THE AMAZING FANTASY #15 CLUB 39 39

[VintageComics]

9 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

Yes they were spiking. Big new GPA highs, seemingly out of the blue, across multiple grades. Particularly in the 5.0-6.5 grades going back as early as Jan 2016, and of course the blockbuster sale of the 9.4 for $454k in Feb. 2017 that really kicked things into high gear. I cited at least a dozen sales indicating a spike much sooner than that sale in March 2017.  As married as you seem to be to that fallacy, it is simply wrong and easily disproved by even a casual perusal of GPA.  Feel free to scroll back for a full refresher.  

-J.

I caught you pre-edit, BTW.   ;-)

Most reputable, reasonable, long time collecting dealers and board members disagree with you.

Scrolling back as a refresher will just serve to cement this.

I'll just leave it at that and drop it.

As should @G.A.tor

[VintageComics]

6 minutes ago, G.A.tor said:

I didn’t say it was the beginning of it all, quite the opposite. But many/most? folks do perceive it as the “beginning” , (I just saw where lou_fine has this same opinion) and that’s the “color” vs “black and white”.

More like as 'A' beginning. A new starting point.

Most are in agreement.

[Jaydogrules]

3 hours ago, VintageComics said:

I caught you pre-edit, BTW.   ;-)

Most reputable, reasonable, long time collecting dealers and board members disagree with you.

Scrolling back as a refresher will just serve to cement this.

I'll just leave it at that and drop it.

As should @G.A.tor

Actually, I think the only person who has agreed with you is Lou Fine.  And maybe he will also re-think that as well after the comp recap I just did (again).

Keep trying to revise history and tilting though.  Between that and your inability to tell the difference between fact and opinion, or ever cite any data points or any real evidence of any kind at all whenever you decide to bless us all with your grand, sweeping proclamations and indisputable wisdom are really helping your credibility as a "long time collecting dealer" around here. 

-J.

Edited October 20, 2017 by Jaydogrules

[gadzukes]

2 hours ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

My motto is don't worry about supply,but worry about demand. Deadpool will be much more a household name a decade from now, as there will be at least a trilogy of Deadpool films which will keep the NM#98 demand up. NM#98 will be a steady winner over the next decade like Hulk #181 and AF#15.

Yeah, I have a feeling Deadpool will be going strong for the next decade.  I always like to gauge popularity of characters at halloween.  We're going to see a TON of Wonder Women costumes for the girls.  Probably a TON of Spidermans and Captain Americas.  I wonder if we'll see any little kids in Deadpool outfits?

[Glassman10]

when I turned mine over to Bob, he set that price publicly at 55K on a 5.0  He has one at $75K on his website.  In Dec of last year, it seemed to me that a 5.0 went at about 29.5 K at auction and that was a lot, but I don't have any history on whether the book stood a good chance of being bumped up in CGC. It was the 4.0 in GPA that caught me off guard at $35K I thought to be notable. 

I also recall someone speculating that there were likely about 10,000 copies not under CGC slab which seemed again to me as a really high number but I don't have sufficient perspective on it. It's certainly clear that some seriously nice books are showing up in "spare me a grade".  What is clear is a steady intense increase in the demand even in the face of a supply glut this week. I don't know how many 5.5's it will take on the market at the same time to eventually stabilize the price but surely there must be at least a temporary limit. 

Whatever the case, nothing has been quite like AF15. Not the hulk not deadpool. It lives in its own bubble. Every time it bumps up, it eliminates some potential buyers and lower grades become the choice of necessity if you want one. It's been bumping up fast this last year. I do think that whatever goes up has great potential for coming  down if there aren't clients. It has to then be the case that more buyers are entering the market than are just watching.  Again, it's not a rare book. It's simply a desired one. Is that desire love or greed or just bad judgement? The really high grades are the only rarity. 8.0's and better.

[Glassman10]

3 hours ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

My motto is don't worry about supply,but worry about demand. Deadpool will be much more a household name a decade from now, as there will be at least a trilogy of Deadpool films which will keep the NM#98 demand up. NM#98 will be a steady winner over the next decade like Hulk #181 and AF#15.

I'm dubious of this simply because of how many copies that are in print. Much of what made silver and golden age books valuable is because mom's everywhere thought they were trash. That stopped a long time ago with some inexplicable exceptions but even they hit a ceiling. (iron man 55,  ASM129).  Value now may be restricted to 9.6 copies with anything below deemed as "common"

[ComicConnoisseur]

1 hour ago, Glassman10 said:

I'm dubious of this simply because of how many copies that are in print. Much of what made silver and golden age books valuable is because mom's everywhere thought they were trash. That stopped a long time ago with some inexplicable exceptions but even they hit a ceiling. (iron man 55,  ASM129).  Value now may be restricted to 9.6 copies with anything below deemed as "common"

Noted,but Deadpool is the number one Marvel character from the 1990s. There are millions of Spawn 1s and even that will net you a profit. NM #98 is much rarer than Spawn #1. It is about demand with certain comics. 

What I think happens is the older generation blows off how big Deadpool is to millennials and doesn't realize how he is a generation's Spider-Man or Superman.

 

 

Edited October 20, 2017 by ComicConnoisseur

[Glassman10]

21 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

Noted,but Deadpool is the number one Marvel character from the 1990s. There are millions of Spawn 1s and even that will net you a profit. NM #98 is much rarer than Spawn #1. It is about demand with certain comics. 

What I think happens is the older generation blows off how big Deadpool is to millennials and doesn't realize how he is a generation's Spider-Man or Superman.

 

 

no one in my generation would have ever thought AF15 was significant. In 1967-68, I could buy it for $80 bucks. Mom's were still throwing comics away. Believe me, I know.  It's not true now ( about those moms)  and supply will really dictate value. I think that's settled economics. 

Obviously time will tell . I'm actually relieved to no longer own the AF15.

Don't get me wrong. I love deadpool as a concept but I don't think that determines investment value. 

Edited October 20, 2017 by Glassman10
random thoughts

[Glassman10]

3 hours ago, gadzukes said:

Yeah, I have a feeling Deadpool will be going strong for the next decade.  I always like to gauge popularity of characters at halloween.  We're going to see a TON of Wonder Women costumes for the girls.  Probably a TON of Spidermans and Captain Americas.  I wonder if we'll see any little kids in Deadpool outfits?

more likely Donald Trump.

[ComicConnoisseur]

10 minutes ago, Glassman10 said:

no one in my generation would have ever thought AF15 was significant. In 1967-68, I could buy it for $80 bucks. Mom's were still throwing comics away. Believe me, I know.  It's not true now ( about those moms)  and supply will really dictate value. I think that's settled economics. 

The kind of thinking that works in economics and the stock market doesn't work here. 

With that said I guarantee all three AF#15, Incredible Hulk#181 and NM#98 will all be more expensive in 5-10 years, most likely doubling in value at the 10 year mark.

Better than putting your money in a savings account with the low interest rates the banks give you,plus how in 5-10 years that money sitting in that bank account will be worth less than now do to inflation.

In the future there will be still people ten years from now still hoping there will be a market correction that AF #15 will be at a lower price than it is now. 

It ain't gonna happen.

 

Edited October 20, 2017 by ComicConnoisseur

[ComicConnoisseur]

2 hours ago, Glassman10 said:

I'm dubious of this simply because of how many copies that are in print. Much of what made silver and golden age books valuable is because mom's everywhere thought they were trash. That stopped a long time ago with some inexplicable exceptions but even they hit a ceiling. (iron man 55,  ASM129).  Value now may be restricted to 9.6 copies with anything below deemed as "common"

I think were you are getting confused with my thought is you think I am saying NM# 98 will become as valuable like AF#15 and Incredible Hulk #181. That's not my thought. My thought is all three comic keys AF#15, Incredible Hulk #181 and NM #98 will all rise in value and are good investments. Certainly, just as good as an investment as putting that same amount of money to purchase these comics and letting that same amount of money sit in a savings account for 5 years in a bank.

[Glassman10]

6 minutes ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

The kind of thinking that works in economics and the stock market doesn't work here. 

With that said I guarantee all three AF#15, Incredible Hulk#181 and NM#98 will all be more expensive in 5-10 years, most likely doubling in value at the 10 year mark.

Better than putting your money in a savings account with the low interest rates the banks give you,plus how in 5-10 years that money sitting in that bank account will be worth less than now do to inflation.

In the future there will be still people ten years from now still hoping there will be a market correction that AF #15 will be at a lower price than it is now. 

It ain't gonna happen.

 

your reasoning is why the prices will likely go up but Keynesian economics are really pretty solid on the subject.  I can only tell you that putting the money in VISA and MC five years back - which I did yields far better than what you anticipate.  My AF 15 is one of those pure dumb luck ventures of finding it in a bus. Not true with the CC companies. They are more like shooting fish in a tuna can. BUT not nearly as much fun to read.  And reading them is part of my gripe. Things were a lot better when I could open that AF 15. After it was slabbed. no, not really. It was at that point a stock certificate. 

[ComicConnoisseur]

1 minute ago, Glassman10 said:

your reasoning is why the prices will likely go up but Keynesian economics are really pretty solid on the subject.  I can only tell you that putting the money in VISA and MC five years back - which I did yields far better than what you anticipate.  My AF 15 is one of those pure dumb luck ventures of finding it in a bus. Not true with the CC companies. They are more like shooting fish in a tuna can. BUT not nearly as much fun to read.  And reading them is part of my gripe. Things were a lot better when I could open that AF 15. After it was slabbed. no, not really. It was at that point a stock certificate. 

That's good fortune, but  let's say somebody would buy a AF #15, Hulk #181 and NM #98 now than I would say they would be able to sell all three for profit in 5 to 10 years down the line.

Some people just don't want to admit you can actually make profits off certain comic book keys.

I have been arguing and debating this subject with Wall Street/lawyer guys for over a decade, and everytime I look the comic book keys keep going up. 

 

 

[alexgross.com]

3 hours ago, gadzukes said:

Yeah, I have a feeling Deadpool will be going strong for the next decade.  I always like to gauge popularity of characters at halloween.  We're going to see a TON of Wonder Women costumes for the girls.  Probably a TON of Spidermans and Captain Americas.  I wonder if we'll see any little kids in Deadpool outfits?

i agree with this. by the way, my 3 year old is going as batman, and his friend from preschool is also going as batman. so the dark knight still seems to stay near the top of the list along with these others. but i'm sure in a few years, he'll wanna be deadpool, or preferably wolverine, if i have any sway. he loves spidey too. batman and spidey all day for him at this age. helps that there are kids books featuring those characters. if we start seeing deadpool books for 3 year olds, then we'll really know he's fully mainstream!

[NoMan]

I guess I gotta get me a Hulk 181. I got the other big Bronze keys.  Just can't seem to get excited about picking one up over some other books. 

But there is most surely a possum in the pear tree when it comes to IH 181 as Kid Colt Outlaw would say. 

 

[Glassman10]

2 hours ago, ComicConnoisseur said:

Some people just don't want to admit you can actually make profits off certain comic book keys.

******

 

 

I absolutely agree with this sentiment. It's a question of how much you can achieve.  AF 15 is a better investment if that's what you're doing. In terms of risk? I'd say Mastercard. 

Edited October 20, 2017 by Glassman10

[lou_fine]

12 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

Actually, I think the only person who has agreed with you is Lou Fine.  And maybe he will also re-think that as well after the comp recap I just did (again).

You wish..........in your dreams!!!   

As supported by Gator's statement which stated that the CC 5.0 $57K auction sale was the emotional trigger for this current phase of the AF 15 markeplace:

14 hours ago, G.A.tor said:

The sale that got folks really “talking” or really shocked /surprised was the 57k cgc 5.0. Clearly if you presented a dozen data points the market was already on an outlier type /exponential increase (I don’t know, I didn’t read at the time nor would I try to scroll back  ) then that would support the analytical aspect of the discussion, but imo, the 5.0 sale was the emotional/intangible trigger ...that’s the sale most I’ve seen or talked to attribute...just a matter of perception...comic buying/selling still interjects emotion and that can’t always be analytically attributed

 

And as further evidence, the biggest amount of buzz was for the CC 5.0 $57K auction result, relative to the murmurings for the other AF 15 auction results.  This point is again supported by Gator's statement as follows:

13 hours ago, G.A.tor said:

The difference is I don’t recall any of that “buzz” as apparently everyone that points to the 5.0/57k perceived as well. 25% up is one thing. 100% up, that’s a difference maker to folks’ opinion and perception

And yes, 25% is not a big deal when compared to an 100% increase.  I also believe that the 9.2 and 9.4 AF 15 sales had less of an impact because that is a completely different sandbox where the majority of the AF 15 collectors do not play in.  The CGC 5.0 $57K sale had a much bigger impact with respect to the CGC 2.5 to CGC 7.5 sandbox because this is where the overwhelming majority of the AF 15 collectors play in. 

 

[Jaydogrules]

29 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

You wish..........in your dreams!!!   

As supported by Gator's statement which stated that the CC 5.0 $57K auction sale was the emotional trigger for this current phase of the AF 15 markeplace:

 

And as further evidence, the biggest amount of buzz was for the CC 5.0 $57K auction result, relative to the murmurings for the other AF 15 auction results.  This point is again supported by Gator's statement as follows:

And yes, 25% is not a big deal when compared to an 100% increase.  I also believe that the 9.2 and 9.4 AF 15 sales had less of an impact because that is a completely different sandbox where the majority of the AF 15 collectors do not play in.  The CGC 5.0 $57K sale had a much bigger impact with respect to the CGC 2.5 to CGC 7.5 sandbox because this is where the overwhelming majority of the AF 15 collectors play in. 

 

But but but...I thought that 5.0 was an outlier and only sold for that because it looked so awesome for the grade and the buyer "must have" been planning to upgrade it.  

Now suddenly it was the catalyst for everything? 

Please.  Spare me. 

Revisionist history at its finest.   

-J.

 And PS- the 9.2 Hulk 1 selling for $320k a few years back is what's generally considered the catalyst for the price spike in the lower grades with that book as well, so yeah, this isn't unprecedented.   

Edited October 21, 2017 by Jaydogrules

[blazingbob]

This is the same Gator that had to wait until October to price AF #15's?  Or is Ask Gator later now ok?  

 

[G.A.tor]

1 minute ago, blazingbob said:

This is the same Gator that had to wait until October to price AF #15's?  Or is Ask Gator later now ok?  

 

I just wait till you price them and follow your lead!