THOR: RAGNAROK official thread (7/28/2017) 5 5

[comic_memories]

6 hours ago, Bosco685 said:

So just short of a billion dollars by $158,224,880. There's next weekend.

your funny...  I would join in your pettiness but I have better things to do

[Bosco685]

6 minutes ago, comic_memories said:

your funny...  I would join in your pettiness but I have better things to do

Hey, you were the funny guy with the images. Act like that, you receive the same treatment. Look to have a discussion, that's different.

[comic_memories]

4 minutes ago, Bosco685 said:

Hey, you were the funny guy with the images. Act like that, you receive the same treatment. Look to have a discussion, that's different.

my images were jokes not personal attacks

Edited December 18, 2017 by comic_memories

[Bosco685]

Just now, comic_memories said:

my images were jokes not personal attacks,  off

Uh-huh. Bye bye.

[Bosco685]

Disney starting the process of warming up the awards judges and Academy on some well-deserved awards.

[mattn792]

Surtur for best supporting actor!

[Bosco685]

Ragnarok was slightly higher internationally. Feels like it has a shot at reaching $850M.

[Bosco685]

Like other movies that had a period of a few weeks with limited competition, Ragnarok is now experiencing a slowdown due to multiple new movies. It is now questionable if it will reach $850M.

[piper]

1 hour ago, Bosco685 said:

Like other movies that had a period of a few weeks with limited competition, Ragnarok is now experiencing a slowdown due to multiple new movies. It is now questionable if it will reach $850M.

I always find it interesting how some movies do better internationally.  This movie is a good example.

[Bosco685]

43 minutes ago, piper said:

I always find it interesting how some movies do better internationally.  This movie is a good example.

Although most movies lean higher with the International Box Office category due to sheer size, all three produced by Marvel were very strong overseas. Though with Homecoming and Ragnarok, you see it even stronger than Guardians 2.

[CBT]

2 hours ago, Bosco685 said:

Like other movies that had a period of a few weeks with limited competition, Ragnarok is now experiencing a slowdown due to multiple new movies. It is now questionable if it will reach $850M.

 

Strongly disagree about $850, using actual numbers:

 

Week 6:

Guardians made 9.7 million Domestic

Ragnarok making 8.5 Million Domestic.

 

Remaining Income to end of run

Guardians ran for another 14 weeks collecting a total of  19.9 Million

Ragnarok maintaining the same rate of decline would make 17.4 Million over the next 14 weeks

 

That would bring its total to over $860 Million, without even counting foreign income, the place where it is out pacing Guardians. 

All things equal Ragnarok SHOULD end slightly higher than Guardians and make a run at $870 Million.

As we all know, Ragnarok is facing stronger competition from bigger movies (ie Star Wars), which could and should decrease its income stream faster than Guardians.

However, more people go to see movies during the Holidays than in early fall, so the available audience is bigger.

But, with the other big movies out, it probably wont stay in theatres as long.

 

 

Actual Numbers based analysis:

Ragnarok's final total will be about whether larger holidays audience can make up for stiffer competition, and how quickly its pulled out of theatres.

It should be at $850 by Christmas, and virtually no scenario sees it struggling to get to $850 as a final total.

It's high side estimate would be around $870, and its low $860ish.

 

It has an outside shot at passing Guardians still.

Edited December 22, 2017 by CBT

[CBT]

Follow up/Update,

Week 7-20 Guardians made $12 million foreign,

using the current ratio, Ragnarok at the same rate would earn $13.95 in the same time period

 

So if Ragnarok perfectly tracked Guardians from here on out it would pull in over the next 14 weeks:

Domestic: $17.4 Million

Foreign: $13.95 Million

Total Remaining on a perfect track to Guardians and current ratios:  $31.35 Million

For a Final Total: $874 Million

 

So I would say MAXIMUM final total is $875 and likely total will be around $860.

[Bosco685]

9 minutes ago, CBT said:

Actual Numbers based analysis:

Ragnarok's final total will be about whether larger holidays audience can make up for stiffer competition, and how quickly its pulled out of theatres.

It should be at $850 by Christmas, and virtually no scenario sees it struggling to get to $850 as a final total.

It's high side estimate would be around $870, and its low $860ish.

 

It has an outside shot at passing Guardians still.

'Actual Numbers based analysis'?

It started dropping below the $1M/weekday about two weeks ago, but has had steady $500K/day average for those two weeks. The weekend results has been in the $2m (+) range due to Disney maintaining a high theater count still.

There's no 'false readings' here. It may break $850M and continue on. But the weekday dips point to just below $850M, unless Disney keeps those theaters dedicated.

[Bosco685]

By Week 5 when Disney had 3,148 theaters dedicated to Ragnarok, the weekly run rate had dipped to an average of $750K/daily. By Week 7, it is maintaining 1,895 theaters and the weekday average is $450K/day.

Guardians 2 by Week 5 was 3,871 theaters dedicated, and by Week 7 held at 1,813. But the average weekday for Guardians by Week 7 was $750K/day.

So where Guardians had a higher theater distribution early on, Disney is trying to keep a higher theater count in the later weeks for Ragnarok. That is where it is trying to break past $850M.

[AnthonyTheAbyss]

$850M vs $860M....about 1%

 

I'm calling $855M which means I'm going to be more accurate than one of you two

[paperheart]

15 minutes ago, CBT said:

Follow up/Update,

Week 7-20 Guardians made $12 million foreign,

using the current ratio, Ragnarok at the same rate would earn $13.95 in the same time period

 

So if Ragnarok perfectly tracked Guardians from here on out it would pull in over the next 14 weeks:

Domestic: $17.4 Million

Foreign: $13.95 Million

Total Remaining on a perfect track to Guardians and current ratios:  $31.35 Million

For a Final Total: $874 Million

 

So I would say MAXIMUM final total is $875 and likely total will be around $860.

Thor only made $1MM internationally last weekend, so you can deduct $11-12MM from your international estimate

[Bosco685]

22 minutes ago, AnthonyTheAbyss said:

$850M vs $860M....about 1%

 

I'm calling $855M which means I'm going to be more accurate than one of you two

Out of the two movies, I have to say I enjoyed Ragnarok more. Not to take away from Guardians 2, which was also entertaining. It just depended on too many jokes with that one, and just enough with Ragnarok. Odd.

[CBT]

16 hours ago, Bosco685 said:

'Actual Numbers based analysis'?

It started dropping below the $1M/weekday about two weeks ago, but has had steady $500K/day average for those two weeks. The weekend results has been in the $2m (+) range due to Disney maintaining a high theater count still.

There's no 'false readings' here. It may break $850M and continue on. But the weekday dips point to just below $850M, unless Disney keeps those theaters dedicated.

I gave you the actual numbers, and a direct comparison between Guardians at Week 6, and Ragnarok at Week 6, and where Guardians finished.

=============================

DOMESTIC MARKET

=============================

Guardians 2 on Week 6 Made:

$9,751,843

Went on for 14 more weeks to pull in another 19.9 Million

Ragnarok on Week 6 Made:

8,529,056

If Ragnarok went on another 14 weeks, following the same ratio, it would pull in another 17.4 Million

 

 

=============================

FOREIGN MARKET

=============================

Guardians made $12 million foreign from weeks 7-20.

Ragnarok if it continued its ratio of current foreign earnings relative to Guardians would make $13.95 million

 

 

===================================

Summary

===================================

You can discuss why it wont maintain those ratios (which I did), but the numbers are the numbers.

Guardians made $32 Million dollars over weeks 7 through 20.

If Ragnarok were to last another 14 weeks (running until March lol, not likely), it would only have to make 20% of what Guardians did, to make the $6.3 needed to hit $850.  If it makes Half of what guardians did, it will hit $860.

 

Edited December 23, 2017 by CBT

[CBT]

16 hours ago, paperheart said:

Thor only made $1MM internationally last weekend, so you can deduct $11-12MM from your international estimate

UHM... My International estimate was never stated to be 11-12M??

I said IF Ragnarok followed Guardians using the current ratios, it would finish with $875(it wont), and as you quoted me, I said $860ish is the likely total. 

If you take your $12MM off of the $875 it would get "tracking Guardians declines" , that's $863, and I said likely around $860 (probably struggling to reach it), which included trimming back the domestic track also.

$850 is all but assured, $860 will be tough, but as I said:

 

It will be increased movie goers for the holidays   vs   shorter run in theatres & better competition

 

Domestic tends to hold stronger longer, and Guardians did its winning there, versus Ragnarok beating it in foreign, likely Ragnarok can't catch Guardians, but there is still an outside chance.

At least it didnt let DC crack into the top 3

Edited December 23, 2017 by CBT

[CBT]

One positive thing for Ragnarok, the week Star Wars came out (Week 7), it only fell by $210 per theatre.  So it's audience per screening barely budged, despite the biggest movie of the year coming out.

Now, it was shown in 1,152 LESS theatres, but the income PER matters for hanging around longer.

Another interesting note, while dropping 1,152 theatres is a lot, Guardians actually dropped more, or 1,371 theatres, from week 6 to 7. (Though it was making significantly more per theatre, it took about two weeks longer to settle in to a stable amount per)