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Hey when is Silver Age going to Crash?

Started by sfilosa,

441 posts in this topic

skybolt

skybolt

Posted
Posted

There has to be a balance between investing and collecting. We can't just say that the comics you own today will be worthless 20 years from now, since most people would throw them away or treat them like beaten down pieces of rag. Then we'll run into the same problem as 50 years ago where high grade books will not be available for future generations. However, at the same time I do believe that the 9.6 and 9.8 CGC craze for modern books is getting out of hand. Speculators paying 50 times the near mint value for a 9.8 book are going to really hurt the market in years to come. That's why the Overstreet Price Guide does not even want to deal with 9.4 and above graded books since they know that the multiples being paid for them are going to come down. For instance, buying a 9.4 CGC graded SA book for 1.5 X guide is probably a good future investment. For instance, I bought Iron Man #1 and Sub Mariner # 1 CGC graded at 9.4 for less than 1.5 X the NM guide value. However, if you kill me, I wouldn't have spent $12 K on a 9.8 Iron Man #1. Whether you're investing in stocks, collectibles, land acquisitions, etc. you always have to do research and be smart. I think that since a lot of us comic fans have such great knowledge in the characters and the comic book market in general, that we choose to invest in something we are familiar with and like, rather than a fortune 500 company that we've never heard of.

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joe_collector

joe_collector

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We can't just say that the comics you own today will be worthless 20 years from now, since most people would throw them away or treat them like beaten down pieces of rag.

 

Buddy, you are definitely way out there, that's for sure.

 

When comic fandom started up, comics were worth squat and fans collected and stored their comics because of their love for the hobby. I also know that if my books were to become worthless tomorrow, I would not toss them away or wreck them, and I doubt any on here would.

 

Ask Beyonder if he'd tear up his Byrne books, ask Greggy to see if he would trash his HG DC's, and see if POV would put his Horror books through the wringer...

 

And as for investing in comics, you missed that boat by around 15-17 years. Dropping thousands of dollars for what would have cost you $5-$10 in 1988 is not going to change that fact.

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skybolt

skybolt

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Hmmm, interesting.

 

There were hundreds of thousands of early Action Comic books printed, but now there are less than a 100 for each issue (most of which are in fair and good condition). I applaud the ones that kept their books, but like I mentioned before, 99.9999% of others didn't. You and some others may keep your books, but many, many others will throw them away or put them in the 50 cent bin to rot. If you think that investing in comic books is a bad idea then I guess Metropolis, Heritage and Mile High should already be out of business. They keep buying and selling and making a profit year after year like no one's business. I also guess that the X-Men #101 book I sold on line for $450 (600% profit) was just smoke and mirrors. Some of these other collectors on this board (who have a much greater knowledge than I do in investing in comic books) will give you even better examples.

 

Wait a second, what am I saying. Actually, I really hope that most people take your advice and not invest or collect comic books, then my collection would really be worth something 20 years from now. angel.gif

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joe_collector

joe_collector

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If you think that investing in comic books is a bad idea then I guess Metropolis, Heritage and Mile High should already be out of business. They keep buying and selling and making a profit year after year like no one's business.

 

27_laughing.gif27_laughing.gif27_laughing.gif27_laughing.gif27_laughing.gif27_laughing.gif

 

Oh man, this is too rich.

 

Here's a hint, large dealers like Metro do not invest and have never invested in comics. They make their money by SELLING to investors at nosebleed prices, while low-balling their "bulk collection buys" (please see Chuck and the Church Collection) to make the greatest profits.

 

These larger players are the ones SELLING the comics for record prices, not the insufficiently_thoughtful_person speculator-investors BUYING them at full market price. That's the difference, and if you want to buy collections raw at 25% Guide, then submit the gems to CGC to sell at 20X Guide, then do so, but at that point you're a dealer running a business, and making money off the speculators and investors.

 

Or to put it another way, you listing those crazy sales simply confirms that anyone who bought for $10 in 1988, sat on the books, and then sold it on EBay for $2K in 2004, made a pretty good investment. Now as for the Johnny-come-lately sucker who bought in at $2K in 2004... 27_laughing.gif

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skybolt

skybolt

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You mention that "investing in comics, you missed that boat by around 15-17 years. Dropping thousands of dollars for what would have cost you $5-$10 in 1988 is not going to change that fact".

 

Are you kidding me. That's like saying why should I spend a $150 a share on an IBM stock if 25 years ago it was only worth $25 a share, or why spend a $400,000 on a house todaysince 20 years ago it was only worth $80,000. O.K., you might say that collectables are a little different, however, a Rembrandt painting would sell for 10 times as much today as 20 years ago. I'm sure the owner is very glad that he paid the $20,000 back then instead of thinking, darn I'm not going to buy this painting since in 1950 it was only worth $1,000. Pretty soon you're going to tell me that I shouldn't buy that loaf of bread since it costs 4 times what it used to. Time changes everything - it's called inflation.

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joe_collector

joe_collector

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O.K., you might say that collectables are a little different, however, a Rembrandt painting would sell for 10 times as much today as 20 years ago.

 

You really don't have a clue about the past market performance of fine art, do you?

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joe_collector

joe_collector

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Time changes everything - it's called inflation.

 

You should really tell that to the people who bought slabbed coins during the speculator run-up, or the suckers who mortgaged their houses to buy graded sportscards during the hype, or .....

 

In case you were living under a rock, prices have still not, over a decade later, not come back to previous, speculator-driven price levels. Great investment, eh?

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skybolt

skybolt

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That is why I stated that it's not a good investment to pay 50 times guide for a 9.8 CGC graded book, and most comic book collectors and investors would agree. Most of the books I buy are over 40 years old and their value has appreciated by 5 or 10% every year. I'm not planning on retiring on my comic book collection, since I have good job outside the field. If in 10 to 20 years from now I decide to sell these books then I hope to make a decent profit (at least something higher than the 1% being earned at the bank these days). If in the meantime I see that someone wants to buy my book for multiples of what I paid for it, then why not. My recommendation to comic book collectors is to buy for the love of the hobby, and the investment part will work itself out.

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duncan36

duncan36

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Silver age will crash when a decent % of people who own comics think 'jezus I have tens-hundreds of thousands holed up in this stuff, if the bottom falls out I'm sunk, better sell.'

 

All that can be assured is that markets that never seems to experience any pain are heavily manipulated so when a correction/depression does happen it'll be all the more painful.

 

I'm already sensing a 'lets unload this stuff while its hot' mentality building steam, thats a warning sign IMO.

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ninanina

ninanina

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I'm already sensing a 'lets unload this stuff while its hot' mentality building steam, thats a warning sign IMO.

 

Yup...that's exactly how I felt when I unloaded a buncha' Silver Age about 20 years ago.

 

....anybody else? Be honest now. smirk.gif

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blowout

blowout

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I'm already sensing a 'lets unload this stuff while its hot' mentality building steam, thats a warning sign IMO.

 

True enough, but thats largely in the high grade CGC market, which is a small percentage of the hobby as a whole. 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

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nochips

nochips

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Silver age will crash when a decent % of people who own comics think 'jezus I have tens-hundreds of thousands holed up in this stuff, if the bottom falls out I'm sunk, better sell.'

 

All that can be assured is that markets that never seems to experience any pain are heavily manipulated so when a correction/depression does happen it'll be all the more painful.

 

I'm already sensing a 'lets unload this stuff while its hot' mentality building steam, thats a warning sign IMO.

 

The local comic mega dealer in my area is out of the CGC market. They used have hundreds of books. I was there last week. They have a short box of keys. Every slabbed book was sold over the past year. According to the manager, they feel the CGC market is way over inflated(really!), and they got out while they could. I am not sure about the entire crash, but CGC submissions is not something I think about anymore. I will buy some slabbed books, but I can't justify a five month wait for a return. That's poor service. They know it, but thye really have not figured out a way to fix it.

 

The California real estate market crashed years ago, so a crash is certainly possible for comics. We would be naive to think an adjustment is not coming soon.

 

I see people trying to sell books for amounts less than the CGC grading fees. That's an issue. If a supermarket was selling food for less than cost it would be an indicator of something amiss. If a gas station sold fuel at a loss, well you get the idea...I was just looking at some auctions on ebay. Some poor soul had 25+ listings of slabbed silver age books. Nothing worth more than 10.00 raw, and he them them slabbed? CGC and ebay are the winners in that battle. CGC got paid to slab that stuff and ebay got the listing fees.

 

If I could buy stock in CGC I would. They are the real winners in the grading war.

 

Is a true crash coming? Maybe not, but an adjustment is just around the corner....

 

 

acclaim.gif

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Aman619

Aman619

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weve always felt we have too much in these things and they are selling for crazy money now and wont continue. Now having said that, we are experiencing seriously high prices of late. But - - Ive said plenty in the past about the crash or not crash and my bottom line, is well all have to just wait and see what happens.

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joe_collector

joe_collector

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weve always felt we have too much in these things and they are selling for crazy money now and wont continue.

 

Are you crazy?

 

I NEVER felt like that, and since the 1980's, have been putting consistent money into my Bronze collection because the prices were definitely right. I never stopped collecting, never fell for the "speculator rush" and didn't "take a break" during the tough times. I've always been buying Bronze, obviously because I love collecting, but also because prices were commensurate with value.

 

That said, I have cut back on my CGC/HG collecting, and firmly believe that prices cannot maintain their current levels. Prices are simply out of whack with reality, and since I've always been right in the past (comics, cards, NASDAQ, etc.), I've learned to trust my instincts.

 

Now please, enough of this "we all thought Silver Age would crash 20 years ago (1985)" because that is 100% false and makes you look like a fool. Especially since in 1985 only the earliest Silver was worth anything, and most of today's Silver keys were selling for $5-$10.

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