THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[Jaydogrules]

6 hours ago, Jordysnordy said:

Just added to the October 20th CL auction.

That's a mighty tight looking 6.5. 

-J.

[peewee22]

Clean book.

[SC22]

Any guesses what it will sell for?

[Jaydogrules]

Just now, SC22 said:

Any guesses what it will sell for?

$80k-$90k 

-J.

[lou_fine]

3 hours ago, Glassman10 said:

I went back to June on sales as trumpeted here and a 5.0 went for 29K and there was a major eruption of success. I kept watching GPA and there was a 4.0 ( as I recall) that went for about 35K by July. That caught my attention.  I kept watching GP analysis and it sure seemed to be trending up consistently.

That's the problem with relying too much on GPA, as it missed the sale of the CGC 5.0 copy that was auctioned off on CC for $57K back earlier in March of this year. 

That was the key landmark record setting AF 15 sale that was the starting gun which shot the entire AF 15 market into the stratosphere and set the tone for the AF 15 marketplace after that point.   

[peewee22]

2 hours ago, SC22 said:

Any guesses what it will sell for?

Might hit the century mark.

[silentassassin]

I 

Edited October 20, 2017 by silentassassin

[silentassassin]

On 10/17/2017 at 10:23 PM, Glassman10 said:

well, jeez, first I was told that just when school was starting was a terrible time to sell and then I was told that christmas was a terrible time to sell with attention elsewhere and then I was told that Tax time was a terrible time to sell because of taxes and now I'm told it's a terrible time to sell because it's pre holiday.

We listed my AF15 5.0 for a handsome price on Aug 5th. Fifty five days later it was sold.  It wasn't the first of Bob's AF 15' books to go at that time.

At one point I posited that if I had a  piece of art at the flea market and no one knew what it was, I couldn't sell a 30K piece of art  for 200 dollars. I continue to think that was true at the time. The problem was that it was being sold in the wrong venue  

I have almost 20 years of selling experience to back those statements up, Bub!

Edited October 20, 2017 by silentassassin

[SC22]

59 minutes ago, peewee22 said:

Might hit the century mark.

Wonder what mine would sell for with the marvel pre chipping my guess about 10% less that what this book brings.

[Jaydogrules]

1 hour ago, lou_fine said:

That's the problem with relying too much on GPA, as it missed the sale of the CGC 5.0 copy that was auctioned off on CC for $57K back earlier in March of this year. 

That was the key landmark record setting AF 15 sale that was the starting gun which shot the entire AF 15 market into the stratosphere and set the tone for the AF 15 marketplace after that point.   

Again, prices were shooting up way before that one sale in March.

-J.

Edited October 20, 2017 by Jaydogrules

[VintageComics]

46 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

Again, prices were shooting up way before that one sale in March.

Eh, no they weren't. It was a steady climb except for one or two outliers.

But I'm not going to start a back and forth again.

[Jaydogrules]

2 hours ago, VintageComics said:

Eh, no they weren't. It was a steady climb except for one or two outliers.

But I'm not going to start a back and forth again.

Yes they were spiking. Big new GPA highs, seemingly out of the blue, across multiple grades. Particularly in the 5.0-6.5 grades going back as early as Jan 2016, and of course the blockbuster sale of the 9.4 for $454k in Feb. 2017 that really kicked things into high gear. I cited at least a dozen sales indicating a spike much sooner than that sale in March 2017.  As married as you seem to be to that fallacy, it is simply wrong and easily disproved by even a casual perusal of GPA.  Feel free to scroll back for a full refresher.  

-J.

Edited October 20, 2017 by Jaydogrules

[G.A.tor]

7 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

Yes they were spiking. Big new GPA highs, seemingly out of the blue, across multiple grades. Particularly in the 5.0-6.5 grades going back as early as Jan 2016, and of course the blockbuster sale of the 9.4 for $454k in Feb. 2017 that really kicked things into high gear. I cited at least a dozen sales indicating a spike much sooner than that sale in March 2017.  As married as you seem to be to that fallacy, it is simply wrong and easily disproved by even a casual perusal of GPA.  Feel free to scroll back for a full refresher.  

-J.

The sale that got folks really “talking” or really shocked /surprised was the 57k cgc 5.0. Clearly if you presented a dozen data points the market was already on an outlier type /exponential increase (I don’t know, I didn’t read at the time nor would I try to scroll back  ) then that would support the analytical aspect of the discussion, but imo, the 5.0 sale was the emotional/intangible trigger ...that’s the sale most I’ve seen or talked to attribute...just a matter of perception...comic buying/selling still interjects emotion and that can’t always be analytically attributed

[Jaydogrules]

40 minutes ago, G.A.tor said:

The sale that got folks really “talking” or really shocked /surprised was the 57k cgc 5.0. Clearly if you presented a dozen data points the market was already on an outlier type /exponential increase (I don’t know, I didn’t read at the time nor would I try to scroll back  ) then that would support the analytical aspect of the discussion, but imo, the 5.0 sale was the emotional/intangible trigger ...that’s the sale most I’ve seen or talked to attribute...just a matter of perception...comic buying/selling still interjects emotion and that can’t always be analytically attributed

Yes, you are right, people talked a lot about that 5.0 sale.

But prior to that they buzzed in January, 2016 when an earlier 5.0, seemingly out of the blue, sold for $26.5k, a full 25% increase over a prior copy that sold just five months earlier.  At the time, that might have been perceived as an outlier.  In hindsight now, we see things clearly did not stop there....

In February, 2016, that huge, realized, publicly reported sale of the 9.4 happened.  Yes, I understand that Metro had an open general offer out for 9.4's and other high grades at the time.  However.... there is a BIG difference between a theoretical, speculative price being offered for a book, and an actual sale.

Between June and November 2016, the boards were buzzing again about sales of three 6.5's (4 if you count the one that was on Comiclink) that all sold for around $50k in a row, boom-boom-boom-, which was a 40% increase over the last publicly recorded sales at the time.

The boards were buzzing again in February 2017 when a 6.0 broke $42k.

But if you ask me, the sale that really put things over the top, even more so than the 9.4 sale, and was more buzzy than any of these other sales results, was the sale of Ghosttown's 9.2 copy on Comiclink for $460k, in January, 2017.  That was $6k higher than the 9.4 that sold less than one year earlier!  More than any other sale, the sale of THAT copy, for THAT price really seemed to cycle things to the next level and start bringing out the big numbers, of which the subsequent Comicconnect auction was simply the result of a combination of good timing and having two copies that both presented very well for the grade, and was simply a continuation/confirmation of the spike that had already been occurring in sales prices for quite some time previously. 

-J.

Edited October 20, 2017 by Jaydogrules

[G.A.tor]

21 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

Yes, you are right, people talked a lot about that 5.0 sale.

But prior to that they buzzed in January, 2016 when an earlier 5.0, seemingly out of the blue, sold for $26.5k, a full 25% increase over a prior copy that sold just five months earlier.  At the time, that might have been perceived as an outlier.  In hindsight now, we see things clearly did not stop there....

In February, 2016, that huge, realized, publicly reported sale of the 9.4 happened.  Yes, I understand that Metro had an open general offer out for 9.4's and other high grades at the time.  However.... there is a BIG difference between a theoretical, speculative price being offered for a book, and an actual sale.

Between June and November 2016, the boards were buzzing again about sales of three 6.5's (4 if you count the one that was on Comiclink) that all sold for around $50k in a row, boom-boom-boom-, which was a 40% increase over the last publicly recorded sales at the time.

The boards were buzzing again in February 2017 when a 6.0 broke $42k.

But if you ask me, the sale that really put things over the top, even more so than the 9.4 sale, and was more buzzy than any of these other sales results, was the sale of Ghosttown's 9.2 copy on Comiclink for $460k, in January, 2017.  That was $6k higher than the 9.4 that sold less than one year earlier!  More than any other sale, the sale of THAT copy, for THAT price really seemed to cycle things to the next level and start bringing out the big numbers, of which the subsequent Comicconnect auction was simply the result of a combination of good timing and having two copies that both presented very well for the grade, and was simply a continuation/confirmation of the spike that had already been occurring in sales prices for quite some time previously. 

-J.

The difference is I don’t recall any of that “buzz” as apparently everyone that points to the 5.0/57k perceived as well. 25% up is one thing. 100% up, that’s a difference maker to folks’ opinion and perception

another thing to consider is that public sales data points are but one piece of the puzzle...try to accurately extrapolate the entire puzzle image from a single piece...one will be wrong many more times than they are right, even though they have that one very valid and supportive piece. 

Analytical data is a Black and white piece of the puzzle. The comic market is a mosaic of color as a whole.  The data piece rarely tells the entire colorful picture (though it is as important of a piece as any)

[ComicConnoisseur]

AF#15,Incredible Hulk #181 and NM #98 are the three best bets going forward long-term not only in the comic book hobby,but all the collectibles field. The prices we see now will look like a bargain in 5-10 years,and that's for all grades. Better than putting your money in a savings account where the money will devalue because of inflation. IMHO.

 

 

Edited October 20, 2017 by ComicConnoisseur

[Jaydogrules]

7 minutes ago, G.A.tor said:

The difference is I don’t recall any of that “buzz” as apparently everyone that points to the 5.0/57k perceived as well. 25% up is one thing. 100% up, that’s a difference maker to folks’ opinion and perception

another thing to consider is that public sales data points are but one piece of the puzzle...try to accurately extrapolate the entire puzzle image from a single piece...one will be wrong many more times than they are right, even though they have that one very valid and supportive piece. 

Analytical data is a Black and white piece of the puzzle. The comic market is a mosaic of color as a whole.  The data piece rarely tells the entire colorful picture (though it is as important of a piece as any)

Right, but there is also a bit of some clever attempted revisionist history going on here now.

When that 5.0 sold on Comicconnect for $57k, there were pages and pages and pages of one or two people claiming that the reason that book sold for that was because it was so obviously and significantly upgradeable and that "must" be the explanation of the price.  If anything, it was THAT sale that was presented as an "outlier".

That is when I came in and frankly scoffed at that notion  and originally pointed out the prior sales and build up that I just pointed out again (as well as a few others) that had already indicated a spike.  If you want to say that things "came to a head" with that sale, that's fine, but it certainly didn't "start" anything, things were well underway loooong before that sale, as the many comps I have cited indicated.

To now come in and purport that "that" one sale, was in fact "the beginning of it all", not only goes against the very point that you just made in your post above, it is also utterly and hopelessly disingenuous, and wrong.

-J.

[Sweet Lou 14]

6 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

AF#15,Incredible Hulk #181 and NM #98 are the three best bets going forward long-term not only in the comic book hobby,but all the collectibles field. The prices we see now will look like a bargain in 5-10 years,and that's for all grades. Better than putting your money in a savings account where the money will devalue because of inflation. IMHO.

 

 

Interesting that you're putting NM #98 in that category.  I don't see it -- just way too much supply and a character that won't even be remembered outside comic book fandom in 10 years.

[G.A.tor]

18 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

Right, but there is also a bit of some clever attempted revisionist history going on here now.

When that 5.0 sold on Comicconnect for $57k, there were pages and pages and pages of one or two people claiming that the reason that book sold for that was because it was so obviously and significantly upgradeable and that "must" be the explanation of the price.  If anything, it was THAT sale that was presented as an "outlier".

That is when I came in and frankly scoffed at that notion  and originally pointed out the prior sales and build up that I just pointed out again (as well as a few others) that had already indicated a spike.  If you want to say that things "came to a head" with that sale, that's fine, but it certainly didn't "start" anything, things were well underway loooong before that sale, as the many comps I have cited indicated.

To now come in and purport that "that" one sale, was in fact "the beginning of it all", not only goes against the very point that you just made in your post above, it is also utterly and hopelessly disingenuous, and wrong.

-J.

I didn’t say it was the beginning of it all, quite the opposite. But many/most? folks do perceive it as the “beginning” , (I just saw where lou_fine has this same opinion) and that’s the “color” vs “black and white”.  

[ComicConnoisseur]

17 minutes ago, Sweet Lou 14 said:

Interesting that you're putting NM #98 in that category.  I don't see it -- just way too much supply and a character that won't even be remembered outside comic book fandom in 10 years.

My motto is don't worry about supply,but worry about demand. Deadpool will be much more a household name a decade from now, as there will be at least a trilogy of Deadpool films which will keep the NM#98 demand up. NM#98 will be a steady winner over the next decade like Hulk #181 and AF#15.