'Shazam' movie official thread (because he deserves one too)
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How Forbes.com assessed the situation.

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Anyway, that multiplier is pretty close to the 1.23x multiplier of Captain America: The Winter Soldier’s first week ($117 million from a $95 million debut five years ago). The two comparisons that will (hopefully) be relevant going forward are the aforementioned Captain America sequel (which earned $259 million domestic from a $95 million launch just before the start of the summer season in 2014) and Rampage ($101 million from a $35 million launch last April). The Dwayne Johnson video game adaptation fell just 43% in its second weekend but took a hit from Avengers: Infinity War in weekend three. But the Brad Peyton-directed flick still earned $428 million worldwide on a $120 million budget.

 

There has been much talk about how DC Films’ Shazam! is going to be crushed by Avengers: Endgame when the latter opens two weeks from today. And, relatively speaking, that’s probably true. Sure, Shazam! may stick around due to its kid-friendly content and its “mere” 132-minute running time (as opposed to the 182-minute Avengers finale), but I’d wager that Captain Marvel is more likely to get a “rising waters lift all boats” boost from the MCU sequel than the DC Films fantasy. That being said, Rampage earned $30 million of its eventual $101 million cume AFTER Avengers: Infinity War debuted. And it had one less week to do its thing versus Shazam!

 

The financial narrative for Shazam!, whether it was a well-liked, well-reviewed and reasonably budgeted ($90 million) DC Films flick that legged it past $160 million or a well-liked and well-reviewed DC Films flick that nonetheless didn’t pull in the unconverted past opening weekend and ended up with around $130 million, or somewhere in between, will be determined by how much money it earns before Avengers: Endgame. If Shazam! has already done its thing by April 25 at 6:00 pm, then it won’t matter if Avengers 4 snaps its earning potential in half. But if it falls big this weekend and doesn’t recover next weekend, then that it opened three weeks before Avengers: Endgame will be mere trivia.

This weekend will be critical to its box office health.

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Posted (edited)
Spoiler

gotta say, when freddie turned into jr., that blue costume had my face cracking open with the smile i was sportin'.

 

Edited by Straw-Man

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7 hours ago, Mr.TawkyTawny said:

This is a bit o' foolish nonsense, I picked up tickets to see Shazam! this evening and found that it is no longer being shown in either 3D or IMAX format in my neighborhood movie theatres anywhere as some asinine "Missing Link" movie took over all the available 3D projection screens in town.

Looks like those theaters are going financially regret that decision.

 

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Bosco685 said:
7 hours ago, Mr.TawkyTawny said:

This is a bit o' foolish nonsense, I picked up tickets to see Shazam! this evening and found that it is no longer being shown in either 3D or IMAX format in my neighborhood movie theatres anywhere as some asinine "Missing Link" movie took over all the available 3D projection screens in town.   I've also noticed that I'll have only till next week Thursday to see Shazam! a few more times and it will be gone.

Since when was it predetermined that Shazam! has only a limited two week theatre engagement?!   I didn't get the memo on this...

Interesting. Are the local theaters noting it is being pulled that soon? :ohnoez:

I have just two cinema exhibitors in my metropolis of 1M population, Reading International and Regal Cineworld Group.  I searched both company websites and Shazam! in standard 2D is only being screened.  Now that I've decompressed from my prior posting, I'm thinking their on-line advance ticket listings are limited to the next calender 7 days incrementally as I don't see a lot of current movies listed the weekend after next either so I may have jumped the gun and need to humbly redact my statement Shazam!'s exhibition is ending early. 

I was eagerly looking forward to watching Shazam! in Real D 3D again like I enjoyed last week as the cinematography is high art gorgeous and was majorly dissapointed it wasn't being screened in 3D tonight or any other night.   Adamantly recommend to everyone to see this film in 3D if you still have the chance as it's more awe inspiring than 2D.

Tonight's viewing makes four times for me as I can't get enough of the first 15 minutes which IMO is the finest movie prelude ever printed on film since Saving Private Ryan.  I swear Shazam! has got me jonesing and gets better and better every time I see it...  :whee:

Edited by Mr.TawkyTawny

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Shazam at 2.6X production budget (using the high-end figure of $100M versus the assumed average of $90M) is at the same level as Captain America: The First Avenger throughout its entire run.

DC_MCU_BO190414a.thumb.PNG.06e4bc6fbe89cd0c2de8f93ca84dde7d.PNG

Not a bad place to be by the 2nd weekend.

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4 minutes ago, Bosco685 said:

Shazam at 2.6X production budget (using the high-end figure of $100M versus the assumed average of $90M) is at the same level as Captain America: The First Avenger throughout its entire run.

DC_MCU_BO190414a.thumb.PNG.06e4bc6fbe89cd0c2de8f93ca84dde7d.PNG

Not a bad place to be by the 2nd weekend.

The First Avenger?  What's the point in comparing this to a movie that came out 8 years ago?

That's called trying to put lipstick on a pig.

How about comparing it to movies that just came out instead, with comparable budgets?

Compared to Venom, Logan, and even Spider-verse, this movie is performing terribly for Warner Bros.  

I agree that the timing of the release is probably primarily to blame (with two other super hero movies still in theaters and a third on the way in a couple weeks I will just hope that it isn't the dreaded and often talked about "superhero fatigue" finally setting in).  

-J.

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16 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

The First Avenger?  What's the point in comparing this to a movie that came out 8 years ago?

That's called trying to put lipstick on a pig.

How about comparing it to movies that just came out instead, with comparable budgets?

Compared to Venom, Logan, and even Spider-verse, this movie is performing terribly for Warner Bros.  

I agree that the timing of the release is probably primarily to blame (with two other super hero movies still in theaters and a third on the way in a couple weeks I will just hope that it isn't the dreaded and often talked about "superhero fatigue" finally setting in).  

-J.

Comparing it to Captain America? Where did I do that?

If you take the time to read what I posted versus trying to drive your narrative this film is bombing, you would have noted I stated Shazam at 2.6X is right where Captain America: The First Avengers was at throughout its entire run. That was it.

Comparing it to Deadpool or Venom (two low-budget films that were wildly successful) could be an option. But one has extremely close ties to the X-Men franchise and the other Spider-Man. Shazam has history with the JL, but never was mentioned or hinted at throughout the DCU films. So where is the fit in order to go along with your negative narrative?

It is definitely bad timing between two massive and associated films. But with that, the film is still moving forward in a promising pattern matching a lower-budget Ant-Man fashion. With two follow-up films already lined up (Black Adam, Shazam 2). It's all good.

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Bosco685 said:

Comparing it to Captain America? Where did I do that?

If you take the time to read what I posted versus trying to drive your narrative this film is bombing, you would have noted I stated Shazam at 2.6X is right where Captain America: The First Avengers was at throughout its entire run. That was it.

[B)Comparing it to Deadpool or Venom (two low-budget films that were wildly successful) could be an option. But one has extremely close ties to the X-Men franchise and the other Spider-Man.[/b] Shazam has history with the JL, but never was mentioned or hinted at throughout the DCU films. So where is the fit in order to go along with your negative narrative?

It is definitely bad timing between two massive and associated films. But with that, the film is still moving forward in a promising pattern matching a lower-budget Ant-Man fashion. With two follow-up films already lined up (Black Adam, Shazam 2). It's all good.

I agree that Venom and Deadpool benefited from built-in brand name recognition (and Venom was obviously far better known than Shazam was), but even under the rosiest interpretations, this will be, by far, the lowest grossing film of the DCEU. The fact that this will make less than Fantastic Four (2005, also on a $100MM budget) domestically is just plain bad, and if it wasn't for China (which is also very weak by today's standards), it wouldn't even make what the original FF made globally 14 years ago.  That isn't a "narrative", that's stating a fact, and it will continue the seeming pattern of the DCEU, with it's one step forward, one step backward thing it has going on. I didn't call this movie a "bomb" (yet).  It may still pull a strong Easter weekend next week to at least get to "passable" before Endgame comes along and flushes this along with everything else down the toilet the following week.

And "lined up" films have a funny way of falling into  black holes when final box office numbers actually start rolling in (see, e.g. ASM 2).

-J.

Edited by Jaydogrules

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I also think the movie has a chance to stay in theater longer than expected because of all of the word of mouth it's getting.

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1 hour ago, Jaydogrules said:

I agree that Venom and Deadpool benefited from built-in brand name recognition (and Venom was obviously far better known than Shazam was), but even under the rosiest interpretations, this will be, by far, the lowest grossing film of the DCEU. The fact that this will make less than Fantastic Four (2005, also on a $100MM budget) domestically is just plain bad, and if it wasn't for China (which is also very weak by today's standards), it wouldn't even make what the original FF made globally 14 years ago.  That isn't a "narrative", that's stating a fact, and it will continue the seeming pattern of the DCEU, with it's one step forward, one step backward thing it has going on. I didn't call this movie a "bomb" (yet).  It may still pull a strong Easter weekend next week to at least get to "passable" before Endgame comes along and flushes this along with everything else down the toilet the following week.

And "lined up" films have a funny way of falling into  black holes when final box office numbers actually start rolling in (see, e.g. ASM 2).

-J.

Sure. If that works for you. (::insane:

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'Shazam!' Is No More A Box Office Bomb Than 'Ant-Man' Or 'The Wolverine'

Quote

It looks like Shazam!, a kid-friendly superhero adventure, got a rescue on Saturday and Sunday from the kids. After a sharp 69% decline on Friday, the DC Films flick rallied 74% on Saturday for an $11 million gross and what turned out to be a $25.1  million second weekend. If you count the film’s debut as $53.5 million, that’s a 53% drop, or better than (for example) Captain America: The Winter Soldier (-56% in weekend two from a $95 million debut frame) and about even with Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (-53% from a $35 million debut).

 

But if you count the film’s sneak previews ($3.3 million two weeks before opening day) in the debut weekend numbers (as I do, since anyone who showed up two weeks early would otherwise have seen the film on opening weekend), then it’s a 55.8% drop from a $56.8 million debut, which still makes it about as leggy as The Winter Soldier or Venom (-56% from an $80 million launch). Point being, despite some weak weekday holds (save for a 61% bounce on Tuesday), Shazam! is doing squarely “fine.” Again, we’re dealing with a $90 million-budgeted superhero flick opening right between Captain Marvel and Avengers: Endgame.

 

This was never going to do Justice League or Man of Steel numbers, let alone Aquaman or Wonder Woman grosses. What it proved for Warner Bros. was that DC Films could make three winning solo superhero movies in a row and that they could make a qualitative winner from a comparatively cult-level character.

 

And with a probable domestic finish just over/under Mad Max: Fury Road's $153 million finish, and a worldwide finish probably over/under $385 million worldwide (it earned $61 million global over the weekend), it’s a relative success. Whether or not it gets stomped by Avengers: Endgame in two weeks, it’ll have made most of its money already. With $259 million worldwide as of today, it’s safely in “break even” territory and will absolutely be profitable.

 

Again, this was a New Line production intended to earn New Line money on an upper-level New Line budget. That means that its failure to break out in China is an annoyance rather than a catastrophe. The upper-level comparison is Rampage ($428 million worldwide on a $120 million budget last April) while the comfort zone was The Nun ($356 million worldwide on a $22 million budget).

 

If we really want variety in our superhero movies, in terms of size, scale and genre, then we can’t expect every DC Films or MCU superhero flick to earn $600 million-to-$800 million worldwide every time out. Yes, Sony’s $90 million Venom went bonkers and earned $855 million worldwide, but Sony’s $90 million Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse earned $375 million worldwide. I don’t think there’s anyone out there arguing that a second Spider-Verse movie isn’t justified or that it won’t be at least a little bit bigger than the first go-around.

I made that for even the most myopic readers. :insane:

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Again, we’re dealing with a $90 million-budgeted superhero flick opening right between Captain Marvel and Avengers: Endgame.

i highlighted the erroneous information for those that are sticklers for accuracy in financial reporting (unlike Forbes apparently)

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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, paperheart said:

Again, we’re dealing with a $90 million-budgeted superhero flick opening right between Captain Marvel and Avengers: Endgame.

i highlighted the erroneous information for those that are sticklers for accuracy in financial reporting (unlike Forbes apparently)

With the variance right now 'accuracy in financial reporting' is interesting and selective.

VARIETY: $80M production budget

DEADLINE (Anthony D'Alessandro): $100M production budget

DEADLINE (Nancy Tartaglione); Estimated $100M production budget

BOX OFFICE MOJO: $100M production budget

THE-NUMBERS: $85M production budget

IMDB: $100M production budget

SCREEN RANT: Probably closer to $80M to 100M production budget

THE WRAP: $100M production budget

IGN: $80M production budget

DEN OF GEEKS: $100M production budget

FORBES.COM (Scott Mendelson): Estimated $90M production budget

FORBES.COM (Mark Hughes): Estimated $90M (+) production budget

For me, I went with BOM.

Edited by Bosco685
Added second Deadline contributor & Forbes.com

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