Total Existing Copies of AF #15 2 2

[Gatsby77]

Number of AF 15s "on the market" =/= # of AF 15s extant.

 

It's one of the most popular comic books of all time, so it stands to reason that a very small % of copies is available on the market in any given year vs. lovingly tucked away in collections by...you know, collectors.

 

While it's relatively unattainable price-wise _now_, it was far more accessible in the late 80s-early 90s, so a large number of collectors in their 40s-60s likely have the book (i.e., any serious Silver Age collector who was in the game before 1994).

 

I like Jimbo's estimate of copies per state vs. 10:1 raw v. slabbed (proportions I could easily see).

[roulette44]

And for the record, I'm not trying to serve any personal agenda here. I Think the book is overvalued relative ro the large supply....... I just don't think the supply is THAT LARGE

 

Full disclosure : I own 4 copies - personal 7.5, raw copy in mid grade at Cgc, a mod restored 8.5 and a slight restored 9.2

 

Joey

[BarryAllen]

I'd say an assumption of 100 copies per State would be on the conservative side.....that alone would equal 5000. I've also heard that raw collectors outnumber slab collectors by 10 to one.....that would suggest, proportionately, 15,000 copies. I'd say the true amount would be somewhere between those two figures. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

Think of the page quality of the 100 copies in Alaska!

 

Do they need to dig and sluice for them like Alaskan Gold? Should we call Parker Schnabel?

[jimjum12]

Anyone who believes that most of the copies extant have been slabbed already is hitting the Koolaid pretty hard..... or maybe naïve. I know lots and lots of vintage collectors who own no slabs and will never pack up a 5000 dollar comic and mail it to someone to encapsulate..... not going to happen.... and the more valuable it becomes.... even less likely. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

....there's fifty copies of AF 15 just in THIS town.......one town out of thousands of towns ....

[BarryAllen]

I like Jimbo's estimate of copies per state vs. 10:1 raw v. slabbed (proportions I could easily see).

 

:shrug:

 

Non-key or books worth less than $1,000, sure most are unplanned. Books worth $5,000 and up (where stabbing definitely impacts price) not buying it as much. Stabbed copies for sale on this book outnumber raw 50+ to 1. Market sales on some level have to mirror the private market, they aren't completely separate entities.

 

Again though, the 10:1 ration is pure speculation and conjecture. What information is there to support that there are over 13,000 raw AF 15s in market? Let alone a lot more?

[jimjum12]

What information do you have to support your claim that most copies have already been slabbed ? GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

 

.....and raw collectors outnumber slabbed collectors by far more than 10: 1...... just walk around any comic show and look at what's available and what is being purchased.....

[BarryAllen]

What information do you have to support your claim that most copies have already been slabbed ? GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

 

.....and raw collectors outnumber slabbed collectors by far more than 10: 1...... just walk around any comic show and look at what's available and what is being purchased.....

 

All recorded sales - eBay, auction sites and dealers sites support this. The vast majority of sales on this book are stabbed sales.

 

We cannot make the association that just because most comics are unslabbed, that most copies of any given comic are unslabbed - that would be a hasty generalization.

[Jaydogrules]

What information do you have to support your claim that most copies have already been slabbed ? GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

 

.....and raw collectors outnumber slabbed collectors by far more than 10: 1...... just walk around any comic show and look at what's available and what is being purchased.....

 

All recorded sales - eBay, auction sites and dealers sites support this. The vast majority of sales on this book are stabbed sales.

 

We cannot make the association that just because most comics are unslabbed, that most copies of any given comic are unslabbed - that would be a hasty generalization.

 

Agreed. These statements of an assumed massive amount of AF 15 "shadow inventory" remind me a lot of what all the experts were saying about the purported shadow inventory of foreclosed real estate that all the banks supposedly had after the crash.

 

That wasn't true either.

 

-J.

[jimjum12]

What information do you have to support your claim that most copies have already been slabbed ? GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

 

.....and raw collectors outnumber slabbed collectors by far more than 10: 1...... just walk around any comic show and look at what's available and what is being purchased.....

 

All recorded sales - eBay, auction sites and dealers sites support this. The vast majority of sales on this book are stabbed sales.

 

We cannot make the association that just because most comics are unslabbed, that most copies of any given comic are unslabbed - that would be a hasty generalization.

 

.... not nearly as hasty a generalization that all copies bought and sold represent all (or even nearly all) copies..... or that all copies have changed hands in the last decade AND been recorded in the handful of venues you're focusing on..... GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

...like the song goes "You hear what you want to hear, and disregard the rest."

 

.....I am to assume, by your line of reasoning, that very few people who purchased an AF 15 before 1999 still have them....

Edited March 9, 2015 by jimjum12

[BarryAllen]

What information do you have to support your claim that most copies have already been slabbed ? GOD BLESS....

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

 

.....and raw collectors outnumber slabbed collectors by far more than 10: 1...... just walk around any comic show and look at what's available and what is being purchased.....

 

All recorded sales - eBay, auction sites and dealers sites support this. The vast majority of sales on this book are stabbed sales.

 

We cannot make the association that just because most comics are unslabbed, that most copies of any given comic are unslabbed - that would be a hasty generalization.

 

.... not nearly as hasty a generalization that all copies bought and sold represent all (or even nearly all) copies..... or that all copies have changed hands in the last decade AND been recorded in the handful of venues you're focusing on..... GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

...like the song goes "You hear what you want to hear, and disregard the rest."

 

.....I am to assume, by your line of reasoning, that very few people who purchased an AF 15 before 1999 still have them....

 

No, I was merely challenged and provided a source of data that supports my affirmative. You may not agree with what it tells, but it is representative of a large portion of market sales. I could also cite known dealers on this site whom sell large numbers of this book - the vast majority of which are stabbed as well. No need to drag them in though.

 

I ask the same of the opposing argument, where is the data - where is proof I can see?

 

Shifting the burden of proof is an informal logical fallacy (onus probandi). The burden of proof rests upon the party that makes the claim, not on the disputing party (regardless if a counter point is made). In this instance I am challenging the 10:1 ratio as it applies to AF 15, prove me wrong.

Edited March 9, 2015 by rfoiii

[jimjum12]

....You're not listening...... sales.....in whatever shape or form, have very little to do with the total population in the wild(i.e. unknown copies). All sales figures will give you are a sample of the copies that someone no longer wanted. The fact that a given number of those are slabbed can in no way reflect on that being the case with the unknown examples, since slabbing is most often done to aid a sale. You still haven't supported your claim. If you want to involve a sampling of dealer's opinions, by all means, do so.... but, once again....this is only an assumption that all copies are changing hands, which they are not. It still leaves the question of number of unknown copies... which is the theme of the discussion to begin with.GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

[BarryAllen]

....You're not listening...... sales.....in whatever shape or form, have very little to do with the total population in the wild(i.e. unknown copies). All sales figures will give you are a sample of the copies that someone no longer wanted. The fact that a given number of those are slabbed can in no way reflect on that being the case with the unknown examples, since slabbing is most often done to aid a sale. You still haven't supported your claim. If you want to involve a sampling of dealer's opinions, by all means, do so.... but, once again....this is only an assumption that all copies are changing hands, which they are not. It still leaves the question of number of unknown copies... which is the theme of the discussion to begin with.GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

I'm sorry, but I'm not. I provided a source of factual data that supports my claim. You and the opposing view have not done so. Continuing to argue your POV by assuming my data point is inadequate isn't logical or a strong stance. A sample of specific market data used to extrapolate market conditions is common statistical practice.

 

Either provide data that supports the 10:1 ratio or concede that you cannot support the position.

 

Or provide me data that disproves my assertion and that the sampling of sales do not accurately reflect the market.

 

Either way, no information has been provided from the other viewpoint. Until then, you are avoiding the burden of proof, avoiding the actual discussion with ancillary points and spouting conjecture.

 

Again, I ask you to prove me incorrect.

[Jeffro.]

You're asking him for proof he cannot provide, through no fault of his own. You would have to seek out every collector who owns raw copies of AF 15 in order to validate. A comic like AF 15 rarely trades hands raw, therefore most sales data is going to be for slabbed copies.

 

It's conjecture but I also believe that there are far more raw copies exisiting than people think.

[jimjum12]

As far as the 10:1 part....there are many ways to perform a deductive analysis.... say a ratio/proportion scenario where one compares the number of comics produced since 1933 to the number of bags and boards sold versus the number of books slabbed..... or the number of CGC Short Boxes sold versus the number of Long Boxes sold..... the truth will become crystal clear. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

 

..... you're very intelligent and I respect your bulldog tenacity..... but don't limit yourself by being "so smart you have nothing to learn".

[BarryAllen]

You're asking him for proof he cannot provide. You would have to seek out every collector who owns raw copies of AF 15 in order to validate. A comic like AF 15 rarely trades hands raw, therefore most sales data is going to be for slabbed copies.

 

It's conjecture but I also believe that there are far more raw copies exisiting than people think.

 

I understand that is likely true. However, without proof it is just speculation and not proven valid. Other data that has been provided that suggests otherwise.

 

:shrug: If someone cannot support a claim with data or evidence, then they need to be prepared when people challenge it and ultimately refute legitimacy.

 

I am trying my best not to be rude. Hopefully I am not offending anyone.

Edited March 9, 2015 by rfoiii

[BarryAllen]

As far as the 10:1 part....there are many ways to perform a deductive analysis.... say a ratio/proportion scenario where one compares the number of comics produced since 1933 to the number of bags and boards sold versus the number of books slabbed..... or the number of CGC Short Boxes sold versus the number of Long Boxes sold..... the truth will become crystal clear. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

 

..... you're very intelligent and I respect your bulldog tenacity..... but don't limit yourself by being "so smart you have nothing to learn".

 

I would actually really like to see something like that played out, especially if it proves me wrong.

 

[jimjum12]

As far as the 10:1 part....there are many ways to perform a deductive analysis.... say a ratio/proportion scenario where one compares the number of comics produced since 1933 to the number of bags and boards sold versus the number of books slabbed..... or the number of CGC Short Boxes sold versus the number of Long Boxes sold..... the truth will become crystal clear. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

 

..... you're very intelligent and I respect your bulldog tenacity..... but don't limit yourself by being "so smart you have nothing to learn".

 

I would actually really like to see something like that played out, especially if it proves me wrong.

 

 

...it would...if "wrong" is even the correct concept here..... neither of us have anything of consequence at stake. Honestly.....I'd say. speculatively based on my personal experience ..... no less than 1500 (that's the easy part ) and no more than 8000.......some states have less than 100 and some, way more.

[Jaydogrules]

As far as the 10:1 part....there are many ways to perform a deductive analysis.... say a ratio/proportion scenario where one compares the number of comics produced since 1933 to the number of bags and boards sold versus the number of books slabbed..... or the number of CGC Short Boxes sold versus the number of Long Boxes sold..... the truth will become crystal clear. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

 

..... you're very intelligent and I respect your bulldog tenacity..... but don't limit yourself by being "so smart you have nothing to learn".

 

Jim, rfoii's point is well taken and his data is tangible, whereas yours is not. First, we have the census. A 15+ years worth of information that has been compiled. We see less than 1450 blue labels recorded by them, and the most common grade being a 3.0. Next, we see the vast majority of copies being sold as being slabbed. There are some raw copies that trade hands as well, but the VAST majority are slabs. Further the notion that people only slab a copy when they intend to sell is disingenuous and presumptuous. I personally own one copy and I slabbed it for preservation and presentation, not to sell. If people just slabbed to sell, why don't we see 2000 copies on the market right now instead of 20? I will slab a crappy modern if it gets to be worth a couple hundred dollars. And I'm just one guy. Am I the only person who slabs his own personal collection for this reason ? Hardly. (thumbs u

 

-J.

[Jeffro.]

You're asking him for proof he cannot provide. You would have to seek out every collector who owns raw copies of AF 15 in order to validate. A comic like AF 15 rarely trades hands raw, therefore most sales data is going to be for slabbed copies.

 

It's conjecture but I also believe that there are far more raw copies exisiting than people think.

 

I understand that is likely true. However, without proof it is just speculation and not proven valid. Other data that has been provided that suggests otherwise.

 

:shrug: If someone cannot support a claim with data or evidence, then they need to be prepared when people challenge it and ultimately refute legitimacy.

 

I am trying my best not to be rude. Hopefully I am not offending anyone.

 

You're not offending me although based on what I've seen of your posting history, I think you take this stuff way too seriously. It's a comic book message board not a debating class. However, that's neither here nor there.

Data that confirms that most sales of AF 15 are slabbed copies is not proof of how many raw copies are out there still locked up in personal collections. It's only proof of how many slabbed copies have been sold.

 

 

[BarryAllen]

As far as the 10:1 part....there are many ways to perform a deductive analysis.... say a ratio/proportion scenario where one compares the number of comics produced since 1933 to the number of bags and boards sold versus the number of books slabbed..... or the number of CGC Short Boxes sold versus the number of Long Boxes sold..... the truth will become crystal clear. GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u

 

 

..... you're very intelligent and I respect your bulldog tenacity..... but don't limit yourself by being "so smart you have nothing to learn".

 

I would actually really like to see something like that played out, especially if it proves me wrong.

 

 

...it would...if "wrong" is even the correct concept here..... neither of us have anything of consequence at stake. Honestly.....I'd say. speculatively based on my personal experience ..... no less than 1500 (that's the easy part ) and no more than 8000.......some states have less than 100 and some, way more.

 

I am comfortable with that range.

 

My bet is on Arizona as the sleeper state - huge retirement community and good conditions for preservation.

 

(thumbs u