Hey when is Silver Age going to Crash?

[Aman619]

we need to change the name of this thread to "just how many early SA keys are out there?" cause Im tired of clicking on the same old, same old crash thing. We've all been there done that....havent we?

[tth2]

Somehow I don't think using the largest dealer of vintage comic books in the world to illustrate the point that there are plenty of dealers out there with HG unslabbed collections makes a very convincing argument!! I mean, how many largest dealers of vintage comic books in the world are there?

 

Well, I don't necessarily buy into the belief that there are umpteen HG SA collections still out there waiting to be discovered, whether owned by dealers or OOs. Just pointing out that I'm not naive enough to believe that there are none, and using Fishler as an example of a dealer-owned collection that is undoubtedly very nice but which has not surfaced yet.

[Aman619]

we all agree that there are plenty of collections unslabbed out there in collectors and dealers hands.

The real issue (for my part anyway) is when all is said and done, how many will nice enough to flood the 9.4 census for the early keys.

 

Many collectors locked in long ago with a "killer" copy and stopped upgrading or looking for that book anymore. And these books will no doubt be a disappointment in their shiny 8.0 to 9.0 slabs once all the minute corner dings and slight spine cracks, plus the "invisible to all but the CGC eye" stains and cover creases etc..... not to mention those "perfect except for this one bad spot" books that CGC now only sees the bad spot on!!

[shrunkenhead]

Awww....poor wittle AMF#15 in CGC 8.0.....

 

Seriously though, why the fixation on 9.4? High grade is high grade, yes? Granted, I know and understand that a 9.4 will (and should) fetch more than an 8.0, but does that mean we kick the AMF#15 in 8.0 to the curb? Can't see doing that, really, or poo-pooing it as a mere 8.0

 

The fixation with "9.4 or better" makes me nervous for the comic hobby, as it could mean that the crash is sooner than we think!

 

Anyhow, I'm sure this is nothing that hasn't been said a bazillion times already

[joe_collector]

The fixation with "9.4 or better" makes me nervous for the comic hobby, as it could mean that the crash is sooner than we think!

 

You got it Pontiac.

[sfilosa]

Seriously though, why the fixation on 9.4? High grade is high grade, yes? Granted, I know and understand that a 9.4 will (and should) fetch more than an 8.0, but does that mean we kick the AMF#15 in 8.0 to the curb? Can't see doing that, really, or poo-pooing it as a mere 8.0

 

Good point (one that I bring up all the time).

 

High-Grade is not only 9.4 (or above). It really depends on the scarcity of a book in high-grade.

 

Assume there are only 10 CGC 9.4 (or higher) of AF#15 in then years:

 

What happens in ten years if:

 

1) There are only 20 CGC 9.0-9.2's

 

or

 

2) There are 100 CGC9.0-9.2's

 

Regardless of the 9.4 amount staying the same, I have to believe the market value of a CGC 9.4 will be lowerer in scenario #2 than #1.

[Aman619]

Awww....poor wittle AMF#15 in CGC 8.0.....

 

Seriously though, why the fixation on 9.4? High grade is high grade, yes? Granted, I know and understand that a 9.4 will (and should) fetch more than an 8.0, but does that mean we kick the AMF#15 in 8.0 to the curb? Can't see doing that, really, or poo-pooing it as a mere 8.0

 

The fixation with "9.4 or better" makes me nervous for the comic hobby, as it could mean that the crash is sooner than we think!

 

Anyhow, I'm sure this is nothing that hasn't been said a bazillion times already

 

well, its MY fixation...

 

plus, this discussion started out as just how many more ungraded SA books are out there. Most of us agree that there are plenty more of EVERY comic sitting raw yet to be graded. So we agree that SA books are available in numbers, but what about HG? Thats my interest. SO Im trying to guage how man exist in 9.4 (*true" HG) If you want to focus on 9.2 or 8.0. thats fine too. But its another discussion since there are already are, and always will be, many more 8.0s than 9.4s.

 

Collecting has always been about condition (so long as more than one exist) and its affect on the demand for the item. SO Id prefer to talk about the high end and the possible supply down the road, than the high middle grades. Also we are not just talking about AF15, for which any copy over 6.0 will get you a decent penny in a sale. But also lesser early Marvels, too where an 8.0 gets you hundreds and isnt as sexy as a 8.0 AF15, I wouldnt kick an 8.0 out of bed either...

 

anyway....

[skybolt]

Who is the GA group anyway (not counting the major dealers and collectors)? I mean the golden age has been over for almost 50 years now, and I really don't see a lot of 70 and 80 year olds holding on to their comic book collections. So they've either given it to their kids (who are our age), or sold it in years past. The average age for collecting GA vs. SA books is probably the same. The only reason why there are fewer GA books graded is not because their owners are holding on to them for dear life, but because they are trully scarce. For instance, if a GA book is valued at or above $1000 in NM condition (in the overstreet guide), then I would think that 40 to 50% of the owners have already sent it in for grading. Especially if we're talking about super-hero comic books.

[Aman619]

Who is the GA group anyway (not counting the major dealers and collectors)? I mean the golden age has been over for almost 50 years now, and I really don't see a lot of 70 and 80 year olds holding on to their comic book collections. So they've either given it to their kids (who are our age), or sold it in years past. The average age for collecting GA vs. SA books is probably the same. The only reason why there are fewer GA books graded is not because their owners are holding on to them for dear life, but because they are trully scarce. For instance, if a GA book is valued at or above $1000 in NM condition (in the overstreet guide), then I would think that 40 to 50% of the owners have already sent it in for grading. Especially if we're talking about super-hero comic books.

 

are we talking GA now?

 

I would think that the only GA books graded so far were in order to be sold... not by collectors wanting to see what grade they are..

[jayvegas420]

very true.

[sfilosa]

Aman619 -

 

You keep using the term high-grade and intermixing it with 9.4. I think high-grade changes with the age / scaricity of the comic book.

 

GA - High-grade might be 8.0

Early Silver-Age might be 9.0

Mid/Late Silver-Age and Bronze might be 9.4

Modern might be 9.6 or 9.8.

 

Remember 9.4 is really just a number and in theory represents books that look ALMOST NEW (i.e. Near Mint). But is a book with one more tiny spine stress (i.e. a 9.2) completely irrelevant (since it's not a 9.4). Not to me.

 

Skybolt -

 

Many of the most well known collectors of Golden-Age HAVE NOT submitted their collections to CGC. That's just a FACT.

[Aman619]

Im not so much trying to equate HG with 9.4 as I just vary what I type. To me HG does start at 9.4 depending on the age as you say. For SA Marvel keys 9.4 is the upper crust except for Hulk#1 for instance. Most of the others have only a sprinkling of 9.6 and 9.8s ...

Are there any Marvels where 9.0 is top census or will be in a few years?? TTA 35 for one, any more?

 

Ill always type 9.4 from now on to be clearer....

[jimm94]

Yes, 9.4 and HG are different things in my mind. Two completely different conversations. IMO, the measuring stick does change slightly from gold to silver to bronze, etc..., but I consider HG for late silver to still be 8.5 (at the very least 9.0) and up.

 

It will be interesting to see as the years go by how many of the "So and so has..." or "I heard about a guy..." raw collections are truly 9.4 NM. Remember, the definition of Near Mint has gotten a lot tighter in the last 5+ years. What people use to call Near Mint could be anywhere from about 8.0 or better today. We do know that some uber-silver age collectors really do have 9.4 or higher books, but I'll bet some of these other hypothetical collections are not quite what their owners, or those who may have seen them years ago, thought them to be.

 

I spit on 9.2's ,

 

-Jim

[joe_collector]

Who is the GA group anyway (not counting the major dealers and collectors)? I mean the golden age has been over for almost 50 years now, and I really don't see a lot of 70 and 80 year olds holding on to their comic book collections.

 

Your years are way, way off, and I assume you know this.

 

Back in the 1970's and 80's, the 20-something "investor-collectors were buying Gold mostly, as Silver Age (outside of a very few keys) was not worth much. When Chuck found the Church collection, it was all the rage, and that was in 1977, and it wasn't until 1988-90 that Silver Age really exploded and $5 books started selling for hundreds and even thousands.

 

I'd peg most longtime GA collectors as being in their 50's, and another block just hitting their sixties. These represent the twenty and thirty-somethings who were buying/investing in GA during the late-70's to mid-80's. So give it another decade or two for the majority of longtime GA collectors to hit their retirement age, and then we'll see what the supply looks like.

[joe_collector]

Remember, the definition of Near Mint has gotten a lot tighter in the last 5+ years. What people use to call Near Mint could be anywhere from about 8.0 or better today.

 

If you're talking about reputable sources, then that's not realy true. As we've noted a few times, books graded in the Sotheby's auctions, have many times come back a higher grade from CGC.

 

Sure, there is, was and will always be overgraders, but as for "tighter standards", I'm not sure you could say that across the board. CGC doesn't necessarily mean "tighter" especially in the area of QP and things like centering, cut, and production creases.

 

What you have to watch out for are the older books, bought NM in the 70's and 80's that may have a significant issue that the grading standards of the time didn't address, but CGC comes down hard on.

[skybolt]

I truly believe that in 10 years time people will stop noticing the difference between 9.8 and 9.4 books. For instance, several months ago I sent about 60 bronze age books to be CGC graded. I inspected most of them several times to make sure I noticed all of the defects. I created a list with what I thought the grades would be. I had listed a copy of X-Men #101 at 9.0 since it had a couple of stress lines, one slightly rounded corner and a small scratch on the front cover. I had also listed a copy of Daredevil #168 at 9.8 since it was absolutely flawless - white pages, zero spine stress, square corners, etc. To my surprise, both books came back CGC graded at 9.4, which means I can't tell the difference between a 9.8 and 9.0 book. I sold the X-Men book for $455, but noticed that a 9.8 graded X-Men #101 book sold on Ebay for $4,500 last week. It just doesn't make sense to me that a book would sell for 10 times as much since it has 1 or 2 less flaws (if even that). It's almost like saying that if a Honda Accord is brand-spankin new, then it should sell for $200,000 instead of $20,000. Does anyone on this board pay 10-20 times guide for 9.8 CGC graded books priced at $50 or more in NM condition?

[Aman619]

Yes, 9.4 and HG are different things in my mind. Two completely different conversations. IMO, the measuring stick does change slightly from gold to silver to bronze, etc..., but I consider HG for late silver to still be 8.5 (at the very least 9.0) and up.

 

It will be interesting to see as the years go by how many of the "So and so has..." or "I heard about a guy..." raw collections are truly 9.4 NM. Remember, the definition of Near Mint has gotten a lot tighter in the last 5+ years. What people use to call Near Mint could be anywhere from about 8.0 or better today. We do know that some uber-silver age collectors really do have 9.4 or higher books, but I'll bet some of these other hypothetical collections are not quite what their owners, or those who may have seen them years ago, thought them to be.

 

I spit on 9.2's ,

 

-Jim

 

thats what I'm saying (except for the spitting part!) There will a fair amount of disappoitment when those NMs are graded down to 8.0s. Noce 8.0s but not 9.4s. Im sure many if not most stopped upgrading as prices rose to unbelievable levels, like we are seeing today.

[jimm94]

Who is the GA group anyway (not counting the major dealers and collectors)? I mean the golden age has been over for almost 50 years now, and I really don't see a lot of 70 and 80 year olds holding on to their comic book collections.

 

Your years are way, way off, and I assume you know this.

 

Back in the 1970's and 80's, the 20-something "investor-collectors were buying Gold mostly, as Silver Age (outside of a very few keys) was not worth much. When Chuck found the Church collection, it was all the rage, and that was in 1977, and it wasn't until 1988-90 that Silver Age really exploded and $5 books started selling for hundreds and even thousands.

 

I'd peg most longtime GA collectors as being in their 50's, and another block just hitting their sixties. These represent the twenty and thirty-somethings who were buying/investing in GA during the late-70's to mid-80's. So give it another decade or two for the majority of longtime GA collectors to hit their retirement age, and then we'll see what the supply looks like.

 

Exactly, JC. We're talking about the quality of as-yet-unslabbed by the collector books, as opposed to the possible existence of high-grade OO collections.

 

Within the next decade, I think we'll be at a point where the possibility of unearthing OO golden age collections will be severely diminished. Someone who bought books in the early 40's as a kid would already be more than 65 years old.

[joe_collector]

[Within the next decade, I think we'll be at a point where the possibility of unearthing OO golden age collections will be severely diminished. Someone who bought books in the early 40's as a kid would already be more than 65 years old.

 

I agree, but I think there are still many OO Silver Age collections out there, just ready to be unearthed, and let's not even go near Bronze.

[lou_fine]

does steve have multiples of the early Marvels? Or just one or two at most?

 

No doubt Steve has high grade copies of all the early Marvels. I am quite confident there are still unslabbed high grade early Marvels out there. After all, was it not the SA Marvels that really started the whole comic collecting craze.

 

With respect to Steve's stash, I was really thinking more of the HG SA DC's which just does not seem to show up in the marketplace as readily as HG Marvels.

 

BTW, We should not forget the other big SA stash which might be sitting in Steve Geppi's vault at Diamond. I know his GA collection is pretty extensive since I have seen it. Not that sure about his SA collection, however.