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Cerebus 1 a more valuable key than Hulk 181? Really Overstreet? Poll on Page 87
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1,571 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, Jaydogrules said:

Is aadrvark a modern delicacy ? ;)

-J.

Fating him up and add some gravy cook for a few hours and eat the little porker!! Only 2000 produced so not many to go around on a day like Easter. No money no eat!!

Edited by SC22
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Maybe I should read all 70+ pages of this post so I don't repeat what others have said a zillion times??? 

Naaaa.

The highest graded copy of Cerebus 1 is two copies at 9.4.  The last time one of those 9.4's sold two years ago, it was for $9,000. Two years ago, Incredible Hulk 181 in 9.4 was a $4,000 book. 

CGC just announced they graded the 10,000th copy of Hulk 181.  Cerebus has 207 graded copies. 

This is a good example of scarcity affecting price. Wolverine is a much more popular character. But his first appearance is a popular book, not a scarce one.  Cerebus has a loyal following - and there isn't much available to them to purchase in any grade, never mind true NM. 

If a Cerebus #1 was ever graded 9.8 and auctioned off, it would sell for multiples of Hulk 181 in 9.8, just like 9.4's already do. 

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Yes you are correct on all counts, but more importantly, how many people are serious buyers right now for Hulk 181 vs C 1?  You have to scale the demand for the supply.  If it is 10,000 copies vs 200 copies, and that should be a large enough sample size to infer total print run, the ratio is 50:1.  Do you think there are more than 50 people trying to buy Hulk 181 for every one person shopping C 1?  My guess is yes.  Considering the heat of marvel movies and the recent Fox studio acquisition, the real number for that ratio could be in the hundreds or thousands.
 

 

Edited by 90sChild
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On 12/14/2017 at 8:31 PM, Tony S said:

Maybe I should read all 70+ pages of this post so I don't repeat what others have said a zillion times??? 

Naaaa.

The highest graded copy of Cerebus 1 is two copies at 9.4.  The last time one of those 9.4's sold two years ago, it was for $9,000. Two years ago, Incredible Hulk 181 in 9.4 was a $4,000 book. 

CGC just announced they graded the 10,000th copy of Hulk 181.  Cerebus has 207 graded copies. 

This is a good example of scarcity affecting price. Wolverine is a much more popular character. But his first appearance is a popular book, not a scarce one.  Cerebus has a loyal following - and there isn't much available to them to purchase in any grade, never mind true NM. 

If a Cerebus #1 was ever graded 9.8 and auctioned off, it would sell for multiples of Hulk 181 in 9.8, just like 9.4's already do. 

Maybe you should have read the thread because you just made the same straw man arguments that others did before you.  Cerebus 1 highest grade sold for $9k.  Hulk 181 highest sold for $150k.  No comparison. 

The ONLY grade Cerebus sells for more than 181 is 9.4 (cerebus' highest grade).  Every grade below that , 181 sells for more.  A lot more.  Every single day.

Unfortunately for Cerebus , overstreet uses the grade 9.2 for its comparisons.  181 wins there.  By a lot.  

And while this little rehash  is all well and good this entire thread was rendered moot when overstreet ranked hulk 181 higher than Cerebus 1 two or three years ago.  As the late Bill Paxton once said - Game Over , Man.

And I highly doubt 9.8 Cerebus 1 would crack anywhere near $20k.  Unless two super Cerebus fans got into a pizzing contest in an auction.  And even then, nope. 

Like I said before , the book is niche and the demand for it is beyond weak.  

-J.

Edited by Jaydogrules
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11 hours ago, Lazyboy said:

Um... duh? You of all people should understand how auctions work. It's not like any of your beloved variants have more than 3 (if even that many) people bidding above 50% or so of the hammer in most auctions.

:flamed:     lol

 

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On ‎12‎/‎16‎/‎2017 at 7:53 PM, Lazyboy said:

Comparing prices using different grades is the biggest straw man argument in the entire thread.

Yeah, that's why this thread was a joke from the start. It was solely based on irrelevant numbers from an annual huge waste of paper.

I've never started threads with titles like "It took you a full :censored:decade to realize this issue sells for 10x Guide? Really Overstreet?" because I knew it never actually mattered.

Um... duh? You of all people should understand how auctions work. It's not like any of your beloved variants have more than 3 (if even that many) people bidding above 50% or so of the hammer in most auctions.

Reminds me of certain other (versions of) books that are nowhere near as significant. :whistle:

(Wow, talk about a straw man, false equivalencies , etc., you may have even topped yourself with that one lol ).....except....not.... 

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=202104008003&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2565

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=122849345939&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2565

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=182864402662&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2565

 

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=112569645091&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2565

(^^Five bidders after the high $3K opening bid)

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=132336643247&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2565

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=132336643247&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2565

(^^ Four bidders after the high $1000 start bid)

Oh, and just for shigs and gittles, a blast from the past from the one that got it all rolling: :wink:

 

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=262029141076&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2565

(Glad we agree these are all examples of when there is a legitimate and extremely high demand for a particular book, unlike with Cerebus 1.)

-J.

Edited by Jaydogrules
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You realize you just posted multiple auctions (2/7) with only 3 bidders participating at over 50% of the hammer price, right?

The others are obviously outliers, like higher-selling White Pages auctions. :sumo:

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8 minutes ago, Lazyboy said:

You realize you just posted multiple auctions (2/7) with only 3 bidders participating at over 50% of the hammer price, right?

The others are obviously outliers, like higher-selling White Pages auctions. :sumo:

Uh no, I didn't. They all had at least four bidders at 50% of final hammer and higher.  Look again.   And those are some of the most recent auctions of the most valuable variants that were not buy it nows, best offers , or one bid "auctions".  In other words, the norm.  (thumbsu

-J.

Edited by Jaydogrules
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1 hour ago, Jaydogrules said:

Uh no, I didn't. They all had at least four bidders at 50% of final hammer and higher.  Look again.   And those are some of the most recent auctions of the most valuable variants that were not buy it nows, best offers , or one bid "auctions".  In other words, the norm.  (thumbsu

-J.

You might want to get your eyes checked or learn basic math.

I'll admit I was wrong, though. I didn't notice that 2 of your links were identical. So it's actually 1/3 of the auctions you posted with only 3 bidders participating at over 50% of the hammer price.

1 hour ago, Jaydogrules said:

The first bold auction ended at $2125.00 while the fourth highest bidder was at $800.00.

The second bold auction only had 3 bids above $1020.05 (half of the winning $2040.09), let alone bidders, and that was by less than $10.

But thanks for proving my point for me.

By the way, a seller feeling the need to start bidding in the thousands doesn't exactly scream "high demand." Any book with actual high demand should easily reach it's normal range with a $0.01 starting bid (barring lack of confidence in the seller).

Edited by Lazyboy
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16 minutes ago, Lazyboy said:

You might want to get your eyes checked or learn basic math.

I'll admit I was wrong, though. I didn't notice that 2 of your links were identical. So it's actually 1/3 of the auctions you posted with only 3 bidders participating at over 50% of the hammer price.

The first bold auction ended at $2125.00 while the fourth highest bidder was at $800.00.

The second bold auction only had 3 bids above $1020.05 (half of the winning $2040.09), let alone bidders, and that was by less than $10.

But thanks for proving my point for me.

By the way, a seller feeling the need to start bidding in the thousands doesn't exactly scream "high demand." Any book with actual high demand should easily reach it's normal range with a $0.01 starting bid (barring lack of confidence in the seller).

As always , you're mincing words. You said this :

 

" It's not like any of your beloved variants have more than 3 (if even that many) people bidding above 50% or so of the hammer in most auctions."

I then posted multiple recent auctions that directly contradict your demonstrably false and arbitrary statement.  Your response is then, "well one was technically less than 50% by 25 dollars".  Give me a break dude.  Just stop already. 

By the way, how many total people participated in this auction ?

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&item=202086603520&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2565

-J.

Edited by Jaydogrules
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On 12/15/2017 at 11:52 AM, 90sChild said:

Yes you are correct on all counts, but more importantly, how many people are serious buyers right now for Hulk 181 vs C 1?  You have to scale the demand for the supply.  If it is 10,000 copies vs 200 copies, and that should be a large enough sample size to infer total print run, the ratio is 50:1.  Do you think there are more than 50 people trying to buy Hulk 181 for every one person shopping C 1?  My guess is yes.  Considering the heat of marvel movies and the recent Fox studio acquisition, the real number for that ratio could be in the hundreds or thousands.
 

 

The print run for Cerebus 1 was 2,000 copies. The average circulation for Incredible Hulk in 1974 was I believe 250,000-275,000 copies.  So the ratio starts out about 130 to 1. 

This all reminds me very much of the conjecture on these boards a few years ago - when Star Wars 1 was selling for over 2K in 9.8 - about how Star Wars 1 would someday pass up the value of Gold Key's Star Trek 1. That discussion ended abruptly when it was pointed out a 9.8 - the ONLY 9.8 - just sold for $40K. 

There are no Cerebus 1's graded higher than 9.4. IF a 9.8 ever appears and is auctioned off, the results will be just as mind boggling to the "this character is so much more popular" crowd as it was to all the Star Wars aficionados that could not with a straight face insist a 9.8 Star Wars was going to crack $40K ever.  So walked away from the thread.   There are 104 CGC graded Hulk 181's in 9.8 - and more on the way.   

In 9.4 and better, Cerebus 1 is going to sell for more than Hulk 181. In 9.8, it will beat what is left of Hulk's pant's off. Because while popularity matters in collectibles, so does scarcity.  High end collectors that want to own the very best that don't even care about Cerebus would be in the bidding. 

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On 12/16/2017 at 9:16 PM, Jaydogrules said:

Maybe you should have read the thread because you just made the same straw man arguments that others did before you.  Cerebus 1 highest grade sold for $9k.  Hulk 181 highest sold for $150k.  No comparison. 

The ONLY grade Cerebus sells for more than 181 is 9.4 (cerebus' highest grade).  Every grade below that , 181 sells for more.  A lot more.  Every single day.

Unfortunately for Cerebus , overstreet uses the grade 9.2 for its comparisons.  181 wins there.  By a lot.  

And while this little rehash  is all well and good this entire thread was rendered moot when overstreet ranked hulk 181 higher than Cerebus 1 two or three years ago.  As the late Bill Paxton once said - Game Over , Man.

And I highly doubt 9.8 Cerebus 1 would crack anywhere near $20k.  Unless two super Cerebus fans got into a pizzing contest in an auction.  And even then, nope. 

Like I said before , the book is niche and the demand for it is beyond weak.  

-J.

I think you don't know what a Straw man argument is. The topic of this post is questioning if Cerebus 1 is more valuable than Hulk 181.  The OP thought that idea wrong... perhaps ridiculous "Really Overstreet?". 

I presented actual sales that said Cerebus is more valuable than Hulk 181 -in 9.4.  And speculated from that data point that the same would hold true in the better than NM grades. If a Cerebus 1 was ever graded 9.8, it too would also sell for much more than Hulk 181 in 9.8. 

A straw man argument is where one argues against a view the other person DOES NOT HAVE.  That is not what I did. 

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8 hours ago, Tony S said:

I think you don't know what a Straw man argument is. The topic of this post is questioning if Cerebus 1 is more valuable than Hulk 181.  The OP thought that idea wrong... perhaps ridiculous "Really Overstreet?". 

I presented actual sales that said Cerebus is more valuable than Hulk 181 -in 9.4.  And speculated from that data point that the same would hold true in the better than NM grades. If a Cerebus 1 was ever graded 9.8, it too would also sell for much more than Hulk 181 in 9.8. 

A straw man argument is where one argues against a view the other person DOES NOT HAVE.  That is not what I did. 

First , this is absolutely a straw man argument.  To repeat - Overstreet does not rank based on "9.8" values, it ranks based on NM- values (9.2).  So your speculative musings on how much you believe a hypothetical 9.8 copy of Cerebus 1 would sell for as a challenge to the original question in this defunct thread are completely moot. 

Second, I dispute your implied contention that a single sale of the single copy of a single highest graded book is all that it takes to make the statement that the book is generally "more valuable " than another (see, again, for reference , the single highest graded 9.9 copy of Hulk 181 selling for $150k).

Third, "if" a 9.8 copy of Cerebus 1 ever hit the market , it would instantly torpedo the perceived value of the few 9.4 copies on the census.  People would no longer pay the "top dollar" premium for the "top graded " copy of the book because 9.4 would no longer be the top grade.  (And here is my own bit of speculation)- "If" a 9.8 copy of Cerebus 1 appeared for sale , it would be lucky to sell for just a bit more than what a 9.4 copy has sold for, maybe $10k-$12k (on a really good day), which is a long way from what a 9.8 Hulk 181 has sold for on numerous occasions.  Meanwhile 9.4 copies would immediately become $4k-$5k books (also below Hulk 181 in that grade).  Why?  Simple.  The heretofore mentioned overall lack of demand for the title will always be a thorn in its side, as it puts a psychological cap on what people are willing to pay, even for a highest graded copy, let alone for what would now be a  two-grades-down copy that has multiple examples on the census.  

People can go back and forth all day on what might happen "if" something else happened.  However, as it stands now and for the last few years, hulk 181 is considered more valuable than Cerebus 1 by Overstreet (because it is.  By a lot).

-J.

Edited by Jaydogrules
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3 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

First , this is absolutely a straw man argument.  To repeat - Overstreet does not rank based on "9.8" values, it ranks based on NM- values (9.2).  So your speculative musings on how much you believe a hypothetical 9.8 copy of Cerebus 1 would sell for as a challenge to the original question in this defunct thread are completely moot. 

Second, I dispute your implied contention that a single sale of the single copy of a single highest graded book is all that it takes to make the statement that the book is generally "more valuable " than another (see, again, for reference , the single highest graded 9.9 copy of Hulk 181 selling for $150k).

Third, "if" a 9.8 copy of Cerebus 1 ever hit the market , it would instantly torpedo the perceived value of the few 9.4 copies on the census.  People would no longer pay the "top dollar" premium for the "top graded " copy of the book because 9.4 would no longer be the top grade.  (And here is my own bit of speculation)- "If" a 9.8 copy of Cerebus 1 appeared for sale , it would be lucky to sell for just a bit more than what a 9.4 copy has sold for, maybe $10k-$12k (on a really good day), which is a long way from what a 9.8 Hulk 181 has sold for on numerous occasions.  Meanwhile 9.4 copies would immediately become $4k-$5k books (also below Hulk 181 in that grade).  Why?  Simple.  The heretofore mentioned overall lack of demand for the title will always be a thorn in its side, as it puts a psychological cap on what people are willing to pay, even for a highest graded copy, let alone for what would now be a  two-grades-down copy that has multiple examples on the census.  

People can go back and forth all day on what might happen "if" something else happened.  However, as it stands now and for the last few years, hulk 181 is considered more valuable than Cerebus 1 by Overstreet (because it is.  By a lot).

-J.

You are 100% correct that Overstreet has Hulk 181 in 9.2 at a higher value than Cerebus 1 in 9.2. And Overstreet appears to be accurately reporting the market with those valuations. 

You present no facts whatsoever that in 9.4 or better that Hulk 181 is/would be more valuable than equivalent graded Cerebus 1.  The facts support otherwise. 

There is are only two copies of Cerebus 1 in 9.4.  One half of the total population of 9.4's have been sold in the past couple of years.  Two years ago one of the two Cerebus 1's in 9.4 sold for double what Hulk 181 does in 9.4  If both copies sold would that somehow be more authoritative?  There are ONLY two copies. You cannot have more data. 

Scarcity in collectibles does matter.  What value scarcity has is speculation until sales occur. So you speculate a 9.8 Cerebus 1 would sell for $1000-$3000 more than the one 9.4 that sold. And I speculate it would sell for 3-4X the 9.4 price.  WE will probably never KNOW who is right.  But who knows, maybe a 9.8 Cerebus 1 will show up someday. 

 

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Just to be clear, the only apples to apples comparison is at CGC 9.4 Universal. 

Cerebus 1 9.4 last sale November, 2015: $9,000
Incredible Hulk 181 9.4 last sale December, 2017: $6,000

Even from my MBA program, I'm pretty sure that $9,000 is higher than $6,000. I'm also quite sure that a Cerebus 1 in 9.6 would sell for higher than a Hulk 181 in 9.6. Also in 9.8. Ask any dealer in the country.

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