Total Existing Copies of AF #15 2 2

[ttfitz]

"Due to the CPR game, the actual number of unique copies graded is obviously less than 2,279"

 

What is/was the CPR game?

 

Given the investment nature of this book, I would think that at least 1/3 to 1/2 of remaining copies have been CGC graded. Since whether your copy is a 5.0 or a 6.0 could mean a $10,000 difference in value, I think most owners of unslabbed copies choose to get them slabbed.

 

I would say you might be right with that last statement if you added "if they are going to sell them." I haven't had mine graded, and never will as I intend to keep it, but my family knows that if they are going to sell after I'm gone, it probably makes sense to get it slabbed.

[1950's war comics]

I believe that AF 15 could easily be at around 7500 copies in existence total as it is certainly probable that at least one third of them have been graded , it is almost too risky buying a nice raw copy these days, similar to a couple pricey key coins that almost nobody buys ungraded like the1909-SVDB or 1916D mercury unless they are in very poor shape and cheap

[RockMyAmadeus]

There are substantially more than 7,500 copies of this book still extant.

[markseifert]

There are substantially more than 7,500 copies of this book still extant.

 

Sake of argument, let's take the middle road of your estimate and say there's 20k. [Ten percent-ish of the initial sell-through, 8 years before the Oversteet era, that number in a vacuum is not outrageous]

 

The question then becomes, how many of those will be slabbed and/or come to public market before they are destroyed?

 

Let's say that all copies of AF 15 both unknown and known will change ownership within the next 70 years. Unknown copies means they are hidden within other property (a house, grandad's old trunk, etc). A large percentage of inherited copies will be slabbed and/or come to market and THEN be slabbed shortly after being inherited.

 

Virtually all "unknown" copies will either become known or be destroyed shortly after the property changes hands. There will be exceptions, but not many.

 

Kind of hand-waving around the fact that some copies will change hands without being slabbed, you're still talking about 250+ "NEW-to-market" copies per year being added into the market in some form. Every year for 70 years.

 

***

 

That's interesting to contemplate. It'd be interesting to know what would happen to the market if copies were slabbed at much higher than the current rate, for several years running.

 

I think it also suggest that if there are 20k copies out there, very many of them will be destroyed without becoming known. I think we'd be seeing some acceleration of census numbers already, if market forces were efficient enough to bring most recently-discovered or recently-inherited "orphaned" copies (those held by civilians or very casual collectors) to market.

 

The wildcard in all this is hording. Presuming a 20k number, a lot of things that don't make sense now (the fact that a 5x price increase has not accelerated the rate of slabbing AT ALL) become more plausible if there are old-school collectors/dealers out there sitting on 100+ copy stashes and slowly slabbing them as they need money.

 

And finally, if any of the above is remotely true, it also suggests that I should buy stock in a grading company, because they'd have a brighter future than maybe even they imagine.

 

Edited February 26, 2015 by markseifert

[skypinkblu]

I chose the last option. There are many people who own raw copies of this book, would never bother having them graded.

 

There are MANY people off these boards who collect books but think very little about having books graded, nor would they know how to go about it if they did want it slabbed.

 

I have a friend with at least 4 unslabbed copies. I have a copy that's never been slabbed. I can name at least 5 others I know of and that's without thinking very hard. It's not rare...My Action 13 might be rare, but not AF15.

 

It's a nice book to own and loads of people want to own it, but when you collect GA books, you really learn the difference with "rare".

 

Rare doesn't mean desirable, this book is desirable.

[Dick Pontoon]

I chose the last option. There are many people who own raw copies of this book, would never bother having them graded.

 

There are MANY people off these boards who collect books but think very little about having books graded, nor would they know how to go about it if they did want it slabbed.

Yup. I'd say the majority of collectors even at a con fit this description.

[RockyMullins]

"Due to the CPR game, the actual number of unique copies graded is obviously less than 2,279"

 

What is/was the CPR game?

 

Given the investment nature of this book, I would think that at least 1/3 to 1/2 of remaining copies have been CGC graded. Since whether your copy is a 5.0 or a 6.0 could mean a $10,000 difference in value, I think most owners of unslabbed copies choose to get them slabbed.

 

I may be in the minority, but I own an AF 15, JIM 83, TOS 39, DD 1, FF1, ST 110, Avengers 1, IH 1 and more (admittedly all low grade), but I have no slabbed books. I still like to open them up from time to time. Don't plan to ever sell or slab them...maybe, just maybe when I'm in my twilight years.

[Jaydogrules]

I voted for 2X, even though I know that is likely incorrect but because I feel there are far lass than the 20k plus that is currently leading in the polls, and I wanted to balance things out a bit, for the following reasons:

 

1) Everyone knows who Spider-Man is, unless you just walked out of a cave and stumbled on an AF 15 in an "abandoned" storage locker, you know that it is a valuable book.

 

2) The dramatic price increases have not noticeably accelerated the current submissions.

 

3) A significant percentage of the existing slabs are CPR's.

 

4) It does not surprise me that comic book collectors know other comic book collectors/dealers who have multiple raw copies. That just means there are less raw copies out there that other people have.

 

5) I would surmise that most raw copies out there are either low grade and/or restored. Yes, they still "count" as copies but they will appeal to a different market.

 

None of this is to say the book is "rare" in absolute terms. The book can be found in many low-mid grade ranges, at least on most days. But obviously, even with the copies that are out there, the demand is not enough to keep a lid on prices, at least for now.

 

-J.

 

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

I voted for 2X, even though I know that is likely incorrect but because I feel there are far lass than the 20k plus that is currently leading in the polls, and I wanted to balance things out a bit, for the following reasons:

 

1) Everyone knows who Spider-Man is, unless you just walked out of a cave and stumbled on an AF 15 in an "abandoned" storage locker, you know that it is a valuable book.

 

This is not true.

 

2) The dramatic price increases have not noticeably accelerated the current submissions.

 

"Dramatic price increases" mean nothing to many collectors.

 

3) A significant percentage of the existing slabs are CPR's.

 

According to....?

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

There are substantially more than 7,500 copies of this book still extant.

 

Sake of argument, let's take the middle road of your estimate and say there's 20k. [Ten percent-ish of the initial sell-through, 8 years before the Oversteet era, that number in a vacuum is not outrageous]

 

The question then becomes, how many of those will be slabbed and/or come to public market before they are destroyed?

 

Let's say that all copies of AF 15 both unknown and known will change ownership within the next 70 years. Unknown copies means they are hidden within other property (a house, grandad's old trunk, etc). A large percentage of inherited copies will be slabbed and/or come to market and THEN be slabbed shortly after being inherited.

 

Virtually all "unknown" copies will either become known or be destroyed shortly after the property changes hands. There will be exceptions, but not many.

 

Kind of hand-waving around the fact that some copies will change hands without being slabbed, you're still talking about 250+ "NEW-to-market" copies per year being added into the market in some form. Every year for 70 years.

 

***

 

That's interesting to contemplate. It'd be interesting to know what would happen to the market if copies were slabbed at much higher than the current rate, for several years running.

 

I think it also suggest that if there are 20k copies out there, very many of them will be destroyed without becoming known. I think we'd be seeing some acceleration of census numbers already, if market forces were efficient enough to bring most recently-discovered or recently-inherited "orphaned" copies (those held by civilians or very casual collectors) to market.

 

The wildcard in all this is hording. Presuming a 20k number, a lot of things that don't make sense now (the fact that a 5x price increase has not accelerated the rate of slabbing AT ALL) become more plausible if there are old-school collectors/dealers out there sitting on 100+ copy stashes and slowly slabbing them as they need money.

 

And finally, if any of the above is remotely true, it also suggests that I should buy stock in a grading company, because they'd have a brighter future than maybe even they imagine.

 

I like your reasoning, Mark, but it doesn't work at this time.

 

CGC is only 15+ years old. But, more significantly, there are many, many, MANY copies that are still in the hands of the original or nearly-original owners, and they don't care about either slabbing or selling.

 

Give it a generation plus, then we'll see how things shake out.

 

It cannot be stressed enough that the fact that comic books have value is still a very, very niche idea, and that they can be slabbed is a small fraction of that.

 

And there are still people who have many multiple copies who bought them in the 60's for 10, 15, 25, 50 cents each...what does it matter to them what they're worth, if they don't need the money?

[markseifert]

I like your reasoning, Mark, but it doesn't work at this time.

 

CGC is only 15+ years old. But, more significantly, there are many, many, MANY copies that are still in the hands of the original or nearly-original owners, and they don't care about either slabbing or selling.

 

Give it a generation plus, then we'll see how things shake out.

 

You might be right... there's a fair chance it's just too early to draw the conclusion I'm trying to draw.

 

But I can't get past the fact that a 5x price increase, (even in low grade!) over the lifetime of the CGC era hasn't increased slabbing velocity.

 

If you're sitting on 4-5 extra mid-grade raw copies, even if you are doing ok financially, at some point it has to give you pause that you've got $100k-150k+ there (or whatever that would be the next year, or the year after). And even if you don't know that, someone who knows you have them knows that.

 

[Although, , there's probably something to be said re tax implications for selling now vs letting them be inherited, in a lot of cases]

 

That means SOMETHING. It may not mean what I think it means. And it may be too early yet. But if you're even remotely right about the number of copies out there, at some point we will see a very substantial increase in the rate that copies are hitting the census.

[kimik]

Most of the collectors I know that have copies of AF #15 have them unslabbed (just in Mylars). They buy graded books now, but have had their AF #15s for a while and have not sent them in.

 

That being said, there are still a lot of collectors that do not buy slabs. Heck, at a small local show this past weekend I had someone pass on my 9.0 Swamp Thing #37 since it was slabbed.

[kimik]

I like your reasoning, Mark, but it doesn't work at this time.

 

CGC is only 15+ years old. But, more significantly, there are many, many, MANY copies that are still in the hands of the original or nearly-original owners, and they don't care about either slabbing or selling.

 

Give it a generation plus, then we'll see how things shake out.

 

It cannot be stressed enough that the fact that comic books have value is still a very, very niche idea, and that they can be slabbed is a small fraction of that.

 

And there are still people who have many multiple copies who bought them in the 60's for 10, 15, 25, 50 cents each...what does it matter to them what they're worth, if they don't need the money?

 

+1

 

I am starting to see more "I have not bought a book since 198X" collections come out of basements over the past two years, a couple of which had AF #15s, but a lot of them are still sitting in storage.

[G.A.tor]

I like your reasoning, Mark, but it doesn't work at this time.

 

CGC is only 15+ years old. But, more significantly, there are many, many, MANY copies that are still in the hands of the original or nearly-original owners, and they don't care about either slabbing or selling.

 

Give it a generation plus, then we'll see how things shake out.

 

You might be right... there's a fair chance it's just too early to draw the conclusion I'm trying to draw.

 

But I can't get past the fact that a 5x price increase, (even in low grade!) over the lifetime of the CGC era hasn't increased slabbing velocity.

 

If you're sitting on 4-5 extra mid-grade raw copies, even if you are doing ok financially, at some point it has to give you pause that you've got $100k-150k+ there (or whatever that would be the next year, or the year after). And even if you don't know that, someone who knows you have them knows that.

 

[Although, , there's probably something to be said re tax implications for selling now vs letting them be inherited, in a lot of cases]

 

That means SOMETHING. It may not mean what I think it means. And it may be too early yet. But if you're even remotely right about the number of copies out there, at some point we will see a very substantial increase in the rate that copies are hitting the census.

 

what about if you are sitting on 60 copies, at least 2 or 3 are 9.0++

 

you know what you do, you enjoy them in their raw state with no desire to slab or sell...at least that's what one collector is doing...

[Spiderturtle]

I feel the 5.0 and above af15s will have a strong stable upward trend in prices even if theres more than 10x currently graded in existence. The demand side will hold up once more supply becomes available. 5.0s with no mc is a good benchmark for good eye appeal

Edited March 5, 2015 by SpiderTurtle

[The-Collector]

I feel the 5.0 and above af15s will have a strong stable upward trend in prices even if theres more than 10x currently graded in existence. The demand side will hold up once more supply becomes available. 5.0s with no mc is a good benchmark for good eye appeal

 

On what do you base this conclusion? Not saying a disagree but why do you see prices continuing to perform well?

[Spiderturtle]

I feel the 5.0 and above af15s will have a strong stable upward trend in prices even if theres more than 10x currently graded in existence. The demand side will hold up once more supply becomes available. 5.0s with no mc is a good benchmark for good eye appeal

 

On what do you base this conclusion? Not saying a disagree but why do you see prices continuing to perform well?

 

 

When the 5.0s was at $10k 5 years ago, i had posed the question if it would ever double to $20k in 5 years. Some well respected boardies including gator said no b/c too many copies in existence. The last 2 sales were 17.4k and $18.75k

Edited March 5, 2015 by SpiderTurtle

[BarryAllen]

I like this discussion, not only are people speculating to total existing copies (or copies remaining to be stabbed) but also speculating as to the motivations (current or future) of those who are sitting on multiple copies.

 

I think there are a couple things that will happen if the number of slabbed copies greatly increases (i.s. + 25% or more).

1 - supply increases outpace demand, so pricing will decrease, at least in the short-term. Does this make it a bad long-term investment, not necessarily - it all depends on the time frame and the point of comparison. Higher grades are clearly at most risk given history on other "keys" when multiple high grades materialize.

2 - Spider-Man isn't going anywhere anytime soon. A whole new generation of kids love him in a whole new way. Does that equal long term value for AF 15, maybe - it likely depends on cultural norms on collecting in 15 years after the baby-boomers completely exit the market and all media is digital. Might make owning a comic more desirable or less, I can see both outcomes as plausible.

3 - the current popular investing trends lend themselves to something outside the stock market. People (particularly younger investors) like the thrill of speculation and are "investing" as they don't have the longevity or confidence in the stock market that some more experienced investors due. Comics are still relatively cheap (in general) and offer far more thrill than shares of Pepsi or a mutual fund.

4 - the Marvel/Disney machine is set to churn for at least another 10 years. This in of itself is a form of price protection on key books in the hobby as pop-culture continues to be inundated with superheroes. What happens after RDJ retires? I dunno, but it is still a while away. Even with an increase in supply outpacing demand, we will likely see a price correction and return to growth.

 

Net, 5x, 10x or 20x the copies, I would still buy the best copy I can afford under 7.5 (obviously being a conscientious buyer) and hold on to it for 5-10 years before so considering selling.

 

 

Side note:

At the end of the day, everyone is motivated by money on some level. My biggest question is: How much money must these AF 15 hoarders have to keep them from selling their books...? Or how can I reach them to upgrade my copy?

[NewWorldOrder]

Unless they find a warehouse of AF 15's this book is not going down in any of our lifetimes.

 

There is too much demand and even if the census doubled tomorrow the supply worldwide would drink the AF 15 milkshake right up. I agree there are some nice copies either still in collections of hobbyists who haven't/nor wanted to get their copy/copies graded or original owner collections that have them, however there is a line of collectors who will gladly pony up right away. The number of tickets waiting to buy AF15's is a long line which is my point.

 

The fact of the matter is dealers can't even find them anymore when they are even trying to buy them at full retail.

 

Obviously not a rare book, but the Chicago Cubs will win a World Series quicker than an affordable AF 15 will be showing up before you.

 

The longer you wait the more cash you will have to spend. The 3rd most important comic book of all time has no downside.

 

 

Edited March 5, 2015 by SPECTRE_007

[RockMyAmadeus]

Unless they find a warehouse of AF 15's this book is not going down in any of our lifetimes.

 

There is too much demand and even if the census doubled tomorrow the supply worldwide would drink the AF 15 milkshake right up. I agree there are some nice copies either still in collections of hobbyists who haven't/nor wanted to get their copy/copies graded or original owner collections that have them, however there is a line of collectors who will gladly pony up right away. The number of tickets waiting to buy AF15's is a long line which is my point.

 

The fact of the matter is dealers can't even find them anymore when they are even trying to buy them at full retail.

 

Obviously not a rare book, but the Chicago Cubs will win a World Series quicker than an affordable AF 15 will be showing up before you.

 

The longer you wait the more cash you will have to spend. The 3rd most important comic book of all time has no downside.

 

 

Famous last words.