Beginning of Bull Market for Comic Books

[Gatsby77]

Even a 120k print run for NM # 88 would put it well above the best-selling comic book for last month (Batman # 37, with ~114k).

 

I think this underscores exactly how much the current comic fan base has shrunk and how incredibly common even low selling books from the early 90s are by comparison.

 

This doesn't refute the widening gulf between keys and non-keys (which is shocking).

 

Rather, it helps explain my shock that books like NM 98, X-Men 266, Man of Steel 18 and even Spawn 1 are worth any money at all, rule of 25 or no.

 

That Spawn # 1 sells for as much as $10-$12 plus shipping on eBay blows my mind.

[Chip Cataldo]

#94? Oh sure, bazillions of dollars.

 

#95? THIRD appearance? Pass.

Fourth appearance. Marvel Team-Up Annual #1 is the third appearance of the new team.

 

Peace,

 

Chip

[ComicConnoisseur]

Even a 120k print run for NM # 88 would put it well above the best-selling comic book for last month (Batman # 37, with ~114k).

 

I think this underscores exactly how much the current comic fan base has shrunk and how incredibly common even low selling books from the early 90s are by comparison.

 

This doesn't refute the widening gulf between keys and non-keys (which is shocking).

 

Rather, it helps explain my shock that books like NM 98, X-Men 266, Man of Steel 18 and even Spawn 1 are worth any money at all, rule of 25 or no.

 

That Spawn # 1 sells for as much as $10-$12 plus shipping on eBay blows my mind.

Money is worth less today then 1990`s money, so it might not be as shocking as you think it is.

An example is

$2 of 1992 dollars would be worth: $3.29 in 2014.

 

$2 of 2014 dollars would be worth $1.15 in 1992.

 

[Phantalien]

While I always hoped I could cash in on these new "key issues", I never do. I do appreciate how the movie hype helps widen the audience of comics and bring more business to those who are fortunate to have these comics.

 

I do grow more tired of walking into any place that has a pile of drek, tattered drek too, and claiming that it is gold. But I have been dealing with that since the whole Death of Superman fiasco.

[1Cool]

It's pretty much a no-win for dealers right now. If you price these books reasonably, they sell out in a day or two. To have a wall of them on display, one has to price them so high that customers then complain you are a *spoon*. There's very little profit on them either... most of the "hot" issues I get in come from existing customers who have multiple copies stashed away... they sell or trade off one now and then for another "key" they want. But they know what stuff is worth... the percentage I can make off a current "hot" book is small enough it really can't cover overhead costs.

 

It's also probably going to force me to change my 30-year business model. We were always the "discount guys"... and a large part of our business is catering to other dealers. In the "old days", dealers would come in with client want-lists of holes needed to fill their runs. We stocked lots of esoteric stuff... so besides the usual silver-age heroes, dealers would have specialized clients for, say, Joe Palooka, Little Lulu, Rip Hunter, westerns, etc.

 

Now all the dealers want from me are "hot" books and "super-keys".... because that's all their clients want. The problem is... I can sell all those books locally... I don't need to advertise, or set up at shows, or send them to auction... so what's the point of me discounting them to an out-of-town dealer? And if the book cools down even ever-so-slightly... they are no longer interested, at any price. I can't blame them... that's what their customets want.

 

But I'm wondering if the era of dealer-to-dealer sales in coming to an end? Plus, eventually, no one can make a living just dealing in 50 or so "hot" issues at any given moment.

 

Well said Tim, that pretty much sums it up for us over here too.

Had someone in yesterday openly admitting he only wanted first appearances that would go up in value.

This market has self-implosion written all over it.

 

Great initial post. The one good thing os almost all the shops I've hit up seem busy and the owners seem happy (except on hole on the wall place in Cincinatti). I'm usually the only person digging thru the boxes but the magic cards, new books and other items seem to be flying off the shelves.

[ComicConnoisseur]

It's pretty much a no-win for dealers right now. If you price these books reasonably, they sell out in a day or two. To have a wall of them on display, one has to price them so high that customers then complain you are a *spoon*. There's very little profit on them either... most of the "hot" issues I get in come from existing customers who have multiple copies stashed away... they sell or trade off one now and then for another "key" they want. But they know what stuff is worth... the percentage I can make off a current "hot" book is small enough it really can't cover overhead costs.

 

It's also probably going to force me to change my 30-year business model. We were always the "discount guys"... and a large part of our business is catering to other dealers. In the "old days", dealers would come in with client want-lists of holes needed to fill their runs. We stocked lots of esoteric stuff... so besides the usual silver-age heroes, dealers would have specialized clients for, say, Joe Palooka, Little Lulu, Rip Hunter, westerns, etc.

 

Now all the dealers want from me are "hot" books and "super-keys".... because that's all their clients want. The problem is... I can sell all those books locally... I don't need to advertise, or set up at shows, or send them to auction... so what's the point of me discounting them to an out-of-town dealer? And if the book cools down even ever-so-slightly... they are no longer interested, at any price. I can't blame them... that's what their customets want.

 

But I'm wondering if the era of dealer-to-dealer sales in coming to an end? Plus, eventually, no one can make a living just dealing in 50 or so "hot" issues at any given moment.

 

Well said Tim, that pretty much sums it up for us over here too.

Had someone in yesterday openly admitting he only wanted first appearances that would go up in value.

This market has self-implosion written all over it.

 

Great initial post. The one good thing os almost all the shops I've hit up seem busy and the owners seem happy (except on hole on the wall place in Cincinatti). I'm usually the only person digging thru the boxes but the magic cards, new books and other items seem to be flying off the shelves.

Magic cards are real money makers. Magic The Gathering hobby hasn`t peaked yet. It`s in its prime. Think of the comics hobby of the late 1980s.

(thumbs u

[ComicConnoisseur]

It's pretty much a no-win for dealers right now. If you price these books reasonably, they sell out in a day or two. To have a wall of them on display, one has to price them so high that customers then complain you are a *spoon*. There's very little profit on them either... most of the "hot" issues I get in come from existing customers who have multiple copies stashed away... they sell or trade off one now and then for another "key" they want. But they know what stuff is worth... the percentage I can make off a current "hot" book is small enough it really can't cover overhead costs.

 

It's also probably going to force me to change my 30-year business model. We were always the "discount guys"... and a large part of our business is catering to other dealers. In the "old days", dealers would come in with client want-lists of holes needed to fill their runs. We stocked lots of esoteric stuff... so besides the usual silver-age heroes, dealers would have specialized clients for, say, Joe Palooka, Little Lulu, Rip Hunter, westerns, etc.

 

Now all the dealers want from me are "hot" books and "super-keys".... because that's all their clients want. The problem is... I can sell all those books locally... I don't need to advertise, or set up at shows, or send them to auction... so what's the point of me discounting them to an out-of-town dealer? And if the book cools down even ever-so-slightly... they are no longer interested, at any price. I can't blame them... that's what their customets want.

 

But I'm wondering if the era of dealer-to-dealer sales in coming to an end? Plus, eventually, no one can make a living just dealing in 50 or so "hot" issues at any given moment.

 

Well said Tim, that pretty much sums it up for us over here too.

Had someone in yesterday openly admitting he only wanted first appearances that would go up in value.

This market has self-implosion written all over it.

I disagree and agree.

 

I agree with the non-Marvel stuff having a self-implosion eventually, but disagree with the Marvel keys. I don`t see the Marvel movies losing popularity for a long time.

 

I see the Marvel movies getting even more popular. Current high prices on Marvel keys will seem cheap in 5 years. IMHO.

 

[thedude]

 

That Spawn # 1 sells for as much as $10-$12 plus shipping on eBay blows my mind.

 

 

I sold a Spawn #1 at the last Cincy comic expo for $10 and was glad to get rid of it. had that book for 20 years.

[1Cool]

I also think it's a good time to find lesser known hot books since everyone is out looking for the ASM 300s or Fantastic Four 45s. I just got a very nice set of ASM 298, ASM 299 and Fantastic Four 44 at the last store I went to because no one went looking past the low hanging fruit.

[zosocane]

Well said Tim, that pretty much sums it up for us over here too.

Had someone in yesterday openly admitting he only wanted first appearances that would go up in value.

This market has self-implosion written all over it.

 

I agree that the 1st appearance market of "B"-list and "C"-list characters at some point is going to pop. I was at a con last weekend and the prices on many of these types of 1st appearance books -- raw, where you know there are enough dings and dents that these are really 9.2s that are being offered at 9.8 prices -- were ridiculously astronomical. But it will only pop when the movie/TV train runs out of steam. That doesn't appear like it will happen until 2019 at the earliest, with the long string of confirmed Marvel/DC films and TV shows coming up. The coattail effect of comic book films and TVs shows continues to draw new groups of comic book fans into cons and local shops. At this con I attended last weekend, I overheard a late teens-ish female buyer asking a dealer, and this is an exact quote: "do you have any Deathstroke?" That right there sums up my point: a buyer that we probably didn't have in our hobby 3+ years ago asking about a C-list character that is in ultra-high demand right now only because a TV show on the CW network has made that character cool -- the comic book didn't make him cool. And to be clear, i think it's wonderful that we have new collectors of all types flocking in ... I just wouldn't hold my breath that they're in the hobby when the movie/TV craze ends.

 

For the long-haul, I think there is some safety in the functional equivalent of our hobby's blue-chip stocks ("A"-list first appearances) and in all-around great books and classic cover books in nice condition. But when you feel compelled to buy a 1st appearance of a "who?" character because that character will be in a film or TV show ... watch out.

[Hamlet]

I think it is a mistake to think that popular movies is necessarily going to mean much for Marvel keys in the long term. For the most part, I don't think the movies are generating much true end collector interest in these keys. I think they are generating a lot of speculator to speculator sales, and triggering a lot of hoarding of keys as an "investment".

 

Just look at FF 36, 45, 46, and 52. The interest in them can't be new collector interest from the movies, because the movies are years away. It's just speculators and a few bandwagon collectors driving prices right now.

 

The human mind does not deal rationally with collectible prices. It sees that something has gone up for a long time, and then extrapolates that out for the long term. The interest other people have in the books generates interest in other people and prices rise to ridiculous levels.

 

This process works in reverse as well though, and when a speculative bubble pops it can get ugly very fast. A CGC 4.0 AF15 has gone from a $2500 book in 2002 to a $10,000 book today, give or take. Are there really enough collectors out there who are willing to own this book at 10k long term? It is actually a very common book. I really wonder how many of these books are owned by people with a half-dozen copies, thinking of them as a can't fail investment, rather than collectors who own their single copy as the pinnacle of their Spidey collection?

 

When the trend breaks for a little bit, it might be surprising how fast someone with six copies is going to sell at least five of them.

 

I agree with the non-Marvel stuff having a self-implosion eventually, but disagree with the Marvel keys. I don`t see the Marvel movies losing popularity for a long time.

 

I see the Marvel movies getting even more popular. Current high prices on Marvel keys will seem cheap in 5 years. IMHO.

[jimbo_707]

Did the May 2012 Thanos reveal and subsequent mega pop in Iron Man 55 prices signal the beginning of the current bull market for key back issue comics?

 

I'm not sure that it started that soon, but maybe that was a harbinger of it. I was still finding reasonable prices on some books at the end of 2012.

 

I'd say "recent bull market" might be more accurate than "current bull market" because it seems like it's coming to an end (with the exception of books with movie-tie-ins).

[zosocane]

When the trend breaks for a little bit, it might be surprising how fast someone with six copies is going to sell at least five of them.

 

But those AF15 prices won't drop very much because you will see a lot of for those five AF15 copies at perceived below FMV prices. But the FF36, 45, 52? Yeah, I can definitely see those dropping a long way -- they're common books featuring B- and C-list characters.

[Buzzetta]

 

Have any of you followed the prices for Hulk #181s? The last three years have been complete and utter madness. Every grade, across the board, doubled, sometimes tripled....and still, the demand is unending.

 

But Hulk #183? #179? #200? #147? #120? They best be priced at $1, or 9.4s or above, or no one, but no one will buy them.

 

I do not believe that Hulk 181 is a good example here. We are talking one of the most popular characters Marvel has ever created over the course of their history and the character has demonstrated lasting appeal since about a decade before Wolverine first appeared on screen.

 

Wolverine is not a Hulk character so people searching for the first appearance of Wolverine have zero interest in other Hulk books. The surrounding books, 180 and 182, featuring Wolverine have maintained a decent value in comparison. Wolverine has surpassed the popularity of the main character whose book he is in.

 

 

I think the example is a great one, and here's why: the print run and extant copies for, say, #184 aren't any higher, and probably not much lower, than #181. The extant copies may be a bit lower, but not by vast amounts.

 

And yet...#184, a complete "non-key" can be had for $200 or so in 9.8.

 

#181, on the other hand, is $11,000 or so.

 

You're making the argument for me. That's the point. Everyone is so hyper-obsessed with #181 because of what it is, to the point of not giving a single poop about the others, which aren't any better, nor worse, than #181. There's nothing inherently wrong with #184, or the others...except it doesn't have Wolverine in it.

 

Well...technically.

 

 

It didn't used to be that way. If Hulk #181 was a $35 book, the rest were still $2 or so. The gap now is amazing.

 

Look at it another way: the only comparable Silver Age examples are Amazing Fantasy #15, and the rest of the series.

 

I feel you missed the point - the people buying 181 are not buying it for the Hulk, they are buying it for Wolverine who is not considered a main supporting character of the hulk. If you are into hulk you are buying 184. If you are into wolverine - you want his first appearance.

 

If Wolverine had appeared in say XMen 181 then there would be more of a demand for XMen 184 because they would naturally be collecting the book for their "all things mutant collection". To XMen collectors the only reason to look at Hulk is for the Wolverine issues.

 

Now ASM 194? Black cat is a Spiderman book. If you are picking up a 1st Black Cat then you are also interested in other ASM books. There are more Spiderman collectors buying ASM 197 than XMen collectors buying Hulk 184.

[Buzzetta]

And btw I am typing this on my phone after crawling back to bed. Yay thumbs !

[ComicConnoisseur]

When the trend breaks for a little bit, it might be surprising how fast someone with six copies is going to sell at least five of them.

 

But those AF15 prices won't drop very much because you will see a lot of for those five AF15 copies at perceived below FMV prices. But the FF36, 45, 52? Yeah, I can definitely see those dropping a long way -- they're common books featuring B- and C-list characters.

Groot and Drax will be more popular in 5 years, as will the Black Panther and the Inhumans.

That`s why I say a lot of these Marvel keys will look cheap in 5 years.

Once the genie is let out of the bag there is no going back.

 

 

[lizards2]

I got one statement to make - flippers flipping to flippers.

 

It is not a good trend for the hobby. It prices books out of the hands of the people who actually care about the hobby.

[Gatsby77]

I got one statement to make - flippers flipping to flippers.

 

It is not a good trend for the hobby. It prices books out of the hands of the people who actually care about the hobby.

 

This.

 

And that books like FF 45 & 52 are now more expensive in the marketplace than established keys like FF 48 &/or (in some cases) ASM 129 is ridiculous.

 

Black Panther will never become a bigger character than Silver Surfer. More importantly, the momentum will shift back to FF 48 (or ASM 129) the precise moment a new Silver Surfer or Punisher movie is announced.

 

That's the core of the current house of cards in movie speculation -- subtle shifts in demand can cause swift decreases.

 

I'd wager even Iron Man 55's taken a hit in recent months as the bigger money is (perceived) to be made with Detective 474, FF 36, 45, & 52.

 

And next month it could shift to Captain America 217 or some other random 4th-rate "key."

[MisterX]

I wonder how many veteran collectors are contributing to this environment?

 

Say, collectors who once focused on runs suddenly realizing that the bulk of their collection is not going to appreciate in value has they had wanted to believe (and in fact may become a gigantic, difficult to dispose of albatross), so they change gears and pursue only the key books...

 

 

[ComicConnoisseur]

I got one statement to make - flippers flipping to flippers.

 

It is not a good trend for the hobby. It prices books out of the hands of the people who actually care about the hobby.

 

This.

 

And that books like FF 45 & 52 are now more expensive in the marketplace than established keys like FF 48 &/or (in some cases) ASM 129 is ridiculous.

 

Black Panther will never become a bigger character than Silver Surfer. More importantly, the momentum will shift back to FF 48 (or ASM 129) the precise moment a new Silver Surfer or Punisher movie is announced.

 

That's the core of the current house of cards in movie speculation -- subtle shifts in demand can cause swift decreases.

 

I'd wager even Iron Man 55's taken a hit in recent months as the bigger money is (perceived) to be made with Detective 474, FF 36, 45, & 52.

 

And next month it could shift to Captain America 217 or some other random 4th-rate "key."

I don`t see why Black Panther will never become a bigger character than Silver Surfer, as of right now with the mainstream Groot is a bigger character than Silver Surfer. There are new rules/times because there is a new,different and bigger audience now.

To think that these Marvel movies are just a fad, and will go away maybe selling them short. In fact they will get much bigger. Because of these movies the Marvel heroes will always be in the limelight. They will never fade back into the corner LCS from which the sprang. They have now been exposed to mainstream, and mainstream loves them.

Once the Inhumans get the Game of Thrones treatment they will be put on a big level just like Guardians of Galaxy.

Now on the other hand I could see the DC second rate heroes falling back because DC doesn't have the track record of making great movies like Marvel has.