Press and Flip -- Why the SA market is going to crash . . . 3 3

[Fallsview]

Whether pressing is involved or not the uber HG market in post 1965 books usually has the same market proof of volatility.

 

First 9.8 sells for stupid money while the 2nd sells for about half, and so on and so forth.

 

Only suckers by the first new item out of the blocks like buying a new blu ray player when they first came out.

 

The 9.6/9.8 market on common SA/BA books are a risk of losing money over the long run.

 

If you want stable results collect 8.5-9.2. Market hasn't really shown any market decline on books in that grade range.

 

Hence why my ASM collection is paid for by selling the uber HG, and buying the same issue back in 8.5/9.0.

 

Couldn't agree more with this perspective ... the 9.4 - 9.8 market right now seems to be fueled by the speculators / dealers looking to flip in the short term.

 

The 8.5 to 9.2 market is much more stable due to COLLECTORS buying to hold onto the books, and the pricing of the book fits into the space of: a person who wants to depart with the book / has stopped collecting / needs money and the buyer is someone who is buying something he likes / needs / wlll cherish.

 

Seems a lot of HG books are being snatched up at 5x 9.2 prices and then showing up next week on another site for 10X 9.2 price - one speculator is crossing his fingers hoping the next speculator will bite ... and so the vicious cycle goes on...until the speculation collapses - didn't this happen in the 90's with new issues ??!?!?

 

Perfect example in recent times is GL#76 CGC 9.6 - this book can be bought for half of what auction prices were about 9 to 12 months ago. Nobody held onto this book in the past year, it kept on flipping... and flipping... and flipping

 

[Mark 1]

Whether pressing is involved or not the uber HG market in post 1965 books usually has the same market proof of volatility.

 

First 9.8 sells for stupid money while the 2nd sells for about half, and so on and so forth.

 

Only suckers by the first new item out of the blocks like buying a new blu ray player when they first came out.

 

The 9.6/9.8 market on common SA/BA books are a risk of losing money over the long run.

 

If you want stable results collect 8.5-9.2. Market hasn't really shown any market decline on books in that grade range.

 

Hence why my ASM collection is paid for by selling the uber HG, and buying the same issue back in 8.5/9.0.

 

+1

 

I agree with this and have followed this line of thinking. I have a few 9.4 TOS but the higher grade books I sought out are in 8.5-9.2 range.

 

 

[tth2]

I don't work at CGC - but I'm sure this conversation has played out again and again in their conference room...

 

I think the problem with detecting pressing is that some books are "pressed" by gravity from being stored in a stack of comics for 20 or 40 or 50 years in the right environment (temperature & humidity) and others are pressed overnight using mechanical means (temperature, pressure, moisture) and I don't see how CGC could differentiate between these two cases. Does storing your books horizontally instead of vertically in a long box then become a way to get a purple label?

 

Say you pick up some books from a collection in Hawaii or Coastal Southern California, stored in an unconditioned or under-conditioned house in stacks for 40-50 years. They have evidence of minor creases and folds, but have nice page quality and now lay completely flat. They look pressed. Are they pressed? As a grader at CGC, how can you differentiate between those types of flat books and ones that were mechanically pressed overnight (intentionally restored)?

 

my .

MR

I think the conversations at CGC about pressing have gone more along the lines of: "It's the golden goose! Don't even THINK about with it!"

[joeypost]

WW Chicago had two companies offering on-site pressing and CGC had the best on-site grading numbers ever. You figure it out.

[Aman619]

Whether pressing is involved or not the uber HG market in post 1965 books usually has the same market proof of volatility.

 

First 9.8 sells for stupid money while the 2nd sells for about half, and so on and so forth.

 

Only suckers by the first new item out of the blocks like buying a new blu ray player when they first came out.

 

The 9.6/9.8 market on common SA/BA books are a risk of losing money over the long run.

 

If you want stable results collect 8.5-9.2. Market hasn't really shown any market decline on books in that grade range.

 

Hence why my ASM collection is paid for by selling the uber HG, and buying the same issue back in 8.5/9.0.

 

Couldn't agree more with this perspective ... the 9.4 - 9.8 market right now seems to be fueled by the speculators / dealers looking to flip in the short term.

 

The 8.5 to 9.2 market is much more stable due to COLLECTORS buying to hold onto the books, and the pricing of the book fits into the space of: a person who wants to depart with the book / has stopped collecting / needs money and the buyer is someone who is buying something he likes / needs / wlll cherish.

 

Seems a lot of HG books are being snatched up at 5x 9.2 prices and then showing up next week on another site for 10X 9.2 price - one speculator is crossing his fingers hoping the next speculator will bite ... and so the vicious cycle goes on...until the speculation collapses - didn't this happen in the 90's with new issues ??!?!?

 

Perfect example in recent times is GL#76 CGC 9.6 - this book can be bought for half of what auction prices were about 9 to 12 months ago. Nobody held onto this book in the past year, it kept on flipping... and flipping... and flipping

 

 

Well, GL 76 is indicative of something, but not the point you aremaking IMO. GL was considered scarce in 9.4+ for a long while. Then many copies showed up, and the lone 9.6 was sold for a fortune. I think the thought was that it would main the lone 9.6 forever, like the lone 9.6 AF15 has. Sounds silly now, but ... Then a 9,8 appeared!

 

So what killed GL 76 was more and more copies coming out. Not flipping the same copies.

[LordRahl]

I think the dead giveaway is when one of the cover corners overhangs the inner pages but is perfectly straight and square. It stands out to me on the books I've looked at. An unpressed book typically has a little bit of rounding on overhanging corner covers.

 

I think this is a telltale sign as well however it's not a guarantee of a pressed book. There are copies out there that exhibit the sharp corners even with overhang that are not pressed. Hence the guessing factor that CGC is trying to avoid.

[LordRahl]

Another giveaway is tiny areas of fuzziness where the staples enter the exterior cover. I gather there is sometimes a minute movement of the cover in relation to the staples that causes it.

 

This is something I haven't encountered before, or maybe just never noticed it. Any chance of pics Bob?

[tth2]

WW Chicago had two companies offering on-site pressing and CGC had the best on-site grading numbers ever. You figure it out.

You must be so very proud.

[Bomber-Bob]

WW Chicago had two companies offering on-site pressing and CGC had the best on-site grading numbers ever. You figure it out.

 

No doubt about it. I submitted 3 books onsite without pressing. I submitted another 15 books onsite with onsite pressing. Without onsite pressing these would not have been submitted. My pressed submissions were books from my personal collection that were not strong enough to submit on their own. They

would have sat raw in a box.

[paperheart]

WW Chicago had two companies offering on-site pressing and CGC had the best on-site grading numbers ever. You figure it out.

 

No doubt about it. I submitted 3 books onsite without pressing. I submitted another 15 books onsite with onsite pressing. Without onsite pressing these would not have been submitted. My pressed submissions were books from my personal collection that were not strong enough to submit on their own. They

would have sat raw in a box.

 

[Bomber-Bob]

Another giveaway is tiny areas of fuzziness where the staples enter the exterior cover. I gather there is sometimes a minute movement of the cover in relation to the staples that causes it.

 

This is something I haven't encountered before, or maybe just never noticed it. Any chance of pics Bob?

 

I know exactly what Bob is refering to. It depends on the location of the staples. If they are perfectly centered on the spine they are more vulnerable. I don't believe CGC downgrades for the 'fuzzy'. I once sent them back a book thinking the 'fuzzy' was SCS and asking them to look at it. They simply sent it back, as is.

[Scrooge]

And people wonder why I collect low grade rags :doh:

[Bomber-Bob]

WW Chicago had two companies offering on-site pressing and CGC had the best on-site grading numbers ever. You figure it out.

 

No doubt about it. I submitted 3 books onsite without pressing. I submitted another 15 books onsite with onsite pressing. Without onsite pressing these would not have been submitted. My pressed submissions were books from my personal collection that were not strong enough to submit on their own. They

would have sat raw in a box.

 

 

I understand your response. I used to feel the same way, mainly because I did not want to subject my books to the pressing process. I used Joey for the first time in Chicago and he was very careful and respectful of my books. Even the books that didn't grade out still looked better.

[oakman29]

What is amazing in this thread is John/SOT is NOT the UHG snob we thought he was.John I am floored!

 

[NewWorldOrder]

What is amazing in this thread is John/SOT is NOT the UHG snob we thought he was.John I am floored!

 

 

No I sell the UHG books to pay for 8.5/9.0's.

 

Cause at the end of the day most comics sit in boxes, so I would rather just look at my personal collection and see the comic books and not the money.

 

 

 

Edited August 19, 2011 by Spiderman-on-Tilt

[namisgr]

First 9.8 sells for stupid money while the 2nd sells for about half, and so on and so forth.

 

Only suckers by the first new item out of the blocks like buying a new blu ray player when they first came out.

 

The 9.6/9.8 market on common SA/BA books are a risk of losing money over the long run.

 

If you want stable results collect 8.5-9.2. Market hasn't really shown any market decline on books in that grade range.

 

Hence why my ASM collection is paid for by selling the uber HG, and buying the same issue back in 8.5/9.0.

 

Your point about top census copies is a good one that has been proven time and again, John. It's your view that the stable part of the SA Market is the 8.5-9.2 range that I haven't experienced. For the titles that I follow, it's the 9.6 grade that has maintained value during the overall price softening of the past few years at the expense of the lesser high grades. The board slogan used to be "the madness begins at 9.6", but ironically this grade point is probably the most stable part of the post-1964 SA market in the era of rampant pressing and increasing supply of high grade examples.

 

Case in point from the Heritage auction just completed was the Fantastic Four #101. The 9.6 Twin Cities copy went for over $400. The Suscha News 9.6 copy recently sold for nearly $500. The last recorded sale of a non-pedigree 9.6 copy was for $600. The last 9.4 sale? $90. The last 9.2? $63. Excluding the insanity of the 9.8 hunting, it's the higher grade that has maintained price over the past couple of years while the prices for lower grades seem to have collapsed.

 

I think this has been a common trend in the recent SA market. It means that 8.5 - 9.2 collectors like yourself can pick up books at great value relative to their historic prices of the recent past, but it also raises the possibility that they may continue to trend downward in value. Great as collectables, but maybe not so hot as 'investables'.

 

For the relatively scarce high grade SA material from before 1965, the market is different, and my experience as a seller of several CGC-graded runs has been that price strength has depended on the title.

[joeypost]

WW Chicago had two companies offering on-site pressing and CGC had the best on-site grading numbers ever. You figure it out.

You must be so very proud.

 

Yes, yes I am.

[ComicConnoisseur]

Whether pressing is involved or not the uber HG market in post 1965 books usually has the same market proof of volatility.

 

First 9.8 sells for stupid money while the 2nd sells for about half, and so on and so forth.

 

Only suckers by the first new item out of the blocks like buying a new blu ray player when they first came out.

 

The 9.6/9.8 market on common SA/BA books are a risk of losing money over the long run.

 

If you want stable results collect 8.5-9.2. Market hasn't really shown any market decline on books in that grade range.

 

Hence why my ASM collection is paid for by selling the uber HG, and buying the same issue back in 8.5/9.0.

 

Couldn't agree more with this perspective ... the 9.4 - 9.8 market right now seems to be fueled by the speculators / dealers looking to flip in the short term.

 

The 8.5 to 9.2 market is much more stable due to COLLECTORS buying to hold onto the books, and the pricing of the book fits into the space of: a person who wants to depart with the book / has stopped collecting / needs money and the buyer is someone who is buying something he likes / needs / wlll cherish.

 

Seems a lot of HG books are being snatched up at 5x 9.2 prices and then showing up next week on another site for 10X 9.2 price - one speculator is crossing his fingers hoping the next speculator will bite ... and so the vicious cycle goes on...until the speculation collapses - didn't this happen in the 90's with new issues ??!?!?

 

Perfect example in recent times is GL#76 CGC 9.6 - this book can be bought for half of what auction prices were about 9 to 12 months ago. Nobody held onto this book in the past year, it kept on flipping... and flipping... and flipping

I think that had more to do with the Green Lantern movie tanking,as just about every Green Lantern comic book prices have dropped dramatically the last month.

Also something to watch out for is most of the books being pressed are of the Avengers,Spider-man and Adams Batman variety right now. All three books have movies coming out next summer. I am pretty sure none will do as good at the boxoffice as expected. That could cause a crash or market correction more than the pressing and flipping.

 

Edited August 20, 2011 by ComicConnoisseur

[ComicConnoisseur]

First 9.8 sells for stupid money while the 2nd sells for about half, and so on and so forth.

 

Only suckers by the first new item out of the blocks like buying a new blu ray player when they first came out.

 

The 9.6/9.8 market on common SA/BA books are a risk of losing money over the long run.

 

If you want stable results collect 8.5-9.2. Market hasn't really shown any market decline on books in that grade range.

 

Hence why my ASM collection is paid for by selling the uber HG, and buying the same issue back in 8.5/9.0.

 

Your point about top census copies is a good one that has been proven time and again, John. It's your view that the stable part of the SA Market is the 8.5-9.2 range that I haven't experienced. For the titles that I follow, it's the 9.6 grade that has maintained value during the overall price softening of the past few years at the expense of the lesser high grades. The board slogan used to be "the madness begins at 9.6", but ironically this grade point is probably the most stable part of the post-1964 SA market in the era of rampant pressing and increasing supply of high grade examples.

 

Case in point from the Heritage auction just completed was the Fantastic Four #101. The 9.6 Twin Cities copy went for over $400. The Suscha News 9.6 copy recently sold for nearly $500. The last recorded sale of a non-pedigree 9.6 copy was for $600. The last 9.4 sale? $90. The last 9.2? $63. Excluding the insanity of the 9.8 hunting, it's the higher grade that has maintained price over the past couple of years while the prices for lower grades seem to have collapsed.

 

I think this has been a common trend in the recent SA market. It means that 8.5 - 9.2 collectors like yourself can pick up books at great value relative to their historic prices of the recent past, but it also raises the possibility that they may continue to trend downward in value. Great as collectables, but maybe not so hot as 'investables'. For the relatively scarce high grade SA material from before 1965, the market is different, and my experience as a seller of several CGC-graded runs has been that price strength has depended on the title.

The thing is these for the most part were mass produced, and are not hard to get like Golden age keys. The one thing they got going for them is demand though, lots of demand as they are classics.

[2beerStan-migration]

well, big spread between 100K and 10K.... thats a crash to me.

 

9.4s are selling for $25k+. I don't see $10k for a 9.6 happening in this reality. Maybe world war and the end of the dollar as a currency, but not much else.

 

Next fall I would be surprised if these prices don't go south.