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Moderns that are heating up on ebay!
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63,730 posts in this topic

1 minute ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

It's at least 500. I've been to several Diamond Retailer Summits where they handed out "1:X" (most recently, the 1:50 Jim Lee sketch cover for Batman #50 at Baltimore last year), and everyone who attends gets one.

Verified...unverified.  Proven...unproven.  All I can say is yikes.  This terrifies me.

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2 hours ago, Chuck Gower said:

Yes, you and few flunkie's make up chit, and we dispute it and 99% of the board who reads it understands that you have no idea what you're talking about.

Not anymore. You were corrected.

Unverifiable. Complete fabrication. There is no one, anywhere with any credibility who says this, and anyone who does couldn't prove it anyway. Complete BS made up by you and your flunkie's.

I have no idea if they round up to case packs or not, I don't buy in case packs. Who are these other mysterious boardies? None that you can produce of course. More BS. I provided proof. Showed the conversations. Where are these mysterious beings who know so much yet have no actual proof. 

What a joke.

500 is limited quantities?

Here it is again, jay:

1:300 Superman Unchained #1 Jim Lee Sketch Variant

1:100 Sandman Overture #1 Sketch Variant

1:200 Sandman Overture #1 Sketch Variant

1:300 Fantastic Four Alex Ross Sketch Variant

1:50 Venom #1 Sketch Variant

500 of each of these... and every year they give out others... 500 EXTRA copies of all variants, 6 months, a year, TWO YEARS after the fact... still around.

There's PROOF.

Where's YOUR Proof. None.

Already done. YOU have yet to prove anything.

MY assertion is you CAN'T prove it in the first place. And you HAVEN'T.

The fact that I've SHOWN you have no idea what you're talking about is a bonus.

The PROOF is on YOU to prove. And you haven't.

You've lost all credibility jay. Only your flunkie's believe you. Everyone else here can see you have no idea what you're talking about.

You sir a charlatan.  Your "proof" is unverified, anecdotal nonsense, not even relevant to the point (?) you believe you're making, and three of the titles aren't even Marvel titles.

But Marvel is a "liar", believe only you, that it? 

Good to see your intense hatred of variants remains strong within you.

Peace and Good night. 

-J.

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4 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

You sir a charlatan.  Your "proof" is unverified, anecdotal nonsense, not even relevant to the point (?) you believe you're making, and three of the titles aren't even Marvel titles.

But Marvel is a "liar", believe only you, that it? 

Good to see your intense hatred of variants remains strong within you.

Peace and Good night. 

-J.

1

Once again, nothing. You have... NOTHING. You've been exposed as a fraud.

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9 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

It's at least 500. I've been to several Diamond Retailer Summits where they handed out "1:X" (most recently, the 1:50 Jim Lee sketch cover for Batman #50 at Baltimore last year), and everyone who attends gets one.

I wasn't referring to the retailer summits, but the variant sales. Those are being sold in those quantities?

I realize that there's nothing to prevent publishers from printing as many copies of a variant as they want, but it doesn't make financial sense to overprint a ton of copies that they're not going to sell or use as promotional material. With that in mind, after a year or two has passed and a variant isn't given away in large quantities in such a way, I think it's reasonable to use the Comichron numbers to get a sense of roughly how many copies might be available to the market. If, as a collector, I'm on the hunt for a variant I don't have, and I'm trying to establish a value that I'm willing to pay for the book, I want to factor in supply into the equation. For the record, I do think it's disingenuous or dishonest to promote those numbers as the print runs, if you're selling, because you don't know that that's the case.

So, question for everyone: keeping in mind what's mentioned above, can anyone suggest a *better* method of making that determination. (And since RMA has made this comment before, I understand that it may be an method with inaccurate results, or even wildly inaccurate results, but do you have a *better* way to inform yourself as much as possible, using the knowledge available to the average collector?)

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2 minutes ago, Carl Elvis said:

$575 for this one :popcorn:

Signed, but not Glossy.

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It seems to me that a greater proportion of Valiant fans than fans of other publishers seem to be "one of everything" collectors (perhaps because it might actually be doable). I wonder if the recent glossy prices are collectors trying to lock up that variant before the movie makes it unmanageable. Ultimately I'd like one of everything, but I don't see the necessity for print variations or errors.

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10 hours ago, Mapleleafvann said:

I think the book is a win in the long term.  I'm talking about the regular cover.  It was solicited as a Mattina Virgin Variant....and the market received a surprise McFarlane Virgin Variant, with a grand new character to boot.  What the actual impact or longevity of this character is anyone's guess, but I for one think it's a winner long term.

I scrambled to get a copy of that mcfarlane cover as it didn't land in my pull box..  I used to get all covers but  after the we love colourists edition of 8 or 9 covers I asked my LCS to ease up on giving me too many issues each month .. And then I missed the mcfarlane virgin and the misprint!! Sigh. Back to ordering  all covers again. 

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2 hours ago, GeeksAreMyPeeps said:

I wasn't referring to the retailer summits, but the variant sales. Those are being sold in those quantities?

I'm not sure what the difference is, whether they sell them in a sale, or give them away at the summits. It's all Diamond.

But as for the ones that are sold, Chuck (or anyone who has a Diamond acct) can help on that. Chuck and I were at a retailer summit together a couple of years ago, and Diamond mentioned there were some retailer incentive ("1:X") variants for sale at that very moment, so he went online and ordered a bunch while we sat there having lunch. Again: same type of books that people claim are "printed close to order."

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2 hours ago, GeeksAreMyPeeps said:

I realize that there's nothing to prevent publishers from printing as many copies of a variant as they want, but it doesn't make financial sense to overprint a ton of copies that they're not going to sell or use as promotional material.

The cost is all in the regular book. These variants cost very little to print. These are publishers who still print millions of comics a year. A few extra hundred or thousand on the retailer incentives is barely a blip. If they sell, through Diamond, a bunch of them at 30 cents net, they're probably breaking even...and, of course, they can write off acres of stuff for promo purposes (whether they sell them or not) and the like.

The point is this: no one knows. It's not one side saying "they print to order!!" and another side saying "they overprint by thousands!!"

It's one side saying they know how much the publishers print, and another side saying "nobody knows how much they print, or why." And that's the truth: we don't know. Why is ASM #667 1:100 so rare, while ASM #648 1:100 is pretty common? Why is Ultimate Spiderman #112 1:100 so common, it's practically worthless? I've got 10 or so copies myself, that I acquired out of sheer luck.

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10 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

I'm not sure what the difference is, whether they sell them in a sale, or give them away at the summits. It's all Diamond.

But as for the ones that are sold, Chuck (or anyone who has a Diamond acct) can help on that. Chuck and I were at a retailer summit together a couple of years ago, and Diamond mentioned there were some retailer incentive ("1:X") variants for sale at that very moment, so he went online and ordered a bunch while we sat there having lunch. Again: same type of books that people claim are "printed close to order."

The difference is that the giveaways may be planned prior to the printing, so they would be printing with that in mind.

If the quantities available for the sales aren't that large, that may be them liquidating ant overage to allow for damages, etc. Chuck illustrated a scenario where applying the ratio to the Comichron numbers results in less than the expected number to be necessary to fill orders for the incentives. If it's a relatively small number being sold, it's possible that the print run may not be all that more than what is needed to fulfill orders.

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14 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

The cost is all in the regular book. These variants cost very little to print. These are publishers who still print millions of comics a year. A few extra hundred or thousand on the retailer incentives is barely a blip. If they sell, through Diamond, a bunch of them at 30 cents net, they're probably breaking even...and, of course, they can write off acres of stuff for promo purposes (whether they sell them or not) and the like.

The point is this: no one knows. It's not one side saying "they print to order!!" and another side saying "they overprint by thousands!!"

It's one side saying they know how much the publishers print, and another side saying "nobody knows how much they print, or why." And that's the truth: we don't know. Why is ASM #667 1:100 so rare, while ASM #648 1:100 is pretty common? Why is Ultimate Spiderman #112 1:100 so common, it's practically worthless? I've got 10 or so copies myself, that I acquired out of sheer luck.

Agreed, no one knows for sure how many are printed. But you didn't answer the question; do you have a better way of making a best guess as to how many copies might be available? Obviously you can update your guesstimate as new information becomes available (e.g. news of a giveaway at a summit, or personal research of what's actually available for sale from a variety of outlets).

Also, the cost is not *all* in the regular book. The bulk of the cost, perhaps. But any business that wants to be successful is going to be aware of the costs and plan as necessary to reduce waste.

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1 minute ago, GeeksAreMyPeeps said:

The difference is that the giveaways may be planned prior to the printing, so they would be printing with that in mind.

But it's not a difference, because they could also print to have some on hand to sell at a later date.

Right...? 

And the regularity of these sales at least suggests that that may be true. Keep in mind that Diamond, as much as their actions say otherwise, DOES want to keep retailers in business...offering cheap variants at a later date...and cheap, as in "much less than an actual regular new book would cost the retailer"...is a way to help retailers. And Diamond is INCREDIBLY inefficient, and screws things up on a weekly basis.

I know there are retailers who love these variant sales, because they can sell them to customers as back issues, either in person or online, for around cover price, so it's a great deal for them.

I'm not suggesting that's the case...but it can be, and if it is, then it just demonstrates how much we don't know about publisher printing practices...same as with the giveaways. Some of the giveaways have been "old" variants...books that had been out months at that time...and some are new. If there are hundreds that are printed, in anticipation of giving them away at the summits, then that demonstrates how useless using the Comichron estimates really are...those copies aren't even factored in to the "estimates" that people are making up.

As for the sales...the quantities available have been far in excess of "overages for damage." The Miracleman incentives that Marvel dumped in 2015 are a good example of that.

https://www.bleedingcool.com/2015/05/15/marvel-liquidates-miracleman-1-10-in-all-its-variants/

 

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3 minutes ago, GeeksAreMyPeeps said:

Agreed, no one knows for sure how many are printed. But you didn't answer the question; do you have a better way of making a best guess as to how many copies might be available? Obviously you can update your guesstimate as new information becomes available (e.g. news of a giveaway at a summit, or personal research of what's actually available for sale from a variety of outlets).

Also, the cost is not *all* in the regular book. The bulk of the cost, perhaps. But any business that wants to be successful is going to be aware of the costs and plan as necessary to reduce waste.

"All" was not meant to be literal, and was a figure of speech. Obviously, it's not "$0.00" to print the variants. 

The answer to your question is still "No, no one has a better way to estimate." So, perhaps what should be done is: stop trying to estimate.

Or...

Find some way to convince the publishers to release the information.

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6 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

But it's not a difference, because they could also print to have some on hand to sell at a later date.

Right...? 

And the regularity of these sales at least suggests that that may be true. Keep in mind that Diamond, as much as their actions say otherwise, DOES want to keep retailers in business...offering cheap variants at a later date...and cheap, as in "much less than an actual regular new book would cost the retailer"...is a way to help retailers. And Diamond is INCREDIBLY inefficient, and screws things up on a weekly basis.

I know there are retailers who love these variant sales, because they can sell them to customers as back issues, either in person or online, for around cover price, so it's a great deal for them.

I'm not suggesting that's the case...but it can be, and if it is, then it just demonstrates how much we don't know about publisher printing practices...same as with the giveaways. Some of the giveaways have been "old" variants...books that had been out months at that time...and some are new. If there are hundreds that are printed, in anticipation of giving them away at the summits, then that demonstrates how useless using the Comichron estimates really are...those copies aren't even factored in to the "estimates" that people are making up.

As for the sales...the quantities available have been far in excess of "overages for damage." The Miracleman incentives that Marvel dumped in 2015 are a good example of that.

https://www.bleedingcool.com/2015/05/15/marvel-liquidates-miracleman-1-10-in-all-its-variants/

 

Nothing in the Bleeding Cool link suggests a huge volume available.

And yes, publishers *could* print some to sell at a later date, but just Diamond wants to keep retailers in business, publishers want to keep customers buying comics, so if they regularly over-published and flooded the market with variants, that would eventually have a negative effect on sales, so I'm skeptical that that happens.

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25 minutes ago, GeeksAreMyPeeps said:

Nothing in the Bleeding Cool link suggests a huge volume available.

"Huge" is a qualitative term that doesn't have much meaning. What do you consider "huge"? Bleeding Cool says "a bunch." Both terms have no practical meaning. There were thousands of copies available, and, if you'll notice...they encompassed 1-10, meaning Marvel held onto all of them, at least for a while.

25 minutes ago, GeeksAreMyPeeps said:

And yes, publishers *could* print some to sell at a later date, but just Diamond wants to keep retailers in business, publishers want to keep customers buying comics, so if they regularly over-published and flooded the market with variants, that would eventually have a negative effect on sales, so I'm skeptical that that happens.

And publishers *could* print to give away at summits. The point is that you don't know. No one does. 

Again, those are your terms. What does "over-published" and "flooded" mean? These are variants that are printed in the range of 1,000-5,000 or so, and they have little effect on the number of regular copies printed, distributed, and sold, other than encouraging some retailers to order more than they can sell, in the hopes of hitting the incentive variant lottery. Frankly, you should be more concerned with THOSE numbers...copies printed solely because a retailer hopes to make a little more money on the incentive, and for which (the additional regular copies, that is) there is precisely zero demand...than the comparatively tiny numbers of "over-published" incentive variants.

In other words: a "flood" of a few hundred to a few thousand copies of incentive variants, worldwide...books regular readers don't bother with in the first place...is not going to have a "negative effect on sales"...other than, perhaps, those variants themselves. 

Let's go with an older example...you're aware that the official numbers from Valiant were that they printed 5,000 of the "gold" variants in the early 90s, correct? And how did Valiant distribute those books? They gave them away, one by one, to those...stores, fans, whomever...who promoted Valiant in some special way.

They held on to those books for years. When Valiant was sold to Acclaim in 1996, there were people...Joe Petrilak among them...who were allowed to raid the Valiant offices and take whatever they wanted. What they found was nearly the entire print runs of some of those variants, like Psi-Lords #1 gold and Ninjak #1 gold. 

Why did Valiant "over-publish" those variants? They obviously didn't use them, or even most of them, the way they were intended. And what happened with them? They were stored, some for years, until they were carted off by collectors and dealers to be quietly hoarded for the next 20+ years. I had a full case...150 copies...of Ninjak #1 gold. A full case. I gave a lot of them away. I sold a lot of them. I still have perhaps 20 or so. I have 300 copies of Psi-Lords #1 gold. I have 150 copies of Hard Corps #1 gold. 

Yes, those weren't INCENTIVE variants, but they were certainly the pre-cursors of such, and were treated AS incentives...just not necessarily ordering incentives.

Your hypothesis would be sound if we were talking about overprinting regular books, in the tens and hundreds of thousands, like Valiant and others did in the 90s.

But we're not.

Edited by RockMyAmadeus
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