Walking Dead is it really worth it? posted by mre1129

[CSJournals-migration]

What happened here?

 

So IM looking at all the hoopla on the Walking Dead #1 and how it jumped from 400 or 500 bucks to up wards of $3000 for a 9.8? and 10k for a 9.9? Relly?

 

1st IM thinking there is a lot of NON comic collectors buying this book that are Driving up the price. Which in a year or 2 when the series ends or interest drops, so will the price of the book. 2nd is it really worth that? Sure Id like to have one. But when there is almost 500 9.8's (with the SS) again, I have to ask. Is it worth it? People are sending in their copies as we speak to cash in on this book. Which will mean 1000 9.8's in no time at all. ok with the current wait times another year. But Again, dropping the price. Any one else have a thought on this?

 

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[HDFXST7]

I agree 100% with you. I don't think that book should be worth that; in about 1yr that book won't be worth squat. It's the non comic collectors who are driving the prices up......

[the420kid]

WD is a great read. Pick up the tpb if your interested in the series. I wouldn't bother with trying to score a #1. The train has already left on that book. I think the price may hold for a bit though.

[zosocane]

Don't bother. These are non-comic speculators that are engaging in "flipping". At some point (in next few years) there will be a final high point and it will drop dramatically, crash and burn. Irrational exuberance.

[miraclemet]

I dont know anyone who is a non-comic collector who bought the book.

I've never met a speculator who spent money on comics (vs Gold, Real Estate, Antiquest, etc) as part of a larger portfolio (met plenty of comics-only speculators, but they were in most cases also hobbyists)

 

Maybe it's cause I wasnt in comics in the 90s...

 

Was there a big post-TMNT crash to its value? That book seemed to hold up despite the TV show being cancelled eventually and the Movies flopping...

 

I know a TMNT #1 is rarer than a Walking Dead #1, but it's also worth 10x the value of a Walking Dead.

 

I'm not saying that TWD book is going to continue to double and tripple or even stay at its current lofty prices.... but I also dont think it will "be worth squat" and "crash and burn"

 

In 2050, were you to try and have a collection of the "key" books from various ages wouldnt Walking Dead #1 be one of them from the "what ever this era is called" ages?

 

[disclaimer: I DONT own a copy of Walking Dead #1, or have a horse in the speculator race, more just interested in seeing what market trends exist]

[BadGirlComicArt]

Yeahthere are a lot of "collectors" out there willing to pay top dollar for a MODERN book that Image probably made at least 50,000 copies of - I think there's like 480 9.8s in the CGC Census and I'm sure there are plenty of ungraded 9.8s out there waiting to be graded.

 

Don't get me wrong - I love the Walking Dead and I just sold my two SD Comic Con Signatures Series for a pretty penny (ebay item#261142478065)....but I would treat that issue (or any modern issue especially ones from the 2000s) like Spawn #1. Remeber how big Spawn #1 was? Now look at it - it's like toilet paper, and I use it all the time . They made a billion of them and watered down their value. DOn't get caught up in the hype - but if you have some ungraded mint copies then make your money while you can.

[BadGirlComicArt]

Comparing TMNT to The Walking Dead is like comparing Gold to Copper - Not as a franchise, but as a book. There are only 300 copies of TMNT #1 and I would guess at least 30,000 to 50,000 of the WD. And who knows how many of those 300 copies survived and didn't end up in the trashcan after reading. I agree the WD will retain some of it's value but ain't worth no 3K or even 1K. To me - it's a 500-700 dollar book like a Superman 75 Platinum 9.8 or a Spawn#1 Black & White 9.8.

[mschmidt]

Comparing TMNT to The Walking Dead is like comparing Gold to Copper - Not as a franchise, but as a book. There are only 300 copies of TMNT #1 and I would guess at least 30,000 to 50,000 of the WD. And who knows how many of those 300 copies survived and didn't end up in the trashcan after reading. I agree the WD will retain some of it's value but ain't worth no 3K or even 1K. To me - it's a 500-700 dollar book like a Superman 75 Platinum 9.8 or a Spawn#1 Black & White 9.8.

 

You're way off on your numbers - TMNT #1 had a print run of 3,000 and WD #1 had a print run of less than 7,000.

[B. Koski]

Personally, I would never put that kind of money in any independent book. The #1 will hold value based on low print run and demand. But once the show comes to an end, so will the series. Don't get me wrong, it's a great series that will go down as a classic, but it will come to an end. TMNT is a totally different animal. It was the first indy that became so mainstream, it led to cartoons,toys and movies. I get a kick out of these collector's that spend top dollar on these Image books. Been around the hobby for 20 years. Good books, but I seen this before..Does the Crow ring a bell!

[lpersky-migration]

wow... people need to do some research... first off, the print run on WD#1 (first prints, black & white mature label combined) was about 7000. this is common knowledge to most industry people especially those who collect WD. Secondly, the print run on TMNT#1 (first print) was roughly 2000 copies. common knowledge to TMNT collectors.

 

It's not surprising that a CGC 9.8 TMNT #1 would command 3-4x more than a WD#1 CGC 9.8 because it is that more scarce. It's got a print run that is 1/3rd the size, black cover, and it's paper quality sucks compared to comics printed today (1984 standards versus today's standards). However, I bet it is harder to find a WD#1 in CGC 9.9 than it is to find a TMNT #1 CGC 9.8. Both are difficult finds, but true MINT books (CGC 9.9s) are ALWAYS RARE while some 9.8s are simply hard to find.

 

As far as WD#1 in CGC 9.8 holding price, I believe it will still retain sgnificant value, but may eventually take a 10-20% drop after the current trend stabilizes. 1. It was a highly reguarded comic before it was even optioned as a TV show. 2. the supply for CGC 9.8s (even if there are eventually 1000 graded) will never meet the demand. 3. Collectors designate two versions of the WD#1 exist (a black mature label and a white mature label), thus they try and collect both (each had similar counts of roughly 3500 that exist in the total 7000 print run), which lessens the amount of total available WD#1s on the market that can be placed in new collections. 4. today's up and coming generation of collectors identify WD#1 as their "holy grail", thus stamping the basically 10year old book a key for them, which means it will always have significant value. Spawn #1 was never given "holy grail" status by a generation of collectors or the majority of its fans.

 

really, this continued debate about if WD#1 should have value or why it cost as much is really carried by a few bitter dealers who sold it at cover price when it was released, or balked at it when they could have bought it at $50, $100, $250, $400, or $500 at shows not too long ago. these are the same people who think New Mutants 98s are garbarge (yes I spelled that correctly) and missed that boat as well, all because they hold Silver and Golden Age books on a petestal becasue that is what they grew up with. because they missed the boat (twice) and can't keep up with current trends in the market, they call everyone else who doesn't buy a Silver or Golden Age book a speculator.

[latony007-migration]

i agree that it will drop dramatically in the next couple years. 500 9.8's and counting is a lot of copies available.

[brendanb438]

Comparing TMNT to The Walking Dead is like comparing Gold to Copper - Not as a franchise, but as a book. There are only 300 copies of TMNT #1 and I would guess at least 30,000 to 50,000 of the WD. And who knows how many of those 300 copies survived and didn't end up in the trashcan after reading. I agree the WD will retain some of it's value but ain't worth no 3K or even 1K. To me - it's a 500-700 dollar book like a Superman 75 Platinum 9.8 or a Spawn#1 Black & White 9.8.

 

You're way off on your numbers - TMNT #1 had a print run of 3,000 and WD #1 had a print run of less than 7,000.

 

Indeed, for all of you throwing around that this won't be worth jack in 1 year please research just a little what you are actually talking about.

 

For the past 3 years we have been discussing this book and each month someone says this won't go any higher, people are paying way too much for this book and then next month it has gone up again.

 

Yes it will eventually peak but the tv show is likely to go 6+ seasons now so we are still aways away from this book dropping bigtime.

[B. Koski]

Keep in mind that most of these people that are spending top dollar on WD are "not" traditional comic book collector's. Gold and Silver will always trump modern. I collect mostly bronze age, thats my era. Theres nothing wrong with modern, but remember, superheroes never die, indys do!

[lpersky-migration]

Keep in mind that most of these people that are spending top dollar on WD are "not" traditional comic book collector's. Gold and Silver will always trump modern. I collect mostly bronze age, thats my era. Theres nothing wrong with modern, but remember, superheroes never die, indys do!

 

 

So what is a traditional comic book collector? Everybody has an event or moment that was an introductory point to collecting, other than that, what makes collectors of WD any different? So what if a TV show introduces them to collecting, they are now collecting the comic and possibly other comics as well.

 

And why does it have to be that Gold and Silver will always trump Bronze or Modern? Explain, do you mean monetarily or quality of story. Monetarily, sure when comparing keys to keys (that's econ 101 read: supply & demand), quality of story, not always...

[miraclemet]

Comparing TMNT to The Walking Dead is like comparing Gold to Copper - Not as a franchise, but as a book. There are only 300 copies of TMNT #1 and I would guess at least 30,000 to 50,000 of the WD. And who knows how many of those 300 copies survived and didn't end up in the trashcan after reading. I agree the WD will retain some of it's value but ain't worth no 3K or even 1K. To me - it's a 500-700 dollar book like a Superman 75 Platinum 9.8 or a Spawn#1 Black & White 9.8.

 

I think someone's already correcting this. but just in the CGC census alone there are over 400 copies, and who knows how many raw copies are out there in collections since there was no CGC during TMNT publication. And yep, there were (supposedly) 10k walking dead books.

 

So they arent as far apart as you might think...

 

Reports online show there was a 3000 print run. So it is ~3x as rare than the Walking Dead #1 with its 10k print run. Now that was before distribution, CGC etc, so there are obviously fewer copies still in the market but look at the #s

 

TMNT: 407 on census of 3000 print run (or 13.6% of the run)

Walking Dead: 1222 on census of 10k print run (or 12.2% of the run)

 

Now yes the walking dead books are higher grade than the TMNT so the high grade TMNT's should be worth more than their counterpart, but overall the two arent that different from each other...

[miraclemet]

Personally, I would never put that kind of money in any independent book. The #1 will hold value based on low print run and demand. But once the show comes to an end, so will the series. Don't get me wrong, it's a great series that will go down as a classic, but it will come to an end. TMNT is a totally different animal. It was the first indy that became so mainstream, it led to cartoons,toys and movies. I get a kick out of these collector's that spend top dollar on these Image books. Been around the hobby for 20 years. Good books, but I seen this before..Does the Crow ring a bell!

 

I think you do have a good point in there which is the big two comic book publishers are keen on maintaining the ongoing licensing rights and public presence of their assets (Spidey, Supes, Bats, etc)... Which help to keep the values of their comic books aloft (in part). Compare it to say Shazam comics from the SA. Very small market, not as valued comapred to it's contemporaries, but would that be the case if there was a Shazam cartoon, movie, t-shirt, lunchbox franchise all over the world? No, it'd have a far more comparable value.

 

So extend that to Walking Dead. The ongoing licensing options are somewhat limited. They've branched out into the novel world which helps, and ther TV show obviously gave the comic a big boost, but besides a movie what else is there to keep the license going and in the public eye? Even if the show goes 10 years when it ends it ends. Will Kirkman (the sole writer) start branching the book out and have others writing comics in the Walking-Verse? If not the franchise only lives as long as someone (Kirkman) is writing the book. Once it stops, we all move on to something else and Walking Dead takes its place in lore, but not the loft it maintains now.

[chromium]

As a Silver Age and OA collector I had almost the same sentiment about the WD books as a lot of the posters here...Love to read the series, enjoy the show...but surely the prices for the comics were insane and artificially inflated....well I've changed my mind.

 

 

I have a blog and a comics website on youtube and over the course of the last year or so I've gotten more questions about the WD series than I've had on any other comic series bar Spider-man. And these are mostly young collectors getting interested in the hobby. Oh and I hardly ever feature modern books in my vids, 99% is Silver and Bronze...but I'm beginning to believe that for a lot of the new breed of comic fans/collectors Walking Dead #1 is their milestone, their key to top all keys.

 

I stumbled on a set of #1 - #25 from a local collector, agreed they were pretty nice and bought them. I put scans of #1 & #2 up in the grading section, just to see if they were worth it sending them to CGC and got PMs from three different people asking me to sell them the book there and now...one even made an offer over $1000 based on a scan of a modern comic book that I wasn't even selling.

 

Sure a lot of people are buying to flip, but a lot of collectors just want to own the book as well.

[miraclemet]

Lots of collectors like to have that iconic book from the era they started collecting.

For the new collector who started in the last 10 years? This would be the book...

So there will always be some market, maybe not enough to support the # in the market at the current price, but I would certainly imagine more than enough to keep the comic above the $50 Spawn #1 level.

[ItsJustRyan]

This is fun (say something negative about TWD and it blows up).

 

Disclaimer: I don't own a TWD #1 or plan to ever own one, but am a huge fan of the series.

I think the problem here is that we are trying to rationalize (wrap out minds around) the jump in the price of TWD #1. We can't rationalize it. Fans (crazy die-hard fans) will sell their firstborn to score a collectors item (I know because I'm a Trekkie and Star Wars buff as well and in Trek-verse, people pay INSANE amount for Trek memorabilia).

 

You can't rationalize what fans will do.

 

Do I think the price is inflated on TWD #1.... yes.

Do I care.... not really (other than it's cool our hobby it legitimized by things like this happening).

 

Proceed with your discussions.

 

Oh yeah, my crystal ball prediction.... as long as the show remains a hit (which it is HUGE), TWD #1 will continue to maintain or climb in value (perceived or real).

[kaholo1256]

Wow Walking Dead it is.

 

I think one of the big issues that a few have pointed out is that just because some don't have a room filled with box's doesn't necessitate that they aren't true collectors. Many who buy these WD's may not have started out as collector's but honestly how many of us have had that one issue that brought us into the fold of collector status. I brought my origin story on here and would love to see a journal from someone who was brought in by this specific issue. How a comic that is black and white introduced them to reading and enjoying or even simply into the appreciation of the art on the cover. The idea that something so plain came into being around a time that we were already flooded with Zombie movies and still survived, shows a lot for what the writer was able to offer and listening to a journal pontificate that would continue to inspire.

 

While I do believe the price will continue to hold steady for at least the next 5 years or so maybe after 10 we may see a price deviation but only because the market has cooled not because of a flood towards CGC 9.8's. If our elders would have known the significance of Action Comics #1 or Amazing Fantasy #15 or whatever and the price those are fetching now I'm sure we would have a flood of those around but we don't because in their age comics weren't something to be kept and slabbed but to be read and shared.

 

Our market (and I say this for non-collectors as well) is derived around the ideology that one day we can flip a comic for a profit down the road. Few claim to be collectors simply because they enjoy it and want to pass down something to their children and grandchildren as either art or stories from our day.

 

So back to the Walking Dead, reason I believe the number one will continue to hold for at least five years is due to:

 

1)They just introduced TV viewers to two of the biggest characters in the comic after 2 years of being on TV with Michone and the Governor. Don’t believe me; look at the prices their origins are going for. This means there should be at least 4 years until they get to where they are now in the comic book.

 

2)Yes the print run was relatively low so I will give it that.

 

3)Look at the prices and feedback following issue 100. More people were introduced at this specific time to this comic book and numbers are continuing to stay steady because of the, what is going to happen factor, that Kirkman delivers. This is an author that has introduced us to enjoying colorless comics and I don’t believe he is going to run out of oh my god factor for awhile.

 

4)This is becoming more mainstream and more accepted to read in the open instead of in secrecy. I’m in Afghanistan and we hand around the Trade Paper Backs like crazy. This isn’t done through your typical clerk positions sitting in an office with a desk but from your alpha male persona’s who now have become interested in comics because of this very issue after having seen the tv show. We even have a pool going around on how and when they plan on killing off the son. (I got it, its sadistic but if you read the comic you should understand why) There are even events going on in areas for the Escape the Dead obstacle courses which were evolved from this past San Diego Comic Con obstacle course. I have heard more of these guys wanting to jump on the collecting route because of the enjoyment of these TPB’s and open forum’s of collective enjoyment that truly makes it cool to know not only the tv show but how it deviates from the comic.

 

Point is that this isn’t going anywhere anytime soon and prices aren’t going to drop as fast as some here tend to speculate. This isn’t really just a short time fad thing. This is this generation’s version of a Amazing Fantasy #15, Incredible Hulk #181 or whatever. This generation needed a jumping on point like many of us and if the high prices are indicative of this then that’s it. For me I will never try for a number 1 in this issue. Don’t get me wrong I have found myself drawn into the stories and have a bunch of these issues from 15 to present but at the high prices currently demanded for them, I’ll look more for the key issues of the characters that drew me into doing this. I like to collect what I collect and many of us will do the same. A collector is simply someone that has picked up an issue and held onto it for any specific reason and to dog those out for simply flipping is going against what many in here do or plan to do in the future however far that is from now. Me, I have no ideas of grandeur or making some huge profit. I simply do this as some do the model planes and model boats in bottles. It relaxes me, reminds me of my childhood, and simply entertains.

 

Big ending point, Prices are not going to drop but simply go up as this continues to be more mainstreamed. Whether they are putting them on a wall for art or waiting for that point when the market truly hits its peak collectors whether new or old will continue to pick up this issue for the high prices it commands. The supply of original’s at any grade are not going to be able to meet the current demand and that's why I see the prices staying steady or continuing to rise.

 

K