Doug Schmell cashing in his vaulted massive collecion. Poll: Is this the top?

[COI]

Think about all the new books that have come to market and I think it's fair to say there are a lot of buyers out there.

 

There are definitely a lot of buyers, but a lot (maybe most) of those buyers are also sellers, which means that as books are coming in, books also have to go out. At some point there will be too many books out there.

 

Too many books might be the wrong way to phrase it.

 

Remember that in economics whenever prices drop low enough, people start buying again. It's true in EVERY cyclical economy whether it's stocks or comics.

 

So even if the market is flooded with books and prices drop as soon as prices drop to a certain point people start buying again propping them up. It's human nature and it's happened time and time again.

 

The problem with this is that comics are not stocks; there is a relatively tiny group of collectors keeping the high grade market afloat; if this tiny group experiences a "crash", most will likely exit the hobby and not return in the same capacity if at all, even if prices are low. I would even say ESPECIALLY if prices are low. Strong prices get people in a frenzy to buy, low prices turn people off, because people tend to follow the herd. Buyers want to see other people spending to feel comfortable with their own buying.

 

Remember, the collector base is aging. The increase in prices that we've seen can largely be attributed to the fact that the people with the most emotional/nostalgic attachment to these books have hit the prime of their financial lives. If enough of these spenders get burned by a crash, the market may never recover. Does this mean no one will be buying books? No.

[bluechip]

The Billy Wright collection, the Pedigree Comics collection, numerous Million Dollar+ sales, the great SparkleCity ebay auctions this year, an interminable stream of weekly Comiclink, Heritage, and Comic Connect auctions with an apparently endless supply of killer books that get flipped incessantly, this cycle can't go on indefinitely

It really is mind-boggling that it has gotten this far.

 

Yeah, it really is. Donut used to have a good punch list of the types of books that were likely to depreciate during the great crash debates of 2002/2003/2004, broadly characterized as non-keys, non-HG post-1965, moderns, etc.,. There was a lot of fools gold in the early years of CGC.

 

I think that list could be expanded significantly now to include almost any Silver or Bronze Age non-key, in almost every grade, and many of the late Silver and most BA keys in anything but HG. As much as I love GA (and that's what I've purchased a lot of this year), in the last 1-2 years the high demand mainstream GA DC's and Timely's have priced themselves above what the average middle class comic book collector can afford.

 

I guess the esoteric and PCH Golden/Atom age genres have been more stable price-wise, but without continuing media exposure (Marvel/DC movies), or contemporary titles, one has to wonder how long the prices on the non-mainstream "classic cover" books (Suspense 3) will hold up.

 

I do feel a little more comfortable with the market for "scarce books", which are different from "scarce in grade" books, but when there's no demand for a book in low/mid-grade (or huge spread spreads between a VG or Fine copy and a NM copy), the outlook for the top grades is not really that rosy.

 

Wow, I just realized my 10-year anniversary on the boards was earlier this week, I'm getting old!

 

+1

 

You got your "scarce" and then you got your "scarce in grade", and then you got your "scarce in label".

 

 

 

 

[COI]

Wow, I just realized my 10-year anniversary on the boards was earlier this week, I'm getting old!

 

Happy Anniversary, Banner!

 

 

[aggr1103]

Certainly there are some baby boomers selling off their collections or people older than that passing away, but there are also a whole generation of young people who were teenagers during the todd mac/jim lee and friends explosion in the late 80's-early 90's who are just now starting to have serious disposable income. And many of those people were 'nerds', who are making some serious bank and aren't ashamed to spend money on 'nerdy' stuff anymore, with the mainstreaming of comic culture.

 

Where someone rich may have had some art of hot a artist in the past, now its becoming slowly more en vogue to have a display of key silver age marvel comics mounted on a wall. And that comic may change with each new movie that comes out (Avengers is up now, but might flip it in a few weeks for an AF 15, which may then be flipped for a key Batman w/early Catwoman). This happens more than you think.

 

So I don't know about bubbles and what not, but I'm in my early thirties and my collection is slowly growing with my salary and my knowledge of classic comics. And as I have no sentimental value to older comics, I have no issues flipping key comics instantaneously for profit or for other comics.

 

I was going to post the exact same thing. I used to drool at the wall books at comic shows and its an awesome feeling to actually have the disposable income to buy them now. Make no mistake - there is new, or 'newish', money being injected into this hobby by successful professionals in their early to mid 30's. Roy I've heard you muse several times about seeing younger collectors at shows actually recognize the significance of certain golden age books. We might be the last great generation of collectors, but we are out there.

 

 

[the blob]

So it wasn't entirely theft, but illegal "borrowing"...definitely not the kind of thing that casts him in a good light given what his current business is as a consignor of comics, definitely.

-----------

 

one could argue that giving oneself an interest free loan at the expense of someone to whom you have a fiduciary duty by liberating funds owed to them and telling them "the check hasn't come" falls under some sort of "theft" crime

[TrippyMcSkippy-migration]

[FFB]

Think about all the new books that have come to market and I think it's fair to say there are a lot of buyers out there.

 

There are definitely a lot of buyers, but a lot (maybe most) of those buyers are also sellers, which means that as books are coming in, books also have to go out. At some point there will be too many books out there.

 

Keep in mind that no one has a better idea of how deep or well-heeled the buyer pool is for books of this quality than Heritage does. If the market weren't deep enough to absorb this much material, they would have broken it up into a few auctions to avoid crashing their market.

 

The fact is that Marvel's white-hot movies have resulted in silver age Marvels selling for crazy amounts of money. Celebrities who have millions of dollars and only want the very best for their collections will probably be represented at this auction. I think that the buying pool for a collection like this is as high as it has ever been now, and with million-dollar sales, comic books as an asset class will tend to attract wealthier collectors. James Cameron, Leo DiCaprio, and Kevin Smith are comic book fans. If they aren't interested in bidding on Doug's books, what are they interested in bidding on?

[VintageComics]

Roy I've heard you muse several times about seeing younger collectors at shows actually recognize the significance of certain golden age books. We might be the last great generation of collectors, but we are out there.

 

 

It was a younger kid that approached me with his mom at the NYC show last year and was talking to me about World War 2 characters in comics. I was floored.

 

I have no misconception that comics are not forever, but sometimes people use auction prices (or just a limited segment of the market that they can see from their laptop) to gauge the market and there is more to the comic market than auction prices. There are live con floor sales, local comic shop back issue sales, sales between collectors, trading etc.

 

I can say that in my experience, con floor sales are generally very strong. I've been on the convention circuit for a few years now and they generally seem to be doing pretty well with each passing year and I'm a new con dealer with almost no customer history.

 

The dealers that have been around a while seem to have regular buyers at most shows.

 

Also, I have been selling a consignment Avengers collection for a boardie for about 8 months now. I realize that Avengers are hot but I have literally sold almost every book above GPA by a large margin...that means that books that are recorded even as recent sales (selling during the run up of the movie at auction) are selling for much more - sometimes 50% or 75% more.

 

What I'm saying is that you can't gauge the state of the hobby from the internet alone. It's such a small slice of the pie to try and extrapolate from that it's not very accurate.

 

That's my experience, anyway.

 

 

[the blob]

Here's the thing, he lives around NYC, right? You do realize that it takes a minimum of $100,000 a year to live like a human being anywhere around here (and really more like $300K if you have a family) unless you're 22 and cool with sharing a place with 4 other guys/gals, right? (And then you don't notice it because you're wasted 5 nights a week.) We barely scrape by on twice that. Seriously, Archie Bunker's house would cost $750K-$1 million now. The "King of Queens" house would be $600-$800K. Monica's apartment on "Friends" would run about $5500 a month. The "Everybody Loves Raymond" house might be pushing seven figures. Aunt May's house would be about $700-$900K (and if she's in Forest Hills Gardens, over a million.) How anyone in the middle class can afford to live here unless they have already made a killing in the real estate market (like I did) is beyond me.

 

So, honestly, a 50something disbarred attorney who sells comics on the internet for a living being forced to sell off his better stuff in order to maintain his lifestyle shouldn't be all that shocking. You need to sell/consign a heck of a lot of good comics to be pulling in over $100K steadily.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

 

They have all be well received and absorbed into the market.

 

Our own Cheetah sold multiple runs (X-men, Avengers, Spider-man? and a few others) and they were no slouches.

 

Yes, but didn't Jeff also say that many of the Spideys he consigned with CC ended up selling for new GPA lows? Getting absorbed into the market isn't a problem....its getting absorbed without the seller losing his shirt that may be the real issue.

[Silver Surfer]

I hear what your saying but............

 

 

Pedigree Comics, Inc.

12541 Equine Lane

Wellington, FL. 33414

[chrisco37]

Here's the thing, he lives around NYC, right? You do realize that it takes a minimum of $100,000 a year to live like a human being anywhere around here unless you're 22 and cool with sharing a place with 4 other guys/gals, right? (And then you don't notice it because you're wasted 5 nights a week.) We barely scrape by on twice that. Seriously, Archie Bunker's house would cost $750K-$1 million now. The "King of Queens" house would be $600-$800K. Monica's apartment on "Friends" would run about $5500 a month. The "Everybody Loves Raymond" house might be pushing seven figures. Aunt May's house would be about $700-$900K (and if she's in Forest Hills Gardens, over a million.) How anyone in the middle class can afford to live here unless they have already made a killing in the real estate market (like I did) is beyond me.

 

So, honestly, a 50something disbarred attorney who sells comics on the internet for a living being forced to sell off his better stuff in order to maintain his lifestyle shouldn't be all that shocking. You need to sell/consign a heck of a lot of good comics to be pulling in over $100K steadily.

 

I think Doug has lived in Florida for quite a few years now.

[Mmehdy]

As I have predicted from DAY One 2012 will be a record year........... HERE IS MY TAKE ON THE SALE:

 

Doug Schmell worked hard to get, in my opinion, one of the 3 best marvel collections quality wise in the world.If you read his web site he sold the collection thru HA.COM to not create a conflict of interest with his web site. I find that statement hard to believe when you to the vault section and see the number of books that he has sold in the past. He does give ha.com's market ability also as a reason, and I tend to believe that is real reason behind his choice not to sell them himself.

 

Doug Schmell knows the market, knows about quality books and was the "man" when he spent the bucks to get the best possible material. I have been saying this on the boards for a long long time. Buy CGC, Buy top grade. He had the right plan and now he wants that plan to pay off and it will.

 

But there is a LOT of upside to go on the mega-keys and when this is gonna shake out the TOP 20 most expensive books in the hobby...probably 8 or more will be marvel. Expect world record prices in this auction with a lot of action from FOREIGN buyers as well as new investment groups and wealthy individuals. This sale is GREAT for comic book fandom, Great for collectors, and great for Ha and Doug. It's a Win Win for everybody.

 

It is a good time to buy and a good time to sell. I would upgrade like he did if you are a marvel collector and sell you lessor condition copies probably on Ha.com.

 

Doug knows that 2012 is a unique year in comic book history.....his sale shows that he agrees with my opinion.

[Silver Surfer]

As I have predicted from DAY One 2012 will be a record year........... HERE IS MY TAKE ON THE SALE:

 

 

Doug knows that 2012 is a unique year in comic book history.....his sale shows that he agrees with my opinion.

 

Give it a rest already Mitch. Are you even curious to know what 95% of the people think of you on these boards? Don't ask.

[VintageComics]

 

They have all be well received and absorbed into the market.

 

Our own Cheetah sold multiple runs (X-men, Avengers, Spider-man? and a few others) and they were no slouches.

 

Yes, but didn't Jeff also say that many of the Spideys he consigned with CC ended up selling for new GPA lows? Getting absorbed into the market isn't a problem....its getting absorbed without the seller losing his shirt that may be the real issue.

 

Not every book is a winner at auction. You'd know that best.

 

 

[bluechip]

As I have predicted from DAY One 2012 will be a record year........... HERE IS MY TAKE ON THE SALE:

 

Doug Schmell worked hard to get, in my opinion, one of the 3 best marvel collections quality wise in the world.If you read his web site he sold the collection thru HA.COM to not create a conflict of interest with his web site. I find that statement hard to believe when you to the vault section and see the number of books that he has sold in the past. He does give ha.com's market ability also as a reason, and I tend to believe that is real reason behind his choice not to sell them himself.

 

Doug Schmell knows the market, knows about quality books and was the "man" when he spent the bucks to get the best possible material. I have been saying this on the boards for a long long time. Buy CGC, Buy top grade. He had the right plan and now he wants that plan to pay off and it will.

 

But there is a LOT of upside to go on the mega-keys and when this is gonna shake out the TOP 20 most expensive books in the hobby...probably 8 or more will be marvel. Expect world record prices in this auction with a lot of action from FOREIGN buyers as well as new investment groups and wealthy individuals. This sale is GREAT for comic book fandom, Great for collectors, and great for Ha and Doug. It's a Win Win for everybody.

 

It is a good time to buy and a good time to sell. I would upgrade like he did if you are a marvel collector and sell you lessor condition copies probably on Ha.com.

 

Doug knows that 2012 is a unique year in comic book history.....his sale shows that he agrees with my opinion.

 

Doug's sale of a huge amount of books today shows that he knows they have nowhere to go but up?

 

 

[Mmehdy]

you cannot stand it, when I am dead right. As I recall a number of board members said 2011 was it, that all the good stuff had been sold and not another major collection was gonna be found...then Billy Wright....hello...SS this is just the begining of best comic book year in the history of comic book collecting and all of those private sales(batman 1 850K) which are public and the big ones that are not.

[Silver Surfer]

NO I just can't stand it when your being are such a tool.

[Transplant]

you cannot stand it, when I am dead right. As I recall a number of board members said 2011 was it, that all the good stuff had been sold and not another major collection was gonna be found...then Billy Wright....hello...SS this is just the begining of best comic book year in the history of comic book collecting and all of those private sales(batman 1 850K) which are public and the big ones that are not.

Name them.

 

Typical straw man argument and not the good one.

[Rip]

As I have predicted from DAY One 2012 will be a record year........... HERE IS MY TAKE ON THE SALE:

 

Doug Schmell worked hard to get, in my opinion, one of the 3 best marvel collections quality wise in the world.If you read his web site he sold the collection thru HA.COM to not create a conflict of interest with his web site. I find that statement hard to believe when you to the vault section and see the number of books that he has sold in the past. He does give ha.com's market ability also as a reason, and I tend to believe that is real reason behind his choice not to sell them himself.

 

Doug Schmell knows the market, knows about quality books and was the "man" when he spent the bucks to get the best possible material. I have been saying this on the boards for a long long time. Buy CGC, Buy top grade. He had the right plan and now he wants that plan to pay off and it will.

 

But there is a LOT of upside to go on the mega-keys and when this is gonna shake out the TOP 20 most expensive books in the hobby...probably 8 or more will be marvel. Expect world record prices in this auction with a lot of action from FOREIGN buyers as well as new investment groups and wealthy individuals. This sale is GREAT for comic book fandom, Great for collectors, and great for Ha and Doug. It's a Win Win for everybody.

 

It is a good time to buy and a good time to sell. I would upgrade like he did if you are a marvel collector and sell you lessor condition copies probably on Ha.com.

 

Doug knows that 2012 is a unique year in comic book history.....his sale shows that he agrees with my opinion.

 

 

My small take on it. I don't think this is all according to Doug's plan.

 

nuff said