can buy the books I couldn't afford before.

 

Win-win-win-win-win.

 

 

Agreed except for one thing. When the market soars, the books on my want list are a little less attainable without a similar increase in my buying power.

 

That's why I buy multiples.

[paperheart]

There are many buyers don't even bid on auctions, and some bidders will only deal with certain auctions and not even look at others. For that reason I haven't auctioned a book in a long time (nearly a year).

I would love to get into the twisted psyche of someone who refuses to buy from Heritage but yet who is willing to buy from Pedigree.

 

"buyers premium"

[tth2]

There are many buyers don't even bid on auctions, and some bidders will only deal with certain auctions and not even look at others. For that reason I haven't auctioned a book in a long time (nearly a year).

I would love to get into the twisted psyche of someone who refuses to buy from Heritage but yet who is willing to buy from Pedigree.

 

"buyers premium"

I knew someone was going to say that!

[supapimp]

There are many buyers don't even bid on auctions, and some bidders will only deal with certain auctions and not even look at others. For that reason I haven't auctioned a book in a long time (nearly a year).

I would love to get into the twisted psyche of someone who refuses to buy from Heritage but yet who is willing to buy from Pedigree.

 

"buyers premium"

I knew someone was going to say that!

 

same with comic connect. no BP.

[Bomber-Bob]

I never used to bid on Heritage auctions because of the BP but lately I have been participating. The site is very clear on the bid with BP and it no longer bothers me. Actually I find the Heritage website to be very robust, informative, and easy to use. Showing previous sales, overstreet prices, and the CGC census really helps you make a quick decision. Also, there are bargains to be had.

[Hepcat]

But my question is this, why would it crash because of the press and flip? There doesn't seem to be any lack of buyers at silly prices when they know the books are being pressed and flipped. What might "crash" based on your analysis, is the profit being made off the press and flip if the book isn't improved.

 

There's a high grade SA slab collector right on this board who's selling/sold just about all his comics because of this trend in the industry. Do you think he's the only one? Meaning more supply and less demand in the future.

 

[paperheart]

But my question is this, why would it crash because of the press and flip? There doesn't seem to be any lack of buyers at silly prices when they know the books are being pressed and flipped. What might "crash" based on your analysis, is the profit being made off the press and flip if the book isn't improved.

 

There's a high grade SA slab collector right on this board who's selling/sold just about all his comics because of this trend in the industry. Do you think he's the only one? Meaning more supply and less demand in the future.

 

 

if tim was a trendsetter, HK would have expensive real estate

[jimjum12]

I never used to bid on Heritage auctions because of the BP but lately I have been participating. The site is very clear on the bid with BP and it no longer bothers me. Actually I find the Heritage website to be very robust, informative, and easy to use. Showing previous sales, overstreet prices, and the CGC census really helps you make a quick decision. Also, there are bargains to be had.

 

.....like this top census (for now...) copy of cover to cover Kubert goodness GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

[peewee22]

But my question is this, why would it crash because of the press and flip? There doesn't seem to be any lack of buyers at silly prices when they know the books are being pressed and flipped. What might "crash" based on your analysis, is the profit being made off the press and flip if the book isn't improved.

 

There's a high grade SA slab collector right on this board who's selling/sold just about all his comics because of this trend in the industry. Do you think he's the only one? Meaning more supply and less demand in the future.

 

 

There still are some HG keys unpressed out there...

[pickycollector]

But my question is this, why would it crash because of the press and flip? There doesn't seem to be any lack of buyers at silly prices when they know the books are being pressed and flipped. What might "crash" based on your analysis, is the profit being made off the press and flip if the book isn't improved.

 

There's a high grade SA slab collector right on this board who's selling/sold just about all his comics because of this trend in the industry. Do you think he's the only one? Meaning more supply and less demand in the future.

 

 

There still are some HG keys unpressed out there...

 

[Silver Surfer]

P.S. a lot of those twin city grades are gifts, they have 9.6's with dust shadows.

 

I disagree, I have been picking up some Twin Cities books in the 8.5 - 9.2 range that look incredible for the grade. The books are very fresh and bright but you are correct, some have dust shadows. I heard that Heritage was disappointed in the overall grades they got from the collection. As always, different perspectives from everyone.

 

I own about 20 TC books and have cracked out 98% of them. I'd say I have a few that are over graded but more that I feel are under graded and some 9.4 and 9.6 copies that are spot on. These books present better than most pedigrees just because of the color strike and gloss.

[lou_fine]

I collect GA comics because I like to read them. I'm a collector, not a dealer. OK, end of disclaimer.

 

My opinion of the SA market is that the rush to market of all the pressed 9.8 copies is a tell that the market is peaking at a Ponce like parabolical rate.

 

According to Pedigree Comics’ President and CEO, Doug Schmell: “The (July Grand) auction was a phenomenal success" -- http://comics.gpanalysis.com/gpaforcomics_newsfeed_article.asp?id=3958

 

Oh really??

 

Comparing a few of the items auctioned, If Pedigree couldn't press an extra .2 out of the comic, he lost money (one exception noted).

 

HA.com -- Amazing Spider-Man 3 9.4 - 22,705 (Twin Cities) 05/11

Pedigree Comics' -- Amazing Spider-Man 3 9.4 - 20,751 (Twin Cities) 07/11

HA.com -- Amazing Spider-Man 10 9.6 - 7,767 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Amazing Spider-Man 10 9.8 - 18,001 (Twin Cities) PRESSED

HA.com -- Amazing Spider-Man 14 9.4 - 14,340 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Amazing Spider-Man 14 9.6 - 22,000 (Twin Cities) PRESSED

HA.com -- Amazing Spider-Man 21 9.6 - 7,767 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Amazing Spider-Man 21 9.6 - 7,100 (Twin Cities)

HA.com -- Amazing Spider-Man 25 9.4 - 3,346 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Amazing Spider-Man 25 9.4 - 2,910 (Twin Cities)

HA.com -- Amazing Spider-Man 27 9.4 - 2,868 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Amazing Spider-Man 27 9.4 - 2,400 (Twin Cities)

HA.com -- Avengers 10 9.4 - 1,912 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Avengers 10 9.4 - 1,869 (Twin Cities)

HA.com -- Daredevil 1 9.4 - 17,925 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Daredevil 1 9.6 - 31,501 (Twin Cities) PRESSED

HA.com -- Tales of Suspense 40 9.4 - 15,535 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Tales of Suspense 40 9.4 - 16,185 (Twin Cities) EXCEPTION

HA.com -- Avengers 13 9.8 - 5,975 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Avengers 13 9.8 - 4,700 (Twin Cities)

HA.com -- Fantastic Four 17 9.4 - 5,078 (Twin Cities)

Pedigree Comics' -- Fantastic Four 17 9.6 - 9,500 (Twin Cities) PRESSED

 

This type of market activity brings back unpleasant memories of the Nasdaq, March 2000.

 

 

In answer to your question, this type of activity is a sure-fire sign that the high-end SA market is headed for nowhere except an eventual huge crash.

 

The above examples clearly show that the market is driven by total speculation and really has nothing at all to do with the underlying books themselves. These books are most likely being bought by whoever, shipped directly to the restorer by Heritage, and then forwarded by the comic book doctor directly to Doug Scmell for resale. The original purchaser if we assume it's not Schmell himself, does not even ever come in direct contact with the books.

 

The above scenario is all done within a 2-month time window as clearly evident from the dates listed above. As a result, the above original purchase transactions are not being done for a love or appreciation of the books themselves, but only for the love of money. The comic books themselves serve only as a vehicle to make this money. If the same type of money could be made by selling used female suppositories, I am sure you would be seeing the exact same knid of market activity. Schmell and these money hungry vultures would be up to their noses and eyeballs in analyzing the amount of staining, degree of ordour, and whatever else it would take to hopefully make their millions.

 

So bottom-line........the high-end SA market is most definitely headed for an eventual crash as it is being driven primarily by not the books themselves, but fuelled by only a love for the money. If the money is no longer there to be made, these high-end SA books will come crashing back down to Earth.

[aardvark88]

I hope you are right that SA prices come down from the stratosphere, as more 9.2, 9.4, 9.6 are potentialized. There are lots of "collectors" going for the easy $$ thru pressing because all the big boys are doing it so join the party. Wash your profits thru the anonymity of comicLink, comicConnect, Pedigree.com or HA.com multiple auctions per month. It is called Capitalism and USA needs job creation and income growth.

[lou_fine]

Further, why limit to the SA market? Hasn't there been several well documented cases of GA books being pressed up several grades and commanding considerably more money? Actually as far as SA goes, you are only talking about the top couple of grade tiers, 9.4 to 9.6 type stuff. Wasn't there a couple of cases of mid grade GA books being pressed up to NMish?

 

I believe you are referring to the Church copy of Boy Comics #17 which went from a 4.0 up to a 7.5 and then finally to a 9.0, while sitting in a blue label throughout its entire journey. Yes, there was a total gross gain of $184 made as the book sold in Heritage for $368 in 2002 and managed to climb all the way to $552 a full year later. I strongly doubt the original purchaser made very much money in the end after accounting for shipping charges, restoration costs, and CGC grading fees.

 

The person who really lost out in the end was the second person who then had the book regraded to a 9.0 and then tried to flip it a few years later on Heritage. Unlike the first go round though, this time it was flagged by one of the boards members. There was so much controversy over this book that the end result was that it was pulled form the Heritage auction and basically unsellable. I believe this book has never come back to market ever since and it would probably be easier to sell a Jason Ewert book than it would be to sell this well publicized upgraded book.

 

For another example, we need only look at the Larson copy of Human Torch #3 (#2) which went from a 9.0 way back in 2002 up to a 9.2 and then finally up to a 9.4 in time for the ComicLink sale in November of last year. On the first go round at Heritage back in 2002, the book sold for just a shade over $8K when top of guide was only $6,200 at the time. I can't remember what the price was for the subsequent sale of the 9.2 copy, but I believe it was markedly lower than the orignal price as the book was flagged as being an upgraded copy. I am also not sure what the CL price was for the November 2010 9.4 sale, but any increase could also be attributed to the +75% increase in the guide price for the book in the interim. This is quite different from high-end SA books which are bought by a completely different clientale who are willing to pay immediately for a book based only upon the grade and doesn't seem to care about the history of the particular book in question.

 

I believe the GA market is markedly different from the SA market when it comes to pricing. In large part, the prices being paid for the GA books are generally being paid for the underlying books themselves. In the case of the high-end SA market, the prices are generally being paid for the grades themselves as opposed to being paid for the actual books. This is why you will see mid-grade GA books or even in some extreme cases, low-grade restored GA books selling for more than top of guide OS prices. Needless to say, you will never ever see this situation with the SA books. I guess with regards to the GA, you are really buying the book and with the high-end SA, you are really buying just the label.

 

Believe me, if there was as much easy money to be made in the flipping of GA books as there is in the restoration and flipping of SA books, than you would see Doug Schmell and the likes in there like hungry wolves. Unless of course, they are already in there and are willing to hold their GA books for years before flipping them for a profit. But I strongly doubt they are doing this.

[thehumantorch]

Further, why limit to the SA market? Hasn't there been several well documented cases of GA books being pressed up several grades and commanding considerably more money? Actually as far as SA goes, you are only talking about the top couple of grade tiers, 9.4 to 9.6 type stuff. Wasn't there a couple of cases of mid grade GA books being pressed up to NMish?

 

I believe you are referring to the Church copy of Boy Comics #17 which went from a 4.0 up to a 7.5 and then finally to a 9.0, while sitting in a blue label throughout its entire journey. Yes, there was a total gross gain of $184 made as the book sold in Heritage for $368 in 2002 and managed to climb all the way to $552 a full year later. I strongly doubt the original purchaser made very much money in the end after accounting for shipping charges, restoration costs, and CGC grading fees.

 

The person who really lost out in the end was the second person who then had the book regraded to a 9.0 and then tried to flip it a few years later on Heritage. Unlike the first go round though, this time it was flagged by one of the boards members. There was so much controversy over this book that the end result was that it was pulled form the Heritage auction and basically unsellable. I believe this book has never come back to market ever since and it would probably be easier to sell a Jason Ewert book than it would be to sell this well publicized upgraded book.

 

For another example, we need only look at the Larson copy of Human Torch #3 (#2) which went from a 9.0 way back in 2002 up to a 9.2 and then finally up to a 9.4 in time for the ComicLink sale in November of last year. On the first go round at Heritage back in 2002, the book sold for just a shade over $8K when top of guide was only $6,200 at the time. I can't remember what the price was for the subsequent sale of the 9.2 copy, but I believe it was markedly lower than the orignal price as the book was flagged as being an upgraded copy. I am also not sure what the CL price was for the November 2010 9.4 sale, but any increase could also be attributed to the +75% increase in the guide price for the book in the interim. This is quite different from high-end SA books which are bought by a completely different clientale who are willing to pay immediately for a book based only upon the grade and doesn't seem to care about the history of the particular book in question.

 

I believe the GA market is markedly different from the SA market when it comes to pricing. In large part, the prices being paid for the GA books are generally being paid for the underlying books themselves. In the case of the high-end SA market, the prices are generally being paid for the grades themselves as opposed to being paid for the actual books. This is why you will see mid-grade GA books or even in some extreme cases, low-grade restored GA books selling for more than top of guide OS prices. Needless to say, you will never ever see this situation with the SA books. I guess with regards to the GA, you are really buying the book and with the high-end SA, you are really buying just the label.

 

Believe me, if there was as much easy money to be made in the flipping of GA books as there is in the restoration and flipping of SA books, than you would see Doug Schmell and the likes in there like hungry wolves. Unless of course, they are already in there and are willing to hold their GA books for years before flipping them for a profit. But I strongly doubt they are doing this.

 

You should post more often, interesting, informative post.

[Ted Knight]

I own about 20 TC books and have cracked out 98% of them.

 

This math is hurting my head.