Hey when is Silver Age going to Crash?

[blowout]

I would be freakin' thrilled if I could pick up some of the books I wanted at 1.5x guide. And they don't even need to be pedigree copies.

 

How times have changed.

[hobbes]

I just get irritated letting books I want pass me by because they are priced up through the stratosphere.

[joe_collector]

Actually the Church collection had little to no rage to it at all. The books sold incredibly slow. Years later in the early 80's you could pick up the still near complete run of Batman, along with many of the best GA titles. Most collectors and dealers were appalled at paying 1.5 times MINT guide for any book, even if it was Pristine Mint!

 

Sure, Chuck blew off the barn doors with his pricing, but in 1977, are you saying that SA was where the 20 and 30-something's put their money? I don't think you are, but that was the GIST of my statement, Church sales figures or not, that 99.9% of SA was far too low-cost in 1977-85 to really get much attention from the collector'investors.

 

GA was where it was at for "comic investment" during the growth years of 1975-85, thus giving us another decade at least before the bulk of longtime GA collector/investors retire and start selling off their stash. .

[hobbes]

I've recently been able to snag some 9.2's for quite a bit less than half the 9.4 price, and I suspect this is due to the "HG starts at 9.4" mentality. To me, it's nuts, and I hope it continues. Try to picture being in a room with EVERY existing copy of a silver marvel, and then try and visualize how much of that space would be taken up by the copies that are in true 9.0 or higher. It's a difficult thing to imagine, and obviously cannot be done with any accuracy, but it should bring home the point that "high grade" and "NM" should not be confused. Otherwise, what's a 9.2? Midgrade?

 

I am totally in agreement with COI on this one. I have a Fury 6 9.2 which is not that uncommon according to the recent census update. It is a beautiful, well centered book that I bought slabbed for slightly above guide. Could not be happier with it.

[Lantern]

I bought slabbed for slightly above guide.

 

Which guide? The tattered old 2002 edition.

[skybolt]

O.K. let's put it this way. Which book would you prefer if you weren't looking at the label grade? An accurately graded 9.4 CGC book that has only 3 visible flaws to the naked eye (spine stress, slightly rounded corner, small scratch on front cover), or an accurately graded 9.2 CGC book that has absolutely zero visible flaws (square corners, sharp, etc.), but 5 or 6 minor spine stresses that can only be noticed if you own the same type of scanner equipment as CGC? O.K., maybe the 9.4 or 9.6 is still a better book, but it certainly isn't worth 10 or 20 times more than the 9.2 book. A lot of us on this board realize this, but once this becomes evident to every one else, then the speculators will unload their once overpriced 9.6 and 9.8 books onto the market, therefore, driving the price down for SA books. Beauty is still in the eye of the beholder. To me a perfectly nice 9.0 book should not receive a 6.0 score just because there is a faint stain on the back cover. I would much rather have that book than another 6.0 graded book with a couple of tears, spine stresses, chipped corners, etc.

[hobbes]

I bought slabbed for slightly above guide.

 

Which guide? The tattered old 2002 edition.

 

Yep!

[hobbes]

O.K. let's put it this way. Which book would you prefer if you weren't looking at the label grade? An accurately graded 9.4 CGC book that has only 3 visible flaws to the naked eye (spine stress, slightly rounded corner, small scratch on front cover), or an accurately graded 9.2 CGC book that has absolutely zero visible flaws (square corners, sharp, etc.), but 5 or 6 minor spine stresses that can only be noticed if you own the same type of scanner equipment as CGC? O.K., maybe the 9.4 or 9.6 is still a better book, but it certainly isn't worth 10 or 20 times more than the 9.2 book. A lot of us on this board realize this, but once this becomes evident to every one else, then the speculators will unload their once overpriced 9.6 and 9.8 books onto the market, therefore, driving the price down for SA books. Beauty is still in the eye of the beholder. To me a perfectly nice 9.0 book should not receive a 6.0 score just because there is a faint stain on the back cover. I would much rather have that book than another 6.0 graded book with a couple of tears, spine stresses, chipped corners, etc.

 

I'm not sure what your point is. If I am reading it correctly then you have simply restated what I have already agreed with. In the end, what I buy is not dictated by the label. To me, NM is NM. Does not matter if the label is 9.2, 9.4 or whatever. I always base my decision on money. What is the nicest slabbed or raw copy I can buy that fits my budget.

[deathlok]

potential buyers probably knew the reserve would be over $1K.

 

Exactly. I was watching all of PCE's Metamorpho auctions, most of which did not meet reserve, with high bids in the hundreds. I knew Robert had a fairly high reserve in place so I didn't bother to bid.

[*paull*]

The differences between a 9.2 and 9.4 and 9.6 are so minute that it's simply not worth worrying about. There is no way in hell I would pay multiples for a 9.6 over a 9.2 or 9.0. I have many Silver Age Marvels that would probably grade at 9.0 and have no desire to upgrade... it's simply a waste of money and effort. I'd rather have 10 books at 9.0 than 2 books at 9.6. Thankfully, I've stopped collecting Silver Age Marvels in favor of pre-code horror where condition isn't as big a factor. SA Marvels are simply too common. Go to any show and you'll find multiples of practically every Silver Age Marvel created in high grade. Boring! You're telling me that the challenge is in finding a 9.6 copy of a particular book? But you're willing to pay multiples of the price of a 9.2 copy? I say this to you: Thanks for keeping the collector's market afloat. Your foolish money is making a living for the dealers who provide me with the books I want at good prices.

[shrunkenhead]

tth2,

 

Sheesh, didn't realize I was "denigrating" anybody. Just offering an opinion, like everybody else around here. All I'm saying is that in exclusively searching out CGC 9.4's over 9.2's and paying huge amounts of money for the difference, you're giving yourself over to what is wholly a subjective analysis of a book. That's all it is. If that wasn't the case, people would never get the idea to send a book in for resubmission. So, in feeding the market for these somewhat arbitrary 9.4's, anything below that grade somehow becomes "undesirable," (i.e. 90% of most sellers' inventory) and thus the crash comes knocking at your door.

 

But like you say, it's your choice, and that's cool, didn't mean to ruffle so many feathers.

[skybolt]

Sorry Hobbes,

 

I was just stating my opinion, which is in agreement with yours.

 

I have only been purchasing SA and GA books for the past 2 years (I was mostly a BA and MA collector). I guess what I've noticed with CGC graded books is that if you're a short term investor, then 9.6 and higher books are the way to go - meaning that these books will be resold within a years time, and a new batch is bought. For instance, if you buy a 9.6 graded Iron Man #8 for $200, and then wait a couple of years for the movie to come out, and resell it for $400, then that's smart thinking. Also, if you are a true collector and want the best graded books, then God bless you, there is nothing wrong with that either. However, if you are purely into long term investment and believe that if you pay 20 times guide now, then in 20 years it will be worth 50 times guide, then you will lose that bet. Who knows what can happen to a 9.8 CGC graded book in 20 years. There is no guarantee that the book will stay in that shape. What if 7 years from now, people start complaining that CGC holders are not keeping their comics in pristine condition. That doubt will drive the price down for these books significantly. CGC maybe forced to regrade the book after so many years instead of just re-slabbing it with the same grade. I certainly wouldn't take that chance. My rule for SA books is to pay no more than 1.5 X the guide value for 9.2 books, no more than 2 X for 9.4 books, and no more than 3 X for 9.6 (I can't afford 9.8 and higher SA books). Again, this is only my opinion, since I realize that there are other people on this board with much greater comic book collecting experience than myself.

[hobbes]

I was just stating my opinion

[tth2]

The differences between a 9.2 and 9.4 and 9.6 are so minute that it's simply not worth worrying about. There is no way in hell I would pay multiples for a 9.6 over a 9.2 or 9.0. I have many Silver Age Marvels that would probably grade at 9.0 and have no desire to upgrade... it's simply a waste of money and effort. I'd rather have 10 books at 9.0 than 2 books at 9.6. Thankfully, I've stopped collecting Silver Age Marvels in favor of pre-code horror where condition isn't as big a factor. SA Marvels are simply too common. Go to any show and you'll find multiples of practically every Silver Age Marvel created in high grade. Boring! You're telling me that the challenge is in finding a 9.6 copy of a particular book? But you're willing to pay multiples of the price of a 9.2 copy? I say this to you: Thanks for keeping the collector's market afloat. Your foolish money is making a living for the dealers who provide me with the books I want at good prices.

 

Again, it`s great that you`re into collecting what you`re into collecting, but why do you feel the need to denigrate those who are into high grade books by using terms like "waste of money and effort" and "foolish money"? There`s been criticism on these boards from time to time of BSDs being snobs and acting condescending to other collectors. Well, your words are nothing but reverse snobbery.

 

Just because YOU don`t care about the "minute" differences between a 9.2 and 9.4 and 9.6 doesn`t mean that others shouldn`t care about it. And by the way, any experienced high grade collector CAN definitely tell the difference between a 9.2, a 9.4 and a 9.6 (although CGC might not agree with them 100% of the time). Do you think it`s coincidence or luck that guys like Brulato and Schmell, who purchased a lot of their books pre-CGC, turned out to have lots of 9.4s, 9.6s and 9.8s once they got their books slabbed?

 

As for your comment about "practically every" SA Marvel being available in high grade at any show... .

[sfilosa]

Do you think it`s coincidence or luck that guys like Brulato and Schmell, who purchased a lot of their books pre-CGC, turned out to have lots of 9.4s, 9.6s and 9.8s once they got their books slabbed?

 

It's just my opinion, but I'm not sure that Doug or Tom or even a Jason Ewert are exceptionally graders above lots of other collectors.

 

What these people have in common is the DETERMINATION, to search out the best books and (for lack of a better word), BALLS to pay whatever it took to get the books (I'm particularly talking Pre-CGC days).

 

And their Determination and Balls has paid off handsomely for them.

 

I can assure you that if Doug, Jason and myself were all present with the same group of super-high grade Silver-Age Marvel for sale, our grades on the books would be very comparable. I can also assure you, I WOULDN'T be the one who walks out with the books.

[*paull*]

It's not denigration as much as it is pity. It's too bad that the hobby for you and many others has been reduced to finding a book with one less spine crease or rounded corner.

[joe_collector]

Do you think it`s coincidence or luck that guys like Brulato and Schmell, who purchased a lot of their books pre-CGC, turned out to have lots of 9.4s, 9.6s and 9.8s once they got their books slabbed?

 

I think a HUGE part of it is having the contacts to go after the big PEDIGREES and uber-high grade OO collections. I mean, it doesn't take a Rocket Scientist to buy a ton of Curators and Pacific Coast books and then get high grades, but it does take the OPPORTUNITY.

 

Most times it's the dealers doing the leg-work, not the BSD collectors. Or as Steve B has posted on here many times, he and many other big collectors never even got a shot at the top material, as the dealers would hit up their "BSD Contact List" when any new Pedigree or OO collections came up.

[sfilosa]

I mean, it doesn't take a Rocket Scientist to buy a ton of Curators and Pacific Coast books and then get high grades, but it does take the OPPORTUNITY.

 

But you would have to admit that they put themselves in a position for OPPORTUNITY to work.

 

And when Opportunity strikes, many of us would just watch it pass us by.

 

As a famous quote says "luck is a residual of design".

 

You can intermix LUCK with OPPORTUNITY.

[joe_collector]

I mean, it doesn't take a Rocket Scientist to buy a ton of Curators and Pacific Coast books and then get high grades, but it does take the OPPORTUNITY.

 

But you would have to admit that they put themselves in a position for OPPORTUNITY to work.

 

Oh of course, and back in those days, waving some serious cash at dealers brought with it a form of loyalty. It was the same way with Chuck and the Church books, he had a list that he went down, selling a set dollar amount each year.

 

Today that would never happen, and a recent pedigree like Pacific Coast would be immediately slabbed by the dealer and sold online.

[reddog4063]

I was into baseball cards years ago, and then suddenly professional grading and big money came onto the scene, and people were speculating all over the place whether there were this many psa88's and psa90's out there and paying multiples for minor degrees of separations between grades, but then eventually it hit a ceiling and they couldn't squeeze anymore out of it (1952 topps mickey mantle was worth more than my house for awhile). When they realized they couldn't push any higher they moved onto the next big thing like pogs or beanie babies or whatever. The hobby went away from being fun and flipping/trading cards with your friends to being run something like a corporation. I think that is happening with comics.

 

all the fun is going to the shops and shows and spending hours holding up a few books and making a guess at whats what grade, now people just walk up "i'll take all the 9.4's". blah..whats the point.

 

how much of everyone's collection is unslabbed? it seems like you guys have piles and piles of cgc-graded books...I personally only have 4 cgc'd books (out of 1,100 books total, or about 0.5%), and for all four i have reading copies in my collection. Don't make this hobby where you stare at your books behind glass walls.