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When will/will the WALKING DEAD bubble burst?
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Started by The-Collector,

3,607 posts in this topic

Cyclops

Cyclops

Posted
Posted

What was a blue label #1 in 9.8 selling for at the start of this year?

 

It looks to be selling for ~$3000 at the moment which is shocking, to me. I honestly thought the ceiling on blue 9.8's would be $2000 when it hit that price. Just keeps going...

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comix4fun

comix4fun

Posted
Posted
What was a blue label #1 in 9.8 selling for at the start of this year?

 

It looks to be selling for ~$3000 at the moment which is shocking, to me. I honestly thought the ceiling on blue 9.8's would be $2000 when it hit that price. Just keeps going...

 

 

Actually, for the last 4-5 seasons (perhaps even longer), the book spikes when the new season starts, sinks when the mid-season break kicks in, spikes when it returns in to finish the season and then sinks after the season finale.

 

I've bought at least 10 copies of the book during the "off season" for numbers ranging between 25% and 40% below the GPA high from in season and then resell them when the new season launches or the finale is about to air for a number that's back at or above the GPA high from the previous season.

 

It's one of the more consistent books over that time period to predict rise and fall. It hasn't been a steady ride upwards by any means.

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aerischan

aerischan

Posted
Posted
Actually, for the last 4-5 seasons (perhaps even longer), the book spikes when the new season starts, sinks when the mid-season break kicks in, spikes when it returns in to finish the season and then sinks after the season finale.

 

I've bought at least 10 copies of the book during the "off season" for numbers ranging between 25% and 40% below the GPA high from in season and then resell them when the new season launches or the finale is about to air for a number that's back at or above the GPA high from the previous season.

 

It's one of the more consistent books over that time period to predict rise and fall. It hasn't been a steady ride upwards by any means.

That's actually pretty interesting. Day trading (or in this case season trading) with comics. hm

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pemart1966

pemart1966

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Posted
Why does everyone worry about bubbles bursting? Just enjoy the show while we have it.

Seems a shame that people want to downplay such a great show.

Comic collectors are an odd bunch. When they don't have comic book shows they complain , when they do they complain.

(shrug)

 

+1

 

Couldn't agree more. That's why I'm being mildly snarky with my comments. :shy:

 

-J.

 

Please help me. Why is it okay to have multiple threads pumping books all over the board (modern variants, dozens of fan clubs in Gold-Silver-Bronze-Copper-Modern, membership clubs and many many other examples), but not okay to have a thread questioning the value of a certain book?

 

Both sides of the coin have a place in comic education: the fan and the dissenting opinion. When you are talking about books over $1,000 I don't think it is unreasonable to ask: "why is the value where it is," "where is it potentially going" and "should I buy?"

 

It doesn't have to be construed as negative, not everyone is a fan. If all we do is "pump" books in every thread, how will we ever get an honest opinion? What a boring place that would be...

 

Anybody can start whatever thread they like. Although I think anyone expecting to give an honestly earned "I told you so" in this thread , 5, 6, 10+(?) years after the fact will look more than just a little foolish.

 

And if we have gotten to a place on these boards where fans /admirers/owners of books/artists/ages, etc. cannot discuss their prized possessions without being accused of "pumping" then we are in a sad and cynical place indeed, and might as well just shut the whole thing down.

 

-J.

 

Of course people can and should post about the books they love, which to your point is a huge part of the boards. My only point is that people should be able to criticize and challenge the status quo as well. I didn't accuse you of pumping books and if it came off that way I apologize.

 

What I don't understand is why you are (self admittedly) getting "snarky..?"

 

I'm just a big fan of the show and I hope it has many more seasons ahead of it. I even started liking the spin off show during the last 3 episodes last season when it finally seemed to find its own identity. And looking back at some of the comments in this thread from 2012 and 2013 kind of makes me :eyeroll:lol:foryou:

 

-J.

 

 

Great! I personally skew the other direction and find the TV show repetive and sensationalist. They are already talking about Negan killing someone else in the mid-season finale to draw viewers.

 

It's cool you like it, a lot of people do. Maybe it will turn viewership around.

 

Lucille's been very quiet on the show lately hasn't she? hm

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comix4fun

comix4fun

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Posted
Actually, for the last 4-5 seasons (perhaps even longer), the book spikes when the new season starts, sinks when the mid-season break kicks in, spikes when it returns in to finish the season and then sinks after the season finale.

 

I've bought at least 10 copies of the book during the "off season" for numbers ranging between 25% and 40% below the GPA high from in season and then resell them when the new season launches or the finale is about to air for a number that's back at or above the GPA high from the previous season.

 

It's one of the more consistent books over that time period to predict rise and fall. It hasn't been a steady ride upwards by any means.

That's actually pretty interesting. Day trading (or in this case season trading) with comics. hm

 

 

It hasn't worked, or the model has been different, with almost any other TV or movie related book or character.

 

If it's a villain to be featured on TV or in a film. The rise and run up of value starts upon announcement of inclusion of the villain, spikes in heat at the first full trailer, continues to rise in value until roughly a week before release....and then starts a slow downward slide in demand and price. Villains are one shots for films. Used and discarded.

 

Hero books from established characters, like SA marvel, tend to have a run up in demand and price and then remain or maintain prices with a smaller decline than the villain books, and will rise again when a new movie comes out. Those gaps, however, can be several years apart.

 

TWD #1 can have boom and bust cycles repeating twice a year. That's far more frequent and dramatic in % changes than almost any other book I've seen.

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Broke as a Joke

Broke as a Joke

Posted
Posted
Actually, for the last 4-5 seasons (perhaps even longer), the book spikes when the new season starts, sinks when the mid-season break kicks in, spikes when it returns in to finish the season and then sinks after the season finale.

 

I've bought at least 10 copies of the book during the "off season" for numbers ranging between 25% and 40% below the GPA high from in season and then resell them when the new season launches or the finale is about to air for a number that's back at or above the GPA high from the previous season.

 

It's one of the more consistent books over that time period to predict rise and fall. It hasn't been a steady ride upwards by any means.

That's actually pretty interesting. Day trading (or in this case season trading) with comics. hm

 

 

It hasn't worked, or the model has been different, with almost any other TV or movie related book or character.

 

If it's a villain to be featured on TV or in a film. The rise and run up of value starts upon announcement of inclusion of the villain, spikes in heat at the first full trailer, continues to rise in value until roughly a week before release....and then starts a slow downward slide in demand and price. Villains are one shots for films. Used and discarded.

 

Hero books from established characters, like SA marvel, tend to have a run up in demand and price and then remain or maintain prices with a smaller decline than the villain books, and will rise again when a new movie comes out. Those gaps, however, can be several years apart.

 

TWD #1 can have boom and bust cycles repeating twice a year. That's far more frequent and dramatic in % changes than almost any other book I've seen.

 

But all of that stops once the show is taken off the air, yes? In the 7 years the TV show has been around the book as went from (guesstimates) $500 - $3000 range. Take away the show and let's see where it settles in at.

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comix4fun

comix4fun

Posted
Posted
Actually, for the last 4-5 seasons (perhaps even longer), the book spikes when the new season starts, sinks when the mid-season break kicks in, spikes when it returns in to finish the season and then sinks after the season finale.

 

I've bought at least 10 copies of the book during the "off season" for numbers ranging between 25% and 40% below the GPA high from in season and then resell them when the new season launches or the finale is about to air for a number that's back at or above the GPA high from the previous season.

 

It's one of the more consistent books over that time period to predict rise and fall. It hasn't been a steady ride upwards by any means.

That's actually pretty interesting. Day trading (or in this case season trading) with comics. hm

 

 

It hasn't worked, or the model has been different, with almost any other TV or movie related book or character.

 

If it's a villain to be featured on TV or in a film. The rise and run up of value starts upon announcement of inclusion of the villain, spikes in heat at the first full trailer, continues to rise in value until roughly a week before release....and then starts a slow downward slide in demand and price. Villains are one shots for films. Used and discarded.

 

Hero books from established characters, like SA marvel, tend to have a run up in demand and price and then remain or maintain prices with a smaller decline than the villain books, and will rise again when a new movie comes out. Those gaps, however, can be several years apart.

 

TWD #1 can have boom and bust cycles repeating twice a year. That's far more frequent and dramatic in % changes than almost any other book I've seen.

 

But all of that stops once the show is taken off the air, yes? In the 7 years the TV show has been around the book as went from (guesstimates) $500 - $3000 range. Take away the show and let's see where it settles in at.

 

 

Right.

 

The major impetus supporting elevated values is new stimulus....new episodes, repeated airing, etc.

 

I am sure it settles at a higher number than pre-show. It's part of pop culture history now. There's going to be a lot of nostalgia, appreciation, etc. for it in 20-30 years.

 

I can see a dip in the two years after it leaves the air, then settling at a number followed by a steady increase over time.

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1Cool

1Cool

Posted
Posted
Actually, for the last 4-5 seasons (perhaps even longer), the book spikes when the new season starts, sinks when the mid-season break kicks in, spikes when it returns in to finish the season and then sinks after the season finale.

 

I've bought at least 10 copies of the book during the "off season" for numbers ranging between 25% and 40% below the GPA high from in season and then resell them when the new season launches or the finale is about to air for a number that's back at or above the GPA high from the previous season.

 

It's one of the more consistent books over that time period to predict rise and fall. It hasn't been a steady ride upwards by any means.

That's actually pretty interesting. Day trading (or in this case season trading) with comics. hm

 

Isn't that already called Flipping?

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aerischan

aerischan

Posted
Posted
Actually, for the last 4-5 seasons (perhaps even longer), the book spikes when the new season starts, sinks when the mid-season break kicks in, spikes when it returns in to finish the season and then sinks after the season finale.

 

I've bought at least 10 copies of the book during the "off season" for numbers ranging between 25% and 40% below the GPA high from in season and then resell them when the new season launches or the finale is about to air for a number that's back at or above the GPA high from the previous season.

 

It's one of the more consistent books over that time period to predict rise and fall. It hasn't been a steady ride upwards by any means.

That's actually pretty interesting. Day trading (or in this case season trading) with comics. hm

 

Isn't that already called Flipping?

I guess I just view flipping as a quick one time deal. Buy a hot book from LCS, etc at a low price and then turn for quick profit on ebay.

 

It seems comix4fun is buying/selling the same book over and over during predictable lows/highs which I find quite fascinating.

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Guardian Comics

Guardian Comics

Posted
Posted
Noticed a goofy trend on WD. Anyone who directly attacks Negan gets a pass, Darryl, Carl and whatshername on Sunday. Someone else gets it instead.

 

I'm not sure if it's goofy or not. You take the chance and then you have to live with the guilt forever...brilliant actually.

 

Jim

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Quicksilver Signs

Quicksilver Signs

Posted
Posted
Noticed a goofy trend on WD. Anyone who directly attacks Negan gets a pass, Darryl, Carl and whatshername on Sunday. Someone else gets it instead.

 

I'm not sure if it's goofy or not. You take the chance and then you have to live with the guilt forever...brilliant actually.

 

Jim

 

If you're the type to blame yourself for a psychopath's actions I could see your point. Not sure it applies in a survival of the fittest type world, kill the wolves, enslave the sheep. In the end he leaves the strongest alive who will inevitably be his undoing.

 

Do none of his minions want Carl's blood for taking out one of their crew? I had friends on that Death Star

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ComicConnoisseur

ComicConnoisseur

Posted
Posted

 

GPA sales

Walking Dead 1 CGC 9.8

2014 $1,982

2015 $2,075

12 month Avg $2,725

90 day $3,155

Last sale $3,040

 

 

Those numbers are astounding. Putting in higher highs for two years now. I remember a bunch of folks complaining about missing this one and how it was too late to fork out $2K for a Near Mint/Mint slab. Turns out there ended up still being 50% ROR on the table. And its not like liquidity was thin in 2014. Plenty always up for auction on ebay and BIN/BOs as well.

I remember Walking Dead 1 CGC 9.8 when it was $1,000.

My argument to support for Walking Dead #1 was there was only 7,000 printed.

That`s mega-rare compared to all the other keys.

Think about that 7,000 printed with millions of fans.

 

I can`t think of any other key that has such a low print run with so many fans other than TMNT #1, and we know what the prices of TMNT #1 are now.

 

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ComicConnoisseur

ComicConnoisseur

Posted
Posted

 

Star Wars has had exactly one good movie out of 7, and still seems to be doing fine as a franchise as well.

 

 

 

Stop. Please.

 

lol

I kinda agree with him. :sorry:

 

Star Wars did have only one good movie. It was "Return of the Jedi."

But, it did have three great movies (Episodes IV,V & VII,) two so-so ones and one turkey.

 

My point exactly. The three "great ones" all told the identical story. lol

 

-J.

 

Walking Dead doesn't? Walk, kill a zombie, hide, repeat. Walk, kill a zombie, hide from the scary humans, wring hands, repeat.

Reminds me of playing Resident Evil back in the day on PS1. lol

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ComicConnoisseur

ComicConnoisseur

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Posted
Show mostly follows the comic but there are differences. In the comic Negan only killed Glenn and Abraham died earlier. Also Darrel isn't in the comic so that changes things.

What`s pretty interesting about Daryl is he probably is the most popular character on the Walking Dead TV show, and he didn`t come from the comics.

I wonder how the show would have fared without Daryl ratings-wise?

I don`t think Rick could carry the show long-term.

 

Kind of reminds me of Cyclops and Wolverine in Uncanny X-men with Rick as Cyclops and Daryl as Wolverine in that the Uncanny X-Men was a good comic,but it didn`t explode until Wolverine became the breakout character. Cyclops was kind of a ok character just like Rick is, while Daryl became the breakout character of Walking Dead like Wolverine did in X-men.

 

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Hulk44

Hulk44

Posted
Posted

 

GPA sales

Walking Dead 1 CGC 9.8

2014 $1,982

2015 $2,075

12 month Avg $2,725

90 day $3,155

Last sale $3,040

 

 

Those numbers are astounding. Putting in higher highs for two years now. I remember a bunch of folks complaining about missing this one and how it was too late to fork out $2K for a Near Mint/Mint slab. Turns out there ended up still being 50% ROR on the table. And its not like liquidity was thin in 2014. Plenty always up for auction on ebay and BIN/BOs as well.

I remember Walking Dead 1 CGC 9.8 when it was $1,000.

My argument to support for Walking Dead #1 was there was only 7,000 printed.

That`s mega-rare compared to all the other keys.

Think about that 7,000 printed with millions of fans.

 

I can`t think of any other key that has such a low print run with so many fans other than TMNT #1, and we know what the prices of TMNT #1 are now.

 

Well said, totally agree. I Remember when the 9.8 was selling for $2000 recently, now up a dime to $3000, but people still think the bubble is bursting :golfclap: , nice try.

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ComicConnoisseur

ComicConnoisseur

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Posted

Maybe the bubble is going to burst or at least correct itself? hm

Walking Dead’ Season 8 Premiere Draws Lowest Opening Ratings Since Season 3.

http://variety.com/2017/tv/news/walking-dead-season-8-premiere-ratings-1202596402/

 

“The Walking Dead” Season 8 premiere, also the show’s 100th episode, posted the series’ lowest premiere ratings since its third season.

According to Nielsen Live+Same Day data, the AMC series averaged a 5.0 rating in adults 18-49 and 11.4 million total viewers on Sunday night. The Season 3 premiere, which aired in 2012, averaged a 5.8 and 10.86 million viewers by comparison.  This also means that the Season 8 premiere is the third-lowest in series history, ahead of only Season 2 and Season 1.

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