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504 posts in this topic

. The opinions of those who have disagreed with me have largely consisted of what collectors and people "might have done" or "might be doing" with this particular book. This is nothing but speculation.

 

Sorry, but you're wrong.

 

And, a better statistician than I could use the data you cite to prove it.

 

No need to rely on opinion.

 

My opinion is based on what can actually be observed in the market place, and the statistical sample therein. I am NOT basing my opinion on essentially unseen shadow inventory that cannot be proven either way that it even exists. You are suggesting that "it must exist, how can it not?". My response to that is: "Because the statistical sample size that we have seen suggests that it does not".

 

-J.

 

The census and "statistical sample" represents only a small portion of the larger picture. Drawing conclusions using that small portion is like suggesting the Mona Lisa is a painting of a cow, because the only portion you see is a small patch of brown dress.

 

It is necessarily flawed "methodology."

 

lol Not at all. Take Heritage for example. One of the preeminent auction houses for comic books (and other knick knacks). They have offered some of the best and rarest comic books from across all ages.

 

How many Sandman #8 editorials has Heritage auctioned in the last 15 years? Sandman 8, editorial, the most coveted and hardest to find of all the issues in the run?

 

3.

 

Two slabbed, and one raw.

 

That's it.

 

How many regular Sandman #8s has Heritage auctioned off in the last 15 years?

 

4.

 

Three slabbed, and one raw.

 

That's it.

Looks like this book is almost as rare as the editorial variant :whee:

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. The opinions of those who have disagreed with me have largely consisted of what collectors and people "might have done" or "might be doing" with this particular book. This is nothing but speculation.

 

Sorry, but you're wrong.

 

And, a better statistician than I could use the data you cite to prove it.

 

No need to rely on opinion.

 

My opinion is based on what can actually be observed in the market place, and the statistical sample therein. I am NOT basing my opinion on essentially unseen shadow inventory that cannot be proven either way that it even exists. You are suggesting that "it must exist, how can it not?". My response to that is: "Because the statistical sample size that we have seen suggests that it does not".

 

-J.

 

The census and "statistical sample" represents only a small portion of the larger picture. Drawing conclusions using that small portion is like suggesting the Mona Lisa is a painting of a cow, because the only portion you see is a small patch of brown dress.

 

It is necessarily flawed "methodology."

 

lol Not at all. Take Heritage for example. One of the preeminent auction houses for comic books (and other knick knacks). They have offered some of the best and rarest comic books from across all ages.

 

How many Sandman #8 editorials has Heritage auctioned in the last 15 years? Sandman 8, editorial, the most coveted and hardest to find of all the issues in the run?

 

3.

 

Two slabbed, and one raw.

 

That's it.

 

How many regular Sandman #8s has Heritage auctioned off in the last 15 years?

 

4.

 

Three slabbed, and one raw.

 

That's it.

Looks like this book is almost as rare as the editorial variant :whee:

 

Clearly, everyone threw them out.

 

Glad I kept mine.

 

I'm RICH!

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Also, there's 34 on census, right?

 

Mschmidt says he has 5-6 (let's call it 5). And saw 2 more in B'more.

 

A total of 41.

 

That would be 41% of Jdog's existing copies. That leaves only 59+/- remaining in the entire world.

 

There are more than that out there. There are probably a few people that don't even know they have one.

 

He hasn't been on here in awhile, but I'd bet supapimp has at least one of the editorial variants. Probably more. So now we're at 42% of the total "existing" comics right here on the CGC boards.

 

The collecting community is much, much larger than these boards.

 

Does anyone have contact info for Al Stoltz? He probably has one for sale. What about MSU Special collections (where I found a true rarity - Miracleman 3D - 2D)? I'll bet they have one.

 

You think Berger has a copy? I'll bet she does.

 

And on and on...

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Also, there's 34 on census, right?

 

Mschmidt says he has 5-6 (let's call it 5). And saw 2 more in B'more.

 

A total of 41.

 

That would be 41% of Jdog's existing copies. That leaves only 59+/- remaining in the entire world.

 

There are more than that out there. There are probably a few people that don't even know they have one.

 

He hasn't been on here in awhile, but I'd bet supapimp has at least one of the editorial variants.

 

Man, did that guy get run out of town. lol Deservedly so, too!

 

Gaiman probably has one. I would be SHOCKED if Tori Amos doesn't have one. Sadfan's creator probably has one.

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Also, there's 34 on census, right?

 

Mschmidt says he has 5-6 (let's call it 5). And saw 2 more in B'more.

 

A total of 41.

 

That would be 41% of Jdog's existing copies. That leaves only 59+/- remaining in the entire world.

 

There are more than that out there. There are probably a few people that don't even know they have one.

 

He hasn't been on here in awhile, but I'd bet supapimp has at least one of the editorial variants.

 

Man, did that guy get run out of town. lol Deservedly so, too!

 

Gaiman probably has one. I would be SHOCKED if Tori Amos doesn't have one. Sadfan's creator probably has one.

 

Yep.

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. The opinions of those who have disagreed with me have largely consisted of what collectors and people "might have done" or "might be doing" with this particular book. This is nothing but speculation.

 

Sorry, but you're wrong.

 

And, a better statistician than I could use the data you cite to prove it.

 

No need to rely on opinion.

 

My opinion is based on what can actually be observed in the market place, and the statistical sample therein. I am NOT basing my opinion on essentially unseen shadow inventory that cannot be proven either way that it even exists. You are suggesting that "it must exist, how can it not?". My response to that is: "Because the statistical sample size that we have seen suggests that it does not".

 

-J.

 

The census and "statistical sample" represents only a small portion of the larger picture. Drawing conclusions using that small portion is like suggesting the Mona Lisa is a painting of a cow, because the only portion you see is a small patch of brown dress.

 

It is necessarily flawed "methodology."

 

lol Not at all. Take Heritage for example. One of the preeminent auction houses for comic books (and other knick knacks). They have offered some of the best and rarest comic books from across all ages.

 

How many Sandman #8 editorials has Heritage auctioned in the last 15 years? Sandman 8, editorial, the most coveted and hardest to find of all the issues in the run?

 

3.

 

Two slabbed, and one raw.

 

That's it.

 

How many regular Sandman #8s has Heritage auctioned off in the last 15 years?

 

4.

 

Three slabbed, and one raw.

 

That's it.

Looks like this book is almost as rare as the editorial variant :whee:

 

Except.....that is but ONE of five samples I have used. The variant is nearly non -existent on ALL FIVE. For some reason you think it proves something (what, exactly I do not know) to look at but one, and not even for the actual book that we are discussing. I'm sure if I contact the other two or three major auction houses I will encounter similar numbers (ie, only two-three sold in 10-20 years). Maybe I will call them tomorrow. But hey, why look at what's actually been brought to market when it is so much more scientific to sit and and speculate on "how many other copies, maybe just might be out there" lol I'm saying around 100. We know of a couple boardies who have a few copies? Great there's three more we know of. And of course we have the (also very "scientific") anecdotal accounts of sightings of one or two copies at a con here and there. If someone can explain to me how such sparse sightings and how few copies brought to market at various auctions over the last 20 years, and only 30 or so graded and verified copies on the census somehow equates to "hundreds available" I'd be glad to listen.

 

In the meantime, feel free to find even one available copy on the open market right now and send me the link.

 

I'll wait.... :whistle:

 

-J.

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If someone can explain to me how such sparse sightings and how few copies brought to market at various auctions over the last 20 years, and only 30 or so graded and verified copies on the census somehow equates to "hundreds available" I'd be glad to listen.

 

In the meantime, feel free to find even one available copy on the open market right now and send me the link.

 

I'll wait.... :whistle:

 

-J.

 

 

There's no way you'd be "glad to listen". You didn't listen to what anyone said in the Cerebus thread and you haven't listened to what people here have said.

 

As I posted earlier, if it's not on the census or reported on GPA it doesn't exist in your world.

 

Nobody ever said there are hundreds available. There's not. Just because it's not for sale, doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

 

You're the one that capped the number of existing copies at 100. In a matter of a few hours, we accounted for nearly 50% of that.

 

The collecting world is far bigger than these boards and GPA.

Edited by chrisco37
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If someone can explain to me how such sparse sightings and how few copies brought to market at various auctions over the last 20 years, and only 30 or so graded and verified copies on the census somehow equates to "hundreds available" I'd be glad to listen.

 

In the meantime, feel free to find even one available copy on the open market right now and send me the link.

 

I'll wait.... :whistle:

 

-J.

 

 

There's no way you'd be "glad to listen". You didn't listen to what anyone said in the Cerebus thread and you haven't listened to what people here have said.

 

As I posted earlier, if it's not on the census or reported on GPA it doesn't exist in your world.

 

Nobody ever said there are hundreds available. There's not. Just because it's not for sale, doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

 

You're the one that capped the number of existing copies at 100. In a matter of a few hours, we accounted for nearly 50% of that.

 

The collecting world is far bigger than these boards and GPA.

 

Don't say I didn't warn you, Jay. I'd quit now, if I were you.

 

That hole you're digging can only go down.

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The collecting world is far bigger than these boards and GPA.

It blows my mind how many people here don't seem to understand that.

 

Wild speculation and anecdotes!

I want to hug you again.
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The collecting world is far bigger than these boards and GPA.

It blows my mind how many people here don't seem to understand that.

 

Wild speculation and anecdotes!

I want to hug you again.

 

:whee:

Next year, show up for lunch :sumo:
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If someone can explain to me how such sparse sightings and how few copies brought to market at various auctions over the last 20 years, and only 30 or so graded and verified copies on the census somehow equates to "hundreds available" I'd be glad to listen.

 

In the meantime, feel free to find even one available copy on the open market right now and send me the link.

 

I'll wait.... :whistle:

 

-J.

 

 

There's no way you'd be "glad to listen". You didn't listen to what anyone said in the Cerebus thread and you haven't listened to what people here have said.

 

As I posted earlier, if it's not on the census or reported on GPA it doesn't exist in your world.

 

Nobody ever said there are hundreds available. There's not. Just because it's not for sale, doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

 

You're the one that capped the number of existing copies at 100. In a matter of a few hours, we accounted for nearly 50% of that.

 

The collecting world is far bigger than these boards and GPA.

 

...except, as with the cerebus thread, nobody is backing up any of what they're saying with actual data. Simply saying "nu-uh you're wrong because we just know better than you" is condescending BS. If you're so right, back it up with some hard facts and data. Or at least back up your "opinions" with something that might support them (as I have done). Simply saying "there's more than you say there are because I just know it, I just know it, and such and such I bet has a copy and look that guy over there, he has one, so you're wrong, so there." That isn't debate. Those are, once again, nothing but conclusory statements that are made with no supporting facts, and at best an anecdote or two.

 

When I say, hey guys I would be surprised if there were more than 100 copies because there's this many here and this many there and only X amount have been brought to auction over this many years, and Y amount have been raw versus slabbed, I am at least "trying" to back up what I have already called my "opinion". Your "opinions" are yours to have as well, but if you're going to try to "school" me at least bring some facts of your own to the table to back them up. Your "experience" and years in the hobby are no more significant or impressive than my own, so you don't necessarily automatically get points for that, and I don't give a hoot how many posts or years you have been on these boards. That doesn't necessarily make you an "expert" either. Bring me facts and data. That's the line I'm in and that's the language I speak.

 

-J.

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. The opinions of those who have disagreed with me have largely consisted of what collectors and people "might have done" or "might be doing" with this particular book. This is nothing but speculation.

 

Sorry, but you're wrong.

 

And, a better statistician than I could use the data you cite to prove it.

 

No need to rely on opinion.

 

My opinion is based on what can actually be observed in the market place, and the statistical sample therein. I am NOT basing my opinion on essentially unseen shadow inventory that cannot be proven either way that it even exists. You are suggesting that "it must exist, how can it not?". My response to that is: "Because the statistical sample size that we have seen suggests that it does not".

 

-J.

 

 

 

 

The census and "statistical sample" represents only a small portion of the larger picture. Drawing conclusions using that small portion is like suggesting the Mona Lisa is a painting of a cow, because the only portion you see is a small patch of brown dress.

 

It is necessarily flawed "methodology."

 

lol Not at all. Take Heritage for example. One of the preeminent auction houses for comic books (and other knick knacks). They have offered some of the best and rarest comic books from across all ages.

 

How many Sandman #8 editorials has Heritage auctioned in the last 15 years? Sandman 8, editorial, the most coveted and hardest to find of all the issues in the run?

 

3.

 

Two slabbed, and one raw.

 

That's it.

 

There's but one sample size for you that supports my position and tends to dispute yours. :insane:

 

I don't deny that there is a probability that another 200% of what we see might still be out there in the raw. I am simply saying that I highly doubt it is significantly more than that based on what we see (and don't see) coming to market.

 

-J.

 

 

Heritage specializes in vintage comics. They don't give a hoot about taking moderns in on consignment. They actually turn them down, unless it's a tag along with vintage books.

 

 

 

 

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...except, as with the cerebus thread, nobody is backing up any of what they're saying with actual data.

 

In the Cerebus thread, both Flying Donut and Dale Roberts (two big dealers) said they would price the Cerebus higher. You dismissed that.

 

Here, again, we have a "rare" book. In this thread, again you've dismissed what people have said. Schmidt said he has 5-6 copies of this book and saw 2 more at B'more. Since it's not on a website or GPA or Heritage, you don't consider it.

 

Yes, it may be anecdotal, but you dismiss it entirely. I've made some assumptions, I'll grant you that. But, it's not wild speculation grounded in nothing. It's an educated guess.

 

Is it crazy of me to think that if what Schmidt says is true (he has 5-6 copies) that there may be someone else (or more) that have multiple copies? Is it crazy for RMA to speculate that Neil Gaiman and Tori Amos each have a copy?

 

It's not "condescending BS" just because someone tells you you're wrong.

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. The opinions of those who have disagreed with me have largely consisted of what collectors and people "might have done" or "might be doing" with this particular book. This is nothing but speculation.

 

Sorry, but you're wrong.

 

And, a better statistician than I could use the data you cite to prove it.

 

No need to rely on opinion.

 

My opinion is based on what can actually be observed in the market place, and the statistical sample therein. I am NOT basing my opinion on essentially unseen shadow inventory that cannot be proven either way that it even exists. You are suggesting that "it must exist, how can it not?". My response to that is: "Because the statistical sample size that we have seen suggests that it does not".

 

-J.

 

 

 

 

The census and "statistical sample" represents only a small portion of the larger picture. Drawing conclusions using that small portion is like suggesting the Mona Lisa is a painting of a cow, because the only portion you see is a small patch of brown dress.

 

It is necessarily flawed "methodology."

 

lol Not at all. Take Heritage for example. One of the preeminent auction houses for comic books (and other knick knacks). They have offered some of the best and rarest comic books from across all ages.

 

How many Sandman #8 editorials has Heritage auctioned in the last 15 years? Sandman 8, editorial, the most coveted and hardest to find of all the issues in the run?

 

3.

 

Two slabbed, and one raw.

 

That's it.

 

There's but one sample size for you that supports my position and tends to dispute yours. :insane:

 

I don't deny that there is a probability that another 200% of what we see might still be out there in the raw. I am simply saying that I highly doubt it is significantly more than that based on what we see (and don't see) coming to market.

 

-J.

 

 

Heritage specializes in vintage comics. They don't give a hoot about taking moderns in on consignment. They actually turn them down, unless it's a tag along with vintage books.

 

 

 

 

Anecdotal. :P

 

Next!

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