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THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB
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14,479 posts in this topic

27 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

All I can say is that 10% of millions and millions is a pretty large percentage here.

I believe it's more like a fraction of less than 1% of Spidey fans who would be interested in the actual Spidey comic books themselves, and only a fraction of that small fraction would be interested in slabbed Spideys which they could not even open and read.  hm

What we both say is just a a wild guess who really knows. But the book still sells all the time so the demand is there no matter what the percentage is.

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2 hours ago, SC22 said:

Only a few thousand have been graded by CGC and most of them range from CGC 0.5 to CGC 5.5 after that they become much scarcer. The demand for Spidey is higher than the supply even if there are a lot more out there that have not been graded as of yet. The market can and does absorb them. There are millions upon millions of Spidey fans worldwide I understand not all of them can afford the book but even if you take say 10% of that number that can that is a whole lot of people versus the amount available graded or not.

I am not sure 10% of Spidey fans can afford an AF15 (or rather would be willing to afford it at these prices).

There are LOTS of fans and there is a high demand for the book, however, I think we are failing to consider two things.

1) Supply - There is a high supply of AF15s out there.  Just go on eBay and you can have your pick of numerous copies any day of the week.  You say a few thousand have been graded, however, who knows how many ungraded copies there are.  I am someone who has rarely ever graded any book regardless of condition (just don't see the point in putting something that was meant to be read in a plastic case where I can not even touch it or smell it).  Yes, demand is high, but so is the demand for water and yet the prices of water are low (because supply is plentiful).  AF15s are awesome, however, they are not rare.

2) Investors (flippers) - I think if these guys were taken out of the equation, the prices would fall.  Unfortunately for those of us who love the books and are not really into the hype of what someone thinks it is worth, the investors have made it a difficult field to play in.  As long as these guys are in the equation, it is likely AF15 will remain at a premium price point.  Should the investors get scared, then that is a different story.

Just my 2 cents (which after taxes, is probably only worth 1 cent)

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31 minutes ago, Hudson said:

I am not sure 10% of Spidey fans can afford an AF15 (or rather would be willing to afford it at these prices).

There are LOTS of fans and there is a high demand for the book, however, I think we are failing to consider two things.

1) Supply - There is a high supply of AF15s out there.  Just go on eBay and you can have your pick of numerous copies any day of the week.  You say a few thousand have been graded, however, who knows how many ungraded copies there are.  I am someone who has rarely ever graded any book regardless of condition (just don't see the point in putting something that was meant to be read in a plastic case where I can not even touch it or smell it).  Yes, demand is high, but so is the demand for water and yet the prices of water are low (because supply is plentiful).  AF15s are awesome, however, they are not rare.

2) Investors (flippers) - I think if these guys were taken out of the equation, the prices would fall.  Unfortunately for those of us who love the books and are not really into the hype of what someone thinks it is worth, the investors have made it a difficult field to play in.  As long as these guys are in the equation, it is likely AF15 will remain at a premium price point.  Should the investors get scared, then that is a different story.

Just my 2 cents (which after taxes, is probably only worth 1 cent)

Same can be said about Mickey Mantles 1952 Topps baseball card it's always available but they always end up selling. I know this is repetitive but it's the only close match of a iconic item with about the same survival rate and demand. To me AF15 is the 1952 Topps Mantle card of comic books. The T206 Honus Wagner is the AC1 and Babe Ruth's rookie is the TEC27 of comics books. The 2 last cards are just as rare if not rarer than AC1 and TEC 27 and the 52 Topps has about the same survival rate and demand as AF15.

Edited by SC22
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22 minutes ago, SC22 said:

Same can be said about Mickey Mantles 1952 Topps baseball card it's always available but they always end up selling. I know this is repetitive but it's the only close match of a iconic item with about the same survival rate and demand. To me AF15 is the 1952 Topps Mantle card of comic books. The T206 Honus Wagner is the AC1 and Babe Ruth's rookie is the TEC27 of comics books. The 2 last cards are just as rare if not rarer than AC1 and TEC 27 and the 52 Topps has about the same survival rate as AF15.

I have to agree to this correlation. For years, the Mickey Mantle 1952 Topps has been undervalue and the entry level was much lower than it was the last five years. The Mickey Mantle in PSA8 are now fetching six figures and could fetch up to one million+ in PSA9+.  Any acceptable T206 Honus Wagner will fetch mid six figures+.  AF15 and Mickey Mantle are the same correlation in terms of supply and demand.

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As I mentioned earlier no I don't believe AF15 CGC 7.5 is worth 242 500$ and no I don't believe the next CGC 8.0 CVA will sell for 261 000$ either but the general value of AF15 is not going to go down dramatically it will go down a bit then stabilize for now until the next slow or medium or fast increase happens.

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16 minutes ago, showcase22gr1959 said:

I have to agree to this correlation. For years, the Mickey Mantle 1952 Topps has been undervalue and the entry level was much lower than it was the last five years. The Mickey Mantle in PSA8 are now fetching six figures and could fetch up to one million+ in PSA9+.  Any acceptable T206 Honus Wagner will fetch mid six figures+.  AF15 and Mickey Mantle are the same correlation in terms of supply and demand.

Thanks I know it's sounds repetitive but there are not tons of things that an compare to AF15. The 1952 Topps card went up a whole lot in the last 2 years in all grades now it's pulling back a bit (and I emphasis a bit it's not by very much maybe 5% to 10% of it's highest sale. In the ends it's still a 190% to 195% increase in value over the 2 years since they went up 200% in lower to mid grades and 250% to 300% in high grades) in PSA 6 and lower and staying the same from PSA 6.5 to PSA 7.5 and anything higher seems to be selling for record prices even up till today. My guess is if a PSA 10 (only 3 exist) came up for sale it would be the most expensive card in the world most likely well over 5$ million dollars (probably closer to 7.5$ million dollar and maybe up to 10$ million dollars depending on who is bidding....one thing I know for sure is the big guns would all be trying to get it).

Edited by SC22
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10 hours ago, lou_fine said:

All I can say is that 10% of millions and millions is a pretty large percentage here.

I believe it's more like a fraction of less than 1% of Spidey fans who would be interested in the actual Spidey comic books themselves, and only a fraction of that small fraction would be interested in slabbed Spideys which they could not even open and read.  hm

I see plenty of kids 5 and under wearing Spidey trademark clothing. Maybe I should try to sell them an AF #15. hm

 

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8 hours ago, showcase22gr1959 said:

I have to agree to this correlation. For years, the Mickey Mantle 1952 Topps has been undervalue and the entry level was much lower than it was the last five years. The Mickey Mantle in PSA8 are now fetching six figures and could fetch up to one million+ in PSA9+.  Any acceptable T206 Honus Wagner will fetch mid six figures+.  AF15 and Mickey Mantle are the same correlation in terms of supply and demand.

A 1952 Mantle in PSA 8.5 sold for $1.135 Million last year.

http://www.beckett.com/news/1952-topps-mickey-mantle-tops-1-million/

 

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21 minutes ago, Ghostzapper said:

A 1952 Mantle in PSA 8.5 sold for $1.135 Million last year.

http://www.beckett.com/news/1952-topps-mickey-mantle-tops-1-million/

 

It's amazing  PSA 8.5 grade fetch double of a PSA 8.0. Thanks for the link.

Edited by showcase22gr1959
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21 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

I see plenty of kids 5 and under wearing Spidey trademark clothing. Maybe I should try to sell them an AF #15. hm

 

Hey, I wore a Spiderman Belt and stuff when I was that young. I still have a picture of me wearing it too. :wink:

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8 hours ago, SC22 said:

Thanks I know it's sounds repetitive but there are not tons of things that an compare to AF15. The 1952 Topps card went up a whole lot in the last 2 years in all grades now it's pulling back a bit (and I emphasis a bit it's not by very much maybe 5% to 10% of it's highest sale. In the ends it's still a 190% to 195% increase in value over the 2 years since they went up 200% in lower to mid grades and 250% to 300% in high grades) in PSA 6 and lower and staying the same from PSA 6.5 to PSA 7.5 and anything higher seems to be selling for record prices even up till today. My guess is if a PSA 10 (only 3 exist) came up for sale it would be the most expensive card in the world most likely well over 5$ million dollars (probably closer to 7.5$ million dollar and maybe up to 10$ million dollars depending on who is bidding....one thing I know for sure is the big guns would all be trying to get it).

I can understand PSA6 and lower staying the same, and the exponential for the higher grade. Of course if the higher grades moves much much higher, lower grade will eventually perform better. On another note,  I made this correlation of Amazing Fantasy 15/Mickey Mantle 1952 Topps and Action Comics 1/T206 Honus Wagner in the old AF15 thread over five years ago. :wink:

Edited by showcase22gr1959
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3 hours ago, VintageComics said:

I see plenty of kids 5 and under wearing Spidey trademark clothing. Maybe I should try to sell them an AF #15. hm

 

Lol. On a serious note: some of these kids will probably want and maybe afford to buy an AF15 in 30 years from now. 

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19 hours ago, zhamlau said:

 

You can make an argument that AF15 is the MOST desirable comic book in the world. Tec 27 and Action 1 are of course more expensive in grade, but they are so prohibitively costly that all but the top few hundred collectors cant even dream about owning them. Not so with AF15. Its just as important a book as either Tec or Action, but while the price has gone up dramatically its STILL in the wheelhouse of most advanced collectors. That more people are going for it because its actually possible for them to own I think makes a case this book is number 1.  Its got the historic pedigree of any other book, but its price while hefty , is still possible for the buying pool. You can get a decent complete copy for 4 figures, where its 6 figures for the other two. Just food for thought.

I agree. That was my second point I made. In terms of affordability and accessibility it is #1. But if one were to remove that pesky financial restrictions, I would hazard a quess it would be 3 or 4th behind action 1, tec 27 and maybe cap1

Edited by G.A.tor
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17 hours ago, SC22 said:

Only a few thousand have been graded by CGC and most of them range from CGC 0.5 to CGC 5.5 after that they become much scarcer. The demand for Spidey is higher than the supply even if there are a lot more out there that have not been graded as of yet. The market can and does absorb them. There are millions upon millions of Spidey fans worldwide I understand not all of them can afford the book but even if you take say 10% of that number that can that is a whole lot of people versus the amount available graded or not.

The error in your assumption is that not even a fraction of a percent desire to own the comic. Sure, millions love superheroes, but millions don't collect their first appearance in a comic (or even their current comics). There has unfortunately been a contraction of readership of new books over the past decades (small stabilizing recently due to social media and movies/tv shows...but that's still cyclical)

yes, several hundred or several thousand graded issues doesn't seem like much , but the market reaches equilibrium regardless. 

 

 

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17 hours ago, lou_fine said:

All I can say is that 10% of millions and millions is a pretty large percentage here.

I believe it's more like a fraction of less than 1% of Spidey fans who would be interested in the actual Spidey comic books themselves, and only a fraction of that small fraction would be interested in slabbed Spideys which they could not even open and read.  hm

You said what I was just responding too lol should have read all posts first 

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17 hours ago, SC22 said:

What we both say is just a a wild guess who really knows. But the book still sells all the time so the demand is there no matter what the percentage is.

But at some price, every book sells all the time. Even books with no perceived demand. That's the market dynamic. 

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3 hours ago, SECollector said:

Lol. On a serious note: some of these kids will probably want and maybe afford to buy an AF15 in 30 years from now. 

The hobby better hope so!

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My economics lesson is that slow steady growth in our hobby is good in the long term....short term exponential growth historically is not good for a hobby. And I love this hobby. Been reading and collecting comics since 1972 and been buying and selling since the 80s. My entire youth and adult life is "invested" in our hobby. I only want it to sustain and be fun for most

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