• When you click on links to various merchants on this site and make a purchase, this can result in this site earning a commission. Affiliate programs and affiliations include, but are not limited to, the eBay Partner Network.

Press and Flip -- Why the SA market is going to crash . . .
3 3

107 posts in this topic

Just now, NoMan said:

I understand that. Curious if it is a good strategy is or not.

It depends on what you want to accomplish. If you're a collector you don't care. If you're a reseller you cash in. But it's a cycle that's been happening for as long as there has been a market. Any market.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/18/2019 at 4:54 PM, NoMan said:
On 6/15/2019 at 8:37 AM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Thanks for bringing this thread back from the archives ... it was a good read.

I was a very active SA collector from 1998 - 2007, buying almost exclusively raw books in the 8.5-9.4 range, with a few exceptions (probably my best purchase ever was a CGC 9.4 Hulk #181, for $1,500).  I did major renovations on my house in 2008-2009 and my collecting really slowed down, to the point where I stopped buying books after a while.

I got serious about my collection again in 2017, submitting entire runs and upgrading where necessary to try to put together the best collection I could.  At first, I did a lot of kicking myself for not having invested in high-grade CGC books a decade earlier, but I was having fun and I decided not to think about that any more.  After all, I could have put a bunch of money into Amazon stock in 2007, too.

In the two years since I got back into the hobby I've already seen some big swings (up and down) in the value of certain books.  Especially when buying at auction, there have been times where I've bought a book well above GPA and wondered if I was being really foolish or really smart.  Because I'm buying to hold, and I'm definitely not in the press-and-flip business, I generally spend more time tracking prices on the books still on my want list than the books I already have.

But from this thread, and from some other anecdotal data I've seen in GPA, it seems like the prices I'm buying at now, while higher than they were in 2007, are (at least for some books) markedly less than they would have been in 2011.  Since it was mentioned earlier in the thread, here's Avengers #4 in 9.4 as one example:

Untitled.thumb.png.8b41abf639219c5b47117c98f2c1b978.png

I've worked hard to educate myself and I think I've become pretty attuned to the market on the books that I collect, but especially when buying mega-keys I always worry that there's more history to the book I'm buying than I realize.  When I see a conversation like the one going on in the AF #15 thread about a 9.0 that (presumably) got pressed to a 9.2, I wonder if there are books in my collection that knowledgeable collectors would talk down because of some background info that I wasn't aware of.  The good news is that I'm going to be holding these books for a long time, and should the day ever come to sell, I'm hoping they will have at least retained their value.  If they enjoy substantial appreciation in value, all the better -- but I collect because I genuinely love the books.

Thanks for posting this screenshot. Pretty sobering. 

It actually might not be quite as sobering as it appears based upon those stats above, since they are really referring to the uber HG end of the market which is really nothing more than a CGC label market.  As everybody should know by now since history has shown us time and time again, the CGC label market (especially for the highest graded copy) for what are otherwise relatively common books only has transitory value and in most cases tends to move down as other copies in equivalent or higher grade shows up in the marketplace.  hm

Since the original poster stated that he collects only CGC 8.5 to 9.4 graded copies of books, I do not understand why he would be showing stats for CGC 9.4 to 9.8 graded copies which are highly volatile.  It would have been much more informative to look at the stats for CGC 8.0 to CGC 9.4 graded copies of Avenfgwers 4 where the large majority of the real collecting world resides in.  The picture might look a lot prettier for the copies in CGC 8.0 to 9.0 grades (if not even lower) where the majority of the real world slabbed transactions are actually taking place at.  (thumbsu

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/20/2019 at 5:26 PM, NoMan said:

I'd love to read some kinda study done Re: when a Book X sells for a ton of dough (taking folks by surprise) if other copies come out of the woodwork, owners thinking "I've got Book X and based on that last sale, now's the time to sell." If statistics reveal that was a good time to sell or not. 

No statistical evidence for support, but if you eliminate one high roller buyer who may have waited years for the right copy to appear from the market, it's hard to fill that gap with his replacement (speculator) bidder.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, lou_fine said:

It actually might not be quite as sobering as it appears based upon those stats above, since they are really referring to the uber HG end of the market which is really nothing more than a CGC label market.  As everybody should know by now since history has shown us time and time again, the CGC label market (especially for the highest graded copy) for what are otherwise relatively common books only has transitory value and in most cases tends to move down as other copies in equivalent or higher grade shows up in the marketplace.  hm

Since the original poster stated that he collects only CGC 8.5 to 9.4 graded copies of books, I do not understand why he would be showing stats for CGC 9.4 to 9.8 graded copies which are highly volatile.  It would have been much more informative to look at the stats for CGC 8.0 to CGC 9.4 graded copies of Avenfgwers 4 where the large majority of the real collecting world resides in.  The picture might look a lot prettier for the copies in CGC 8.0 to 9.0 grades (if not even lower) where the majority of the real world slabbed transactions are actually taking place at.  (thumbsu

By "original poster" are you referring to me?

To clarify, I said that I once collected raw books and that my collection generally ranged from 8.5 to 9.4 (or let's say VF+ to NM since this was in the days before CGC took off).  Since then I have put together high grade CGC runs, mostly 9.4 except for ultra keys where that's not feasible.  That includes a 9.4 of Avengers #4, which I bought to upgrade from my raw copy which came back 8.0 from CGC.

My screen shot was intended to focus only on the price graph for Avengers #4 in 9.4.  The fact that you can also see 9.6 and 9.8 in that screen shot is beside the point.

As for what is "more informative," I can only speak for my own collecting interests.  For the vast majority of my Silver Age collection, I'm looking at 9.4 and not paying attention to 8.0.  Of course, there are many important exceptions to this -- if we're talking about, say, FF #5 then 8.0 is definitely of interest to me.  But my point was simply this:  I became less active in the hobby after 2007, I picked it up again in 2017, and when I look at a book like Avengers #4 I sure am glad I bought it in 2018 not 2011.

I understand what you mean when you say the high grade market is just a "CGC label market" and I take no personal offense.  But by your logic, the entire CGC market is a "label market."  If someone wants to buy mid-grade copies of books so they can read them, they're going to buy raw.  If they buy a slabbed 5.0 or 7.0 or whatever, presumably they're doing that because they want the blue label, the same way that another collector might insist that when they buy modern books they want the blue label that says CGC 9.8 WHITE on it.

Edited by Sweet Lou 14
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice thread resurrection.! It's amazing to me how the general attitude of most collectors has changed. Pressing is now...dare I say...the norm. I find the "8.5 to 9.2" value claim interesting as well. I was one of those 9.2 buyers when I fist started collecting graded books in the early 2000's. I had a pretty good stash of run books...no keys to speak of. From my perspective,  I wish I would have purchased high grades...9.6 plus. Essentially,  monetarily, I've actually lost money on most of the 9.2's.They aren't really worth much more than it costs to grade a book today. If all of those purchases were 9.6 or higher...I'd at least be at even money...

Edited by Supa-Bad-Mofo
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, Supa-Bad-Mofo said:

Nice thread resurrection.! It's amazing to me how the general attitude of most collectors has changed. Pressing is now...dare I say...the norm. I find the "8.5 to 9.2" value claim interesting as well. I was one of those 9.2 buyers when I fist started collecting graded books in the early 2000's. I had a pretty good stash of run books...no keys to speak of. From my perspective,  I wish I would have purchased high grades...9.6 plus. Essentially,  monetarily, I've actually lost money on most of the 9.2's.They aren't really worth much more than it costs to grade a book today. If all of those purchases were 9.6 or higher...I'd at least be at even money...

For a book that I love and keeping, pressing is BAD. :bigsmile:

For a book that I am flipping to max profits, pressing is GOOD. :devil:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/24/2019 at 2:06 PM, Sweet Lou 14 said:

I understand what you mean when you say the high grade market is just a "CGC label market" and I take no personal offense.  But by your logic, the entire CGC market is a "label market." 

Definitely didn't mean to offend anybody here as it's really to each, their own. Whatever makes one happy is good to go and should be of no concern to anybody else.  (thumbsu

As for myself, what I meant is that when I buy a slabbed book I like to really pay for the underlying book itself, with as little premium as possible for the actual number on the label.  I find that when collectors or speculators have to pay a huge premium for the "CGC highest graded" copy or even any uber HG copy of a book, they don't want to see another equivalent graded copy come into the marketplace for fear that it might actually lower the value of their copy.  In this kind of scenario, the purchaser is really paying a stiff premium for the CGC label and as a result, if another copy of the same book comes out in either equivalent or higher grade, then the value of the purchaser's book would drop accordingly.  :cry:

I prefer to find myself in a situation whereby when I purchase a book, I want it to be at a price point whereby there is as little premium as possible attached to the label itself.  As a result, if I was the purchaser of the book, I would then certainly be looking forward with anticipation to similarly graded copies (i.e. slightly lower, equivalent, or even slightly higher) to come to market so that it would not only reinforce the original price which I had paid for the book, but also at the same time serve to continue the upward trajectory in the price of the book.  The only problem is that it's tough to find these books at reasonable prices and when you are lucky enough to do so, often you have to wait quite awhile for other copies of the same book to come to market again.  hm  :taptaptap:

Edited by lou_fine
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
3 3