With Hard Asset Prices Plummeting, What's Next for the OA Market?

[otherworldsj33]

I agree with the premise of this thread generally but would caution there are many things that distinguish OA and precious metals form each other. Everything is relative. So when comparing OA and gold one will be comparatively overvalued. That doesn't mean that in the scheme of all assets they can't both be undervalued. I think the price of gold after today's events and the last 2 months is extremely undervalued. I was thinking about buying some more today before Gene posted his question. Now considering gold's status as a reserve currency and being a much more liquid and tradable asset as well as preventing government monitoring of wealth (with physical gold at least); I would argue it has much more appeal to the general masses and also given the continued devaluation of the dollar is a very good buy at current prices and an even better buy (like everything else) if prices continue lower. However I think over the very long term original art also continues to be undervalued. So, is gold a better buy than OA, Yes possibly. But hey I think timber is the best investment of all but I don't put all my money into timberland. At some point it comes down to dollars in the bank versus something else. There is no incentive right now to having dollars in the bank and the fed seems intent on pushing everyone into equities. I tend to be contrarian and I believe when govt distorts markets like they are doing right now disaster tends to follow. That being said, I'm lightening up on equities, adding to my gold and silver as prices go lower, buying oa that adds to my collection at prices that I think can at least break even with inflation and keeping an eye on all these moving parts. Wow, living in 2013 is exhausting.

 

At the rate the fed is printing money, we could very well lose our status as the worlds reserve currency.

[suspense39]

Outside of a few crazy macfarlane prices....this market still seems like small potatoes to me (overall). It's still possible to get impotortant and and influential original peices for a few thousand dollars..sometimes even a few hundred. Try getting an impotant peice of post war - contemporary art for that. This also a fairly new area of collecting, its only starting to grow and become appealing to a broader audience from what i can tell. I personally think there will be a small dip or correction and may be holding back a little in the next auction as well.

 

The market is still maturing, but, and maybe I am not looking in the right places, but what important and influential pieces can one get for a couple of thousand or less? Are you talking about modern art that might one day be in that category, or pieces that are already established? I have not seen anything from the copper age back that could be had for those prices. Again, maybe I am not looking properly, I just don't see it.

 

I guess it depends what you mean by "important & influential" but for example folks have been picking up Boys Ranch pages by Simon & Kirby (and mostly Kirby) in the 2K range. Some from the very first story, and Boys Ranch was certainly an influential title. Staying with Kirby, you can still get various 70's panel pages, even 4th World, in the same range. Silver Age superhero pages by Heck and Colan, not the best ones but certainly good ones. JLA large art panel pages. Kane Green Lantern & Atom. Lots of stuff.

 

 

Therein is the discrepancy. I looked up the defitions of both words, even though we all know what they mean, just to make sure we are on the same page, so to speak. Influential:The definition of influential is someone or something that has an impact on or shapes how people act or how things occur. Important:Strongly affecting the course of events or the nature of things; significant

So I wouldn't argue that Boys Ranch is important and influential in regards to how it influenced other artists in the field, and that it is a great piece of work in general. Same for a great Mr. Miracle piece or story other 4th world, or the Glory Boat story, or the whole work together as one big story. And as far as nice large art JLA, GL, etc., panel pages, for the most part, most of them are not important or influential, but certainly, especially the earlier issues, some of the singular pieces fall into the important, and influential catagory. So I won't offer a debate, based on the definitons of important and influential.

But in my view, what would be important, and/or influential is more along the lines of what many outside our hobby are at least a little bit famaliar with, and helped shape comic history, and had a impact on our culture. Such as Spiderman (Ditko or Romita), Kirby's FF's, X-Men, Thor, and the Avengers. The Superman 14 cover, and other DC GA covers still in existance, A fair amount of EC stuff. Showcase 4, 22, maybe 36. A lot of early to mid silver age DC stuff. Barry Smith's Conan, Berni Wrightson's Swamp Thing, to name a couple from the BA. A decent amount of Neal Adams work, especially covers and splash pages from the BA period. Dark Knight, Watchman, Sandman, Millers DD, and TMNT, to name a few from more recent times. Some of Mcfarlanes work on Spider-man, although I think a lot of it is overpriced. Anyway, I think that is enough examples to get the gist of what I consider Important and influential, even if it does not line up, technically, with the official definitions. I would very much like to know what others think about this.

 

you should probably start a new thread for this question

[Silver Surfer]

They way I see it is that if you have been playing the gold market over the last few five years you have made out like a bandit so price drop now shouldn't be too much of an issue if you used those gains to fund new OA purchases.

[jbud73]

was there a severe lull in auction sales and values of comic art in 2008 and 2009? I sure didn't notice it....

 

If it didn't happen then...I "REALLY" doubt it will happen now.

 

Actually, some of the best bargains of my collecting career I got in early 2009 (e.g., the Vampirella #1 complete story and the Conan #23 1st Red Sonja page). I highly doubt I would have been able to get these where I did had they been offered in, say, July 2008 when the market was at its then-zenith. Of course, the Heritage Illustration Art sale in February 2009 was nothing short of an all-out bloodbath.

 

The reason you didn't see a huge, obvious dropping off of the comic art market in late 2008 and early 2009 is that the downturn was so short-lived before the financial system and economy was flooded with liquidity again. I think many collectors just sat on their hands during this time, but if the downturn had extended another 6-12 months, I suspect the impact on prices would have been more pronounced. As it was, I suspect that a good number of sales that we saw in late 2008 and early 2009 would have been higher had they been offered in mid-2008.

 

One area we did see a big drop-off was in lower-end art. In mid-2008, it seemed like everything was flying off the shelves, low, medium and high-end art. In 2009-10, it seemed like low-end art barely recovered while high-end prices took off during the reflation. There's still a lot of lower-end art that is probably not too far above mid-2008 levels even while a lot of top-tier art has probably doubled or tripled in value since early 2009. And, given that huge price appreciation in such a short amount of time, I suspect that the price reaction to a downturn now would be more pronounced than it was in those 6 months of 2008-9 where the financial system locked up.

 

In any case, past performance is no guarantee of future results; asset-price returns are mean-reverting over time.

 

The classic dealer vs collector argument. As I said in my earlier post, with all the material coming on to the market, a lot of people are saying, by definition, that now is a time to sell. Does that mean that now is also a time to buy? I think that is the question I wrestle with a lot. My answer, which is pretty much the same as Gene's answer is, "that depends on the price"

 

Here is what I'm seeing from my view (let's call it the 4K-8K frontier).

 

There is a lot of material, a lot of new material in the marketplace. The auction houses seem to be the best place for a collector to buy art right now. There is a bit of a slope to that argument, though I think a necessary one. If you were to purchase from a dealer or collector who was in the early phases of shopping their piece, you would more than likely over pay. Now the risk you run is that by not paying, someone else will buy the piece. However, what I am seeing is a lot of is initial offerings going unsold when a piece (again in the 4-8K frontier) makes the rounds. Ultimately these pieces are finding their way to Auction houses where they are selling to TWO different buyers. Buyer A is a collector who is getting the piece at closer to market value. Buyer B is a dealer who is getting the piece at closer to market value and then offering it for the same price point as the previous owner did when it made the rounds initially. Sometimes, as Gene did on the ASM 299 and on other pieces in my frontier, you are getting a great deal at auction, but on the pieces in my frontier more dealers are bidding against you so the reduction is tempered (you can also make further analysis regarding the level to which dealers are artificially propping up the market due to this, but its still hard to gauge).

 

Overall IMO, as Gene has also intimated, making a fair offer and not being tempted to over pay on initial offerings is becoming a rule that I am sticking to in the current marketplace. With all the pieces that I have made offers on showing up at auction houses I see no reason to discontinue this practice.

 

The second thing to understand is timing the WAVE. Again Gene's ASM buy (which I think was one of the most well bought pieces of the last year) was a product of NOT going through the Door first. As we saw will Miller DDs and subsequently McSpidey's. A few strong sales will usually shake similar pieces loose and this, depending on the amount of similar work the artist produced can go on for many months. Just look at the ASM 328 Cover $657K and the ASM 299 Cover $65K The only Universe where that makes sense in the Universe of getting in too early.

 

So where does that leave me and the 4K - 8K Frontier? Actually in the usual places; buy what I like, don't be afraid to say no, don't over pay, and be VERY careful if buying a piece for Investment (you will have to spend more for the Investment piece, you will have to consider TIMING and you will have to SELL when the market dictates instead of when you may want too).

 

[drdroom]

Outside of a few crazy macfarlane prices....this market still seems like small potatoes to me (overall). It's still possible to get impotortant and and influential original peices for a few thousand dollars..sometimes even a few hundred. Try getting an impotant peice of post war - contemporary art for that. This also a fairly new area of collecting, its only starting to grow and become appealing to a broader audience from what i can tell. I personally think there will be a small dip or correction and may be holding back a little in the next auction as well.

 

The market is still maturing, but, and maybe I am not looking in the right places, but what important and influential pieces can one get for a couple of thousand or less? Are you talking about modern art that might one day be in that category, or pieces that are already established? I have not seen anything from the copper age back that could be had for those prices. Again, maybe I am not looking properly, I just don't see it.

 

I guess it depends what you mean by "important & influential" but for example folks have been picking up Boys Ranch pages by Simon & Kirby (and mostly Kirby) in the 2K range. Some from the very first story, and Boys Ranch was certainly an influential title. Staying with Kirby, you can still get various 70's panel pages, even 4th World, in the same range. Silver Age superhero pages by Heck and Colan, not the best ones but certainly good ones. JLA large art panel pages. Kane Green Lantern & Atom. Lots of stuff.

 

 

Therein is the discrepancy. I looked up the defitions of both words, even though we all know what they mean, just to make sure we are on the same page, so to speak. Influential:The definition of influential is someone or something that has an impact on or shapes how people act or how things occur. Important:Strongly affecting the course of events or the nature of things; significant

So I wouldn't argue that Boys Ranch is important and influential in regards to how it influenced other artists in the field, and that it is a great piece of work in general. Same for a great Mr. Miracle piece or story other 4th world, or the Glory Boat story, or the whole work together as one big story. And as far as nice large art JLA, GL, etc., panel pages, for the most part, most of them are not important or influential, but certainly, especially the earlier issues, some of the singular pieces fall into the important, and influential catagory. So I won't offer a debate, based on the definitons of important and influential.

But in my view, what would be important, and/or influential is more along the lines of what many outside our hobby are at least a little bit famaliar with, and helped shape comic history, and had a impact on our culture. Such as Spiderman (Ditko or Romita), Kirby's FF's, X-Men, Thor, and the Avengers. The Superman 14 cover, and other DC GA covers still in existance, A fair amount of EC stuff. Showcase 4, 22, maybe 36. A lot of early to mid silver age DC stuff. Barry Smith's Conan, Berni Wrightson's Swamp Thing, to name a couple from the BA. A decent amount of Neal Adams work, especially covers and splash pages from the BA period. Dark Knight, Watchman, Sandman, Millers DD, and TMNT, to name a few from more recent times. Some of Mcfarlanes work on Spider-man, although I think a lot of it is overpriced. Anyway, I think that is enough examples to get the gist of what I consider Important and influential, even if it does not line up, technically, with the official definitions. I would very much like to know what others think about this.

 

you should probably start a new thread for this question

 

That ain't gonna happen! This thread is highjacked!

 

My view is, what people outside the hobby know don't matter. If it influenced the pros in the industry then everyone else was affected whether they know it or not. I'm not gonna cede final say on importance to some non-comic literate goons in the mall. So, now that's off my chest, I'll make a case for the 4th World, that fits your criteria of influence: It was the template for all the cosmic war/ crossover/ event miniseries that followed, essentially a new type of superhero story, larger in scale, that is now commonplace. I don't see Swamp Thing or Conan as very influential compared with that. They were just beautiful examples of their genres. I agree with Adams though.

[drdroom]

Most of that was response to Otherworlds, not Suspense39, just to clarify...

[suspense39]

wel since its been highjacked on ebay today a 1941 cc beck captain marvel # 5 just went for about 600.00....in its day captain marvel was WAY more poular than Superman.

[delekkerste]

They way I see it is that if you have been playing the gold market over the last few five years you have made out like a bandit so price drop now shouldn't be too much of an issue if you used those gains to fund new OA purchases.

 

I'm not going to speak in terms of personal specifics, but, for most people who own gold, it is only one small part of their overall portfolio and not what is going to drive their buying power (for most people, the level/growth of their job income is what matters most). Gold is also often held as a disaster hedge and so many owners would not sell it to fund other purchases. And, for those that would, chances are that those people already ramped up their spending to reflect the wealth effect from those gold gains - much of which has evaporated since September 2011.

 

Furthermore, the average person who bought gold 5 years ago and watched it go up probably also bought gold 4 years ago, 3 years ago, 2 years ago, 1 year ago, etc. and is probably underwater on their last few purchases. I daresay that the same thing happens to OA collectors - anyone who's been in this hobby for a while probably owns at least some art that has appreciated substantially. But, of course, purchases made more recently (which are generally much higher in $ amount given where the market is now) could easily bring down one's overall return dramatically should we see any kind of pullback in the market. I've identified a number of "white elephant" transactions that have occurred over the past couple of years (like the $657K ASM #328 cover) where I think it is highly unlikely that their owners will ever be able to recoup their purchase prices adjusted for inflation and net of any transaction costs.

[Bronty]

Not directed at you Gene but I sincerely hope to never read about the asm 328 sale again. So much talk about such a clear outlier. Makes me pine for the days the talk was about the miller splash Ok not really but almost

[Bronty]

^ It would be nice for a more legitimate champion to surface though. A record breaking ditko asm cover, or what have you. Maybe the best af15 interior, if there is a page that is good enough and if the story hadnt been donated. Something that didnt appear to be an outlier.

 

Truth be told given metros involvement in the 328, I am surprised we havent seen a $1m comic art sale yet as I believed at the time (and still do) that they werent paying that kind of money without a plan. Of course, I could be wrong.

[inovrmihd]

I know this is obvious, but there no 2 and 20 funds that levered up to buy OA, nor is it a liquid asset class. Speaking to the high end segment, I don't think the comparison with PM's holds, specifically given the current market structure where ownership is highly concentrated.

[Pete Marino]

I know this is obvious, but there no 2 and 20 funds that levered up to buy OA, nor is it a liquid asset class. Speaking to the high end segment, I don't think the comparison with PM's holds, specifically given the current market structure where ownership is highly concentrated.

 

Interesting point.

 

There doesn't need to be many people entering or exiting a given part of the OA market to move the needle a lot in some cases...

 

Much less the low water mark dealers put into the market as well at auction.

[Bronty]

I know this is obvious, but there no 2 and 20 funds that levered up to buy OA, nor is it a liquid asset class. Speaking to the high end segment, I don't think the comparison with PM's holds, specifically given the current market structure where ownership is highly concentrated.

 

Sure, in my view that's the trouble with analogizing OA to equities. The OA market is not an efficient market and the items traded are not identical (a share of Coke is a share of Coke... but a kirby FF page is not the same as another kirby FF page), so the comparisons is fraught with peril.

 

That being said I think the gist of the OP was more of a cause and effect than comparative analysis - ie that current equity returns may be indicative of a movement in the economy that may devalue OA (among other things and relative to cash). Hopefully any deflationary pressures are temporary.

 

Hey... post 15000!!

[cujobyte]

Gene's threads and comments are the best on these boards for me personally speaking, Bronty you are a close second though

 

If there were ever a minnow in the world of art, that would be me, with my lil Walking Dead cover probably as the highlight of my collection, or my J.Jean covers.

 

For us in the modern OA world, we strictly only buy what we like, rarely ever thinking of *investment* because frankly, a $400 cover (which is what my Walking Dead cover cost in 09) is a very small "gamble" so to speak. The upside is very often our miniscule purchases do go up in value. The downside is our collector base is much more limited, especially when a book doesn't take off.

 

Corrections to any bubble are healthy imo, but I'm not necessarily convinced that is what is happening in the world of O.A.

 

"That being said I think the gist of the OP was more of a cause and effect than comparative analysis - ie that current equity returns may be indicative of a movement in the economy that may devalue OA (among other things and relative to cash). Hopefully any deflationary pressures are temporary."

 

Perhaps they will only be temporary though. Gene, are you thinking people will start liquidating in hopes of catching Gold (for example) on an upswing, with all that is happening?

 

I have a lot of wealthy customers at my business, most seem to be reinvesting in real estate right now. But a few have asked me to buy high end comics for them tho, and others always wondering why I invest in comics and comic art. As for me, I'll enjoy viewing Gene and Bronty's purchases on the sidelines, while I obtain more modern art.

 

 

[Silver Surfer]

With the ASM #328 cover I'm sure the guys at Metro bought this knowing that they have a few rabid collectors/client's who will eventually pay $1M dollars for it a few years from now. Personally I wouldn't pay $10K for it as I think McFarlane's art is so overrated and while his contribution to the industry at the time was substantial for me it was the best of the worst during the most forgettable decade in comics, the 90's.

[Bronty]

viewing Gene and Bronty's purchases on the sidelines, while I obtain more modern art.

 

you are giving me too much credit, I just talk big

 

(although I appreciate what you are saying between the lines - thanks Nick ).

[Bronty]

With the ASM #328 cover I'm sure the guys at Metro bought this knowing that they have a few rabid collectors/client's who will eventually pay $1M dollars for it a few years from now. Personally I wouldn't pay $10K for it as I think McFarlane's art is so overrated and while his contribution to the industry at the time was substantial for me it was the best of the worst during the most forgettable decade in comics, the 90's.

 

I have trouble thinking that they'd pay so much above the otherwise FMV just on a hope and prayer that in a few years they can flip it. I have to believe they have a much more concrete plan

[Bronty]

Gene's threads and comments are the best on these boards for me personally speaking, Bronty you are a close second though

 

 

Too kind sir! I hope when the book gets published you will let us know. Looking forward to seeing that J.O'Barr cover too!

[Silver Surfer]

With the ASM #328 cover I'm sure the guys at Metro bought this knowing that they have a few rabid collectors/client's who will eventually pay $1M dollars for it a few years from now. Personally I wouldn't pay $10K for it as I think McFarlane's art is so overrated and while his contribution to the industry at the time was substantial for me it was the best of the worst during the most forgettable decade in comics, the 90's.

 

I have trouble thinking that they'd pay so much above the otherwise FMV just on a hope and prayer that in a few years they can flip it. I have to believe they have a much more concrete plan

 

I agree but a quick search of the Heritage archives most expensive OA pieces and you can't help but shake your head. Give me 10 classic Buscema and Byrne covers instead any day of the week!

[Bronty]

I know, I don't get it either (although I grew up with and like mcfarlane more than you seem too although I am not irrationally in love with it). They have to have had a plan but I'll be darned if I can tell what it was from here on the sidelines.