Black Panther official movie thread (11/3/17) 1 1

[paperheart]

marching higher on the all time WW chart (unadjusted); passed Transformers:AoE on Tues, will pass Skyfall on Wed, LOTR: RotK & Transformers: DoM on Thurs and Cap:CW & Minions this weekend leaving IM3 the next to fall.

Edited March 14, 2018 by paperheart

[Bosco685]

 

[Gatsby77]

Hmm...not sure Black Panther will win out this weekend over Tomb Raider, but as of Tuesday Black Panther is pacing just $6 million behind The Last Jedi at the same point.

Will likely pull ahead of The Last Jedi by Monday.

[paperheart]

1 hour ago, Gatsby77 said:

Hmm...not sure Black Panther will win out this weekend over Tomb Raider, but as of Tuesday Black Panther is pacing just $6 million behind The Last Jedi at the same point.

Will likely pull ahead of The Last Jedi by Monday.

Saturday at the latest

[chezmtghut]

2 hours ago, paperheart said:

Saturday at the latest

More like Friday now that it's dropping under 20% daily this week. By Thursday it will reach approx. $578 mill, while the Last Jedi was $580,274,584. Unless it drops 50%+ on Friday, it should be pacing ahead.

BP day 26:

$5,167,907

28.1% / -17.4%

3,942 / $1,311

$570,900,740 / 26

SW:LJ day 26:

$2,368,317

32.2% / -69.9%

4,232 / $560

$576,851,360 / 26

[paperheart]

47 minutes ago, chezmtghut said:

More like Friday now that it's dropping under 20% daily this week. By Thursday it will reach approx. $578 mill, while the Last Jedi was $580,274,584. Unless it drops 50%+ on Friday, it should be pacing ahead.

BP day 26:

$5,167,907

28.1% / -17.4%

3,942 / $1,311

$570,900,740 / 26

SW:LJ day 26:

$2,368,317

32.2% / -69.9%

4,232 / $560

$576,851,360 / 26

by end of day Friday, w/ no problem.  Wed was down 4% from previous week. spring breaks kicking in big time.  if weekend is high $20's, then sinking Titanic is practically a given. question then becomes: could it possibly get to $700MM US?

[Bosco685]

 

 

[paperheart]

BP buries Tomb Raider (these write themselves):

From Deadline:

‘Black Panther’ Still Boss At The B.O. Running Toward $600M+; ‘Tomb Raider’ At $22M-$24M – Midday Update

 

Edited March 16, 2018 by paperheart

[Gatsby77]

At $578 million domestic as of yesterday, Black Panther has now passed Batman (1989) on the inflation-adjusted list.

(Batman made $251 million total domestically 29 years ago).

That was my marker, since 1989 was the summer of Batman, and instrumental in getting me --and many others -- into comics.

Wow.

 

[Bosco685]

36 minutes ago, paperheart said:

BP buries Tomb Raider (these write themselves):

From Deadline:

‘Black Panther’ Still Boss At The B.O. Running Toward $600M+; ‘Tomb Raider’ At $22M-$24M – Midday Update

"BP buries Tomb Raider"

[Bosco685]

31 minutes ago, Gatsby77 said:

At $578 million domestic as of yesterday, Black Panther has now passed Batman (1989) on the inflation-adjusted list.

(Batman made $251 million total domestically 29 years ago).

That was my marker, since 1989 was the summer of Batman, and instrumental in getting me --and many others -- into comics.

Wow.

Yup. Very impressive. Especially when you consider $251M domestic in 1989 is now $504.4M in 2018. It would sound like a rare movie that would top this at any time. And at least comparing domestic markets then and now, that's a little easier to do than international box office.

Although if you look at screen distribution counts from 1989 to 2017, there is a significant count difference.

Edited March 16, 2018 by Bosco685
domestic screen count details

[paperheart]

still waiting for the fake Twitter news BO impact

#14 after this weekend, 100 spots ahead of this waste of $400MM

114

Justice League

WB

$657.9

$229.0

34.8%

$428.9

65.2%

2017

16

Black Panther

BV

$1,126.5

$578.4

51.3%

$548.1

48.7%

2018

Edited March 16, 2018 by paperheart

[Bosco685]

54 minutes ago, paperheart said:

still waiting for the fake Twitter news BO impact

#14 after this weekend, 100 spots ahead of this waste of $400MM

114

Justice League

WB

$657.9

$229.0

34.8%

$428.9

65.2%

2017

16

Black Panther

BV

$1,126.5

$578.4

51.3%

$548.1

48.7%

2018

Itsy bitsy teenie weenie...yellow polka dot bikini.

 

[Chip Cataldo]

You two need to get a room. 

[Gatsby77]

11 hours ago, Bosco685 said:

Yup. Very impressive. Especially when you consider $251M domestic in 1989 is now $504.4M in 2018. It would sound like a rare movie that would top this at any time. And at least comparing domestic markets then and now, that's a little easier to do than international box office.

Although if you look at screen distribution counts from 1989 to 2017, there is a significant count difference.

This is a good chart, but the growth in screens from ~23,000 in 1989 to ~40,000 in 2018 is more than balanced out by the increase in the number of movies released annually.

Just ~250 per year in 1989 vs. 700+ now.

That increase in both movie studios and new film releases should make a single film's domination that much harder -- even if we ignore increased competition from streaming channels that mean folks go out to the movies less.

 

[bane]

9 hours ago, Chip Cataldo said:

You two need to get a room. 

Amen to that!

[Bosco685]

1 hour ago, Gatsby77 said:

This is a good chart, but the growth in screens from ~23,000 in 1989 to ~40,000 in 2018 is more than balanced out by the increase in the number of movies released annually.

Just ~250 per year in 1989 vs. 700+ now.

That increase in both movie studios and new film releases should make a single film's domination that much harder -- even if we ignore increased competition from streaming channels that mean folks go out to the movies less.

Not sure I 100% agree with less screens then = more distributed movies now. But I do agree, there is more competition in each genre of movie. Studios are still able to lock down a large grouping of theaters nonetheless. And let's remember, theaters today also offer IMAX, IMAX 3-D, 3-D and D-Box. So much higher ticket prices compared to the standard theaters of the 80's.

- Batman (1989): 2,194 domestic theaters.

- Black Panther: 4020 domestic theaters  (3,200 of those in 3D, 404 in IMAX, over 660 in premium large format, and over 200 D-Box locations): Disregarding all the different formats, + 1,826 theaters over Batman.

- Thor: Ragnarok: 4080 domestic theaters (3,400 were 3-D theaters, 381 were IMAX/IMAX 3D, 204 were D-Box): Disregarding all the different formats, + 1,886 theaters over Batman.

- Guardians of the Galaxy 2: 4,347 theaters (over 3,800 were in 3D, 388 in IMAX/IMAX 3D, 588 premium large-format, and 194 D-Box locations): Disregarding all the different formats, + 2,153 theaters over Batman.

 

 

[paperheart]

On the bright side we have Black Panther which is performing like a summer tentpole during the first quarter of the year, set to hit $607.4M this Sunday, and what many ultimately believe will be an end game of $650M stateside, $1.25 billion worldwide and now per our film finance sources will churn a total estimated profit of $461M after all ancillaries (ironically, a total that’s close to what some analysts believe Disney CEO Bob Iger could earn over four years if he hits all his performance goals in his compensation package).

That’s a sizeable chunk of change, one that’s higher than the profits of Avengers: Age of Ultron $382.3M and Captain America: Civil War‘s $193.4M, and we’re informed a lot of that has to do with the fresh face cast of Black Panther. There’s not a lot of heavy participations impacting Black Panther‘s bottom line in the Robert Downey Jr. or Joss Whedon Avengers sense, nor is it at the level of a Fast & Furious cast where its top players reportedly earn $0.40 of every $1 of profit after breakeven.  Note Disney did not generate these Black Panther profit estimates for us. 

Half a billion in profit    Oh, and those end game numbers  are too low.  After a $29MM weekend, this thing is going to do a hell of a lot more than an additional $43MM US.  Won't beat but will threaten Pacific Rim next weekend.

[Bosco685]

16 minutes ago, paperheart said:

On the bright side we have Black Panther which is performing like a summer tentpole during the first quarter of the year, set to hit $607.4M this Sunday, and what many ultimately believe will be an end game of $650M stateside, $1.25 billion worldwide and now per our film finance sources will churn a total estimated profit of $461M after all ancillaries (ironically, a total that’s close to what some analysts believe Disney CEO Bob Iger could earn over four years if he hits all his performance goals in his compensation package).

That’s a sizeable chunk of change, one that’s higher than the profits of Avengers: Age of Ultron $382.3M and Captain America: Civil War‘s $193.4M, and we’re informed a lot of that has to do with the fresh face cast of Black Panther. There’s not a lot of heavy participations impacting Black Panther‘s bottom line in the Robert Downey Jr. or Joss Whedon Avengers sense, nor is it at the level of a Fast & Furious cast where its top players reportedly earn $0.40 of every $1 of profit after breakeven.  Note Disney did not generate these Black Panther profit estimates for us. 

Half a billion in profit    Oh, and those end game numbers  are too low.  After a $29MM weekend, this thing is going to do a hell of a lot more than an additional $43MM US.  Won't beat but will threaten Pacific Rim next weekend.

DEADLINE: ‘Black Panther’ Poised For $460M+ In Profit; ‘I Can Only Imagine’ Surprises – Box Office Update

Gotta give credit where credit is due.

[Gatsby77]

1 hour ago, Bosco685 said:

Not sure I 100% agree with less screens then = more distributed movies now. But I do agree, there is more competition in each genre of movie. Studios are still able to lock down a large grouping of theaters nonetheless. And let's remember, theaters today also offer IMAX, IMAX 3-D, 3-D and D-Box. So much higher ticket prices compared to the standard theaters of the 80's.

- Batman (1989): 2,194 domestic theaters.

- Black Panther: 4020 domestic theaters  (3,200 of those in 3D, 404 in IMAX, over 660 in premium large format, and over 200 D-Box locations): Disregarding all the different formats, + 1,826 theaters over Batman.

- Thor: Ragnarok: 4080 domestic theaters (3,400 were 3-D theaters, 381 were IMAX/IMAX 3D, 204 were D-Box): Disregarding all the different formats, + 1,886 theaters over Batman.

- Guardians of the Galaxy 2: 4,347 theaters (over 3,800 were in 3D, 388 in IMAX/IMAX 3D, 588 premium large-format, and 194 D-Box locations): Disregarding all the different formats, + 2,153 theaters over Batman.

 

 

Granted, but my point means that every movie today faces far more competition just based on the sheer number of releases.

Perfect example of this was the total domination of Beverly Hills Cop back in 1984-1985.

Beverly Hills Cop topped out at just over 2,000 screens -- but was a ridiculous hit for other reasons -- including that fewer movies released per year = less competition.

It debuted in early December, and went on to be the # 1 movie in America for 13 straight weekends. As in, it was # 1 at the U.S. box office from Dec. 7, 1984 through March 3, 1985.

It was also Rated R.

It only dropped out of the top 10 in mid-June, its 29th week of release.

That would _never_ happen today -- incredibly more screens be damned.

Why?

Because there are far more movies being released than there were 30 years ago.

Most films are lucky to stay in theaters for 13 weeks, let alone rank at # 1 for 13 weeks of a six month+ run.

And yeah -- at just $616.5 million domestic in adjusted terms, Black Panther will likely beat Beverly Hills Cop at the box office -- selling more tickets.

But even so, it's hard to argue that Black Panther is as dominant culturally or as much of a cinematic phenomenon in 2018 as Beverly Hills Cop was in 1984-85.

Edited March 17, 2018 by Gatsby77