How much of a premium are we talking for newsstand issues v/s direct editions? 10 10

[paqart]

6 minutes ago, mr_highgrade said:

Since this is a Copper thread I'll throw this bad boy out there. 

Sold to a private collector for $500.00

More than double the Mile High newsstand price! Well done! Looks like about 10:1 rarity of newsstand issue on this one but I didn't count them all.

[RockMyAmadeus]

1 hour ago, mr_highgrade said:

1 hour ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

Because 1. that was the way they'd been doing it since 1939, and 2. having a sell-through of 25-35% was standard across the magazine publication industry, and not "losing money."

NYX, as a mature title, wasn't distributed to the newsstand, and never was intended to.

Do you have any documentation proof?  

Why, yes, thank you for asking!

https://icv2.com/articles/comics/view/300/newsstand-sales-slipping-board

"the average sell-through for all magazines (the percentage sold of copies distributed via returnable channel) has plummeted to just 36%."

https://www.foliomag.com/28-percent-sell-through-just-fine-after-all/

"Ogden’s newsstand sell-through is about 38 percent across all of its titles, "

Note the words "mature content" above the UPC.

Here's the press release from Marvel concerning such books:

"Parental Advisory: Explicit Content: This will be very important part of Marvel as we move forward and explore new territory. These comics, falling under our new MAX Comics banner, will contain what you'd experience in an R rated movie. Some harsh language, intense violence, perhaps even some partial nudity. To avoid confusion, the MAX titles will be designed to look very different from our mainline Marvel titles. They will not carry a Marvel logo on their covers, they will not be sold on the newsstand, and they will not be marketed to younger readers." 

(emphasis added)

https://www.cbr.com/marvels-new-ratings-system-explained/

That was a press release by Bill Rosemann in 2001, the Marketing Communications Manager at Marvel

While NYX wasn't a "MAX" title, Marvel wasn't consistent with this, which is why NYX carried the Marvel logo, a PSR+ rating AND a "mature content" label. Since it was also a mini-series, circulation decided not to distribute it to the newsstand.

Thanks for the opportunity for me to provide documentation!

Edited October 10, 2019 by RockMyAmadeus

[RockMyAmadeus]

1 hour ago, paqart said:

To summarize:

1) Stop trying to figure out rarity by using calculations that include print run estimates

No. 

Here's what I said:

"I would be willing to bet a large sum of money that the publishers were STILL PRINTING "to the old model" and were printing MORE newsstand copies than Direct copies IN 2005...and then 60-70% of those newsstand copies were "returned and destroyed." 

Copies SURVIVING is not copies PRINTED, except in the case of the Direct market (barring standard attrition.)

In 2005, print runs for DIRECT copies were in the dumps compared to the 80s and 90s...but SALES of newsstand copies were even dumpier. So, if Marvel printed, say, 100k Direct copies (we don't know), it's entirely possible they were still printing 100k...or more...newsstand copies...60-70% of which were "returned and destroyed", meaning the SURVIVING total would be about 30,000-40,000 newsstand copies. Assuming 99% of the Direct copies survived, that means a survival rate of 10 Directs for every 3-4 newsstands WHEN NEW. Further attrition tends to affect newsstand copies to a far greater degree than Direct copies.

And as I said before, newsstand copies tended to sell to READERS, not dealers, which is a factor that has to be remembered. 

I'm not stating this as fact....I'm simply saying it's certainly comfortably within the realm of possibility.

 

1 hour ago, paqart said:

2) How many ways do I have to say this before you figure it out?

No. You simply didn't follow what I'd said about the very specific issue of "printing to the old model", explained above.

1 hour ago, paqart said:

Actually, I am running another comparison, and that is to use the "observed in the wild" ratio to check the chart Nobel prints all over his page for reliability.

That "chart' is Rozanski's, and it is wrong. Rozanski stopped dealing with the old distribution system, and went to the Direct market, by the mid 70s. He was not in a position to know how these titles sold. He's repeating hearsay, and Nobel is repeating that hearsay in turn. Nobel has turned Rozanski's wild guesses into "hard" data, and run with it as if it's all just established fact, rather than wild guesses.

By the way....here's yet another inaccurate statement on the "rarecomics" blog:

"The first distinction introduced to close this loophole was the barcode strike-through:

The first attempt to close the loophole and make direct sold copies distinguishable: a strike-through of the bar code. This served the purpose, but didn’t look so great.

Shown above are two copies of Amazing Spider-Man #201, side by side.  At left, a direct edition copy; at right, a returnable newsstand copy.  To close the loophole where some comic shops were returning their non-returnable copies through the newsstand channel, a strike-through was placed over the bar code for direct sold copies — the strike-through meant that copy could not be returned for a refund.

 

This is incorrect. The "strike-through" was to prevent Direct market copies that were destined for "pre-packs" from being SCANNED. The strike-through prevented that. This was the solution that Marvel came up with after already having had over 2 years experience with this problem already (since late '76/early '77.) This is why the "blank" UPC boxes exist.

What Nobel gets wrong...because he doesn't know...is that the cover dress that distinguished the Direct copies from the newsstand copies was the PRICE and NUMBER box; specifically, the "diamond." And why? Some distributors were still using the "strip" method for returns, taking off the top 1/3rd of the cover, which contained the TITLE of the book as well as the issue #. But Nobel doesn't know this, so he just assumes. 

Edited October 10, 2019 by RockMyAmadeus

[RockMyAmadeus]

1 hour ago, paqart said:

just because ASM 238 is hard to find as an NS comic.

I have several newsstand versions of ASM #238; what premium are you willing to pay me for them...?

1 hour ago, paqart said:

It seems to me that the prices should initially be doubled, then again, and again, until collectors stop buying them.

The only premiums such as you are describing, should be for 9.8+ copies.

[mr_highgrade]

5 minutes ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

I have several newsstand versions of ASM #238; what premium are you willing to pay me for them...?

The only premiums such as you are describing, should be for 9.8+ copies.

You have several newsstand versions of ASM #238  I thought you hated those ugly bar codes? 

[RockMyAmadeus]

Just now, mr_highgrade said:

You have several newsstand versions of ASM #238  I thought you hated those ugly bar codes? 

I'm not a fan, but a copy's a copy.

[RockMyAmadeus]

here's a copy i recently sold

[paqart]

7 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

I have several newsstand versions of ASM #238; what premium are you willing to pay me for them...?

The only premiums such as you are describing, should be for 9.8+ copies.

It was on my want list until I discovered how much more difficult it is to find the later issues. Now I’m looking for ASMs from 500 and up. For the most part though, I’ve bought as many as I feel like buying for the time being, after spending too much time and a couple thousand dollars on these things over the last month or so. My favorite comics are all by Carl Barks, that is what I actually collect. These newsstand variants I’m getting because it’s fun to track them down, not because of their intrinsic interest as comics. Also, I remember the 30/35 cent price variant issue from the mid/late seventies, don’t want to miss the boat on buying some inexpensive comics now that could be traded for high quality Barks later.

i also just noticed your comic is signed. I hate signatures and don’t care whose signature it is. They deface the comic, lower the condition (in my opinion, don’t care what CGC says on this) and lower the value. To me, your 9.8 should be priced as a 5.0 or so, like any other comic that a kid wrote their name on. The thing that bugs me about signatures, apart from the effect on condition, is how artificial the process of getting a signature is. You go to a con, pay an artist fifty dollars each to sign a stack of comics, and suddenly they are worth more. Doesn’t make sense to me.

Edited October 10, 2019 by paqart

[Foley]

[Lazyboy]

9 hours ago, paqart said:

So, for fun, is there any consensus any what kind of premium is appropriate for newsstand editions?

Whatever some sucker is willing to pay while not being misled by numbers some huckster pulled out of his butt.

It doesn't matter how rare or awesome you think something is if nobody is willing to pay for it.

[RockMyAmadeus]

48 minutes ago, paqart said:

also just noticed your comic is signed. I hate signatures and don’t care whose signature it is. They deface the comic, lower the condition (in my opinion, don’t care what CGC says on this) and lower the value. To me, your 9.8 should be priced as a 5.0 or so, like any other comic that a kid wrote their name on. The thing that bugs me about signatures, apart from the effect on condition, is how artificial the process of getting a signature is. You go to a con, pay an artist fifty dollars each to sign a stack of comics, and suddenly they are worth more. Doesn’t make sense to me.

Oh, I have copies that aren't signed. Yet. 

$50? Each? Not unless your name is "Frank Miller", and you look like you're about 10 minutes away from meeting the Grim Reaper...

The reason they are "worth more" is because there are buyers (including me!) willing to PAY more. Basic market economics.

[paqart]

2 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

The reason they are "worth more" is because there are buyers (including me!) willing to PAY more.

Totally understand that. I wouldn't buy a signed comic for myself or to resell unless it was part of a package deal. If somehow I got one, I'd unload it at the first opportunity. The market does pay more for these, so I would expect a commensurate price, but wouldn't pay it myself, even to flip for a profit unless I absolutely had a customer sitting right there to pay for it.

[paqart]

10 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

The only premiums such as you are describing, should be for 9.8+ copies.

I'd love to see the fair prices you have for slabbed newsstand comics, particularly from between 2010-2013. So far I only have two newsstand slabs from the really HTF era, in 9.6 and 8.5, respectively. I have a couple dozen raws that will likely be between 9.4-9.8, but one never knows.

[paqart]

2 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

Oh, I have copies that aren't signed. Yet. 

Keep in mind, this issue isn't on my want list. I mentioned it in a list of examples to illustrate how a common newsstand comic (ASM 252) can be preceded by a less common newsstand comic (ASM 238). The fact that you have multiples of it yourself doesn't meaningfully change the fact that 252's are about five times more common than 238's. If I had a choice between the two and had to buy one of the two, my preference is 238. However, the range of options is much broader than that. For the price of one slabbed 238, I'd rather get ten or more raw ASM's numbered above 550 or so, provided I could find them.

[paqart]

2 hours ago, Lazyboy said:

Whatever some sucker is willing to pay

You wouldn't happen to be a dealer? If so, gotta say, your attitude is really special.

[RockMyAmadeus]

1 minute ago, paqart said:

 252's are about five times more common than 238's

I know you believe this, but you really ought not say things like this without proper context, because you, I, nor anyone has any idea how much more common one is than the other. Because of the nature of the two books, yes, #252s can reasonably be said to be more common...but assigning a random number based on what is available for sale, without providing context for how you came up with that number, is the "pulling numbers out of your butt" that Lazyboy was referring to earlier.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

6 minutes ago, paqart said:

2 hours ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

Oh, I have copies that aren't signed. Yet. 

Keep in mind, this issue isn't on my want list.

That's good, because my copies aren't for sale.

[RCheli]

To piggyback on RMA, it's very likely that Marvel and DC still distributed a significant number of newsstand copies even up to the end of their program. They may not have sold that many (because no comics were selling a lot at the time), but they still printed them.

Think of how comics are printed. First, they print the guts of the book -- the 32 or 48 or 62 pages -- which have the story. Then they print the cover -- which is usually on a heavier stock. And then  they bind them together.

Back in the days before digital printing, setting up an issue to print was pretty costly, so they more they printed, the cheaper the per-copy cost was. I'm making up a number, because I don't know the specifics, but it maybe cost them $10,000 to set up the issue to print (creating the plates, setting up the plates to run, QC, etc), $18,000 to print 50,000 copies, $25,000 to print 100,000 copies and $35,000 to print 200,000 copies.

For them to print a newsstand copy, all they had to do was change the plate for the cover alone, and usually it was only the bar code and price area. So if they were already printing a lot that was pre-sold for the direct market, it wasn't a financial burden to have them print some newsstand copies. 

[paqart]

1 hour ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

That's good, because my copies aren't for sale.

LOL

[RockMyAmadeus]

11 minutes ago, paqart said:

1 hour ago, RockMyAmadeus said:

That's good, because my copies aren't for sale.

LOL

I am still, however, interested in what sort of premium you WOULD pay, IF you were buying, as you claimed earlier that, and I quote: "ASM 238 is hard to find as an NS comic."

I did a quick check on eBay at this moment and discovered that of the number of ASM #238s for sale right now in single copy listings, 71 of them are newsstand copies, and 74 are Direct market copies. So, I would like to understand what you consider "hard to find." While, as @valiantman has mentioned, what's "available" is only an indication of what's for sale, not what exists, and any snapshot on eBay is just what's available in a single moment in time, it's nearly a 1:1 ratio currently. That's pretty compelling evidence that newsstands for the issue are neither rare absolutely, nor rare relative to their Direct market counterparts.

Thank you for your kind response.