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THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB
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Started by HarveySwick,

14,480 posts in this topic

Sweet Lou 14

Sweet Lou 14

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, peewee22 said:

GK is just making us aware of the book and current bid. To me, it means at LEAST someone will have to pay 400k to win the book regardless of the remaining auction days. (thumbsu

Agreed.  I'm just wondering aloud two things.

First, does strong early bidding really make a difference in where the final price ends up, as compared against last-second sniping?  I have no idea although I suspect yes.

Second, what is the meaning of a strong early bid?  Many serious bidders like to place very low "marker bids" just to keep track of the books they're interested in, but few (I think?) want to show their strong interest very early.  Now since I'm wondering aloud, let me argue the other side.  Maybe a serious bidder wants to bid strong early because he hopes to scare away other bidders.  But honestly I don't think that strategy would actually work.  It might work on the kind of common book that most bidders will go after only if there's a bargain to be had, but I don't think it works on a book that is getting this much attention.

Having said all of that, because I don't travel in the rarified air of 9.0 AF 15s, I had no idea off-hand what the market is for that grade.  I just looked it up and GPA has the book at $395,000.  So yes, the fact that it is already at $390,000 18 days before auction close is definitely newsworthy.  My apologies if I implied otherwise.

Since the book has "only" off-white pages, but bears the CVA Exceptional sticker, I guess it's a good test case for speculating on just how much value that little sticker has.  I would think most bidders are just going to go by what their eyes see (and it's a gorgeous book for sure), but maybe there are some who are putting real value on CVA in this instance.

Edited by Sweet Lou 14
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peewee22

peewee22

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Agreed.  I'm just wondering aloud two things.

First, does strong early bidding really make a difference in where the final price ends up, as compared against last-second sniping?  I have no idea although I suspect yes.

Second, what is the meaning of a strong early bid?  Many serious bidders like to place very low "marker bids" just to keep track of the books they're interested in, but few (I think?) want to show their strong interest very early.  Now since I'm wondering aloud, let me argue the other side.  Maybe a serious bidder wants to bid strong early because he hopes to scare away other bidders.  But honestly I don't think that strategy would actually work.  It might work on the kind of common book that most bidders will go after only if there's a bargain to be had, but I don't think it works on a book that is getting this much attention.

Having said all of that, because I don't travel in the rarified air of 9.0 AF 15s, I had no idea off-hand what the market is for that grade.  I just looked it up and GPA has the book at $395,000.  So yes, the fact that it is already at $390,000 18 days before auction close is definitely newsworthy.  My apologies if I implied otherwise.

Since the book has "only" off-white pages, but bears the CVA Exceptional sticker, I guess it's a good test case for speculating on just how much value that little sticker has.  I would think most bidders are just going to go by what their eyes see (and it's a gorgeous book for sure), but maybe there are some who are putting real value on CVA in this instance.

No apologies needed. You were stating the "early bid syndrome" and that's great. I don't get a chance to view the auction houses. Glad to see a nice one is up for auction. I think it will sit for a few days and more bidding toward the end (final 2 days). That's my guess. Here's a comparable 2016 price, 2 years ago:

 Heritage Auctions in Dallas on Feb. 18, 2016 for $454,100, a record price

 

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Mr bla bla

Mr bla bla

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, peewee22 said:

No apologies needed. You were stating the "early bid syndrome" and that's great. I don't get a chance to view the auction houses. Glad to see a nice one is up for auction. I think it will sit for a few days and more bidding toward the end (final 2 days). That's my guess. Here's a comparable 2016 price, 2 years ago:

 Heritage Auctions in Dallas on Feb. 18, 2016 for $454,100, a record price

 

And that was 2 years ago ...

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Sweet Lou 14

Sweet Lou 14

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31 minutes ago, StephenWA said:

Can I join the AF15 club with my CGC NG SS page 7? Does anyone else like The Bellringer story :-)

image.jpeg

Most collectors who buy into the hype of the Bell-Ringer's first full appearance in AF 15 don't fully appreciate his cameo in the last panel of AAF 14.  I think that book is undervalued.

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Readcomix

Readcomix

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6 hours ago, comicquant said:

Run.  Every time this happens someone posts a comment a couple weeks later they've been ripped off.  

I'm not going near the guy. Just thought it would be fun to watch unfold, dissect the back story. The detective work around here sometimes on these screwy things is amazing. I was just sorting recent sold listings for pricing/recent going rate #'s and came across it.

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Glassman10

Glassman10

Posted
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7 hours ago, comicquant said:

Run.  Every time this happens someone posts a comment a couple weeks later they've been ripped off.  

which is odd in itself since the buyer would know the real value of the book or they would not have bid, so, the buyer is trying to rip off the seller in a way.  

It strikes me that on late bidding for the AF15 that there were several examples back in the fall where there was virtually no bidding at all in the endgame of two books. It was during that time frame where the 4.0-6.5 were really volatile as to price.  I don't recall more than that.  With the most recent book, I would not bid too early but on the other hand, I would get pretty edgy if I was the seller and I was not seeing interest in a book with a clear FMV.  Did the book have a reserve? I recall some people buying books back from themselves, a pricey endeavor.

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peewee22

peewee22

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Posted
2 hours ago, Glassman10 said:

which is odd in itself since the buyer would know the real value of the book or they would not have bid, so, the buyer is trying to rip off the seller in a way.  

It strikes me that on late bidding for the AF15 that there were several examples back in the fall where there was virtually no bidding at all in the endgame of two books. It was during that time frame where the 4.0-6.5 were really volatile as to price.  I don't recall more than that.  With the most recent book, I would not bid too early but on the other hand, I would get pretty edgy if I was the seller and I was not seeing interest in a book with a clear FMV.  Did the book have a reserve? I recall some people buying books back from themselves, a pricey endeavor.

I'm more concerned about the $3.25 shipping cost. Who's going to ship an AF15 for this? lol

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