Beginning of Bull Market for Comic Books

[slym2none]

Holy mess, it has been almost 5 full decades from the 1970's until now...

 

We're getting old, Rocky!

 

 

I was talking about from the mid-60's. so there's your 5 decades. Two separate thoughts.

 

(thumbs u

 

 

 

-slym

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

I mean, how much should a VG copy of ASM 135 really go for? Probably not big money, or we'd all be retiring on the proceeds from a few longboxes.

 

That value of a VG ASM #135 isn't the point...it's the value of ASM #135 relative to #129, over the course of the last 15 years or so. The value of keys has vastly, vastly outperformed even the value of semi-keys, and if it's not a key...throw it out (unless it MIGHT become a key, then hoard it.)

 

#129 is easy to chart: since 2002, there has been a steady and inexorable march up, in average price, in every grade except 9.8 (which grade operates under different rules altogether.)

 

#135? Flat.

 

New Mutants #87? Up, up, up. $300 for a 9.8 is the "new normal."

 

#88? Flat. $50 was the last sale, and no one cares enough to list one for sale.

 

And this is true up and down, from 1961 to now.

 

It's madness.

 

[Hamlet]

What is their pricing like on the non-keys though? It seems like every LCS or convention I go to has these non-key books priced at multiples of the price at which demand for them exists. That isn't new though. I go to conventions and I see books that have been carted around for at least five years. When they are priced reasonably, these books sell, whether it was 5 years ago or today.

 

I look at my log of purchases over the last five years, and I see a small upward trend in what I have been paying, not a downtrend. Granted, I'm one guy in one market collecting single copies for my personal collection, but I also buy duplicates of this stuff when I believe it is a real good value.

 

I think the issue is that they look a lot cheaper compared to the keys, because the keys have exploded, while the non-key market is pretty flat.

 

 

It's not a matter of these books "crashing" per say but the demand for them appears to be dropping like a rock. I just hit up 3 stores thru out Ohio and each of them was completely out of anything but the bottom tier hot books. Each of them had boxes and boxes and boxes of common books including a bunch of nice Silver-Age books which appeared to be collecting some serious dust. I'd think 5 years ago people would be hitting the boxes in hopes of finding a nice looking common book but now the shop owners hear is "show me the keys" or so they tell me.

[Hamlet]

Sure. I just don't think the madness is that the non-keys are undervalued. I think the speculation in the keys is where the market is crazy.

 

Most comics should not really command big money. If you are just looking for mid-grade books, there are tons and tons of them. Supply is greater than demand for the vast bulk of them, unless prices are low. Why would we expect most comics to appreciate over time?

 

Why would NM 88 not be a dollar box item? There are plenty of them around, and who is really that interested in it? Is there a reason to be interested in it at a premium price?

 

The crazy thing to me is that there are now a huge number of speculators looking at key comics as an appreciating investment. They don't own one copy for their collection, they own dozens as an "investment". I wonder how many people own multiple copies of hot keys as an "investment", simply because they are "hot"? I bet that number is a lot higher number than five years ago.

 

It's just a different manifestation of the 90s speculation of buying 20 copies of the latest hot book. It's just that now it is 20 copies of some first appearance no one bothered to care about for 30 years. I suspect that we are going to re-learn that books that many people are hoarding in large numbers can go back down as fast as they go up, and that it is as true for FF36/45/46/52 as it was for X-men 268.

 

 

That value of a VG ASM #135 isn't the point...it's the value of ASM #135 relative to #129, over the course of the last 15 years or so. The value of keys has vastly, vastly outperformed even the value of semi-keys, and if it's not a key...throw it out (unless it MIGHT become a key, then hoard it.)

 

#129 is easy to chart: since 2002, there has been a steady and inexorable march up, in average price, in every grade except 9.8 (which grade operates under different rules altogether.)

 

#135? Flat.

 

New Mutants #87? Up, up, up. $300 for a 9.8 is the "new normal."

 

#88? Flat. $50 was the last sale, and no one cares enough to list one for sale.

 

And this is true up and down, from 1961 to now.

 

It's madness.

[newshane]

.

 

Stock up on your Morbius keys now, folks.

 

 

 

With the vampire craze a few years back, I'm really shocked that nothing was done with Morbius. I think it would be a fun movie if they kept it really dark and horrific.

[RockMyAmadeus]

Sure. I just don't think the madness is that the non-keys are undervalued. I think the speculation in the keys is where the market is crazy.

 

I agree completely. But they are two halves of a same whole. The gap between the "OMG IT'S A KEY KEY KEY I MUST HAVE IT OMGWTFBBQROFLMAO!!!!" and "whose first appearance is it? No one's? Pass" has widened to the point of madness.

 

Most comics should not really command big money. If you are just looking for mid-grade books, there are tons and tons of them. Supply is greater than demand for the vast bulk of them, unless prices are low. Why would we expect most comics to appreciate over time?

 

Why would NM 88 not be a dollar box item? There are plenty of them around, and who is really that interested in it? Is there a reason to be interested in it at a premium price?

 

Because it's the second appearance of the character. Back in the olden days, people collected second appearances (and subsequent appearances) almost as fervently as first appearances. Plenty around? Relative to what? It was on the verge of being cancelled, with no more than maybe 150,000 copies extant, at best.

 

Remember: the madness for any and all LOSH appearances was so extreme that Overstreet listed the first NINETEEN (19) appearances (Superman #155, for those wondering) in order.

 

Now, you'd be hard pressed to get a premium for their *fourth* appearance (Superboy #86) over surrounding issues.

 

The crazy thing to me is that there are now a huge number of speculators looking at key comics as an appreciating investment. They don't own one copy for their collection, they own dozens as an "investment". I wonder how many people own multiple copies of hot keys as an "investment", simply because they are "hot"? I bet that number is a lot higher number than five years ago.

 

It's just a different manifestation of the 90s speculation of buying 20 copies of the latest hot book. It's just that now it is 20 copies of some first appearance no one bothered to care about for 30 years. I suspect that we are going to re-learn that books that many people are hoarding in large numbers can go back down as fast as they go up, and that it is as true for FF36/45/46/52 as it was for X-men 268.

 

It's completely different from the 90's, because of the reasons you just stated. It was easy to buy 20 copies of "the latest hot book." Just go to a store, or a couple of them (no shortage of stores then), and buy whatever you wanted. If one store didn't have it, other stores were bound to. Immediate sellouts were very, very rare.

 

Now, the speculators are chasing after old books that nobody cared about for 30 years, a phenomenon that wasn't even POSSIBLE in the early 1990's, because there was no internet. There was 1. no way to know fast enough which back issues were on the rise, in enough time to do anything about it, and 2. no way to obtain multiple copies in a short amount of time (yes, there were always exceptions.)

 

You are absolutely correct; what can go up, can go down. I agree with most of your points. But that doesn't change the fact that this period, starting about 2008-2009, is completely different than everything that had gone on before, for the reasons already stated, and others as well.

 

[Vikingreed]

Sure. I just don't think the madness is that the non-keys are undervalued. I think the speculation in the keys is where the market is crazy.

 

Most comics should not really command big money. If you are just looking for mid-grade books, there are tons and tons of them. Supply is greater than demand for the vast bulk of them, unless prices are low. Why would we expect most comics to appreciate over time?

 

Why would NM 88 not be a dollar box item? There are plenty of them around, and who is really that interested in it? Is there a reason to be interested in it at a premium price?

 

The crazy thing to me is that there are now a huge number of speculators looking at key comics as an appreciating investment. They don't own one copy for their collection, they own dozens as an "investment". I wonder how many people own multiple copies of hot keys as an "investment", simply because they are "hot"? I bet that number is a lot higher number than five years ago.

 

It's just a different manifestation of the 90s speculation of buying 20 copies of the latest hot book. It's just that now it is 20 copies of some first appearance no one bothered to care about for 30 years. I suspect that we are going to re-learn that books that many people are hoarding in large numbers can go back down as fast as they go up, and that it is as true for FF36/45/46/52 as it was for X-men 268.

 

 

That value of a VG ASM #135 isn't the point...it's the value of ASM #135 relative to #129, over the course of the last 15 years or so. The value of keys has vastly, vastly outperformed even the value of semi-keys, and if it's not a key...throw it out (unless it MIGHT become a key, then hoard it.)

 

#129 is easy to chart: since 2002, there has been a steady and inexorable march up, in average price, in every grade except 9.8 (which grade operates under different rules altogether.)

 

#135? Flat.

 

New Mutants #87? Up, up, up. $300 for a 9.8 is the "new normal."

 

#88? Flat. $50 was the last sale, and no one cares enough to list one for sale.

 

And this is true up and down, from 1961 to now.

 

It's madness.

 

Very good post.

[Vikingreed]

I'm one of those collector's who still chase after 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc., appearances for my favorite characters.

 

It's fine with me the "market" doesn't.... haha

 

 

[Gatsby77]

Yeah - it was a good post.

 

Because right after I read it I scanned tonight's Clink auction offerings. If it's not a key? Good luck.

 

New Mutants? Tons of 87 & 98. Nothing in between. Granted, folks only want to consign key books to Clink, but for New Mutants the only issues up tonight are # 87 (x 7), # 98 (x 5) and Annual 2 (x 2).

 

First Deathstroke with NTT # 2? Got it (x 6). Even 9.8 Sig Series. 2nd or 4th Deathstroke? Forget it. Not there. Nor are NTT # 3-20.

 

Ms. Marvel 1? Sure. Five copies. Ms. Marvel 18? Okay. One. But Mystique already had her movie bump (a few times), so who cares, really?

 

It's hard to build runs if decent high-grade material isn't on the market to begin with.

[romanheart]

I like reading the posts in this thread but the responses vary so much I don't know if there is a general agreement on where the hobby is headed.

 

I would like to think all the books had relevance if for no other reason then to be still found today in high grade with nice page quality after all these years.

[Hamlet]

Its the 2nd appearance of Cable. Drawn by Rob Liefeld.

 

The amazing thing isn't that it is in the dollar box. The amazing thing is that 87 isn't.

 

Ultimately, there are just so many books out there, that they can't all be worth big money. Someone has to own them all, and choose owning them over selling them. If NM 88 was a $10 book on average, that would mean there was $1.5 million dollars out there devoted to that single issue. There are probably thousands of issues that are that interesting to collectors as a whole. How many billions of dollars of comic inventory can there practically be?

 

I do think the speculators' focus on 1st appearances to the exclusion of just about every other aspect of comics is a little extreme. The FF "keys" now look a little strange, with the classic story in #51 left in the dust as almost worthless compared to the issues around it.

 

Most of the later McFarlane Spiderman issues are now tough sells at more than $2 in non-CGC grades. I'm waiting for people to decide that GL76 is no longer really worth anything because it is just good art and a new team-up.

 

 

Because it's the second appearance of the character. Back in the olden days, people collected second appearances (and subsequent appearances) almost as fervently as first appearances. Plenty around? Relative to what? It was on the verge of being cancelled, with no more than maybe 150,000 copies extant, at best.

[musicmeta]

Does all this mean "Uncensored Mouse" comics will sky rocket in value?

[ComicConnoisseur]

I think it is fallacious to say we are in a bull market for comics. We are in a bull market for "keys"... but not for comics overall. In a true bull market, as with stocks, the vast majority of issues will rise. If you have a broad-mix portfolio of stocks, your mutual fund will increase in a general bull market... not just the "hot" stocks.

 

If you had a broad mix of comics... say 1000 mixed issues, most likely your portfolio has dropped, even despite the keys in your collection, over the past few years. Most non-key silver and bronze are selling for well below guide right now. Check out golden-age values on GPA... drops of often 25-50% or more on basic issues... even big titles like Batman, All Star, numerous others.

 

Despite all of the movies, our new-comic sales dropped again last year (only slightly this time) as they have most of the past 15 years. Our file customers are half the number they were a decade ago.

 

Now if you "invested" only in keys the past few years, you did very well. It's like having a portfolio of only NASDAQ high-tech stocks before the bubble burst years back. However... as that example shows... timing is critical.

 

I want things to turn around for ALL comics... not just the darling-of-the-moment issues. There's no way to do this, however, if we don't understand the true dynamics going on in the marketplace... we have to look beyond the "shiny" to determine if we're looking at gold or fool's-gold.

 

There's one of the main points I was going to make, right there!

 

Now I don't need to.

 

 

Yes, one of the reasons why this market is like nothing else before: keys (and anything that could become a key) are going crazy, while everything else is mess. Why is New Mutants #87 such a "hot" book, while New Mutants #88 can still be found in dollar bins? Why is Iron Man #55 smoking, while Captain Marvel #26 is cheap? Why is Spidey #129 still holding its own, while Spidey #135 (and, for that matter, all the rest of the Punisher apperances) languishes?

 

What about Hulk #272? And, for that matter, does anyone know off the top of their heads what Rocket Racoon's NEXT comic book appearance is? How about the second appearance of Harley Quinn?

 

No, this market is radically different from all that came before, and I don't know if that's a good thing or not. It USED to be "I have Spidey #129...what OTHER Punisher appearances do you have??"

 

Now, it's "I'll just take Spidey #129, thanks. No interest in anything else."

+1

Kind of like baseball and football cards were all they care about is the rookie card for the most part.

[roulette44]

I think it is fallacious to say we are in a bull market for comics. We are in a bull market for "keys"... but not for comics overall. In a true bull market, as with stocks, the vast majority of issues will rise. If you have a broad-mix portfolio of stocks, your mutual fund will increase in a general bull market... not just the "hot" stocks.

 

If you had a broad mix of comics... say 1000 mixed issues, most likely your portfolio has dropped, even despite the keys in your collection, over the past few years. Most non-key silver and bronze are selling for well below guide right now. Check out golden-age values on GPA... drops of often 25-50% or more on basic issues... even big titles like Batman, All Star, numerous others.

 

Despite all of the movies, our new-comic sales dropped again last year (only slightly this time) as they have most of the past 15 years. Our file customers are half the number they were a decade ago.

 

Now if you "invested" only in keys the past few years, you did very well. It's like having a portfolio of only NASDAQ high-tech stocks before the bubble burst years back. However... as that example shows... timing is critical.

 

I want things to turn around for ALL comics... not just the darling-of-the-moment issues. There's no way to do this, however, if we don't understand the true dynamics going on in the marketplace... we have to look beyond the "shiny" to determine if we're looking at gold or fool's-gold.

 

There's one of the main points I was going to make, right there!

 

Now I don't need to.

 

 

Yes, one of the reasons why this market is like nothing else before: keys (and anything that could become a key) are going crazy, while everything else is mess. Why is New Mutants #87 such a "hot" book, while New Mutants #88 can still be found in dollar bins? Why is Iron Man #55 smoking, while Captain Marvel #26 is cheap? Why is Spidey #129 still holding its own, while Spidey #135 (and, for that matter, all the rest of the Punisher apperances) languishes?

 

What about Hulk #272? And, for that matter, does anyone know off the top of their heads what Rocket Racoon's NEXT comic book appearance is? How about the second appearance of Harley Quinn?

 

No, this market is radically different from all that came before, and I don't know if that's a good thing or not. It USED to be "I have Spidey #129...what OTHER Punisher appearances do you have??"

 

Now, it's "I'll just take Spidey #129, thanks. No interest in anything else."

+1

Kind of like baseball and football cards were all they care about is the rookie card for the most part.

 

+1

[Vikingreed]

"Its the 2nd appearance of Cable. Drawn by Rob Liefeld.

The amazing thing isn't that it is in the dollar box. The amazing thing is that 87 isn't. "

 

 

We all know how the older demographic of collectors feel about Mr. Liefeld, Cable, and Deadpool.

 

But there is no denying the fact all three have large fan bases, and that there many people who love that New Mutants run.

 

Poo poo it all you want, but for a lot of people, it brings back happy memories.

Me being one.

 

The first comic related words my niece ever spoke was, "Cable! Boom Boom!".

Guy behind the counter about fell down when he heard a 2 year old girl yell those names in his shop, haha!

[paperheart]

I think it is fallacious to say we are in a bull market for comics. We are in a bull market for "keys"... but not for comics overall. In a true bull market, as with stocks, the vast majority of issues will rise. If you have a broad-mix portfolio of stocks, your mutual fund will increase in a general bull market... not just the "hot" stocks.

 

If you had a broad mix of comics... say 1000 mixed issues, most likely your portfolio has dropped, even despite the keys in your collection, over the past few years. Most non-key silver and bronze are selling for well below guide right now. Check out golden-age values on GPA... drops of often 25-50% or more on basic issues... even big titles like Batman, All Star, numerous others.

 

Despite all of the movies, our new-comic sales dropped again last year (only slightly this time) as they have most of the past 15 years. Our file customers are half the number they were a decade ago.

 

Now if you "invested" only in keys the past few years, you did very well. It's like having a portfolio of only NASDAQ high-tech stocks before the bubble burst years back. However... as that example shows... timing is critical.

 

I want things to turn around for ALL comics... not just the darling-of-the-moment issues. There's no way to do this, however, if we don't understand the true dynamics going on in the marketplace... we have to look beyond the "shiny" to determine if we're looking at gold or fool's-gold.

 

There's one of the main points I was going to make, right there!

 

Now I don't need to.

 

 

Yes, one of the reasons why this market is like nothing else before: keys (and anything that could become a key) are going crazy, while everything else is mess. Why is New Mutants #87 such a "hot" book, while New Mutants #88 can still be found in dollar bins? Why is Iron Man #55 smoking, while Captain Marvel #26 is cheap? Why is Spidey #129 still holding its own, while Spidey #135 (and, for that matter, all the rest of the Punisher apperances) languishes?

 

What about Hulk #272? And, for that matter, does anyone know off the top of their heads what Rocket Racoon's NEXT comic book appearance is? How about the second appearance of Harley Quinn?

 

No, this market is radically different from all that came before, and I don't know if that's a good thing or not. It USED to be "I have Spidey #129...what OTHER Punisher appearances do you have??"

 

Now, it's "I'll just take Spidey #129, thanks. No interest in anything else."

+1

Kind of like baseball and football cards were all they care about is the rookie card for the most part.

 

how'd that turn out?

[CODLIVE]

The difference in ball cards is most of these characters will stay relevant for a long time, Spider-man will never stop hitting home runs and fade into obscurity, He will be around in some form and continue to gain fans. Even what was considered multiple bad movie raised prices.

[fmaz]

One thing that we all have to realize is how badly we are misusing the word "key". People talk about long boxes at LCS gathering dusts while the "key" books move quickly...as if there is some stone tablet upon which the "keys" are permanently inscribed.

 

Fact is? In those dusty long boxes, right this moment? Are probably a dozen books that any of use could walk in and buy right now for $1-$5 that six months from now will be selling for $25-$75. And we don't know what they are (obviously).

 

So if we talk about "classic keys" - books that don't fluctuate wildly based on trends as one class, and then "hot books" as another, what we're seeing now is a preponderance of these "hot books" taking hold.

 

But what's nice about it, is they are mostly coming from the old, dusty back issue bins. Which is leading to people trying to get ahead of the curve. And so I think it has led to a little more interest in the "non-hot books"... if only because people buy them hoping they'll be next month's ACTUAL "hot book."

 

On an unrelated note, the other thing that makes me happy about the current market is that the money being made off of sales of the "hot books" seems to be staying in the hobby, since it is mostly being made by true comic collectors... who are using it to reinvest in other books. That's great to see. No one is coming in from the outside and leeching value from the hobby.

 

 

[COI]

 

I mean, how much should a VG copy of ASM 135 really go for? Probably not big money, or we'd all be retiring on the proceeds from a few longboxes.

 

That value of a VG ASM #135 isn't the point...it's the value of ASM #135 relative to #129, over the course of the last 15 years or so. The value of keys has vastly, vastly outperformed even the value of semi-keys, and if it's not a key...throw it out (unless it MIGHT become a key, then hoard it.)

 

#129 is easy to chart: since 2002, there has been a steady and inexorable march up, in average price, in every grade except 9.8 (which grade operates under different rules altogether.)

 

#135? Flat.

 

New Mutants #87? Up, up, up. $300 for a 9.8 is the "new normal."

 

#88? Flat. $50 was the last sale, and no one cares enough to list one for sale.

 

And this is true up and down, from 1961 to now.

 

It's madness.

 

This is a perfect example. I remember trying to collect ASM back issues in the late 1980s early 1990s when Punisher was hot, and those early Punisher appearances (135, GS Spidey 4, those issues with Nightcralwer in the 160s, 201 and 202, etc...) were always so much more expensive than the surrounding issues.

 

The demand for early appearances of characters is evident by the fact that they are noted in Overstreet; why even note something like the 4th appearance of Kraven? Because collectors wanted that info.

[ComicConnoisseur]

I think it is fallacious to say we are in a bull market for comics. We are in a bull market for "keys"... but not for comics overall. In a true bull market, as with stocks, the vast majority of issues will rise. If you have a broad-mix portfolio of stocks, your mutual fund will increase in a general bull market... not just the "hot" stocks.

 

If you had a broad mix of comics... say 1000 mixed issues, most likely your portfolio has dropped, even despite the keys in your collection, over the past few years. Most non-key silver and bronze are selling for well below guide right now. Check out golden-age values on GPA... drops of often 25-50% or more on basic issues... even big titles like Batman, All Star, numerous others.

 

Despite all of the movies, our new-comic sales dropped again last year (only slightly this time) as they have most of the past 15 years. Our file customers are half the number they were a decade ago.

 

Now if you "invested" only in keys the past few years, you did very well. It's like having a portfolio of only NASDAQ high-tech stocks before the bubble burst years back. However... as that example shows... timing is critical.

 

I want things to turn around for ALL comics... not just the darling-of-the-moment issues. There's no way to do this, however, if we don't understand the true dynamics going on in the marketplace... we have to look beyond the "shiny" to determine if we're looking at gold or fool's-gold.

 

There's one of the main points I was going to make, right there!

 

Now I don't need to.

 

 

Yes, one of the reasons why this market is like nothing else before: keys (and anything that could become a key) are going crazy, while everything else is mess. Why is New Mutants #87 such a "hot" book, while New Mutants #88 can still be found in dollar bins? Why is Iron Man #55 smoking, while Captain Marvel #26 is cheap? Why is Spidey #129 still holding its own, while Spidey #135 (and, for that matter, all the rest of the Punisher apperances) languishes?

 

What about Hulk #272? And, for that matter, does anyone know off the top of their heads what Rocket Racoon's NEXT comic book appearance is? How about the second appearance of Harley Quinn?

 

No, this market is radically different from all that came before, and I don't know if that's a good thing or not. It USED to be "I have Spidey #129...what OTHER Punisher appearances do you have??"

 

Now, it's "I'll just take Spidey #129, thanks. No interest in anything else."

+1

Kind of like baseball and football cards were all they care about is the rookie card for the most part.

 

how'd that turn out?

Better then most think.

Tom Brady, Mike Trout and LeBron James rookie cards average over a thousand, while Rogers and Luck constantly average $500.

For every one Walking Dead there are like 5 modern sport card rookies that are red hot.

 

Skipping the junk overproduced 1990s we find some modern sport cards have value.