THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[G.A.tor]

53 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

Yes, when the price surge that started last year in the higher grades started trickling down to the lower/mid grades  (the bulk of the grades of the copies typically offered on ebay), eBay sellers adjusted their prices accordingly.  That CC auction didn't start or trigger anything, those results were just a continuation of strong results that started over a year ago.

-J.

 

Continuation, I agree. But it absolutely triggered them adjusting their prices from the 30s to the 50s (many state so right in their auction descriptions and titles). 

Before those  outlier results from cc, the books were priced off the previous outlier sale

 

here is but one definitive example. 

http://www.ebay.com/itm/AMAZING-FANTASY-15-CGC-5-0-WHITE-RARE-A-5-0-cr-ow-JUST-SOLD-for-57-000-/352027745155?hash=item51f67d1b83:g:BjEAAOSwhQhY7Crq

 

this was $37,995 before the 5.0 sold at cc. Within minutes of the cc result the book was relisted with new price. 100% "triggered" by the cc result 

 

Heres a 4.5 example

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Amazing-Fantasy-15-CGC-4-5-1962-Origin-1st-Spider-Man-Movie-D4-121-cm-/282403804854?hash=item41c09416b6:g:c1UAAOxyaTxTVL48

price raised 5 figures within a day of the cc result ...triggered I'd say

Edited April 19, 2017 by G.A.tor

[Jaydogrules]

4 minutes ago, G.A.tor said:

Continuation, I agree. But it absolutely triggered them adjusting their prices from the 30s to the 50s (many state so right in their auction descriptions and titles). 

Before those  outlier results from cc, the books were priced off the previous outlier sale

True.  But prior to that there was a guy pricing a 6.5 for $65k after the CC sales for  $50k plus.  And I'm sure if there was a guy selling a 9.2 copy on eBay he would have moved his price to something like  $650k after Ghostown's sale.  My only point is that we saw all those adjustments on eBay prices after the CC auction because the grades of those books in the CC auction are also the grades of the vast majority of copies that are usually on eBay  (low/mid grade).  

-J.

[G.A.tor]

6 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

True.  But prior to that there was a guy pricing a 6.5 for $65k after the CC sales for  $50k plus.  And I'm sure if there was a guy selling a 9.2 copy on eBay he would have moved his price to something like  $650k after Ghostown's sale.  My only point is that we saw all those adjustments on eBay prices after the CC auction because the grades of those books in the CC auction are also the grades of the vast majority of copies that are usually on eBay  (low/mid grade).  

-J.

Don't think anyone is arguing against that. Market (especially eBay sellers) pretty much always move their pricing after public markets sell at record price. 

They don't always move pricing down after less than stellar results , but cest la vie 

my only point was the cc results absolutely triggered some market repricing (again) and I believe you stated that those results didn't, when in fact they specifically did (all part of the larger tide movement, of course)

without those cc results, the market wouldn't have moved up again so fast as they (those sellers) typically need a public benchmark to "validate" increased asking. Very few of them can move the market themselves. 

Edited April 19, 2017 by G.A.tor

[Jaydogrules]

11 minutes ago, G.A.tor said:

Don't think anyone is arguing against that. Market (especially eBay sellers) pretty much always move their pricing after public markets sell at record price. 

They don't always move pricing down after less than stellar results , but cest la vie 

my only point was the cc results absolutely triggered some market repricing (again) and I believe you stated that those results didn't, when in fact they specifically did (all part of the larger tide movement, of course)

without those cc results, the market wouldn't have moved up again so fast as they (those sellers) typically need a public benchmark to "validate" increased asking. Very few of them can move the market themselves. 

I don't think we are saying different things.  My dispute was with Vintangecomics declaring that the CC sales triggered this price surge, when in reality it started over a year ago in the uber high grades and simply tricked down to the mid grades in that CC auction, and is now starting to reach the lower grades and less nicely presenting copies in mid grades.  If anything I would say that $155k sale of an 8.5 influenced those sales on CC which then influenced eBay prices.   It's pretty easy to track the progression.  

-J.

Edited April 19, 2017 by Jaydogrules

[namisgr]

14 minutes ago, G.A.tor said:

Don't think anyone is arguing against that. Market (especially eBay sellers) pretty much always move their pricing after public markets sell at record price. 

They don't always move pricing down after less than stellar results , but cest la vie 

my only point was the cc results absolutely triggered some market repricing (again) and I believe you stated that those results didn't, when in fact they specifically did (all part of the larger tide movement, of course)

without those cc results, the market wouldn't have moved up again so fast as they (those sellers) typically need a public benchmark to "validate" increased asking. Very few of them can move the market themselves. 

That's precisely what happened with the market for high grade Strange Tales #110, aided and abetted by a record price realized for a copy thought to have upgrade potential.

 

A 9.0 copy sold on ComicConnect in 2014 for $23,500, nearly 4 times the previous GPA-record high.  I've been told by two dealers they thought the grade had not reached its full potential.  Since that one sale, all copies sold subsequently have easily topped the prior GPA record high of $6,200.  Nevertheless, the $23,500 remains the record high price to this day, with the most recent sale being at a cooler $15,500.

 

It's a plain and simple example of how a record sale driven by upgrade potential drove up subsequent prices.  And it held true for copies in all lower grades as well.  Interestingly, prices later cooled, although they never returned as low as from before the one sale that re-set the entire market.

Edited April 19, 2017 by namisgr

[greggy]

15 hours ago, Iceman399 said:

Apparently the new boards don't track name changes

Yes, it does.

Just check the poster's profile and click the name changes button and it'll show the change.

You're welcome.

xoxo

greggy

[G.A.tor]

9 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

I don't think we are saying different things.  My dispute was with Vintangecomics declaring that the CC sales triggered this price surge, when in reality it started over a year ago in the uber high grades and simply tricked down to the mid grades in that CC auction, and is now starting to reach the lower grades and less nicely presenting copies in mid grades.  

-J.

The cc results triggered the "next" surge. In reality the book has been moving up for the past 6 years , since the slight 2011 pull back. 

The recent exponential growth likely started with those hg sales you mentioned 

Edited April 19, 2017 by G.A.tor

[Jaydogrules]

7 minutes ago, G.A.tor said:

The cc results triggered the "next" surge. In reality the book has been moving up for the past 6 years , since the slight 2011 pull back. 

See my edited post above.  I would argue that the 8.5 sale on Heritage in February actually triggered the CC sales.   There's a pretty straight line from the two big sales last year to the prices that we are seeing now across most of the grade spectrum.  The CC results were nothing more or less than a continuation of data points that we were already witnessing (that started in the higher grades).

-J.

Edited April 19, 2017 by Jaydogrules

[G.A.tor]

I'm a little contrary to public perceptions...I don't adhere to the rising tide theory fully (it no doubt has some affects to some, but doesn't affect all)

to me, an 8.5 buyer and a 5.0 buyer are two different classes of buyers. Very little of any crossover affect. That said, clearly there is a cause and effect relationship, but I'm not so sure of the extent. Might just be me 

[VintageComics]

55 minutes ago, G.A.tor said:

The cc results triggered the "next" surge.

There is no question to this.

Nobody is saying that AF #15 hasn't been getting more expensive.

Those big sales last year would have trickled down to the lower grades much quicker if that was the case.

It's just that this latest surge was triggered by 3 copies that set record prices in CC.

The fact that before and after eBay prices 'blew up' and that sellers changed listings to note the CC sale is the evidence.

[Iceman399]

1 hour ago, greggy said:

Yes, it does.

Just check the poster's profile and click the name changes button and it'll show the change.

You're welcome.

xoxo

greggy

 

You sir can suck it.  We've already covered that basis a few pages back get with it.  However Arch/Mods no longer note it like they used to  which means one has to think that they have changed their name and then investigate it rather than a "new" poster entering the discussion.

[Spiderturtle]

I'm surprised that more people don't hoard af15 on these boards.  It's good to diversify with different sa keys but hoarding af15's since i've joined these boards since 2009 would probably have outpaced any other different collecting goals(money wise)

[Sam I am]

7 minutes ago, Spiderturtle said:

I'm surprised that more people don't hoard af15 on these boards.  It's good to diversify with different sa keys but hoarding af15's since i've joined these boards since 2009 would probably have outpaced any other different collecting goals(money wise)

Unless you were a huge Groot fan.

[Dark Knight]

15 minutes ago, Spiderturtle said:

I'm surprised that more people don't hoard af15 on these boards.  It's good to diversify with different sa keys but hoarding af15's since i've joined these boards since 2009 would probably have outpaced any other different collecting goals(money wise)

Trying..  But at these price levels, it is difficult to hoard copies. And yes, I say that every year too   Whether this new surge in price is an anomaly or the actual new benchmark price, I think this book will certainly reach those levels anyways in the near future.

[lou_fine]

4 hours ago, VintageComics said:

Nor was the 8.5 sale @ $150K a big surprise. AF #15 was already a $125K book in 8.5 more than 4 years ago. I know because I tried to buy one at that time.

Getting absent-minded here again. 

What was your rationale then for not bothering to bid or to bid higher on the exact same 8.5 graded copy that sold at HA for only $77K less than a year ago?  Especially since the buyer simply turned around and flipped it a few short months later for $155K. 

[VintageComics]

Like most people I don't have 6 figures lying around.

But if I was prepared at the time I would have.

I did think the book was undergraded as it was being auctioned off.

But none of this is really germane to the discussion at hand.

[lou_fine]

2 minutes ago, VintageComics said:

Like most people I don't have 6 figures lying around.

But if I was prepared at the time I would have.

Does HA have a 6-month deferred payment plan option similar to what CC has? 

If so, you probably could have turn around and flipped it out yourself for a safe and reasonable profit.

[VintageComics]

1 minute ago, lou_fine said:

Does HA have a 6-month deferred payment plan option similar to what CC has? 

If so, you probably could have turn around and flipped it out yourself for a safe and reasonable profit.

Maybe. I also don't watch a lot of auctions. I'm on the road a lot and so miss many of them.

[lou_fine]

5 hours ago, entalmighty1 said:

5 hours ago, Jordysnordy said:

ComicLink doesn't report to GPA - which is a shame since they sell a ton of books. (anyone know why they don't report). If all the big auctions houses would report their sales to GPA it would potentially help us all keep better track of everything and perhaps help for better analysis of the data (of course we won't know about private sales)

Owner of CLink wanted to report selectively, not completely.  Basically wanted to share a few record breaking transactions instead of everything.  Incomplete data is more dangerous than no data, in my opinion.

Personally, I feel that Josh and CL are doing a real disservice to the collecting community by not having their auction results included as part of the GPA database.  Especially considering that they are one of the Big 3 comic book auction houses out there.

And certainly a discredit to his company for wanting to select only certain auction results to be included in the GPA database as this can easily present a false and incorrect impression of the real marketplace. 

Certainly wish he would reconsider his decision to include CL's auction results as part of the GPA database, but wouldn't hold my breath waiting after all these years. 

[ProcessedMeatMan]

2 hours ago, VintageComics said:

There is no question to this.

Nobody is saying that AF #15 hasn't been getting more expensive.

Those big sales last year would have trickled down to the lower grades much quicker if that was the case.

It's just that this latest surge was triggered by 3 copies that set record prices in CC.

The fact that before and after eBay prices 'blew up' and that sellers changed listings to note the CC sale is the evidence.

Have any of these Ebay copies sold?