THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[Aman619]

Here's what I'm trying to say, down and dirty.  When the best books in the hobby sell for hundreds of 1000s , we marvel at how far we have come as a hobby, but we EXPECT IT. 

But when a (let's face it) lousy 5.0 double in price overnight?  That sis hocking and attention worthy. There HAS to be some reason why because a 5.0 isn't worth 50 grand! And then when it happens again, a frenzy starts where lots of people need to get a copy now! 

[lou_fine]

3 hours ago, Aman619 said:

I think what's being glossed over here as to what spiked the AF 15 market, is how different the 9.2-9.4 market is from the 5.0 market.  When 9.2s and 9.4 sell for ever increasing numbers, for most people it's just like reading about how the rich people live. Going from 200k to 400k is interesting, exciting maybe, but to most of us like reading about which yachts millionaires are buying. plus, most of us expect the high grade best examples of the key books to keep rising and rising into crazier numbers because they ARE the best copies of the best books.

But it's when a low middle grade copy that has usually been left in the dust by the highs falluting sales at the top end jumps up one hundred per cent higher with one book.... people sit up and take notice. Usually spiking HG copies have far less effect on five point os   

So whether the HG copies catulaly caused the five point o copy to double in price or not, it was thta five point o sale that fueled other mid grade copies to suddenly heat up too. 

In other words, we expect HG copies to double overnight... not average copies that had only been moving up slowly,

+1

Looks like both you and I are thinking the same way: 

On 10/20/2017 at 9:24 PM, lou_fine said:

I also believe that the 9.2 and 9.4 AF 15 sales had less of an impact because that is a completely different sandbox where the majority of the AF 15 collectors do not play in.  The CGC 5.0 $57K sale had a much bigger impact with respect to the CGC 2.5 to CGC 7.5 sandbox because this is where the overwhelming majority of the AF 15 collectors play in. 

But it's better and probably safer for everybody here if we just keep this between the two of us because if Jay ever finds out, we'll never hear the end of it and this could go on ad nauseam for another hundred pages.     

[namisgr]

People should know when to give others a turn.  

[drbanner]

6 hours ago, Aman619 said:

Here's what I'm trying to say, down and dirty.  When the best books in the hobby sell for hundreds of 1000s , we marvel at how far we have come as a hobby, but we EXPECT IT. 

But when a (let's face it) lousy 5.0 double in price overnight?  That sis hocking and attention worthy. There HAS to be some reason why because a 5.0 isn't worth 50 grand! And then when it happens again, a frenzy starts where lots of people need to get a copy now! 

Yep, HG copies like that sell far and few between. It was the ramp up in low-mid grade prices this year that caused folks to take notice because those books are fairly common, especially right now given the prices spikes from earlier this year.  My earlier post containing this image is kaput due to photobucket's greed, but here's what the comparison between AF 15 price action (on the left) and Hulk 1 price action (on the right) was as of the beginning of June. You can see when the AF15 low-mid grade population took off, and what happened to Hulk 1 copies in the years after it happened to that book.

 

[alexgross.com]

2 hours ago, drbanner said:

Yep, HG copies like that sell far and few between. It was the ramp up in low-mid grade prices this year that caused folks to take notice because those books are fairly common, especially right now given the prices spikes from earlier this year.  My earlier post containing this image is kaput due to photobucket's greed, but here's what the comparison between AF 15 price action (on the left) and Hulk 1 price action (on the right) was as of the beginning of June. You can see when the AF15 low-mid grade population took off, and what happened to Hulk 1 copies in the years after it happened to that book.

 

that's some real food for thought, esp considering that GPA doesn't even have close to accurate info on many AF15 sales prices like CL. i'm not saying AF15 pricing won't plateau for awhile, but the real question is, is spiderman comparable to hulk as a pop culture figure? my cousin in law in japan, when i asked who is the most famous superhero there, said spiderman. not batman. demand is probably much higher for him and perhaps always likely to be. 

[Jaydogrules]

13 hours ago, Aman619 said:

Here's what I'm trying to say, down and dirty.  When the best books in the hobby sell for hundreds of 1000s , we marvel at how far we have come as a hobby, but we EXPECT IT. 

But when a (let's face it) lousy 5.0 double in price overnight?  That sis hocking and attention worthy. There HAS to be some reason why because a 5.0 isn't worth 50 grand! And then when it happens again, a frenzy starts where lots of people need to get a copy now! 

This is still factually incorrect and is simply continuing the revisionist history that I keep referring to. 

First, the 5.0 didn't "double" over night, at least not according to many of the self-annoited comic book gurus on here.  

According to them, at the time at least, that book sold for what it did because it was "clearly upgradeble" and that simply must have been what was on the buyer's mind when he paid that price- to CPR it.  When people pointed out that the grade would have to go up past a 5.5, past a 6.0, up to at least a 6.5 for that to pay off (at the prices at that time), they were either poo-pooh'd, condescended to, or ignored.  Now those same people who argued so vociferously against it even being a valid comp want to point to that one random sale as something grandiose and hobby changing?   Sorry, I think not.  

And that sale did not happen in a vacuum.  I'm not sure why so many of those same self-annoited comic gurus are now pretending that it did. Very little in this world or in this hobby happens in a vacuum, and no, nobody woke up that day and decided "you know what, today's the day I'm going to pay double GPA for a comic book".  To wit, the sale of the 9.0 in that same auction was also double the price of the prior sale for that grade, which itself was triggered by the highly publicized sale of Ghosttown's 9.2.  Indeed, both Josh Nathanson and the author of the bleeding cool article I linked accurately predicted the ultimate scramble for lower grade copies, as what happened with Hulk 1 in 2014-2015 after its big 9.2 sale and that particular comic connect auction was simply the beneficiary of good timing, and nothing more. 

As I have said repeatedly, and will continue to say, there were multiple sales of 6.5's going back to June 2016 that themselves were more than 60% higher than previous sales for that grade already. Those sales were just as widely discussed and parsed on these boards as well. Do we all suddenly have amnesia ? 

Those sales were precipitated by the sale of the 9.4 in January 2016 before that.   There has been a "frenzy" for this book in all grades this year, from the top down.  The super strong sale of Ghosttown's 9.2 in Jan, 2017 pulled up prices in all grades from 8.5 down.  That sale even pulled up the price of the same 9.4 that sold in January 2016 when it was flipped earlier this year for over $700k.   

Those saying, "oh well those expensive books are for millionaires and they happen in a bubble and don't have any effect on other copies" is patently incorrect. Very little in this hobby happens in a vacuum.   It's those sales that make the headlines.  It's those sales that make hay, that get reported on, get people's attention.  No, these copies don't always come up for sale and yes they are very cost prohibitive for most ordinary folk....

Which is precisely why we saw (and are seeing) the "freny" for the lower grade copies that are more within reach.  

-J.

Edited October 22, 2017 by Jaydogrules

[Glassman10]

In the case of the AF15 grades of all types,one might consider the notion of panic buying. Who wants a 5.0 chock full of chips when there are copies the same grade without them?  What if the market on 5.0's with no chipping suddenly dried up? The upper end books simply don't have chipping.  If the grading was actually consistent, and I don't happen to think it is, these visual and physical variants should produce rather different grades.  I can't really speak to other comics since the AF15 was the only five figure book I ever owned.  GPA is really awfully far behind gauging the real world sales of the AF15. It catches some of the action but for the most part, it's auctions and auctions seem to me to be selling copies at below market reality.  That's good for the flippers in the world, just not so much for the vendors of the book who really don't flip stuff much. I was way better off with Bob than going to an auction site.  

And obviously, sufficient people DO THINK a 5.0 is worth Fifty Grand. The evidence is in front of your nose.

Edited October 22, 2017 by Glassman10

[blazingbob]

1 hour ago, Jaydogrules said:

This is still factually incorrect and is simply continuing the revisionist history that I keep referring to. 

First, the 5.0 didn't "double" over night, at least not according to many of the self-annoited comic book gurus on here.  

According to them, at the time at least, that book sold for what it did because it was "clearly upgradeble" and that simply must have been what was on the buyer's mind when he paid that price- to CPR it.  When people pointed out that the grade would have to go up past a 5.5, past a 6.0, up to at least a 6.5 for that to pay off (at the prices at that time), they were either poo-pooh'd, condescended to, or ignored.  Now those same people who argued so vociferously against it even being a valid comp want to point to that one random sale as something grandiose and hobby changing?   Sorry, I think not.  

And that sale did not happen in a vacuum.  I'm not sure why so many of those same self-annoited comic gurus are now pretending that it did. Very little in this world or un tjis hobby happens in a vacuum, and no, nobody woke up that day and decided "you know what, today's the day I'm going to pay double GPA for a comic book".  To wit, the sale of the 9.0 in that same auction was also double the price of the prior sale for that grade, which itself was triggered by the highly publicized sale of Ghosttown's 9.2.  Indeed, both Josh Nathanson and the author of the bleeding cool article I linked accurately predicted the ultimate scramble for lower grade copies, as what happened with Hulk 1 in 2014-2015 after its big 9.2 sale and that particular comic connect auction was simply the beneficiary of good timing, and nothing more. 

As I have said repeatedly, and will continue to say, there were multiple sales of 6.5's going back to June 2016 that themselves were more than 60% higher than previous sales for that grade already. Those sales were just as widely discussed and parsed on these boards as well. Do we all suddenly have amnesia ? 

Those sales were precipitated by the sale of the 9.4 in January 2016 before that.   There has been a "frenzy" for this book in all grades this year, from the top down.  The super strong sale of Ghosttown's 9.2 in Jan, 2017 pulled up prices in all grades from 8.5 down.  That sale even pulled up the price of the same 9.4 that sold in January 2016 when it was flipped earlier this year for over $700k.   

Those saying, "oh well those expensive books are for millionaires and they happen in a bubble and don't have any effect on other copies" is patently incorrect. Very little in this hobby happens in a vacuum.   It's those sales that make the headlines.  It's those sales that make hey, that get reported on, get people's attention.  No, these copies don't always come up for sale and yes they are very cost prohibitive for most ordinary folk....

Which is precisely why we saw (and are seeing) the "freny" for the lower grade copies that are more within reach.  

-J.

Didn't even last a page.  But mom they started it.  

[lou_fine]

 

On 10/21/2017 at 7:02 AM, Glassman10 said:

What interests me is how the auction items do in light of how well the dealer sales have been going. It puts a lot of pressure on the auction method as an excellent way to consistently leave money on the table. 

 

1 hour ago, Glassman10 said:

It catches some of the action but for the most part, it's auctions and auctions seem to me to be selling copies at below market reality.

Glasses;

I find it rather strange that you say the auction method of selling is a consistent way of leaving money on the table and produces sales results that are below market reality.

Although this is probably the case with many of the lower profile books that might get missed by the collecting public as they get lost in the hundreds of other more high profile listings, I definitely don't see this with a book such as AF 15.  In fact, virtually all of these record setting sales that are taking the AF 15's to the next pricing levels and the ones that we are constantly talking about here are actually taking place on the auction sites, with the dealer listing prices following behind after that. 

Hence, with the AF 15's, I find that it's really the auction sites and in particular, CC and CL, that are the real trendsetters here and continuing to move the market up on this particular book here. 

However, I will most definitely agree with you that No Reserve auctions definitely do present risk to the consignor since it's often a crapshoot and really depends if the right set of eyes are looking at your book, especially if it's a lower profile book that could get lost in a big auction. 

Edited October 22, 2017 by lou_fine

[blazingbob]

5 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

 

 

Glasses;

I find it rather strange that you say the auction method of selling is a consistent way of leaving money on the table and produces sales results that are below market reality.

Although this is probably the case with many of the lower profile books that might get missed by the collecting public as they get lost in the hundreds of other more high profile listings, I definitely don't see this with a book such as AF 15.  In fact, virtually all of these record setting sales that are taking the AF 15's to the next pricing levels and the ones that we are constantly talking about here are actually taking place on the auction sites, with the dealer listing prices following behind after that. 

Hence, with the AF 15's, I find that it's really the auction sites and in particular, CC and CL, that are the real trendsetters here and continuing to move the market up on this particular book here. 

Yup,  those guys are awesome.  I should sell my books there.  Quite the trendsetters.  

 

Edited October 22, 2017 by blazingbob

[lou_fine]

9 minutes ago, blazingbob said:

Yup,  those guys are awesome.  I should sell my books there.  Quite the trendsetters.  

 

You probably missed the last part that I had edited in:

14 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

However, I will most definitely agree with you that No Reserve auctions definitely do present risk to the consignor since it's often a crapshoot and really depends if the right set of eyes are looking at your book, especially if it's a lower profile book that could get lost in a big auction. 

Definitely not in the case of dealers such as yourself, since your sales model is completely different and based upon setting a price and waiting for potential buyers to come up and meet it.

Although we always focus on the grand slam home runs produced by the auction sites, the majority of the results are probably more like singles and doubles, and no doubt more like a strikeout if it was my turn at the bat knowing my luck.   Going to the dealer sites to sell allows a potential seller to avoid getting only a single or even a strikeout with their book, but the possibility of a grand slam home run is also most likely not there. 

Edited October 22, 2017 by lou_fine

[yanksarod22]

https://www.comicconnect.com/bookDetail.php?id=749056

 

heres another af 15 5.5 ow/w might be one of the nicer ones I’ve seen.....no chipping beautiful

[Glassman10]

well, I was referring to Bob who set the price of my book, sold it in 55 days. I no longer list that price here but it is in Bob's notable sales on his website. The last 5.0 to get listed on GPA I presume from auction ( but I don't know that) was last Dec at 29.5K They did then have a listing for a 4.0 in June for $35K. I don't know the genesis of that sale since I no longer subscribe to GPA and they don't list it anyways. What I have seen at auction are books going for substantially below the prices Bob seems to have achieved.  I also note a bit f dry humor in Bob's last post. 

I wouldn't view him as the outlier. I view him as the true market value setter.  If he knows where to get those sales I think it is indeed leaving money on the table to do otherwise. Believe me I'd rather get the price Bob asks than the price any of the auction houses have shown on a 5.0. Unless of course you're affiliated with an auction house.  I suppose I'd fight off the labeling as well. 

[Glassman10]

On 10/21/2017 at 12:53 AM, lou_fine said:

 

Actually, my sister brought some of the Visa stock when it first came out as a IPO and I also brought a bit not too soon after.  So, you are definitely right if we are looking back to 5 years ago.  Not sure if it's such a good buy at these prices now though,

Well, Jeez, it's only up 20% since March and Mastercard is up 25% in the same time frame, so I see your point. That's of course after respective 10/1 split and a 4/1 split last year. 

[delekkerste]

5 minutes ago, Glassman10 said:

Well, Jeez, it's only up 20% since March and Mastercard is up 25% in the same time frame, so I see your point. That's of course after respective 10/1 split and a 4/1 split last year. 

MASTERCARD = OVERVALUED

AF #15 = OVERVALUED

[blazingbob]

So are Ferrari's but hey its nice to see you again.

How was Le Man's 2017?

This is what pops into my head everytime I see a Gene post.  I am honored every time I see him at a show.  

And below is what Gene inspires me to

Edited October 22, 2017 by blazingbob

[Glassman10]

6 minutes ago, delekkerste said:

MASTERCARD = OVERVALUED

AF #15 = OVERVALUED

Oh absolutely. It's why Morgan Stanley raised their target price for it ten days ago by about 20 bucks a share and it has an overweight rating. .

I further note the 5.5 AF15 just listed is set currently at 90K.

Now Richie Rich Comics... there's value there. 

[blazingbob]

6 minutes ago, Glassman10 said:

Oh absolutely. It's why Morgan Stanley raised their target price for it ten days ago by about 20 bucks a share and it has an overweight rating. .

I further note the 5.5 AF15 just listed is set currently at 90K.

Now Richie Rich Comics... there's value there. 

Richie Rich #1 is actually a tough book in high grade.  

[Glassman10]

3 minutes ago, blazingbob said:

Richie Rich #1 is actually a tough book in high grade.  

It's why I went to financial stocks. I can't read the market on comics at all. 

[blazingbob]

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