Press and Flip -- Why the SA market is going to crash . . . 3 3

[paperheart]

I own about 20 TC books and have cracked out 98% of them.

 

This math is hurting my head.

 

- i too wanted to see the 4/10's of the book that wasn't cracked

[adamstrange]

I own about 20 TC books and have cracked out 98% of them.

 

This math is hurting my head.

It wouldn't be hard for an accountant.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[otherworldsj33]

I've been saying for a while now that in the long term this press and flip is eventually going to harm the hobby. In fact I beleived it would have occured already. I'm not judging anyone for doing it, money being what it is, but just that these press created grades and the ensuing prices can't be susatainable.

[paperheart]

I've been saying for a while now that in the long term this press and flip is eventually going to harm the hobby. In fact I beleived it would have occured already. I'm not judging anyone for doing it, money being what it is, but just that these press created grades and the ensuing prices can't be susatainable.

 

+1

[VintageComics]

The truth is that nothing is sustainable forever and everything has a life cycle. What goes up always comes down somewhere.

 

There's very few things that are perpetual.

 

We are just a little emotionally attached to this one as collectors and happen to be in the middle of it cyclically speaking.

 

(thumbs u

[cheetah]

Yeah, if you can press an extra .2 out of a book and flip it, your money machine is working -- for now.

 

The small sampling of data I provided shows a downward trend for a book that can not get a .2 bump after it has been pressed and flipped.

 

I think it is more a function of the venue. A lot of folks won't bid on Pedigree auctions.

[ComicConnoisseur]

The truth is that nothing is sustainable forever and everything has a life cycle. What goes up always comes down somewhere.

 

There's very few things that are perpetual.

 

We are just a little emotionally attached to this one as collectors and happen to be in the middle of it cyclically speaking.

 

(thumbs u

Random thoughts and I am not picking a side.

The pressers and flippers have brought a lot of money into the hobby. Think how stagnant the prices would be. The new 9.8`s get people willing to part with there money. The 9.6`s go up also because people pay the money thinking that it could be a future new 9.8. I really don`t see how it will stop, as pressing is too profitable and can`t be detected. Yeah we all like to think everybody would disclose,but we know that isn`t how human nature acts when money is involved.

Edited August 18, 2011 by ComicConnoisseur

[cheetah]

I see this same discussion frequently. The whole SA UHG market is composed of a limited number of folks willing to shell out big bucks for the highest graded books and the number of UHG books that come out is still miniscule compared to the total number of HG books out there. There may very well be a tipping point in the market where supply outstrips demand, but I don't think we are going to see that on titles like Amazing Spider-man or Fantastic Four. For a secondary title like Avengers or even X-men, the price for these UHG books has already seen a sizeable correction. I don't think the correction qualifies as a crash, though.

[Hepcat]

...pressing ... can`t be detected.

 

Has that proposition ever been tested? Marnin Rosenberg and others have stated that they have no problem in telling pressed books apart from unpressed books.

 

Edited August 18, 2011 by Hepcat

[cheetah]

You can pretty easily tell if some books were pressed. Some books, though, you really can't tell.

[marvel_runs]

I don't work at CGC - but I'm sure this conversation has played out again and again in their conference room...

 

I think the problem with detecting pressing is that some books are "pressed" by gravity from being stored in a stack of comics for 20 or 40 or 50 years in the right environment (temperature & humidity) and others are pressed overnight using mechanical means (temperature, pressure, moisture) and I don't see how CGC could differentiate between these two cases. Does storing your books horizontally instead of vertically in a long box then become a way to get a purple label?

 

Say you pick up some books from a collection in Hawaii or Coastal Southern California, stored in an unconditioned or under-conditioned house in stacks for 40-50 years. They have evidence of minor creases and folds, but have nice page quality and now lay completely flat. They look pressed. Are they pressed? As a grader at CGC, how can you differentiate between those types of flat books and ones that were mechanically pressed overnight (intentionally restored)?

 

my .

MR

[cheetah]

I think the dead giveaway is when one of the cover corners overhangs the inner pages but is perfectly straight and square. It stands out to me on the books I've looked at. An unpressed book typically has a little bit of rounding on overhanging corner covers.

[namisgr]

Another giveaway is tiny areas of fuzziness where the staples enter the exterior cover. I gather there is sometimes a minute movement of the cover in relation to the staples that causes it.

[RockMyAmadeus]

I guess it all depends on what one means by "crash."

 

Because the reality is, the Silver Age comics market...more than any other era, even Gold...is supported by a massive framework of tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of collectors, all of whom would love to own this material, if they could but afford it.

 

When I consider my history, I have about 100 various Golden Age books. The perception for me, as a collector starting really in 1990, is that GA has always been out of my reach, and not easily found, even in "affordable" condition. And that is certainly true for most. So, I've never bothered to aggressively obtain them.

 

But I have near complete runs of almost every Silver Marvel and DC that exists. DD, X-Men, JLA, Green Lantern, Batman, Detective, TOS, TTA, etc.

 

Those books have always been available, which has fueled their popularity. They are an attainable goal, even if not in 9.4 or better condition. How many people, even if they had the money, could assemble a complete run of Detective Comics #1-200, in any grade? 20? 30?

 

How many could assemble a complete set of Spidey #1-100, including Fantasy #15? Thousands.

 

Sure, a book like Avengers #4 may not always sell for, say, $100,000 in 9.6. But it will never see $10,000 again, either, without a very long, very slow slide in between, cushioned by collectors of all income brackets lining up to buy a copy in between.

[Aman619]

well, big spread between 100K and 10K.... thats a crash to me.

[cheetah]

well, big spread between 100K and 10K.... thats a crash to me.

 

9.4s are selling for $25k+. I don't see $10k for a 9.6 happening in this reality. Maybe world war and the end of the dollar as a currency, but not much else.

[RockMyAmadeus]

well, big spread between 100K and 10K.... thats a crash to me.

 

But it will never see $10,000 again, either, without a very long, very slow slide in between, cushioned by collectors of all income brackets lining up to buy a copy....

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

Remember, a crash isn't just a drop in value...it's a drop in value QUICKLY...like the housing market of 2007 vs. the housing market of 2009, or the stock market losing 20% in a week. A crash, by definition, must take place in a relatively short amount of time.

 

Otherwise, it's not a crash, but a slide....the stock market crashed in October of 1929, but by early 1930 had recovered a good chunk of it...it was the long, agonizing slide of 1931-1932 that really sent the Western world reeling.

[NewWorldOrder]

Remember, a crash isn't just a drop in value...it's a drop in value QUICKLY...like the housing market of 2007 vs. the housing market of 2009, or the stock market losing 20% in a week. A crash, by definition, must take place in a relatively short amount of time.

 

Otherwise, it's not a crash, but a slide....the stock market crashed in October of 1929, but by early 1930 had recovered a good chunk of it...it was the long, agonizing slide of 1931-1932 that really sent the Western world reeling.

 

Yes I have to agree with RMA.

 

Many of you guys don't understand the concept of market correction vs crash.

 

A crash would be in the next two years a Hulk #181 CGC 9.6 could be brought for $1000.00 compared to more supply of the book that drives down the GPA price of the book to a couple hundred less.

 

 

Edited August 18, 2011 by Spiderman-on-Tilt

[NewWorldOrder]

Whether pressing is involved or not the uber HG market in post 1965 books usually has the same market proof of volatility.

 

First 9.8 sells for stupid money while the 2nd sells for about half, and so on and so forth.

 

Only suckers by the first new item out of the blocks like buying a new blu ray player when they first came out.

 

The 9.6/9.8 market on common SA/BA books are a risk of losing money over the long run.

 

If you want stable results collect 8.5-9.2. Market hasn't really shown any market decline on books in that grade range.

 

Hence why my ASM collection is paid for by selling the uber HG, and buying the same issue back in 8.5/9.0.

Edited August 18, 2011 by Spiderman-on-Tilt