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2015 May 28-30 Comics Signature Auction

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What are considered the Top 10 Silver to Modern Age "Super Hero" (Marvel or DC) pieces up for grabs in everyone's opinions, so excluding Schultz Peanuts, Frazetta, etc., simply comic book heroes, out of curiosity...

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To me, Kirby art is like diamonds: it's pretty, but given how much is how there, how can it be so expensive?

 

Because as much supply as there is, there is even more demand. Guy had (has) a lot of fans.

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To me, Kirby art is like diamonds: it's pretty, but given how much is how there, how can it be so expensive?

 

It's a stock vs. flow phenomenon. The stock (overall supply in existence) is huge, but the flow (the supply available at something resembling FMV at any given time) is not, especially for the really good Kirby art. That said, I don't think that's a permanent state of affairs; almost all of the existing stock will change hands at least once in the next, say, 30 years, and I wouldn't be surprised if (much) lower prices are eventually required to clear the market at some point. But, that doesn't help people who want a Kirby example anytime soon. 2c

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To me, Kirby art is like diamonds: it's pretty, but given how much is how there, how can it be so expensive?

 

It's a stock vs. flow phenomenon. The stock (overall supply in existence) is huge, but the flow (the supply available at something resembling FMV at any given time) is not, especially for the really good Kirby art. That said, I don't think that's a permanent state of affairs; almost all of the existing stock will change hands at least once in the next, say, 30 years, and I wouldn't be surprised if (much) lower prices are eventually required to clear the market at some point. But, that doesn't help people who want a Kirby example anytime soon. 2c

 

I was being a little facetious in my statement. Really though, there are a number of nuances that make my diamond v. kirby art apt. Like Kirby art, diamonds come in varying grades (the 4 Cs for those of you who are not married or engaged), and like Kirby art, the flow and price are to some extent controlled by a select few . . .

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I think that's one artist where the market has a nearly insatiable demand. Yes a lot of supply at once will hurt prices no matter who the artist, but he's pretty teflon for the most part.

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I think that's one artist where the market has a nearly insatiable demand. Yes a lot of supply at once will hurt prices no matter who the artist, but he's pretty teflon for the most part.

 

To me, there are some major differences. First, the best Picassos are, by and large, in museums and other truly permanent collections and are never hitting the market again, whereas almost all Kirbys are in private hands, owned by very mortal owners who will retire and eventually die off, causing the art to change hands largely in the open market unless something drastic changes. Second, the market for Picassos has truly gone global as newly minted billionaires around the globe, along with upstart museums, buy them as both trophies and safe deposit box equivalents, whereas OA remains largely a niche hobby with very particular demographics. Third, Picassos are arguably not a dependent on nostalgia or generational affinity to the same degree that Silver Age comic art is.

 

So, yes, there is a huge stock of Picassos out there, but the flow, with some exceptions, is similarly tight as with the Kirby market. But, unlike with Kirby, the flow of the truly great Picassos will never become a deluge, as that material has long been placed in permanent housing. Of course, many will point to the Christopher collection sale as proof that these eventual sales will cause but a temporary ripple in the market's everlasting upward ascent. But, that sale was done at a time when the average price was pennies and nickels on today's dollars, the average collecting age was much younger, the runway for spending was much longer, and the hobby still had a decade or more of huge growth ahead of it.

 

What happens when (not if), in 20-30 years (if not sooner), all those Kirbys hit the market again when today's primary buyers (largely in their 40s and 50s, with a smattering of 30 and 60-somethings) are tomorrow's 60 and 70 somethings? Will the people who would pay top dollar for this material today be there when they're that age? Will today's 20 and 30-somethings have both the aggregate numbers, interest and resources to clear the market at the levels people today think will be prevailing in 20 years' time? Or, is Mr. Mankuta right (as per his recent Comicart-L post) and is it all just a big game of hot potato we're playing? Many will undoubtedly say that's sour grapes on his part, but one very respected veteran collector with unimpeachable credentials made very similar comments to me in private last month, calling the OA market a "shell game" and that there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that there will be enough people with the money and interest to buy all this material from us in the future at the prices most are expecting to prevail. :eek: :whatthe:

 

Like I said, though, none of that matters if you want a great Kirby page now - no one will sell you one for 2040 prices (discounted for inflation over the next 25 years) in 2015. lol

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Well those are very fair points for the most part. There's no reason to think the demographic picture 25 years out should be nearly as good as it is today.

 

That being said I think collecting history has also shown us that when great material comes out of the woodwork, extra money comes out of the woodwork too.

 

I think its natural to assume that prices would soften, perhaps even a fair bit in a large scale sell off but I think the sellers will be smart enough to space things out a little and I think the buyers will be smart enough to realize that this is their opportunity for the great kirby material so they'd best get out the checkbook.

 

I hear your points and agree with them for the most part but even 25 years out unless the comic hobby as a whole is 'put a nail in the coffin' D-E-A-D great kirby oa should generate great interest. Out of any comic artist he should be the most 'blue chip' to use a bit of a shaky term.

 

The rest just comes down to your expectations. If one expects massive % price increases they will probably be disappointed, a large chunk of the easy % gains have to be behind this material at this point. If one expects stable or small % steady growth I don't see any reason to foresee an apocalyptic scenario in kirby oa unless the whole hobby is a wasteland by then.

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I think that's one artist where the market has a nearly insatiable demand. Yes a lot of supply at once will hurt prices no matter who the artist, but he's pretty teflon for the most part.

 

To me, there are some major differences. First, the best Picassos are, by and large, in museums and other truly permanent collections and are never hitting the market again, whereas almost all Kirbys are in private hands, owned by very mortal owners who will retire and eventually die off, causing the art to change hands largely in the open market unless something drastic changes. Second, the market for Picassos has truly gone global as newly minted billionaires around the globe, along with upstart museums, buy them as both trophies and safe deposit box equivalents, whereas OA remains largely a niche hobby with very particular demographics. Third, Picassos are arguably not a dependent on nostalgia or generational affinity to the same degree that Silver Age comic art is.

 

So, yes, there is a huge stock of Picassos out there, but the flow, with some exceptions, is similarly tight as with the Kirby market. But, unlike with Kirby, the flow of the truly great Picassos will never become a deluge, as that material has long been placed in permanent housing. Of course, many will point to the Christopher collection sale as proof that these eventual sales will cause but a temporary ripple in the market's everlasting upward ascent. But, that sale was done at a time when the average price was pennies and nickels on today's dollars, the average collecting age was much younger, the runway for spending was much longer, and the hobby still had a decade or more of huge growth ahead of it.

 

What happens when (not if), in 20-30 years (if not sooner), all those Kirbys hit the market again when today's primary buyers (largely in their 40s and 50s, with a smattering of 30 and 60-somethings) are tomorrow's 60 and 70 somethings? Will the people who would pay top dollar for this material today be there when they're that age? Will today's 20 and 30-somethings have both the aggregate numbers, interest and resources to clear the market at the levels people today think will be prevailing in 20 years' time? Or, is Mr. Mankuta right (as per his recent Comicart-L post) and is it all just a big game of hot potato we're playing? Many will undoubtedly say that's sour grapes on his part, but one very respected veteran collector with unimpeachable credentials made very similar comments to me in private last month, calling the OA market a "shell game" and that there isn't a snowball's chance in hell that there will be enough people with the money and interest to buy all this material from us in the future at the prices most are expecting to prevail. :eek: :whatthe:

 

Like I said, though, none of that matters if you want a great Kirby page now - no one will sell you one for 2040 prices (discounted for inflation over the next 25 years) in 2015. lol

 

Some Kirby collectors are in their 20's :baiting:

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Some Kirby collectors are in their 20's :baiting:

 

Sorry, this one doesn't count. :baiting:

What about mine Gene?

 

Note that I said aggregate numbers, interest and resources. I didn't say that the number of buyers would go to zero, just that the next generation of OA collectors is almost metaphysically certain to have fewer numbers, less/different interest and less financial resources in the aggregate than the Baby Boomers and Gen X.

 

At a 6% CAGR, a $10K Kirby page today would be worth $42.9K in 25 years. My guess is that 6% per year is on the low end of what many people believe their Kirbys will appreciate over the next 25 years. There are thousands of Kirby pages out there; will the next generation have the resources to clear the market at more than quadruple their aggregate market cap in 25 years' time? Anyone who believes that is going to happen is likely to be sorely disappointed unless the currency goes down the toilet. Even in that case, the real (inflation-adjusted) return over the next 25 years I suspect is not going to look very good, even if it does OK shorter-term while the demographics are still positive.

 

In 25 years, supply will exceed demand, and prices will have to fall to clear the market. But, that's a long ways away, so it's nothing people have to panic about now unless they're investing their kids' college money in OA or are counting on values rising ever-higher to fund their retirement. 2c

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I guess my point is, work by both these artists is readily available with a constant flow from both dealers and auction houses, yet it doesn't currently affect value toward the downside, as a matter of fact the constant flow seems to create interest: look at warhol! Yes, the best Picasso's are in museum, for the most part, which is in a sense the same as being in a black hole collection in our hobby.....they are untouchable.

 

but yes I agree with your points Gene.

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I guess my point is, work by both these artists is readily available with a constant flow from both dealers and auction houses, yet it doesn't currently affect value toward the downside, as a matter of fact the constant flow seems to create interest: look at warhol! Yes, the best Picasso's are in museum, for the most part, which is in a sense the same as being in a black hole collection in our hobby.....they are untouchable.

 

but yes I agree with your points Gene.

 

I kind of look at it from the other side of the coin. if there were supply side issues what would the prices look like?

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