THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[Spiderturtle]

1 hour ago, SC22 said:

I don't think having 4 CGC 4.0's is a big deal there are what 10 000 or so AF15's that exist so I am pretty sure the market will easily absorb 4 lonely copies. It is a grade range that a lot of people are looking for. I would be more concerned if I was a seller of say a 8.0 and there was 3 other 8.0's in the same auction.

Lower graded books are what most can afford so they will sell easily and should do OK (on almost any given day all year round you can find lower graded AF15's so why should this be any different). It all depends on the amount of marvel chipping some will do better and some will sell for less like in any other auction setting.

hate to say it but it's gonna affect prices negatively

[SC22]

4 minutes ago, Spiderturtle said:

hate to say it but it's gonna affect prices negatively

We shall see. There are many more bidders for 4.0's than people think. Even dealers will get into the bidding to try and stock up.

Edited September 18, 2017 by SC22

[Sweet Lou 14]

It does raise an interesting question for the auction house, what sequence to make those four books close in.  ComicConnect of course has the extended bidding feature which potentially makes the final bidding on those books overlap, but putting that aside there must be some thought into which book should go first to get the most value out of them all.  And there must also be some jockeying among the consignors on this point as well.

[blazingbob]

15 minutes ago, Spiderturtle said:

hate to say it but it's gonna affect prices negatively

Frankly this is a job of the auction house to educate the sellers that putting a few copies up for the same time is just going to cause the better looking copy to sell for more then the "perceived" ugly ducking(s) of the group.  And if I were the owner of the "ugly duckling" I would thank them and look at another alternative.

[SC22]

Just got off the phone with ComiConnect and I was told they are going to auction them off on different dates as to not have 4 in the very same auction (there may be 2 in a single auction but not 4 and maybe not even 2 they did not seem sure yet). We spoke about how it could affect the final results and they agreed it is a bad move to have 4 of them in a single auction. I think they never intended to have 4 in a single auction and they where already working on the dates each one would be auctioned off.

Edited September 18, 2017 by SC22

[lou_fine]

11 hours ago, SC22 said:

I don't think having 4 CGC 4.0's is a big deal there are what 10 000 or so AF15's that exist so I am pretty sure the market will easily absorb 4 lonely copies.

Yes, the market can definitely absorb 4 copies of AF 15, but unfortunately only at declining prices in a true auction format like CC's. 

In virtually all auctions, a good portion of the final realized price is usually in most cases bidded up by only the final 3 and then 2 buyers.  Now, if these last few bidders now have all 4 books available to them instead of just the one, guess what's going to happen to the prices.    Well, probably not that bad, but still enough of a drop to be definitely noticeable. 

 

11 hours ago, SC22 said:

(on almost any given day all year round you can find lower graded AF15's so why should this be any different)

Are these copies available in a true no-reserved auction format or are they generally sitting there with fully protected outrageous BIN prices that nobody would ever click onto? 

[lou_fine]

9 hours ago, SC22 said:

Just got off the phone with ComiConnect and I was told they are going to auction them off on different dates as to not have 4 in the very same auction (there may be 2 in a single auction but not 4 and maybe not even 2 they did not seem sure yet). We spoke about how it could affect the final results and they agreed it is a bad move to have 4 of them in a single auction. I think they never intended to have 4 in a single auction and they where already working on the dates each one would be auctioned off.

Sounds a bit late for me as it would appear like a case of closing the barn doors after the horses have already escaped.  Especially since "most everybody" by now already knows about these 4 copies that are about to or will eventually hit the open marketplace.   

[SC22]

2 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Sounds a bit late for me as it would appear like a case of closing the barn doors after the horses have already escaped.  Especially since "most everybody" by now already knows about these 4 copies that are about to or will eventually hit the open marketplace.   

Not really if they sell them over a period of months.

[SC22]

21 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

Yes, the market can definitely absorb 4 copies of AF 15, but unfortunately only at declining prices in a true auction format like CC's. 

In virtually all auctions, a good portion of the final realized price is usually in most cases bidded up by only the final 3 and then 2 buyers.  Now, if these last few bidders now have all 4 books available to them instead of just the one, guess what's going to happen to the prices.    Well, probably not that bad, but still enough of a drop to be definitely noticeable. 

 

Are these copies available in a true no-reserved auction format or are they generally sitting there with fully protected outrageous BIN prices that nobody would ever click onto? 

There are more bidders in this grade range and the books will be sold over time not all at once so that should help. If they where all high graded books I could see people waiting to see what the later books go for and then maybe bid but not for 4.0's.

We can analyze this non stop but ComicConnect knows this already and they will act accordingly. They want to maximize profits so they will most likely get it right.

Edited September 19, 2017 by SC22

[Glassman10]

21 hours ago, SC22 said:

I don't think having 4 CGC 4.0's is a big deal there are what 10 000 or so AF15's that exist so I am pretty sure the market will easily absorb 4 lonely copies. It is a grade range that a lot of people are looking for. I would be more concerned if I was a seller of say a 8.0 and there was 3 other 8.0's in the same auction.

Lower graded books are what most can afford so they will sell easily and should do OK (on almost any given day all year round you can find lower graded AF15's so why should this be any different). It all depends on the amount of marvel chipping some will do better and some will sell for less like in any other auction setting.

where do you get he number 10,000? I don't think the census reflects that, so what other information might you have. 

[yanksarod22]

 10000 is a crazy number with no basis at all 

[lou_fine]

2 hours ago, Glassman10 said:

where do you get he number 10,000? I don't think the census reflects that, so what other information might you have. 

 

2 hours ago, yanksarod22 said:

 10000 is a crazy number with no basis at all 

Actually, 10,000 for a total population count of existing AF 15's in the world might not be that far off. 

Especially when you considered that there's almost 3,000 slabbed copies from CGC alone so far, which means there should be a few hundred more from the other grading companies out there.  Then you add in the raw copies sitting in the collections of long-time collectors who have absolutely no reason to have them graded to this point in time yet.  Especially when I've seen far more copies of raw AF 15's out there in the real world as compared to slabbed copies (i.e. excluding the ones on the internet and auction websites). 

So, 10,000 total copies might be a shade high as far as we know, but probably not by that much. 

Edited September 19, 2017 by lou_fine

[Chicago Boy]

I'd throw my hat into the ring with 10,000ish  copies as well.  Census plus all the ones Ive seen raw in the wild along with many whom I know that own multiple raw copies my algorithim is census x 5 easy 

Edited September 19, 2017 by Chicago Boy

[SC22]

3 hours ago, Glassman10 said:

where do you get he number 10,000? I don't think the census reflects that, so what other information might you have. 

Some respected members here had said all total including in the wild copies not graded that the estimate was about 10 000.

It is not rare by any means it is simply in very high demand.

Edited September 19, 2017 by SC22

[lou_fine]

On 9/16/2017 at 2:02 PM, comicquant said:

On 9/16/2017 at 10:47 AM, lou_fine said:

  In terms of additional streams of revenue and getting repeat business, I am rather surprised that CGC hasn't introduced the concept of a Best Before or expiry date on their slabbed books yet.   

 

Au contraire mon ami...

"When CGC was first established in 2000, we thoroughly researched and implemented the best practices in archival preservation. We took a conservative approach and suggested that customers may wish to consider reholdering their books after approximately seven to ten years so that the MicroChamber paper could be replaced. "

Unless you're David Blaine you're not going to be able replace the MicroChamber paper without having the book reholdered.

Actually, I was thinking more along the lines of an expiry date on the grade of the book which would be a huge windfall for them. 

Best to keep this to ourselves though before they actually think it is a good idea and decide to implement it.    

[lou_fine]

On 9/18/2017 at 11:24 AM, scooter99 said:

What's the R in the comments stand for?  Restored?  I didn't see universal in the description. 

As for the the 4 4.0's go, unless it is the same seller of all 4 copies, I wouldn't want to compete with this many like-graded examples. 

Well, it looks like we got the answers to both of our questions here:

http://www.comicconnect.com/bookSearch.php?searchType=advanced&listing_type=event&pageSize=25&pageNum=4

1)  The R must have stood for Restored as the 8.5 copy is indeed a Slight/Moderate (C2) Restored with color touch, tear seals, pieces added, and trimming; and

2)  Looks like there is going to only one of the 4.0 copies and its going to be the Hidden Valley Collection copy.

Edited September 21, 2017 by lou_fine

[NoMan]

9 minutes ago, Spiderturtle said:

Former voldy 6.5

 

Where was it in the Voldy holder?

[Jaydogrules]

42 minutes ago, Spiderturtle said:

Former voldy 6.5

 

Very nice.  

I'm still trying to figure out why that isn't a 7.0+.

-J.

[Bomber-Bob]

10 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

Very nice.  

I'm still trying to figure out why that isn't a 7.0+.

-J.

There's a pretty long vertical reading crease along the spine. They don't like that.

[Spiderturtle]

On September 22, 2017 at 5:54 PM, Bomber-Bob said:

There's a pretty long vertical reading crease along the spine. They don't like that.

+1,creases on the spine is big deal for cgc

Edited September 25, 2017 by Spiderturtle