MGsimba77 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 7 hours ago, piper said: It’s going up too fast and can’t see these increases being sustainable. I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like this market before. The crazy thing is that it’s occurring with all sorts of books not just XM1. How does this end? Long periods of flat prices with few available books for sale or a major price correction? I was focusing on University during the 90’s comic crash, but don’t see any parallels with today. These are all blue chip books ... If you look at the ASM 300 example - a book that's always had the highest or close to highest census count and always sold in high frequency. You have an example of a looong time of stagnant flat valuation period between the start of cgc and ~ spring summer of 2017. There was a brief spike in 2006 from Spider-man 3 but a minor one. It just reverted back to 2005 after that and stayed there. In 2017 it started going bananas then reverted but only about a third of what it gained after movie excitement died down. It kept the bulk of those gains after 2017 then last year took off again with everything else. Just look at the GPA sales chart for any grade and you'll see this clearly. The point is there's never been anything resembling a "crash" in the >20 year history of cgc data despite the census explosion. Reversion yes but crash?...no. Wherever there's an example of a crash it's always related to either the census filling out or movie hype dying down. In every example those books have regained their value in time. A good example of this is high grade X-men keys during the time Fox was pumping out movies. GSXM 9.8 took a beating 10 years ago only to surpass its previous highs 2 years ago. zosocane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post zosocane Posted February 23, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted February 23, 2021 (edited) On 2/21/2021 at 11:08 PM, piper said: What’s driving this exponential growth? We’re not talking about $500 books anymore... Disney+'s Marvel TV shows. Look at how high-quality (and great) Wanda-Viz is. Total game-changer. And ... a little "free" stimulus money and forced savings because COVID closed the bars and cancelled trips to Disney or Cancun doesn't hurt, either. Many hobbies are being rediscovered and reevaluated during this unique time. Edited February 23, 2021 by zosocane jcjames, B2D327, Jasonmorris1000000 and 2 others 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger66 Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 On 2/21/2021 at 10:01 PM, piper said: Yikes. I bought my 5.5 copy for approximately $900 a few years ago. And I know a guy who paid 12 cents for his copy fresh off a newsstand in lower Manhattan and another guy who paid $5 in 1968 at a garage sale in Spokane, Washington and a gal who paid $150 for her copy at a Phil Seuling convention in the 70s and then this guy who paid $900......... --- and so it goes ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zosocane Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 20 hours ago, MGsimba77 said: The point is there's never been anything resembling a "crash" in the >20 year history of cgc data despite the census explosion. Reversion yes but crash?...no. Yep. I'm not worried. This decade of the 20s will be solid for the hobby and, once again, principal thanks goes to Marvel Studios. (Stop and consider, Agatha Harkness is (thus far) the chief antagonist in a TV series watched by millions of people -- many of them way, way younger than any of us. How effing cool is that?) Worst that will happen is a period of downward correction of 10% to 20% (similar to what we saw the last half of 2019 after Endgame ended), followed by a plateauing ... and then followed by more, inevitable growth. How often have we seen this the last several decades? Mind you, i'm talking about Gold, Silver, early Bronze material. That is where the quality, and reduced supply, and perpetual demand, are at. Jasonmorris1000000, B2D327 and MGsimba77 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the blob Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 21 hours ago, MGsimba77 said: If you look at the ASM 300 example - a book that's always had the highest or close to highest census count and always sold in high frequency. You have an example of a looong time of stagnant flat valuation period between the start of cgc and ~ spring summer of 2017. There was a brief spike in 2006 from Spider-man 3 but a minor one. It just reverted back to 2005 after that and stayed there. In 2017 it started going bananas then reverted but only about a third of what it gained after movie excitement died down. It kept the bulk of those gains after 2017 then last year took off again with everything else. Just look at the GPA sales chart for any grade and you'll see this clearly. The point is there's never been anything resembling a "crash" in the >20 year history of cgc data despite the census explosion. Reversion yes but crash?...no. Wherever there's an example of a crash it's always related to either the census filling out or movie hype dying down. In every example those books have regained their value in time. A good example of this is high grade X-men keys during the time Fox was pumping out movies. GSXM 9.8 took a beating 10 years ago only to surpass its previous highs 2 years ago. i think it is going to depend on how many folks buying these books are long haul collectors or whether they were looking for a quick in and out. if you are financially stable and overpaid for your ASM 122 9.8 15 years ago there is no mad rush to sell it off. You wait. The folks who tended to buy these books probably have a much higher level of financial stability than your average joe. But if folks who recently got into comics thinking they'd make 25% yearly gains decide they're not making them pull out, and if there are actually a lot of these people, maybe we have a problem. PKJ and KCOComics 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGsimba77 Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 2 hours ago, the blob said: i think it is going to depend on how many folks buying these books are long haul collectors or whether they were looking for a quick in and out. if you are financially stable and overpaid for your ASM 122 9.8 15 years ago there is no mad rush to sell it off. You wait. The folks who tended to buy these books probably have a much higher level of financial stability than your average joe. But if folks who recently got into comics thinking they'd make 25% yearly gains decide they're not making them pull out, and if there are actually a lot of these people, maybe we have a problem. Very good point. If there is infact some new crop of buyers out there who are the drivers behind these gains last year? I think everyone on these boards would love some clarity on who they are if they exist? Are they serious hobbyists or just some "drive by" investors looking for quick results? I'll guess mostly people interested in the hobby with a small mix of quick flip types. All we can do is ponder. Any clarity on that would help assuage the valid concerns of too much too soon. I like to be optimistic but some of these books have gone bonkers in such little time you can't help but to worry a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordysnordy Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 On 2/22/2021 at 9:20 AM, piper said: It’s going up too fast and can’t see these increases being sustainable. I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like this market before. The crazy thing is that it’s occurring with all sorts of books not just XM1. How does this end? Long periods of flat prices with few available books for sale or a major price correction? I was focusing on University during the 90’s comic crash, but don’t see any parallels with today. These are all blue chip books ... When the stimulus checks end, so will this madness. The crazy upswing in prices IMO is horrible for our hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chillax23 Posted February 23, 2021 Share Posted February 23, 2021 I am more concerned about Bronze Age books like GSXM1 popping like they have versus X-Men 1 ........ just based on the abundance of Bronze Age graded books like GSXM1, but perhaps the demand is there and valid ..... who knows, it is quite interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweet Lou 14 Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 1 hour ago, Chillax23 said: I am more concerned about Bronze Age books like GSXM1 popping like they have versus X-Men 1 ........ just based on the abundance of Bronze Age graded books like GSXM1, but perhaps the demand is there and valid ..... who knows, it is quite interesting. I can imagine the very top-tier books in each era (GSX #1 and Hulk #181 for Bronze, ASM #300 for modern) defying gravity because they have become "grails" for newer generations of collectors. After that, I'm not so sure. Inhuman Fiend, drbanner and Chillax23 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolverineX Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 0.5 Strange tales 110 just sold for $1050. That's certainly something. Callaway29, zosocane and silversurfer275 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweet Lou 14 Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, Wolverinex said: 0.5 Strange tales 110 just sold for $1050. That's certainly something. Was the cover detached? Sounds like a job for Paste Pot Pete. BlowUpTheMoon and nmtg9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolverineX Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, Sweet Lou 14 said: Was the cover detached? Sounds like a job for Paste Pot Pete. Lol, can you imagine what would happen to the book if Paste pot Pete showed up in the MCU? Btw, I am about to post this on bronze heating up thread but Cerebus 1 9.4 just sold for $29,130 on comiclink! tonight. ThothAmon, PKJ, silversurfer275 and 1 other 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B2D327 Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 4 hours ago, Wolverinex said: Lol, can you imagine what would happen to the book if Paste pot Pete showed up in the MCU? Btw, I am about to post this on bronze heating up thread but Cerebus 1 9.4 just sold for $29,130 on comiclink! tonight. I’ll take half of that for my 4.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordysnordy Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 If you watched last night's CL auction, it seems almost every ASM book is on fire. Some really, really strong prices across the board. jimjum12, MatterEaterLad and zosocane 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KirbyJack Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 9 hours ago, Wolverinex said: Lol, can you imagine what would happen to the book if Paste pot Pete showed up in the MCU? I've been an advocate of Strange Tales 104 for decades. ThothAmon and Jasonmorris1000000 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolverineX Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 9 minutes ago, KirbyJack said: I've been an advocate of Strange Tales 104 for decades. Peter Petruski is a force to be reckoned with . I will be sorely disappointed if he make an appearance with Dr. Doom in the subsequent FF movies... KirbyJack 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WolverineX Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Get Jeremy Irons in the role to add some gravitas and you got yourself the first Oscar nominated MCU movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post KirbyJack Posted February 24, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted February 24, 2021 The name "Paste Pot Pete" was an inside joke; a nod to Harvey Kurtzman. silversurfer275, WolverineX, HighVoltage and 3 others 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post the blob Posted February 24, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted February 24, 2021 15 hours ago, Jordysnordy said: When the stimulus checks end, so will this madness. The crazy upswing in prices IMO is horrible for our hobby. $1400 checks don't explain it Cosmic_Shel, jimjum12, zosocane and 2 others 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the blob Posted February 24, 2021 Share Posted February 24, 2021 Just now, the blob said: $1400 checks don't explain it Significantly reduced spending on social / leisure activities is a much larger number for your typical collector with $. I just hired someone to supervise my kids remote learning because it was too distracting, but before that I was saving $400-800 a month on childcare / after school. I won't be spending $4k on summer camp regardless. silverseeker and WolverineX 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
