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AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR (May-2018)
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Lots of tension in Wakanda between ancient traditions and modern tech...which might explain the foot soldiers.  

The spears, meanwhile, are all sonic cannons that can take out a tank, according to Killmonger...

 

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I'm not sure anything close to $400m would be feasible given the number of theatres it's in, etc., but I see this as breaking $250m for the opening weekend.  It's an "event" film with a ton of hush-hush surrounding its plot and ending, so people will generally want to see it as early as possible, especially if the reviews are strong.  Not sure it could even hit $300m, though, even if word of mouth is brilliant.

Dan

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13 hours ago, The Brain said:

Has it been asked yet what we think this movie will due in it's opening weekend???

Could it brake into the $400 million range???

Original Avengers did $207m, BP did $202m. The Force Awakens (#1 all time) did $248m.

 

So no. its not going to do $400m. I can see $210-220. 

 

Better question is will it be the first MCU movie to have a $100m Friday?

This is a definite posibility based on presales and audience going behavior around event movies.

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also there is a physical ceiling to revenue. There are only so many theaters, screens and showings that can be done in a weekend.

 

At most there are 4500 theaters.

At a highest saturation TFA got almost $60k/theater (and Im not sure that Theaters will go as big with AIW as they did with TFA) and that $59k is almost 10k higher than the second highest, The Last Jedi.

If AIW does a very respecrable $53k/T and is in as many theaters as TLJ was 3 months ago (4,232) then it opens with $220m

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Yeah wondered about that theater number... But I also wonder what gets lumped into that 5700 number. 

Let me clarify, 4500 Viable Release theaters.

I'm betting that 5700 includes, art house cinemas (not showing blockbusters), revival theaters, foreign language cinemas, and other cinemas with no plans to show A:IW. I went with 4500 cause that's the highest reported theater umber on Mojo (OK it was 4529 for Despicable Me 3, I rounded). oh I also bet the 5700 includes the discount theaters who don't get new releases for a few weeks.

So 4500 potential theaters max to show AIW in opening weekend.

 

I know screens are tougher to get usage data on (I use some Fandango data based on the top 50 markets), any idea how many screens TLJ or TFA were getting on their opening weekend? I assume they are the high water mark.

Edited by miraclemet
autocorrect
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42 minutes ago, miraclemet said:

I know screens are tougher to get usage data on (I use some Fandango data based on the top 50 markets), any idea how many screens TLJ or TFA were getting on their opening weekend? I assume they are the high water mark.

I agree with your logic capturing screen space in theaters does have it's limitations. Just pointing out the real domestic box office theater and screen count.

And in this case where one larger super-theater can have the same movie on more than one screen, that is probably where Disney is going to focus. Just like it did with Last of the Jedi's special theater terms of screen time over four weeks or a penalty was assigned.

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1 minute ago, Bosco685 said:

 

And in this case where one larger super-theater can have the same movie on more than one screen, that is probably where Disney is going to focus. Just like it did with Last of the Jedi's special theater terms of screen time over four weeks or a penalty was assigned.

i agree, Disney is going to roll this out like the Star Wars Franchise movies as opposed to the previous MCU movies (not that those rollouts were small potatoes).

Plus there hasnt been a blockbuster in a while (BP being the last one) so there's nothing big (like say if Rampage had been a 100m  blockbuster, not a mild fart) getting in the way of AIW rolling out huge.

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