Moderns that are heating up on ebay! 70 70

[revat]

Could someone who objects to using the reported sales for an issue as a basis for the *estimate* of the print run of an incentive explain to me what a publisher has to gain by intentionally printing far more than they need, if they're only going to blow them out cheaply later on? What's to gain there? If there was a trail of evidence suggesting that the publisher was selling those variants at a markup later on, then there would be logic to the idea that the print run far exceeds the estimate based on sales, but it makes no sense for them to print far more if they don't need them and are going to sit on them (and pay Diamond to store them), only to let them go for pennies later.

 

 

Few things....

 

1. Who is saying they print "far more than they need"? That's the point: we don't know, but trying to estimate on an unrelated number is misleading at best. That's the reason why the numbers shouldn't be compared, above and beyond any other concerns.

 

For every X amount of copies of this regular book you order, you get/can purchase 1 copy of this incentive. That's the only concrete information we have about the incentive, and the publisher doesn't owe anybody anything beyond fulfilling those orders. That does not therefore mean that the two print runs are tied together by that distribution number. They're not. The publishers print what they want, and always have, for whatever reasons they have, whether it's precisely what they need down to the copy, or 10 times what they need to fulfill the incentive. We don't know.

 

Yes, the estimated sales of the regular version establishes an estimated BASELINE of possible incentive copies printed, true, but it's only a baseline. That is, "there were at least X copies printed." But the other side is open ended.

 

2. Who determines what Marvel "needs"? Doesn't Marvel determine what Marvel needs, for their own purposes?

 

3. Are you aware that Marvel warehoused around 3,000 Spiderman #1 Platinums for 15 years, until they were purchased by Todd McDevitt's New Dimension Comics around 2005? Why did Marvel print "far more than they needed", and then pay to store them for a decade and a half? Because they thought they needed them, and when they no longer thought that, they sold them.

 

And I guarantee you, McDevitt didn't pay anywhere near what they were worth on the market at the time.

 

4. Marvel prints millions of comic books every year. They aren't going to have much problem paying Diamond to store whatever amount they print above and beyond what they need.

 

5. It doesn't cost Marvel much more to print an extra X amount of copies than it does the regular book, since everything but the cover is the same. It costs Marvel about 50 cents a copy...and that's probably a high estimate for the big boys (vs. around $1.00/copy for 5-6k indy books.) So, if they are "blowing out" incentives for $1.25, $1.50, $2 each...they're not losing money. They're just selling books that they had about the same amount into as any other book, for about the same amount as they would get for any other book.

 

And you're right, they're not selling anything at a markup later on. Marvel doesn't care about that. They're not a back issue dealer. To Marvel and DC and others, however, these books are no different at all from every other book. It didn't cost them much more, if anything, to print them, it didn't cost them much more, if anything, to store them, and if they sell them for the same price they get for other books, they're not "selling them for pennies." You're thinking like a collector, or a dealer....not a publisher.

 

6. Nobody unintentionally prints much of anything.

 

Here's the things we know about what goes into the print run of an incentive variant:

 

1. Distribution ratio.

2. Diamond Sales numbers for the regular issue.

 

Here's a list of things we DON'T know that go into the print number of an incentive variant.

 

1. How many international issues were ordered.

2. How many orders qualified for how many variants.

3. How many of the qualified orders actually bought the incentive variants.

4. How many reserves are ordered by Diamond (and internationally).

5. What is the rounding to the nearest full case or palette (or other unit) in terms of ordering by Diamond

6. If there are any additional discounts or thresholds to be met either for ordering in general or for this specific issue (if Marvel or DC wants to push it harder). E.G. We're at 900 issues ordered so far, but at 1000 we get a discount or if we order five sets of 1000 comics each they'll toss in an extra 100 each, etc. And what if these specials are just for this month, or this season, like a Christmas bonus or Stan Lee's birthday or whatever, or in promo of a movie.

7. #6 is just Diamond telling Marvel how much they want, what about similar things for international dealers.

8. #6 and #7 are just about how much the distributors are ordering from Marvel. Similar specials, reserves, making full unit orders, freebies, etc. can happen when Marvel orders from the printer, and that doesn't even account for:

9. Marvel ordering more on top of what distributors ordered for:

a. Extras for artists, creators, staff (don't underestimate this, this can get into the hundreds pretty easily)

b. Special promotions - give out an extra freebie to stores, advertising

c. Special events - company picnics, board meetings, charity, etc.

d. Extra anticipated re-orders due to expected high sales or popularity, or an estimated low quality of print run (but what if the print run turned out ok?)

e. Any other reason they want. E.G. The printers gave us a deal, so we just ordered 1,000 of everything that month that was 1:50 or higher.

10. The printer themselves prints extra reserves based on the Marvel orders, most likely a percentage of total orders. If you had a situation wear the print run turned out exceptionally well, but EVERYONE ordered reserves along the way AND the printer printed EXTRA reserves, that's could already easily be 30-60% higher than the original number ordered by LCS's.

 

Any one of these things may not seem like very much individually as factors, but on a variant where someone THINKS there's between 400-600 or even 1000-2000 out there, when the number printed could quite reasonably possibly be 500-1000+ more than you originally thought, the difference could be huge. And even before considering all these reasonable special factors, we DON'T know numbers about how many were ordered on a 'normal' month. And we don't know how often even those 'normal' months occur, whether 2/3 months are normal, or half, or a third of months.

 

 

Try this one. On Feb 24, 2008 the Lakers beat the Sonics in Seattle. The Sonics scored 91 points. How many free throws did Kobe take? With that info, how valid is your guess. Yes, you could be right. But...you couldn't know unless you looked it up, or even guess in good faith, unless you wanted to say something useless like between 4 and 30 free throws.

 

With just the date, the opponent, the winner, and the opponents score total, how close would you get if on guessing Kobe's free throw attempts for the next ten games (without ANY additional info)? Note that this is still way easier to guess than variant print run

Edited May 25, 2016 by Revat

[Jaydogrules]

Could someone who objects to using the reported sales for an issue as a basis for the *estimate* of the print run of an incentive explain to me what a publisher has to gain by intentionally printing far more than they need, if they're only going to blow them out cheaply later on? What's to gain there? If there was a trail of evidence suggesting that the publisher was selling those variants at a markup later on, then there would be logic to the idea that the print run far exceeds the estimate based on sales, but it makes no sense for them to print far more if they don't need them and are going to sit on them (and pay Diamond to store them), only to let them go for pennies later.

 

 

Few things....

 

1. Who is saying they print "far more than they need"? That's the point: we don't know, but trying to estimate on an unrelated number is misleading at best. That's the reason why the numbers shouldn't be compared, above and beyond any other concerns.

 

For every X amount of copies of this regular book you order, you get/can purchase 1 copy of this incentive. That's the only concrete information we have about the incentive, and the publisher doesn't owe anybody anything beyond fulfilling those orders. That does not therefore mean that the two print runs are tied together by that distribution number. They're not. The publishers print what they want, and always have, for whatever reasons they have, whether it's precisely what they need down to the copy, or 10 times what they need to fulfill the incentive. We don't know.

 

Yes, the estimated sales of the regular version establishes an estimated BASELINE of possible incentive copies printed, true, but it's only a baseline. That is, "there were at least X copies printed." But the other side is open ended.

 

2. Who determines what Marvel "needs"? Doesn't Marvel determine what Marvel needs, for their own purposes?

 

3. Are you aware that Marvel warehoused around 3,000 Spiderman #1 Platinums for 15 years, until they were purchased by Todd McDevitt's New Dimension Comics around 2005? Why did Marvel print "far more than they needed", and then pay to store them for a decade and a half? Because they thought they needed them, and when they no longer thought that, they sold them.

 

And I guarantee you, McDevitt didn't pay anywhere near what they were worth on the market at the time.

 

4. Marvel prints millions of comic books every year. They aren't going to have much problem paying Diamond to store whatever amount they print above and beyond what they need.

 

5. It doesn't cost Marvel much more to print an extra X amount of copies than it does the regular book, since everything but the cover is the same. It costs Marvel about 50 cents a copy...and that's probably a high estimate for the big boys (vs. around $1.00/copy for 5-6k indy books.) So, if they are "blowing out" incentives for $1.25, $1.50, $2 each...they're not losing money. They're just selling books that they had about the same amount into as any other book, for about the same amount as they would get for any other book.

 

And you're right, they're not selling anything at a markup later on. Marvel doesn't care about that. They're not a back issue dealer. To Marvel and DC and others, however, these books are no different at all from every other book. It didn't cost them much more, if anything, to print them, it didn't cost them much more, if anything, to store them, and if they sell them for the same price they get for other books, they're not "selling them for pennies." You're thinking like a collector, or a dealer....not a publisher.

 

6. Nobody unintentionally prints much of anything.

 

Here's the things we know about what goes into the print run of an incentive variant:

 

1. Distribution ratio.

2. Diamond Sales numbers for the regular issue.

 

Here's a list of things we DON'T know that go into the print number of an incentive variant.

 

1. How many international issues were ordered.

2. How many orders qualified for how many variants.

3. How many of the qualified orders actually bought the incentive variants.

4. How many reserves are ordered by Diamond (and internationally).

5. What is the rounding to the nearest full case or palette (or other unit) in terms of ordering by Diamond

6. If there are any additional discounts or thresholds to be met either for ordering in general or for this specific issue (if Marvel or DC wants to push it harder). E.G. We're at 900 issues ordered so far, but at 1000 we get a discount or if we order five sets of 1000 comics each they'll toss in an extra 100 each, etc. And what if these specials are just for this month, or this season, like a Christmas bonus or Stan Lee's birthday or whatever, or in promo of a movie.

7. #6 is just Diamond telling Marvel how much they want, what about similar things for international dealers.

8. #6 and #7 are just about how much the distributors are ordering from Marvel. Similar specials, reserves, making full unit orders, freebies, etc. can happen when Marvel orders from the printer, and that doesn't even account for:

9. Marvel ordering more on top of what distributors ordered for:

a. Extras for artists, creators, staff (don't underestimate this, this can get into the hundreds pretty easily)

b. Special promotions - give out an extra freebie to stores, advertising

c. Special events - company picnics, board meetings, charity, etc.

d. Extra anticipated re-orders due to expected high sales or popularity, or an estimated low quality of print run (but what if the print run turned out ok?)

e. Any other reason they want. E.G. The printers gave us a deal, so we just ordered 1,000 of everything that month that was 1:50 or higher.

10. The printer themselves prints extra reserves based on the Marvel orders, most likely a percentage of total orders. If you had a situation wear the print run turned out exceptionally well, but EVERYONE ordered reserves along the way AND the printer printed EXTRA reserves, that's could already easily be 30-60% higher than the original number ordered by LCS's.

 

Any one of these things may not seem like very much individually as factors, but on a variant where someone THINKS there's between 400-600 or even 1000-2000 out there, when the number printed could quite reasonably possibly be 500-1000+ more than you originally thought, the difference could be huge. And even before considering all these reasonable special factors, we DON'T know numbers about how many were ordered on a 'normal' month. And we don't know how often even those 'normal' months occur, whether 2/3 months are normal, or half, or a third of months.

 

 

Try this one. On Feb 24, 2008 the Lakers beat the Sonics in Seattle. The Sonics scored 91 points. How many free throws did Kobe take?

 

With just the date, the opponent, the winner, and the opponents score total, how close would you get if on guessing Kobe's free throw attempts for the next ten games (without ANY additional info)? Note that this is still way easier to guess than variant print run

 

The international market is narrow and an entirely different market and should not even be discussed in the context of estimating a ratio variant's print run, since they are not even the same books in many instances.

 

-J.

[FrankWhite]

Could someone who objects to using the reported sales for an issue as a basis for the *estimate* of the print run of an incentive explain to me what a publisher has to gain by intentionally printing far more than they need, if they're only going to blow them out cheaply later on? What's to gain there? If there was a trail of evidence suggesting that the publisher was selling those variants at a markup later on, then there would be logic to the idea that the print run far exceeds the estimate based on sales, but it makes no sense for them to print far more if they don't need them and are going to sit on them (and pay Diamond to store them), only to let them go for pennies later.

 

 

Few things....

 

1. Who is saying they print "far more than they need"? That's the point: we don't know, but trying to estimate on an unrelated number is misleading at best. That's the reason why the numbers shouldn't be compared, above and beyond any other concerns.

 

For every X amount of copies of this regular book you order, you get/can purchase 1 copy of this incentive. That's the only concrete information we have about the incentive, and the publisher doesn't owe anybody anything beyond fulfilling those orders. That does not therefore mean that the two print runs are tied together by that distribution number. They're not. The publishers print what they want, and always have, for whatever reasons they have, whether it's precisely what they need down to the copy, or 10 times what they need to fulfill the incentive. We don't know.

 

Yes, the estimated sales of the regular version establishes an estimated BASELINE of possible incentive copies printed, true, but it's only a baseline. That is, "there were at least X copies printed." But the other side is open ended.

 

2. Who determines what Marvel "needs"? Doesn't Marvel determine what Marvel needs, for their own purposes?

 

3. Are you aware that Marvel warehoused around 3,000 Spiderman #1 Platinums for 15 years, until they were purchased by Todd McDevitt's New Dimension Comics around 2005? Why did Marvel print "far more than they needed", and then pay to store them for a decade and a half? Because they thought they needed them, and when they no longer thought that, they sold them.

 

And I guarantee you, McDevitt didn't pay anywhere near what they were worth on the market at the time.

 

4. Marvel prints millions of comic books every year. They aren't going to have much problem paying Diamond to store whatever amount they print above and beyond what they need.

 

5. It doesn't cost Marvel much more to print an extra X amount of copies than it does the regular book, since everything but the cover is the same. It costs Marvel about 50 cents a copy...and that's probably a high estimate for the big boys (vs. around $1.00/copy for 5-6k indy books.) So, if they are "blowing out" incentives for $1.25, $1.50, $2 each...they're not losing money. They're just selling books that they had about the same amount into as any other book, for about the same amount as they would get for any other book.

 

And you're right, they're not selling anything at a markup later on. Marvel doesn't care about that. They're not a back issue dealer. To Marvel and DC and others, however, these books are no different at all from every other book. It didn't cost them much more, if anything, to print them, it didn't cost them much more, if anything, to store them, and if they sell them for the same price they get for other books, they're not "selling them for pennies." You're thinking like a collector, or a dealer....not a publisher.

 

6. Nobody unintentionally prints much of anything.

 

Here's the things we know about what goes into the print run of an incentive variant:

 

1. Distribution ratio.

2. Diamond Sales numbers for the regular issue.

 

Here's a list of things we DON'T know that go into the print number of an incentive variant.

 

1. How many international issues were ordered.

2. How many orders qualified for how many variants.

3. How many of the qualified orders actually bought the incentive variants.

4. How many reserves are ordered by Diamond (and internationally).

5. What is the rounding to the nearest full case or palette (or other unit) in terms of ordering by Diamond

6. If there are any additional discounts or thresholds to be met either for ordering in general or for this specific issue (if Marvel or DC wants to push it harder). E.G. We're at 900 issues ordered so far, but at 1000 we get a discount or if we order five sets of 1000 comics each they'll toss in an extra 100 each, etc. And what if these specials are just for this month, or this season, like a Christmas bonus or Stan Lee's birthday or whatever, or in promo of a movie.

7. #6 is just Diamond telling Marvel how much they want, what about similar things for international dealers.

8. #6 and #7 are just about how much the distributors are ordering from Marvel. Similar specials, reserves, making full unit orders, freebies, etc. can happen when Marvel orders from the printer, and that doesn't even account for:

9. Marvel ordering more on top of what distributors ordered for:

a. Extras for artists, creators, staff (don't underestimate this, this can get into the hundreds pretty easily)

b. Special promotions - give out an extra freebie to stores, advertising

c. Special events - company picnics, board meetings, charity, etc.

d. Extra anticipated re-orders due to expected high sales or popularity, or an estimated low quality of print run (but what if the print run turned out ok?)

e. Any other reason they want. E.G. The printers gave us a deal, so we just ordered 1,000 of everything that month that was 1:50 or higher.

10. The printer themselves prints extra reserves based on the Marvel orders, most likely a percentage of total orders. If you had a situation wear the print run turned out exceptionally well, but EVERYONE ordered reserves along the way AND the printer printed EXTRA reserves, that's could already easily be 30-60% higher than the original number ordered by LCS's.

 

Any one of these things may not seem like very much individually as factors, but on a variant where someone THINKS there's between 400-600 or even 1000-2000 out there, when the number printed could quite reasonably possibly be 500-1000+ more than you originally thought, the difference could be huge. And even before considering all these reasonable special factors, we DON'T know numbers about how many were ordered on a 'normal' month. And we don't know how often even those 'normal' months occur, whether 2/3 months are normal, or half, or a third of months.

 

 

Try this one. On Feb 24, 2008 the Lakers beat the Sonics in Seattle. The Sonics scored 91 points. How many free throws did Kobe take? With that info, how valid is your guess. Yes, you could be right. But...you couldn't know unless you looked it up, or even guess in good faith, unless you wanted to say something useless like between 4 and 30 free throws.

 

With just the date, the opponent, the winner, and the opponents score total, how close would you get if on guessing Kobe's free throw attempts for the next ten games (without ANY additional info)? Note that this is still way easier to guess than variant print run

 

This is what I like to see!

 

This is very eloquently said and states common sense in systematic and step by step way that even a insufficiently_thoughtful_person should be able to get it.

[krighton]

3 Jokers , 3 Superman, super-boy, super lois , rebirth, death cheech?? Ridiculous!

 

Reminds me of the 50s which had some fun comics

[Jaydogrules]

Could someone who objects to using the reported sales for an issue as a basis for the *estimate* of the print run of an incentive explain to me what a publisher has to gain by intentionally printing far more than they need, if they're only going to blow them out cheaply later on? What's to gain there? If there was a trail of evidence suggesting that the publisher was selling those variants at a markup later on, then there would be logic to the idea that the print run far exceeds the estimate based on sales, but it makes no sense for them to print far more if they don't need them and are going to sit on them (and pay Diamond to store them), only to let them go for pennies later.

 

 

Few things....

 

1. Who is saying they print "far more than they need"? That's the point: we don't know, but trying to estimate on an unrelated number is misleading at best. That's the reason why the numbers shouldn't be compared, above and beyond any other concerns.

 

For every X amount of copies of this regular book you order, you get/can purchase 1 copy of this incentive. That's the only concrete information we have about the incentive, and the publisher doesn't owe anybody anything beyond fulfilling those orders. That does not therefore mean that the two print runs are tied together by that distribution number. They're not. The publishers print what they want, and always have, for whatever reasons they have, whether it's precisely what they need down to the copy, or 10 times what they need to fulfill the incentive. We don't know.

 

Yes, the estimated sales of the regular version establishes an estimated BASELINE of possible incentive copies printed, true, but it's only a baseline. That is, "there were at least X copies printed." But the other side is open ended.

 

2. Who determines what Marvel "needs"? Doesn't Marvel determine what Marvel needs, for their own purposes?

 

3. Are you aware that Marvel warehoused around 3,000 Spiderman #1 Platinums for 15 years, until they were purchased by Todd McDevitt's New Dimension Comics around 2005? Why did Marvel print "far more than they needed", and then pay to store them for a decade and a half? Because they thought they needed them, and when they no longer thought that, they sold them.

 

And I guarantee you, McDevitt didn't pay anywhere near what they were worth on the market at the time.

 

4. Marvel prints millions of comic books every year. They aren't going to have much problem paying Diamond to store whatever amount they print above and beyond what they need.

 

5. It doesn't cost Marvel much more to print an extra X amount of copies than it does the regular book, since everything but the cover is the same. It costs Marvel about 50 cents a copy...and that's probably a high estimate for the big boys (vs. around $1.00/copy for 5-6k indy books.) So, if they are "blowing out" incentives for $1.25, $1.50, $2 each...they're not losing money. They're just selling books that they had about the same amount into as any other book, for about the same amount as they would get for any other book.

 

And you're right, they're not selling anything at a markup later on. Marvel doesn't care about that. They're not a back issue dealer. To Marvel and DC and others, however, these books are no different at all from every other book. It didn't cost them much more, if anything, to print them, it didn't cost them much more, if anything, to store them, and if they sell them for the same price they get for other books, they're not "selling them for pennies." You're thinking like a collector, or a dealer....not a publisher.

 

6. Nobody unintentionally prints much of anything.

 

Here's the things we know about what goes into the print run of an incentive variant:

 

1. Distribution ratio.

2. Diamond Sales numbers for the regular issue.

 

Here's a list of things we DON'T know that go into the print number of an incentive variant.

 

1. How many international issues were ordered.

2. How many orders qualified for how many variants.

3. How many of the qualified orders actually bought the incentive variants.

4. How many reserves are ordered by Diamond (and internationally).

5. What is the rounding to the nearest full case or palette (or other unit) in terms of ordering by Diamond

6. If there are any additional discounts or thresholds to be met either for ordering in general or for this specific issue (if Marvel or DC wants to push it harder). E.G. We're at 900 issues ordered so far, but at 1000 we get a discount or if we order five sets of 1000 comics each they'll toss in an extra 100 each, etc. And what if these specials are just for this month, or this season, like a Christmas bonus or Stan Lee's birthday or whatever, or in promo of a movie.

7. #6 is just Diamond telling Marvel how much they want, what about similar things for international dealers.

8. #6 and #7 are just about how much the distributors are ordering from Marvel. Similar specials, reserves, making full unit orders, freebies, etc. can happen when Marvel orders from the printer, and that doesn't even account for:

9. Marvel ordering more on top of what distributors ordered for:

a. Extras for artists, creators, staff (don't underestimate this, this can get into the hundreds pretty easily)

b. Special promotions - give out an extra freebie to stores, advertising

c. Special events - company picnics, board meetings, charity, etc.

d. Extra anticipated re-orders due to expected high sales or popularity, or an estimated low quality of print run (but what if the print run turned out ok?)

e. Any other reason they want. E.G. The printers gave us a deal, so we just ordered 1,000 of everything that month that was 1:50 or higher.

10. The printer themselves prints extra reserves based on the Marvel orders, most likely a percentage of total orders. If you had a situation wear the print run turned out exceptionally well, but EVERYONE ordered reserves along the way AND the printer printed EXTRA reserves, that's could already easily be 30-60% higher than the original number ordered by LCS's.

 

Any one of these things may not seem like very much individually as factors, but on a variant where someone THINKS there's between 400-600 or even 1000-2000 out there, when the number printed could quite reasonably possibly be 500-1000+ more than you originally thought, the difference could be huge. And even before considering all these reasonable special factors, we DON'T know numbers about how many were ordered on a 'normal' month. And we don't know how often even those 'normal' months occur, whether 2/3 months are normal, or half, or a third of months.

 

 

Try this one. On Feb 24, 2008 the Lakers beat the Sonics in Seattle. The Sonics scored 91 points. How many free throws did Kobe take? With that info, how valid is your guess. Yes, you could be right. But...you couldn't know unless you looked it up, or even guess in good faith, unless you wanted to say something useless like between 4 and 30 free throws.

 

With just the date, the opponent, the winner, and the opponents score total, how close would you get if on guessing Kobe's free throw attempts for the next ten games (without ANY additional info)? Note that this is still way easier to guess than variant print run

 

This is what I like to see!

 

This is very eloquently said and states common sense in systematic and step by step way that even a insufficiently_thoughtful_person should be able to get it.

 

 

Uh, not really.

 

There are at least a dozen more assumptions being made in that convoluted analysis than there are when someone simply estimates based on Comichron's distribution reports (which is also, incidentally, the closest thing to concrete, industry accepted information that we actually have).

 

-J.

[FrankWhite]

Could someone who objects to using the reported sales for an issue as a basis for the *estimate* of the print run of an incentive explain to me what a publisher has to gain by intentionally printing far more than they need, if they're only going to blow them out cheaply later on? What's to gain there? If there was a trail of evidence suggesting that the publisher was selling those variants at a markup later on, then there would be logic to the idea that the print run far exceeds the estimate based on sales, but it makes no sense for them to print far more if they don't need them and are going to sit on them (and pay Diamond to store them), only to let them go for pennies later.

 

 

Few things....

 

1. Who is saying they print "far more than they need"? That's the point: we don't know, but trying to estimate on an unrelated number is misleading at best. That's the reason why the numbers shouldn't be compared, above and beyond any other concerns.

 

For every X amount of copies of this regular book you order, you get/can purchase 1 copy of this incentive. That's the only concrete information we have about the incentive, and the publisher doesn't owe anybody anything beyond fulfilling those orders. That does not therefore mean that the two print runs are tied together by that distribution number. They're not. The publishers print what they want, and always have, for whatever reasons they have, whether it's precisely what they need down to the copy, or 10 times what they need to fulfill the incentive. We don't know.

 

Yes, the estimated sales of the regular version establishes an estimated BASELINE of possible incentive copies printed, true, but it's only a baseline. That is, "there were at least X copies printed." But the other side is open ended.

 

2. Who determines what Marvel "needs"? Doesn't Marvel determine what Marvel needs, for their own purposes?

 

3. Are you aware that Marvel warehoused around 3,000 Spiderman #1 Platinums for 15 years, until they were purchased by Todd McDevitt's New Dimension Comics around 2005? Why did Marvel print "far more than they needed", and then pay to store them for a decade and a half? Because they thought they needed them, and when they no longer thought that, they sold them.

 

And I guarantee you, McDevitt didn't pay anywhere near what they were worth on the market at the time.

 

4. Marvel prints millions of comic books every year. They aren't going to have much problem paying Diamond to store whatever amount they print above and beyond what they need.

 

5. It doesn't cost Marvel much more to print an extra X amount of copies than it does the regular book, since everything but the cover is the same. It costs Marvel about 50 cents a copy...and that's probably a high estimate for the big boys (vs. around $1.00/copy for 5-6k indy books.) So, if they are "blowing out" incentives for $1.25, $1.50, $2 each...they're not losing money. They're just selling books that they had about the same amount into as any other book, for about the same amount as they would get for any other book.

 

And you're right, they're not selling anything at a markup later on. Marvel doesn't care about that. They're not a back issue dealer. To Marvel and DC and others, however, these books are no different at all from every other book. It didn't cost them much more, if anything, to print them, it didn't cost them much more, if anything, to store them, and if they sell them for the same price they get for other books, they're not "selling them for pennies." You're thinking like a collector, or a dealer....not a publisher.

 

6. Nobody unintentionally prints much of anything.

 

Here's the things we know about what goes into the print run of an incentive variant:

 

1. Distribution ratio.

2. Diamond Sales numbers for the regular issue.

 

Here's a list of things we DON'T know that go into the print number of an incentive variant.

 

1. How many international issues were ordered.

2. How many orders qualified for how many variants.

3. How many of the qualified orders actually bought the incentive variants.

4. How many reserves are ordered by Diamond (and internationally).

5. What is the rounding to the nearest full case or palette (or other unit) in terms of ordering by Diamond

6. If there are any additional discounts or thresholds to be met either for ordering in general or for this specific issue (if Marvel or DC wants to push it harder). E.G. We're at 900 issues ordered so far, but at 1000 we get a discount or if we order five sets of 1000 comics each they'll toss in an extra 100 each, etc. And what if these specials are just for this month, or this season, like a Christmas bonus or Stan Lee's birthday or whatever, or in promo of a movie.

7. #6 is just Diamond telling Marvel how much they want, what about similar things for international dealers.

8. #6 and #7 are just about how much the distributors are ordering from Marvel. Similar specials, reserves, making full unit orders, freebies, etc. can happen when Marvel orders from the printer, and that doesn't even account for:

9. Marvel ordering more on top of what distributors ordered for:

a. Extras for artists, creators, staff (don't underestimate this, this can get into the hundreds pretty easily)

b. Special promotions - give out an extra freebie to stores, advertising

c. Special events - company picnics, board meetings, charity, etc.

d. Extra anticipated re-orders due to expected high sales or popularity, or an estimated low quality of print run (but what if the print run turned out ok?)

e. Any other reason they want. E.G. The printers gave us a deal, so we just ordered 1,000 of everything that month that was 1:50 or higher.

10. The printer themselves prints extra reserves based on the Marvel orders, most likely a percentage of total orders. If you had a situation wear the print run turned out exceptionally well, but EVERYONE ordered reserves along the way AND the printer printed EXTRA reserves, that's could already easily be 30-60% higher than the original number ordered by LCS's.

 

Any one of these things may not seem like very much individually as factors, but on a variant where someone THINKS there's between 400-600 or even 1000-2000 out there, when the number printed could quite reasonably possibly be 500-1000+ more than you originally thought, the difference could be huge. And even before considering all these reasonable special factors, we DON'T know numbers about how many were ordered on a 'normal' month. And we don't know how often even those 'normal' months occur, whether 2/3 months are normal, or half, or a third of months.

 

 

Try this one. On Feb 24, 2008 the Lakers beat the Sonics in Seattle. The Sonics scored 91 points. How many free throws did Kobe take? With that info, how valid is your guess. Yes, you could be right. But...you couldn't know unless you looked it up, or even guess in good faith, unless you wanted to say something useless like between 4 and 30 free throws.

 

With just the date, the opponent, the winner, and the opponents score total, how close would you get if on guessing Kobe's free throw attempts for the next ten games (without ANY additional info)? Note that this is still way easier to guess than variant print run

 

This is what I like to see!

 

This is very eloquently said and states common sense in systematic and step by step way that even a insufficiently_thoughtful_person should be able to get it.

 

 

Uh, not really.

 

There are at least a dozen more assumptions being made in that convoluted analysis than there are when someone simply estimates based on Comichron's distribution reports (which is also, incidentally, the closest thing to concrete, industry accepted information that we actually have).

 

-J.

 

Sorry buddy but nothing you say holds any validity with me after seeing your very 1st post about the 400 print run on that variant.

 

It was an obvious exaggeration at best. An outright lie at worst.

 

I'm not judging you I'm only going with the facts. Your numbers were intentionally low even if by theory we used your so called "formula".

 

I cannot take any of your posts seriously after that.

 

The thing is? I know you are a very intelligent man. I can tell by the way you write.

 

So I must come to the conclusion that it is not ignorance on your part to be misleading...it is actually intentional.

 

I'm sorry sir but you are very transparent and I cannot hold my tongue. I call it how I see it.

Edited May 25, 2016 by FrankWhite

[aggr1103]

So let's talk about books heating up!

 

Lois and Clark 8 is already hitting $14.99 shipped on eBay on it's day of release! I grabbed the last two issues my LCS had. Got my wife grabbing a couple copies from a shop near her.

 

I also picked up Supes 52 and Justice League 50. Just specs. But we'll see.

[Jeffreykli]

I've tried to stay out of the "estimated print run" discussion, but I can't help myself any longer.

 

1. It seems to me that you're all trying to estimate a print run of a particular incentive variant based on the Diamond order numbers. Which then is bumped up to try to estimate worldwide orders.

 

2. Then, the order number is used to apply the stated incentive ratio to determine the estimated print run.

 

The problem is that you're using the wrong inputs.

 

The issue with #1 is that you're assuming that global orders is what Marvel cares about to determine the print run.

 

The issue with #2 is that you're assuming that Marvel only prints to the estimated print run, plus some comp copies and overages.

 

I believe that the above analysis is likely sufficient for most books, but for books where the analysis would infer a minuscule print run, the analysis breaks down. The real issue is whether there's a minimum print run that Marvel imposes on any particular book, regardless of orders, and if so, what that print run might be.

 

Coming from a different background (corporate lawyer, responsible for printing the company's proxy statement and annual report), I can tell you that anticipated demand has some relationship to print run, but is not the only factor. Yes, I have to print at least what I need for orders (mailing out to shareholders), but then the economics of printing come into play. By far, the biggest cost is the setup cost of putting the print plates or getting the digital file ready for print. Basically, the incremental cost per unit is minimal, so I easily round to the nearest thousand or more. Then, after a year or two, I have to recycle all of the unused reports since the likelihood of anyone wanting one after a year drops dramatically.

 

My main point in all of this is that my experience leads me to believe that there is a minimum print run, probably one to two thousand. If orders are below that point, Marvel doesn't care or even think about it and just has the minimum print run done.

[rjrjr]

RMA... There is No actual number that we can know !!!! AGREE

 

But we can use whatever we have to try to arrive at a guess right? it hurts no one ! As long as its not stated as a fact ! I stick to my guns that the JIM 633 most likely is not over 1000 and probably 2-3 cases. 450/675 very logical given the known factors...

 

why would they ever print double or triple what is needed, just to liquidate.

 

We know that at the most the UK is 15 percent of the total distribution numbers? on the high side. we know that just because 30,000/35,000 books where printed that only a percentage was FO cutoff with 50 or more. LOGIC

 

Did you know U.S. Marvel comics are also distributed to more than the UK overseas. I traveled Europe last year and just about every shop I visited had new Marvel comics. The exact same ones we have in the U.S. In English. I saw this in France, Belgium, Germany, etc.

 

It would be interesting to know how much those sales account for. I can see another 15% or more easily just from the other countries.

Edited May 25, 2016 by rjrjr

[revat]

RMA... There is No actual number that we can know !!!! AGREE

 

But we can use whatever we have to try to arrive at a guess right? it hurts no one ! As long as its not stated as a fact ! I stick to my guns that the JIM 633 most likely is not over 1000 and probably 2-3 cases. 450/675 very logical given the known factors...

 

why would they ever print double or triple what is needed, just to liquidate.

 

We know that at the most the UK is 15 percent of the total distribution numbers? on the high side. we know that just because 30,000/35,000 books where printed that only a percentage was FO cutoff with 50 or more. LOGIC

 

Did you know U.S. Marvel comics are also distributed to more than the UK overseas. I traveled Europe last year and just about every shop I visited had new Marvel comics. The exact same ones we have in the U.S. In English. I saw this in France, Belgium, Germany, etc.

 

It would be interesting to know how much those sales account for. I can see another 15% or more easily just from the other countries.

 

Aside from a few other European countries like Sweden, Netherlands, Switzerland, etc there's also...

 

Australia, new Zealand, INDIA, Philippines, Singapore, and probably some others.

 

Do these constitute HUGE #'s? Maybe, maybe not, but in aggregate it MIGHT in some cases represent another bump in variant print run, which may not insignificant, and may or may not be consistent (some variants might not even be offered internationally for whatever reason, or at different incentive levels).

 

The point is not that any single factor causes sooooo much uncertainty, although in some cases it might, but the point is that there's sooooo MANY factors that going into deciding print run (of any comic, including variants), with 99% of them being unknown to the public for any given issue, that essentially you're just closing your eyes and throwing darts at a moving board and then making a guess at what you hit.

[bababooey]

I don't think publishers are totally disinterested in the aftermarket, it's true they don't participate in it directly but it's undeniable that a few of their variants getting traded for big money helps the program. A three year old variant that gets crazy prices on e-bay does quite a bit to entice collectors to seek out the next "ultra rare variant" released this week and that demand pushes retailers to try and secure copies by increasing orders to meet the ratio variant eligibility.

 

 

[Jaydogrules]

RMA... There is No actual number that we can know !!!! AGREE

 

But we can use whatever we have to try to arrive at a guess right? it hurts no one ! As long as its not stated as a fact ! I stick to my guns that the JIM 633 most likely is not over 1000 and probably 2-3 cases. 450/675 very logical given the known factors...

 

why would they ever print double or triple what is needed, just to liquidate.

 

We know that at the most the UK is 15 percent of the total distribution numbers? on the high side. we know that just because 30,000/35,000 books where printed that only a percentage was FO cutoff with 50 or more. LOGIC

 

Did you know U.S. Marvel comics are also distributed to more than the UK overseas. I traveled Europe last year and just about every shop I visited had new Marvel comics. The exact same ones we have in the U.S. In English. I saw this in France, Belgium, Germany, etc.

 

It would be interesting to know how much those sales account for. I can see another 15% or more easily just from the other countries.

 

Aside from a few other European countries like Sweden, Netherlands, Switzerland, etc there's also...

 

Australia, new Zealand, INDIA, Philippines, Singapore, and probably some others.

 

Do these constitute HUGE #'s? Maybe, maybe not, but in aggregate it MIGHT in some cases represent another bump in variant print run, which may not insignificant, and may or may not be consistent (some variants might not even be offered internationally for whatever reason, or at different incentive levels).

 

The point is not that any single factor causes sooooo much uncertainty, although in some cases it might, but the point is that there's sooooo MANY factors that going into deciding print run (of any comic, including variants), with 99% of them being unknown to the public for any given issue, that essentially you're just closing your eyes and throwing darts at a moving board and then making a guess at what you hit.

 

The variants we get are distributed through Diamond N.A. and there is nothing that I have ever seen that even suggests that they are offered overseas.

 

Again, what I see are foreign reprints that use many of the variant covers but with different interiors, or covers that are unique to the overseas market that we don't get here.

 

It is a different market and should not be a part of the conversation.

 

-J.

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

Could someone who objects to using the reported sales for an issue as a basis for the *estimate* of the print run of an incentive explain to me what a publisher has to gain by intentionally printing far more than they need, if they're only going to blow them out cheaply later on? What's to gain there? If there was a trail of evidence suggesting that the publisher was selling those variants at a markup later on, then there would be logic to the idea that the print run far exceeds the estimate based on sales, but it makes no sense for them to print far more if they don't need them and are going to sit on them (and pay Diamond to store them), only to let them go for pennies later.

 

Few things....

 

1. Who is saying they print "far more than they need"? That's the point: we don't know, but trying to estimate on an unrelated number is misleading at best.That's the reason why the numbers shouldn't be compared, above and beyond any other concerns.

 

For every X amount of copies of this regular book you order, you get/can purchase 1 copy of this incentive. That's the only concrete information we have about the incentive, and the publisher doesn't owe anybody anything beyond fulfilling those orders. That does not therefore mean that the two print runs are tied together by that distribution number. They're not. The publishers print what they want, and always have, for whatever reasons they have, whether it's precisely what they need down to the copy, or 10 times what they need to fulfill the incentive. We don't know.

 

Yes, the estimated sales of the regular version establishes an estimated BASELINE of possible incentive copies printed, true, but it's only a baseline. That is, "there were at least X copies printed." But the other side is open ended.

 

2. Who determines what Marvel "needs"? Doesn't Marvel determine what Marvel needs, for their own purposes?

 

3. Are you aware that Marvel warehoused around 3,000 Spiderman #1 Platinums for 15 years, until they were purchased by Todd McDevitt's New Dimension Comics around 2005? Why did Marvel print "far more than they needed", and then pay to store them for a decade and a half? Because they thought they needed them, and when they no longer thought that, they sold them.

 

And I guarantee you, McDevitt didn't pay anywhere near what they were worth on the market at the time.

 

4. Marvel prints millions of comic books every year. They aren't going to have much problem paying Diamond to store whatever amount they print above and beyond what they need.

 

5. It doesn't cost Marvel much more to print an extra X amount of copies than it does the regular book, since everything but the cover is the same. It costs Marvel about 50 cents a copy...and that's probably a high estimate for the big boys (vs. around $1.00/copy for 5-6k indy books.) So, if they are "blowing out" incentives for $1.25, $1.50, $2 each...they're not losing money. They're just selling books that they had about the same amount into as any other book, for about the same amount as they would get for any other book.

 

And you're right, they're not selling anything at a markup later on. Marvel doesn't care about that. They're not a back issue dealer. To Marvel and DC and others, however, these books are no different at all from every other book. It didn't cost them much more, if anything, to print them, it didn't cost them much more, if anything, to store them, and if they sell them for the same price they get for other books, they're not "selling them for pennies." You're thinking like a collector, or a dealer....not a publisher.

 

6. Nobody unintentionally prints much of anything.

 

 

No.

 

If anything, it is closer to a MAXIMUM CEILING of potential copies printed, since not every store will order enough quantities of a book to qualify for the incentive.

 

But in reality, once you factor back in printing overages for damages (placed at 10-15% tops by boardies knowledgeable of the printing industry) and courtesy copies, rounded up to the nearest case pack, it is VERY reasonable to use Comichron's N.A. distribution numbers to ESTIMATE a ratio variant's print run (which is all that I have seen anyone do on here, and they should be able to do so without being harassed, barked at or condescended to every single time).

 

-J.

 

 

Sorry, but that's the opposite of how it really is, Jay. Your logic doesn't follow, because you're not paying attention to the numbers. That's not condescending, that's not "talking down to you", that's just explaining things as they are. Distribution ratios aren't print numbers. They only determine how an incentive is distributed...not printed.

 

Yes, not all the shops are going to qualify, of course. But nobody except Marvel and Diamond knows how many orders do and do not qualify.

 

For the "estimated print run of incentives" to be a "maximum", as you have claimed, it would mean that the publishers only print what they need to fulfill orders in an "optimized" situation (that is, every order qualified, and ordered no "odd" amounts.) And we know that's not true for every incentive....in fact, we know it's not true for many incentives. And it's not true to the extent that the numbers are far greater than that which would account for spoilage, etc.

 

So, DO publishers print SOME incentives JUST to orders, plus spoilage?

 

Maybe. We don't know.

 

That's the point.

 

We don't know.

 

I know you believe it is reasonable to think that you can use one number to estimate the other. However, for all the many reasons already given, you cannot, because the numbers aren't tied to each other. The distribution ratio (the number you keep trying to use) has nothing to do with the print run of the incentive.

 

It doesn't get much plainer than that.

 

And you need to save the personal comments for some other place. It is not welcome here, and there is a growing chorus of complaints about your behavior to moderation.

 

No one has "harassed" you, unless you think simply being disagreed with is "harassment", and you clearly do. Enough already.

 

 

 

 

[krighton]

only thing heating up in this thread are the Diamond comic presses.

[rjrjr]

RMA... There is No actual number that we can know !!!! AGREE

 

But we can use whatever we have to try to arrive at a guess right? it hurts no one ! As long as its not stated as a fact ! I stick to my guns that the JIM 633 most likely is not over 1000 and probably 2-3 cases. 450/675 very logical given the known factors...

 

why would they ever print double or triple what is needed, just to liquidate.

 

We know that at the most the UK is 15 percent of the total distribution numbers? on the high side. we know that just because 30,000/35,000 books where printed that only a percentage was FO cutoff with 50 or more. LOGIC

 

Did you know U.S. Marvel comics are also distributed to more than the UK overseas. I traveled Europe last year and just about every shop I visited had new Marvel comics. The exact same ones we have in the U.S. In English. I saw this in France, Belgium, Germany, etc.

 

It would be interesting to know how much those sales account for. I can see another 15% or more easily just from the other countries.

 

Aside from a few other European countries like Sweden, Netherlands, Switzerland, etc there's also...

 

Australia, new Zealand, INDIA, Philippines, Singapore, and probably some others.

 

Do these constitute HUGE #'s? Maybe, maybe not, but in aggregate it MIGHT in some cases represent another bump in variant print run, which may not insignificant, and may or may not be consistent (some variants might not even be offered internationally for whatever reason, or at different incentive levels).

 

The point is not that any single factor causes sooooo much uncertainty, although in some cases it might, but the point is that there's sooooo MANY factors that going into deciding print run (of any comic, including variants), with 99% of them being unknown to the public for any given issue, that essentially you're just closing your eyes and throwing darts at a moving board and then making a guess at what you hit.

 

The variants we get are distributed through Diamond N.A. and there is nothing that I have ever seen that even suggests that they are offered overseas.

 

Again, what I see are foreign reprints that use many of the variant covers but with different interiors, or covers that are unique to the overseas market that we don't get here.

 

It is a different market and should not be a part of the conversation.

 

-J.

 

Is this fact or opinion? And I'm not talking about the foreign editions that are published by Panini or one of the other foreign publishers.

 

Those same stores that carry those U.S. comics also had the same exact Diamond Previews. I guess it is possible those overseas shops are counted in the North American numbers. Do we have any non-North American/non-UK posters who can tell us how comic shops overseas order, if the U.S. variants are available there, and if the comics are distributed from a warehouse in the U.S. or overseas?

 

I honestly don't know, but after having seen how popular U.S. comics are overseas, I am interested in finding out.

Edited May 25, 2016 by rjrjr

[Jaydogrules]

RMA... There is No actual number that we can know !!!! AGREE

 

But we can use whatever we have to try to arrive at a guess right? it hurts no one ! As long as its not stated as a fact ! I stick to my guns that the JIM 633 most likely is not over 1000 and probably 2-3 cases. 450/675 very logical given the known factors...

 

why would they ever print double or triple what is needed, just to liquidate.

 

We know that at the most the UK is 15 percent of the total distribution numbers? on the high side. we know that just because 30,000/35,000 books where printed that only a percentage was FO cutoff with 50 or more. LOGIC

 

Did you know U.S. Marvel comics are also distributed to more than the UK overseas. I traveled Europe last year and just about every shop I visited had new Marvel comics. The exact same ones we have in the U.S. In English. I saw this in France, Belgium, Germany, etc.

 

It would be interesting to know how much those sales account for. I can see another 15% or more easily just from the other countries.

 

Aside from a few other European countries like Sweden, Netherlands, Switzerland, etc there's also...

 

Australia, new Zealand, INDIA, Philippines, Singapore, and probably some others.

 

Do these constitute HUGE #'s? Maybe, maybe not, but in aggregate it MIGHT in some cases represent another bump in variant print run, which may not insignificant, and may or may not be consistent (some variants might not even be offered internationally for whatever reason, or at different incentive levels).

 

The point is not that any single factor causes sooooo much uncertainty, although in some cases it might, but the point is that there's sooooo MANY factors that going into deciding print run (of any comic, including variants), with 99% of them being unknown to the public for any given issue, that essentially you're just closing your eyes and throwing darts at a moving board and then making a guess at what you hit.

 

The variants we get are distributed through Diamond N.A. and there is nothing that I have ever seen that even suggests that they are offered overseas.

 

Again, what I see are foreign reprints that use many of the variant covers but with different interiors, or covers that are unique to the overseas market that we don't get here.

 

It is a different market and should not be a part of the conversation.

 

-J.

 

Is this fact or opinion?

 

Those same stores that carry those U.S. comics also had the same exact Diamond Previews. I guess it is possible those overseas shops are counted in the North American numbers. Do we have any non-North American/non-UK posters who can tell us how comic shops overseas order, if the U.S. variants are available there, and if the comics are distributed from a warehouse in the U.S. or overseas?

 

I honestly don't know, but after having seen how popular U.S. comics are overseas, I am interested in learning.

 

The international market represents maaaaaaybe 10-15% over and above the published N.A. numbers, and I have never seen Diamond UK offering the same variants (although that's not to say the UK market doesn't get a crack at the same loser books like everyone else during the occasional variant dump) and publishers like Panini are offering different books altogether in the non-English speaking countries.

 

-J.

[revat]

RMA... There is No actual number that we can know !!!! AGREE

 

But we can use whatever we have to try to arrive at a guess right? it hurts no one ! As long as its not stated as a fact ! I stick to my guns that the JIM 633 most likely is not over 1000 and probably 2-3 cases. 450/675 very logical given the known factors...

 

why would they ever print double or triple what is needed, just to liquidate.

 

We know that at the most the UK is 15 percent of the total distribution numbers? on the high side. we know that just because 30,000/35,000 books where printed that only a percentage was FO cutoff with 50 or more. LOGIC

 

Did you know U.S. Marvel comics are also distributed to more than the UK overseas. I traveled Europe last year and just about every shop I visited had new Marvel comics. The exact same ones we have in the U.S. In English. I saw this in France, Belgium, Germany, etc.

 

It would be interesting to know how much those sales account for. I can see another 15% or more easily just from the other countries.

 

Aside from a few other European countries like Sweden, Netherlands, Switzerland, etc there's also...

 

Australia, new Zealand, INDIA, Philippines, Singapore, and probably some others.

 

Do these constitute HUGE #'s? Maybe, maybe not, but in aggregate it MIGHT in some cases represent another bump in variant print run, which may not insignificant, and may or may not be consistent (some variants might not even be offered internationally for whatever reason, or at different incentive levels).

 

The point is not that any single factor causes sooooo much uncertainty, although in some cases it might, but the point is that there's sooooo MANY factors that going into deciding print run (of any comic, including variants), with 99% of them being unknown to the public for any given issue, that essentially you're just closing your eyes and throwing darts at a moving board and then making a guess at what you hit.

 

The variants we get are distributed through Diamond N.A. and there is nothing that I have ever seen that even suggests that they are offered overseas.

 

Again, what I see are foreign reprints that use many of the variant covers but with different interiors, or covers that are unique to the overseas market that we don't get here.

 

It is a different market and should not be a part of the conversation.

 

-J.

 

Is this fact or opinion?

 

Those same stores that carry those U.S. comics also had the same exact Diamond Previews. I guess it is possible those overseas shops are counted in the North American numbers. Do we have any non-North American/non-UK posters who can tell us how comic shops overseas order, if the U.S. variants are available there, and if the comics are distributed from a warehouse in the U.S. or overseas?

 

I honestly don't know, but after having seen how popular U.S. comics are overseas, I am interested in learning.

 

I know the incentive variants are available in Australia. I've seen them on the shelves there.

Is it some or all the variants? have no clue.

Is it every store? Have no clue.

Are the distribution ratios the same? Have no clue

Which distributor(s) ships to them? Have no clue

Do they charge a heavy price on them in the stores? EFF YEAH!

Is whatever is available in Australia probably also available in New Zealand? I'd say 50/50 chance on that.

 

 

 

 

[Aweandlorder]

Is this fact or opinion? And I'm not talking about the foreign editions that are published by Panini ...

 

I had some foreign punani last night.. I think she was Finnish

[Jaydogrules]

RMA... There is No actual number that we can know !!!! AGREE

 

But we can use whatever we have to try to arrive at a guess right? it hurts no one ! As long as its not stated as a fact ! I stick to my guns that the JIM 633 most likely is not over 1000 and probably 2-3 cases. 450/675 very logical given the known factors...

 

why would they ever print double or triple what is needed, just to liquidate.

 

We know that at the most the UK is 15 percent of the total distribution numbers? on the high side. we know that just because 30,000/35,000 books where printed that only a percentage was FO cutoff with 50 or more. LOGIC

 

Did you know U.S. Marvel comics are also distributed to more than the UK overseas. I traveled Europe last year and just about every shop I visited had new Marvel comics. The exact same ones we have in the U.S. In English. I saw this in France, Belgium, Germany, etc.

 

It would be interesting to know how much those sales account for. I can see another 15% or more easily just from the other countries.

 

Aside from a few other European countries like Sweden, Netherlands, Switzerland, etc there's also...

 

Australia, new Zealand, INDIA, Philippines, Singapore, and probably some others.

 

Do these constitute HUGE #'s? Maybe, maybe not, but in aggregate it MIGHT in some cases represent another bump in variant print run, which may not insignificant, and may or may not be consistent (some variants might not even be offered internationally for whatever reason, or at different incentive levels).

 

The point is not that any single factor causes sooooo much uncertainty, although in some cases it might, but the point is that there's sooooo MANY factors that going into deciding print run (of any comic, including variants), with 99% of them being unknown to the public for any given issue, that essentially you're just closing your eyes and throwing darts at a moving board and then making a guess at what you hit.

 

The variants we get are distributed through Diamond N.A. and there is nothing that I have ever seen that even suggests that they are offered overseas.

 

Again, what I see are foreign reprints that use many of the variant covers but with different interiors, or covers that are unique to the overseas market that we don't get here.

 

It is a different market and should not be a part of the conversation.

 

-J.

 

Is this fact or opinion?

 

Those same stores that carry those U.S. comics also had the same exact Diamond Previews. I guess it is possible those overseas shops are counted in the North American numbers. Do we have any non-North American/non-UK posters who can tell us how comic shops overseas order, if the U.S. variants are available there, and if the comics are distributed from a warehouse in the U.S. or overseas?

 

I honestly don't know, but after having seen how popular U.S. comics are overseas, I am interested in learning.

 

I know the incentive variants are available in Australia. I've seen them on the shelves there.

Is it some or all the variants? have no clue.

Is it every store? Have no clue.

Are the distribution ratios the same? Have no clue

Which distributor(s) ships to them? Have no clue

Do they charge a heavy price on them in the stores? EFF YEAH!

Is whatever is available in Australia probably also available in New Zealand? I'd say 50/50 chance on that.

 

 

 

 

I've also seen some in foreign countries.

 

And the few times I have, they were acquired from the secondary market, not from Diamond direct.

 

-J.

[Prince Namor]

Could someone who objects to using the reported sales for an issue as a basis for the *estimate* of the print run of an incentive explain to me what a publisher has to gain by intentionally printing far more than they need, if they're only going to blow them out cheaply later on? What's to gain there? If there was a trail of evidence suggesting that the publisher was selling those variants at a markup later on, then there would be logic to the idea that the print run far exceeds the estimate based on sales, but it makes no sense for them to print far more if they don't need them and are going to sit on them (and pay Diamond to store them), only to let them go for pennies later.

 

Few things....

 

1. Who is saying they print "far more than they need"? That's the point: we don't know, but trying to estimate on an unrelated number is misleading at best.That's the reason why the numbers shouldn't be compared, above and beyond any other concerns.

 

For every X amount of copies of this regular book you order, you get/can purchase 1 copy of this incentive. That's the only concrete information we have about the incentive, and the publisher doesn't owe anybody anything beyond fulfilling those orders. That does not therefore mean that the two print runs are tied together by that distribution number. They're not. The publishers print what they want, and always have, for whatever reasons they have, whether it's precisely what they need down to the copy, or 10 times what they need to fulfill the incentive. We don't know.

 

Yes, the estimated sales of the regular version establishes an estimated BASELINE of possible incentive copies printed, true, but it's only a baseline. That is, "there were at least X copies printed." But the other side is open ended.

 

2. Who determines what Marvel "needs"? Doesn't Marvel determine what Marvel needs, for their own purposes?

 

3. Are you aware that Marvel warehoused around 3,000 Spiderman #1 Platinums for 15 years, until they were purchased by Todd McDevitt's New Dimension Comics around 2005? Why did Marvel print "far more than they needed", and then pay to store them for a decade and a half? Because they thought they needed them, and when they no longer thought that, they sold them.

 

And I guarantee you, McDevitt didn't pay anywhere near what they were worth on the market at the time.

 

4. Marvel prints millions of comic books every year. They aren't going to have much problem paying Diamond to store whatever amount they print above and beyond what they need.

 

5. It doesn't cost Marvel much more to print an extra X amount of copies than it does the regular book, since everything but the cover is the same. It costs Marvel about 50 cents a copy...and that's probably a high estimate for the big boys (vs. around $1.00/copy for 5-6k indy books.) So, if they are "blowing out" incentives for $1.25, $1.50, $2 each...they're not losing money. They're just selling books that they had about the same amount into as any other book, for about the same amount as they would get for any other book.

 

And you're right, they're not selling anything at a markup later on. Marvel doesn't care about that. They're not a back issue dealer. To Marvel and DC and others, however, these books are no different at all from every other book. It didn't cost them much more, if anything, to print them, it didn't cost them much more, if anything, to store them, and if they sell them for the same price they get for other books, they're not "selling them for pennies." You're thinking like a collector, or a dealer....not a publisher.

 

6. Nobody unintentionally prints much of anything.

 

No.

 

If anything, it is closer to a MAXIMUM CEILING of potential copies printed, since not every store will order enough quantities of a book to qualify for the incentive.

 

But in reality, once you factor back in printing overages for damages (placed at 10-15% tops by boardies knowledgeable of the printing industry) and courtesy copies, rounded up to the nearest case pack, it is VERY reasonable to use Comichron's N.A. distribution numbers to ESTIMATE a ratio variant's print run (which is all that I have seen anyone do on here, and they should be able to do so without being harassed, barked at or condescended to every single time).

 

-J.

 

Then why are their so many extras?