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THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB
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14,479 posts in this topic

5 hours ago, Spiderphill said:

No matter the topic you still sound clueless. Marry your AF15. 

I prefer my AF15 slash piece of paper any day of the week over a marriage piece of paper!! It actually makes me happy!!

Edited by SC22
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53 minutes ago, Agent 007 said:

 I like SC22 posts.  He's on top of things.  I like the opinions as well.  I see to many of the same people leaving notes about why this was done or not done as they seem to be in the KNOW and I have to take their comments at face value only.  I assume everyone has an angle.  I think the AF15 prices are whacked, but if you can afford it, I'm happy for you.  What goes up, will go down and reset again.  

Thanks.....at least you know variety in types of conversations can be enjoyed!!

Edited by SC22
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3 minutes ago, SC22 said:

I prefer my AF15 slash piece of paper any day of the week over a marriage piece of paper!! It actually makes me happy!!

Yea until one of your right edge chips divorces your cover. 

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3 minutes ago, Spiderphill said:

Yea until one of your right edge chips divorces your cover. 

Nah I love it for real so even for it's flaws that is what they say true love is about....or marriage in most cases anyway!! I can't say I ever felt the same about other stuff in life. Hobbies and pets what a great combination to make you smile....oh and nature as well hmmm the trifecta of happiness!!

Edited by SC22
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38 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

I'm not talking about whether AF #15 is not a terrific book to own.

I'm not saying it shouldn't increase in price or is not a good investment.

I'm not trying to talk the book down.

All I am saying is that prices doubling and tripling in a year on a book that has already been steadily increasing is unsafe for the long haul.

It's great for those who want to get in and out but not good for building a stable hobby.

Honestly, I think we've flown way past the stage where getting in and out is likely to work.  I don't think there's going to be an out any time soon for the guy who bought the 4.0 in the Heritage auction.  He needs a 10% appreciation just to break even.  Of course, 10% seems like nothing right now, but that's the kind of thinking that led people to lose their shirts in tech stocks in 2000 and Miami condos in 2006.

And, yeah, what exactly has happened in the past couple of years that would make sense of the price movement we've seen on this book?  Nothing I can see other than people convincing themselves that AF 15s are a can't miss investment.  As I mentioned some posts back, I find it hard to believe that many collectors sitting on mid-grade copies aren't at some point going to wake up to the fact that by selling they could realize a sizable chunk of change to devote to other uses.  I don't think those copies will be easily absorbed in the market without a significant price correction.

But I guess we all need to check back in a year and see where we are. :)

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5 minutes ago, SC22 said:

Nah I love it for real so even for it's flaws that is what they say true love is about....or marriage in most cases anyway!! I can't say I ever felt the same about other stuff in life. Hobbies and pets what a great combination to make you smile....oh and nature as well hmmm the trifecta of happiness!!

I'll stick with beautiful women. 

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6 hours ago, ThothAmon said:

Just pulled this nugget off the NY Fed's website.  "Total household indebtedness stood at $12.73 trillion as of March 31, 2017, marking a $149 billion or 1.2 percent increase from the fourth quarter of 2016. This increase put overall household debt $50 billion above its previous peak set in the third quarter of 2008 and 14.1 percent above the trough set in the second quarter of 2013."  Hopefully, people are being smart about borrowing to finance comic books but in general the consumer is at an all time comfort level and prices of comics are benefitting from it.

A ton of student loans and car loans is driving that.  The federal govt is on the hook for a lot of student loan debt that's unlikely to be paid off.  The revival of the housing market has greatly increased mortgage debt, although it's still well below 2008 levels.

Certainly people have made a lot of dough leveraging up investments, but it's been hard not to make dough investing in just about anything since 2009.

But anybody who's leveraging up to invest in comics at current prices better have been born under a lucky star. :)

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25 minutes ago, SC22 said:

I prefer my AF15 slash piece of paper any day of the week over a marriage piece of paper!! It actually makes me happy!!

When I had been with Louise for a couple of years I walked up to her and told her I was making a significant purchase. I  bought a Timely for $25K for my collection.

I showed it to her and she replied "As long as you can pay your half of the bills and it makes you happy." And that was it.

If you're with the wrong person it's going to suck whether you're married or not.

If you're with the right person you can never explain that to anyone. It's like having kids. You can't explain it. You can only hope that one day they experience it too.

I'll go on record as saying it's way more satisfying raising a family than owning every Marvel key in highest grades.

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5 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

When I had been with Louise for a couple of years I walked up to her and told her I was making a significant purchase. I  bought a Timely for $25K for my collection.

I showed it to her and she replied "As long as you can pay your half of the bills and it makes you happy." And that was it.

If you're with the wrong person it's going to suck whether you're married or not.

If you're with the right person you can never explain that to anyone. It's like having kids. You can't explain it. You can only hope that one day they experience it too.

I'll go on record as saying it's way more satisfying raising a family than owning every Marvel key in highest grades.

+1 I never hide purchases from my wife. Then again I haven't gone over $10K on any one item either! We share our money 100% and yes I out earn her so she cares but she says she knows how happy my OA hobby makes me. (30+ pieces framed on the walls.) And I am decidedly middles class, no house money from OA either. I spend real money.

Earlier in the year I told her I was considering spending $14K on a cover. She got a look on her face and asked why would I do that? (Number one daughter enters Pratt in August.) I told her it was a great cover by Frank Miller. She replied "well, Frank Miller...okay then". (Of course then I saw something else I needed more, which ended poorly as it was ruined in the mail. Still dealing with that situation, see French auciton in the OA forum if you want to see my pain.)

When #1 daughter was young she pointed to the homes on the hill, the big money homes (7 figures and some possibly 8) and asked why we didn't live there. I told her because I was in the car with her and not working all day and night! She got it immediately.

 

Edited by Bird
added last paragraph
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10 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

When I had been with Louise for a couple of years I walked up to her and told her I was making a significant purchase. I  bought a Timely for $25K for my collection.

I showed it to her and she replied "As long as you can pay your half of the bills and it makes you happy." And that was it.

If you're with the wrong person it's going to suck whether you're married or not.

If you're with the right person you can never explain that to anyone. It's like having kids. You can't explain it. You can only hope that one day they experience it too.

I'll go on record as saying it's way more satisfying raising a family than owning every Marvel key in highest grades.

I have no issues with married people that have kids thank the world some people are capable of a normal marriage and raising kids properly....but in the West in the last few decades things have taken a turn for the worse on many levels when it comes to social morals (some think it's a improvement not me)....I live in that generation so I see it all the time and I prefer not invest my time and energy into such a risky adventure. People tend to just walk away when the going gets tough or they have finished draining a ''flower'' then jump to the next ''flower''.

Edited by SC22
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31 minutes ago, Spiderphill said:

I'll stick with beautiful women. 

There a lot of them that are beautiful on the outside (just tons of them they are everywhere) but to find one that is both beautiful in the inside and outside is like ''winning the lotto'' especially nowadays. I have traditional values and I really don't see much of that anymore. I just realized for me it's not my thing to jump from one person to another and if I don't find that special someone I am OK with it and I do not feel like I failed my life in any way because of it (failure is only a human concept people tend to put to much power into like many others for that matter)...a lot of people in each generation fell like they don't belong but realizing it is best than paying the price of just hoping without any thought put into it.

Edited by SC22
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1 hour ago, VintageComics said:

I'm relying on mean (average) prices and trends, not just outliers.  GPA is great for that on common moving books.

When you get into high grade like the 9.0, 9.2 and 9.4 sales you don't have the volume to plot many data points so you have to try to decipher where in the price structure they fall. Was it an outlier, is  it indicative of the market, what other factors influenced the sale (time of day, time of year, venue of choice, etc). These are all things I consdier when I come to a conclusion about what I feel is correct about a given market for a book.

Jay, you often interject descriptive words like 'blockbuster' to try to solidify your argument. Again, there was nothing blockbuster about the $450K sale. Metro was offering $450K for 9.4s last year.

Now if you mean 'blockbuster' to mean big, just because $450K is a big number for the average person to spend then I would agree. But it was an expected price well before the auction started.

I can't comment on that sale as I don't remember it. What was the date that the book sold on?

If Metro was openly offering $450K for a 9.4 and the Heritage copy sold for $450K then you would think the Heritage copy under performed slightly. And maybe the slight tanning turned off a few bidders (just a guess).

Also, AF #15 was already a $100K+ book in 8.0 and a $225K book in 9.0 last year (there are documented examples including PeeWee's Heritage offer on his 8.0 and a Voldemart 9.0 that sold for $230K (give or take)). Where exactly would that put the price point for an 8.5? I had the opportunity to buy an AF #15 CGC 8.5 for $120,000 about 5 years ago and passed because I put that price at full retail and couldn't make a profit at that price. If you think about it, the 8.,5 slightly underformed as well.  I can only presume that it's history affected the bidding a bit (although it shouldn't have).

But the point is the $450K 9.4 sale and the 8.5 $150K were not building to a crescendo. In fact, those numbers may have been on the low side.

Guys, (especially those of you that own AF #15's) I don't want you to misunderstand me.

I'm not talking about whether AF #15 is not a terrific book to own.

I'm not saying it shouldn't increase in price or is not a good investment.

I'm not trying to talk the book down.

All I am saying is that prices doubling and tripling in a year on a book that has already been steadily increasing is unsafe for the long haul.

It's great for those who want to get in and out but not good for building a stable hobby.

I hear you. I told you this morn I'm not excited about the recent prices. No one should be blowing the horn and wearing a party hat. I still believe in Overstreet. Conservative and will never spike up a book based on recent horse racing "past performances". Overstreet is like grandma crossing I-40. She's slow, looks both ways, doesn't get hit, and eventually crosses over. (thumbsu

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48 minutes ago, Bird said:

+1 I never hide purchases from my wife. Then again I haven't gone over $10K on any one item either! We share our money 100% and yes I out earn her so she cares but she says she knows how happy my OA hobby makes me. (30+ pieces framed on the walls.) And I am decidedly middles class, no house money from OA either. I spend real money.

Earlier in the year I told her I was considering spending $14K on a cover. She got a look on her face and asked why would I do that? (Number one daughter enters Pratt in August.) I told her it was a great cover by Frank Miller. She replied "well, Frank Miller...okay then". (Of course then I saw something else I needed more, which ended poorly as it was ruined in the mail. Still dealing with that situation, see French auciton in the OA forum if you want to see my pain.)

When #1 daughter was young she pointed to the homes on the hill, the big money homes (7 figures and some possibly 8) and asked why we didn't live there. I told her because I was in the car with her and not working all day and night! She got it immediately.

 

What was the Miller cover? I need a piece of Miller OA. 

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3 minutes ago, NoMan said:

What was the Miller cover? I need a piece of Miller OA. 

All sold! Lone Wolf & Cub 14.

Edited by Bird
Graphic Collectibles. Mitch. tell him I sent you!
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2 hours ago, peewee22 said:

I hear you. I told you this morn I'm not excited about the recent prices. No one should be blowing the horn and wearing a party hat. I still believe in Overstreet. Conservative and will never spike up a book based on recent horse racing "past performances". Overstreet is like grandma crossing I-40. She's slow, looks both ways, doesn't get hit, and eventually crosses over. (thumbsu

You're right.  Overstreet was a wonderful tool for dealers to screw ignorant and unsuspecting prospective sellers for years ("I'll give you 33% of 'Guide'!").

The market moves light years faster than Overstreet and it has been largely ceremonial and mostly irrelevant for years.  Though I hope it continues to be published forever, I thank god every day for the internet and the access to real time sales that it provides.  

-J.

Edited by Jaydogrules
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6 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

You're right.  Overstreet was a wonderful way for dealers to screw ignorant and unsuspecting prospective sellers for years ("I'll give you 33% of 'Guide'!").

The market moves light years faster than Overstreet and it has been largely ceremonial and mostly irrelevant for years.  Though I hope it continues to be published forever, I thank god every day for the internet and the access to real time sales that it provides.  

-J.

Internet pricing is good....and bad. I like the snail's pace that Overstreet adopted decades ago. I enjoy the traditional annual guide (not just the pricing data). I still like frozen concentrated OJ, too.

In reading the last few pages of posts, looks like you've got bigger fish to fry.

Edited by peewee22
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18 minutes ago, SC22 said:

What is the point of knowing the date I purchased my AF15 who really cares. I paid 35 000$ and again who really cares!!

Exactly, what is the point of any of this constant financial chatter. Listen to your own advice. 

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34 minutes ago, SC22 said:

What is the point of knowing the date I purchased my AF15 who really cares. I paid 35 000$ and again who really cares!!

Then maybe you shouldn't publicize every major comic book purchase you make :

Though I stand corrected, you actually bought your copy in May, 2016 (right before that first  $50k ish sale on comic connect in June).  

And looking back at that thread only further proves my point about the 9.4 causing the spike.  I even forgot about the big pedigree sale of a 9.2 for $400k shortly after it, and the $33k for a 5.5 on eBay after that.   

This book has been spiking for well over a year now, and it's not even close.  

-J.

 

Edited by Jaydogrules
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