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Black Panther official movie thread (11/3/17)
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'Black Panther' Packs Theater for Historic Showing in Saudi Arabia

 

 

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Black Panther officially added another achievement to its very long list today. The Marvel Cinematic Universe film was the first film to receive a theatrical screening in Saudi Arabia in 35-years and the seats were packed for this momentous occasion.

 

Saudi Arabia began observing very conservative regulations as part of its growing push towards religious values back in 1979. This lead to movie theater closures in the early 1980s, but back in December, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced that the ban on theatrical movies was being lifted. Today, that lift happened with an AMC-branded theater in Riyadh screening Black Panther to a full house.

 

As Saudi Arabia has nearly 23 million citizens under the age of 30, the nation could end up a massive foreign market for movies with some estimating annual revenue around $1 billion. This would make Saudi Arabia among the top 10 theatrical foreign markets. AMC Entertainment is looking to open up 40 theaters there within the year and is planning for a total of 100 within the next five years.

 

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What's cool about Black Panther is he is considered like Deadpool cool now. 

Who would have thought 5 years ago that both Black Panther and Deadpool would be considered hotter IPs than Superman and both will have a faster track at getting future sequels?

Amazing surprise hits both Black Panther and Deadpool were.

 

 

 

 

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17 hours ago, Gatsby77 said:

And by this time next week it will have surpassed The Dark Knight on the inflation-adjusted domestic list.

Think about that -- as superb as The Dark Knight was, more people will ultimately have seen Black Panther.

Does the inflation adjusted box office total give you something that relates specifically to tickets sold in 2009?  I didn't think it worked like that but if that's true it might give you more people that saw Black Panther "at a theater"....beyond that limitation if true, no. :D 

You asked me to think about it :nyah:

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15 minutes ago, bababooey said:

Does the inflation adjusted box office total give you something that relates specifically to tickets sold in 2009?

It's the closest comparative measurement we have for number of tickets sold since studios don't report that.  It's not all exact since it factors in the normal rate of inflation as opposed to actual changes in ticket prices, but it's far closer than comparing unadjusted box office totals.

Edited by fantastic_four
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24 minutes ago, fantastic_four said:

It's the closest comparative measurement we have for number of tickets sold since studios don't report that.  It's not all exact since it factors in the normal rate of inflation as opposed to actual changes in ticket prices, but it's far closer than comparing unadjusted box office totals.

Comparing modern movies to more recent older movies via inflation-adjusted USD is a straightforward way of doing this. Trying to accomplish this through ticket counts is just not going to work, as it is going to be guesses upon guesses.

1) How many IMAX theaters would they have had in 2008 compared to 2018's count?

2) How many 3-D theaters would they have had in 2008 compared to 2018's count?

3) How many Premium Large Format (PLF) theaters would have have had in 2008 compared to 2018's count?

4) How many D-Box theaters would have have had in 2008 compared to 2018's count?

These high-dollar theaters can add immensely to a box office take.

  • Black Panther theater distribution: 4,020 theaters, with over 3,200 of those in 3-D, 404 in IMAX, over 660 in PLF, and over 200 D-Box locations.
  • The Dark Knight theater distribution: 4,366 theaters, with over 94 IMAX theaters and an overall 9,200 screens in the United States and Canada.

So guesstimating on ticket sales in 2008 in theaters that didn't even exist back then - but someone feels good the number would be the same - is a big statistical leap of faith.

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1 hour ago, fantastic_four said:

It's the closest comparative measurement we have for number of tickets sold since studios don't report that.  It's not all exact since it factors in the normal rate of inflation as opposed to actual changes in ticket prices, but it's far closer than comparing unadjusted box office totals.

Actually (as I and others have shown in this thread), BoxOfficeMojo's calculations aren't really based on the normal rate of inflation in the U.S., but rather the actual inflation rate of movie ticket prices.

And this rate of change in movie ticket prices does price in things like the expansion of 3-D and IMAX screens.

Still, it's far from precise -- especially for movies from the 1970s-1990s, when record-keeping on exact weekly takes was less precise (ironically, films released from the 1930s-1950s had more precise accounting than those of the 1980s-1990s).

And, as BoxOfficeMojo itself notes, their calculations can't be used to compare relative popularity, as it could be thrown off by externalities:

"Since these figures are based on average ticket prices they cannot take into effect other factors that may affect a movie's overall popularity and success. Such factors include but are not limited to: increases or decreases in the population, the total number of movies in the marketplace at a given time, economic conditions that may help or hurt the entertainment industry as a whole (e.g., war), the relative price of a movie ticket to other commodities in a given year, competition with other related medium such as the invention and advancements of Television, VHS, DVD, the Internet, etc…

Still, this method best compares "apples to apples" when examining the history of box office earnings."


Here's why I trust the rankings:

1) It's the best (and most widely-used) data I've seen comparing relative movie performance over time. Given that the industry itself uses real-time data reported to BoxOfficeMojo, it stands to reason that the inflation-adjusted rankings would also be trusted.

2) To the extent that it's inaccurate, it's inaccurate across-the-board.

Think of a scale that's off by two pounds. It's still useful in comparing your weight gain or weight loss over a year, because all of the measurements would be equally off.

 

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3 minutes ago, Gatsby77 said:

Actually (as I and others have shown in this thread), BoxOfficeMojo's calculations aren't really based on the normal rate of inflation in the U.S., but rather the actual inflation rate of movie ticket prices.

And this rate of change in movie ticket prices does price in things like the expansion of 3-D and IMAX screens.

Still, it's far from precise -- especially for movies from the 1970s-1990s, when record-keeping on exact weekly takes was less precise (ironically, films released from the 1930s-1950s had more precise accounting than those of the 1980s-1990s).

And, as BoxOfficeMojo itself notes, their calculations can't be used to compare relative popularity, as it could be thrown off by externalities:

"Since these figures are based on average ticket prices they cannot take into effect other factors that may affect a movie's overall popularity and success. Such factors include but are not limited to: increases or decreases in the population, the total number of movies in the marketplace at a given time, economic conditions that may help or hurt the entertainment industry as a whole (e.g., war), the relative price of a movie ticket to other commodities in a given year, competition with other related medium such as the invention and advancements of Television, VHS, DVD, the Internet, etc…

Still, this method best compares "apples to apples" when examining the history of box office earnings."


Here's why I trust the rankings:

1) It's the best (and most widely-used) data I've seen comparing relative movie performance over time. Given that the industry itself uses real-time data reported to BoxOfficeMojo, it stands to reason that the inflation-adjusted rankings would also be trusted.

2) To the extent that it's inaccurate, it's inaccurate across-the-board.

Think of a scale that's off by two pounds. It's still useful in comparing your weight gain or weight loss over a year, because all of the measurements would be equally off.

 

And yet even Box Office Mojo, who I also very much reference and appreciate, stops at Domestic Box Office adjusted USD because it recognizes statistically guesstimating International Box Office matched growth between years gets even trickier.

- Having to account for advanced theater growth across each country

- Having to account for the standard theater growth across each country

Even with Domestic Box Office adjusted ticket prices to account for inflation, the range can vary. And not always to the benefit of the older movie.

- The Dark Knight 2008 domestic total: $534,858,444

- The Dark Knight 2018 Box Office Mojo estimates: $683,575,000

- The Dark Knight adjusted inflation USD (no ticket guesstimates): $619,945,212.72

Trying to factor in advanced theater ticket sales at an economic time where it may or may not have even taken off due to technology expenses is not even close to reality. And in this case, Black Panther going by actual tickets sold but converted to modern USD passed The Dark Knight already. That's just the facts.

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