2015 May 28-30 Comics Signature Auction

[vodou]

...the flow and price are to some extent controlled by a select few . . .

Oh yes. Stock and flow applies here too. The stock matters little, the flow very much in the world of collectibles. Few of you know how widely these phenomena apply (if you will) to almost everything wholesalers and consumers buy though too, 'rare' and collectible or not. Where do you think Gov't Cheese comes from? Or more pertinent...why does it exist?

 

Some call it manipulation, others price stability. Whatever. What really matters is if what you want is available at the time you want (or need, very important that) at a price you can afford? The biggest nut in that barrel of chestnuts being vital medical treatment and medicine. Who wouldn't gleefully grant all their worldly possessions to the one guy in the restaurant that knows the Heimlich when you're choking (to death)? Quantity of dudes worldwide or even in your zip code that know Heimlich (stock) = plenty. Quantity in the restaurant at the exact time you're choking (flow) = at least one, if you're lucky (and he's willing!)

 

It doesn't matter if it's Kirby art, diamonds or lifesaving procedures...flow is (generally) magnitudes more important that stock. That's why new collectors btch day and night about black hole collectors

[suspense39]

There,are a lot of early strips, done by artists like, mccay, Herriman, Raymond etc, these are all from before most collectors were even born, and they are doing quite well. It appears that there is a portion of collectors that really just appreciate the art and craftsmanship of masters from any era and are willing to pay and support that history. I think Kirby is up there as one of the all time greats......this will be an insightful auction to watch.

[delekkerste]

Yes, the best Picasso's are in museum, for the most part, which is in a sense the same as being in a black hole collection in our hobby.....they are untouchable.

 

They are untouchable for now, but if you look at who owns the most/best Kirby material out there and it's all collectors in their 40s, 50s and maybe early 60s. Fast forward 20 years, and these collectors will be in their 60s, 70s and 80s. 30 years from now, they'll be in their 70s, 80s and 90s if they are still around at all. Will their collections be black holes then? While some will take their collections to their graves and let their heirs sort it all out afterwards, many will be selling or will have sold; at some point over the next few decades, almost everything out there will hit the market at least once. Even if these sales are spaced out over time, they'll very likely be bought by other members of this same generational cohort and will turn over again within this 20-30 year window, so we're really talking about who will be left holding the bag, not if people will be left holding the bag.

 

The bottom line is that virtually all the OA in existence will turn over at least once in the next 30 years and the numbers and resources at some point almost certainly won't be there to support the market at the prices many/most people think will be prevailing at that time. I talk to a lot of collectors, and some, like the anonymous veteran I referenced earlier, clearly get it - demography is destiny. That said, most people I talk to generally agree with me on the basic theme, but think that the blue chip Kirby, Ditko, Byrne, Miller, etc. art will remain immune. I hate to say it, but I think that's going to be dead wrong. I think blue chip art by blue chip artists will likely hold up better than a lot of nostalgic and fan favorites (though, even then, purchase price will play a big factor), but, again, where is the money going to come from to support Kirbys at 4x today's prices in 2040 at a modest 6% CAGR? Will the money be there to support a 3% CAGR? Flat? Will people really be paying up for these examples even as the value of art by popular, but less enduring, artists fades by the wayside (something probably a lot more people agree will happen?)

 

I just think that if you scrutinize the dynamics about what is likely to happen over the next 30 years, you'll realize that thinking that there will be some sort of exception for blue chip OA is really something you have to take on faith. You're assuming that there will never be a generational inflection point and that the future will look basically the same as the past. That's a poor bet, IMO - the difference between one analog generation to another (e.g., Baby Boomers to Gen X) was evolutionary, but the changes we are witnessing between Gen X and the Millennials is revolutionary - this generation may be growing up with the characters, but they're not, by and large, growing up with the source material like we did, and I don't think it's hard wired in their DNA that they will seek out the source material and then the originals art to such. Some will fall into it through chance, friends, parents, etc., but it's almost certainly not going to be enough to clear the market at ever-higher prices. Heck, even most of today's BSDs couldn't replicate their collections at today's prices; why would anyone think that the Millennials as a group will be able to afford to take the mantle from Gen X? It's simply not going to happen.

 

The thing is, things can conceivably continue to look reasonably good for some time - right now, the demographics are reasonably favorable, with some 30-something and many 40-something collectors possibly going to keep spending for some years to come. And then, we'll quietly reach a tipping point where this cohort reaches their peak net spending and then things will slowly, but surely, taper off. Not unlike how, seemingly out of nowhere and without warning, U.S. domestic oil production peaked in 1970 and then went into a secular decline for the next 35 years until the shale revolution reversed that decades-long trend. I would not be surprised if the same thing happens in our hobby - things look great for a while, whether that's 5 or 10 or 15 years, who can say, but then today's big spenders taper off their buying and the Millennials aren't there to support the market as we've been used to. Prices don't immediately collapse by any stretch, but they stop going up and eventually reset lower over the ensuing years/decades before stabilizing at a new equilibrium level.

[suspense39]

Thanks, and very thought out!

 

. "Prices don't immediately collapse by any stretch, but they stop going up and eventually reset lower over the ensuing years/decades before stabilizing at a new equilibrium"

 

One can see this to an extent by looking back at old Sotheby's catalogs, strips were king! Then they started to taper down, price wise, and have been picking up steam again, though not at their previous levels.

[delekkerste]

There,are a lot of early strips, done by artists like, mccay, Herriman, Raymond etc, these are all from before most collectors were even born, and they are doing quite well. It appears that there is a portion of collectors that really just appreciate the art and craftsmanship of masters from any era and are willing to pay and support that history. I think Kirby is up there as one of the all time greats......this will be an insightful auction to watch.

 

I agree that there will always be those who appreciate the greats, whether that's Herriman or Kirby. But, the question is whether there will be more or less of those types of collectors going forward, and will their aggregate financial resources be more or less than the collectors today who are supporting the market at present levels.

 

The strip market experience over the past 25 years actually provides some good insights. Back then, great strip art and Frazetta were both considered to be at/near the pinnacle of the hobby - remember, this is largely what the Greatest Generation/Baby Boomers/The Establishment thought to be among the most important comic art. I was just hanging out with a collector friend of mine in San Diego a couple of weeks ago and we were looking through his old (1991?) Sotheby's catalog and results from that auction. The Krazy Kat Sunday in that auction is probably worth about 4x more in 2015. The Frazettas, maybe 5-10x. The Ditko Spidey art? Probably about 30x higher now. Other Marvel art and high-grade comic keys are 50-100x+ higher nowadays. The Gen Xers who grew up with that material decided that this was the most desirable art.

 

Of course, with each passing year, the supply of art increases and there is only so much time/interest/money to go around, so almost by definition, some things will fall out of favor. I know a lot of today's 40 and 50-something were scratching their heads at the McSpidey explosion through 2012 (and still are even at today's prices, which have declined). Heck, I heard that one prominent dealer recently scoffed at someone who proposed trading a McFarlane page for one of his Kirby pages! As if anyone would do that! And yet, the notion would not be crazy to many younger collectors in this hobby. Each generation's interests change. And, prices mean revert over time - what was most expensive in 1991 earned comparatively sub-par returns over the next 24 years because it was already in the price. Of course, the wrong takeaway is that "I can live with a 4-fold increase over the next 24 years even if other stuff does better" - that was then, folks, and this is now. :doh:

[suspense39]

One of the questions I ask a fairly frequently to people that I meet in upper and inside positions in the OA hobby that I meet is how much the collector base is growing or shrinking and the types of collectors that are buying now......I have never gotten a straight answer, usually the answer has nothing to do with what I just asked.

 

[batman_fan]

One of the questions I ask a fairly frequently to people that I meet in upper and inside positions in the OA hobby that I meet is how much the collector base is growing or shrinking and the types of collectors that are buying now......I have never gotten a straight answer, usually the answer has nothing to do with what I just asked.

 

I know I can speak for myself. I started collecting comics in 1976. I picked up my first artwork in the 1980s but I would say my spending was 95% comics, 5% art. Now I am at about 75% art, 25% comics. I am 51 now and looking forward, my spending is definitely going down. This is not from income decline but more from me having a harder time rationalizing the ever increasing price of the type of stuff I like. I was looking at buying a cover for just shy of $30k and just couldn't pull the trigger because it was just so much money. I am at a point where I think I will very likely only buy one or two pieces a year and I will be very selective and price conscience.

[suspense39]

One of the questions I ask a fairly frequently to people that I meet in upper and inside positions in the OA hobby that I meet is how much the collector base is growing or shrinking and the types of collectors that are buying now......I have never gotten a straight answer, usually the answer has nothing to do with what I just asked.

 

I know I can speak for myself. I started collecting comics in 1976. I picked up my first artwork in the 1980s but I would say my spending was 95% comics, 5% art. Now I am at about 75% art, 25% comics. I am 51 now and looking forward, my spending is definitely going down. This is not from income decline but more from me having a harder time rationalizing the ever increasing price of the type of stuff I like. I was looking at buying a cover for just shy of $30k and just couldn't pull the trigger because it was just so much money. I am at a point where I think I will very likely only buy one or two pieces a year and I will be very selective and price conscience.

 

I am very much like you in this respect, I collected (seriously) comics since the early 90s and picked up only a couple pieces of OA toward the end of that decade. I did not start collecting OA with interest until 2011( boy was I late to the party!) I also am much more cautious and thoughtful now due to the high prices, though my limit is generally 5k, and usually in the 1-2k range

[Bronty]

Gene - in that 91 catalog, what were the peanuts prices like? I ask because I consider Schulz the top of the mountain in strips and Kirby the top of the mountain in comics.

 

I just think he's the one guy where his career is so hobby defining that his prices could grow even in an overall decline.

[pinupcartoonguy]

Interesting thread. Another thing to note is that people, especially kids, are just not collecting tangible things as much. Music, movies, books--everything is now digital, so that collector mentality just isn't as prevalent. None of my three kids read comics (my daughter reading Usagi Yojimo and Bone being the exception), and I can't remember the last time I saw a kid in a comic book store. As such, I don't know who is going to back fill when we as 30-50 somethings leave the hobby.

[suspense39]

A 53 peanuts Sunday 2500 in 91

[delekkerste]

Gene - in that 91 catalog, what were the peanuts prices like? I ask because I consider Schulz the top of the mountain in strips and Kirby the top of the mountain in comics.

 

I don't remember, unfortunately - maybe Chris or someone can provide some insight. That said, I have the Christie's 1992 catalog with me and the one Peanuts Sunday lot was withdrawn, though it carried a $2,500-$3,500 estimate. So, if that's at all accurate, we're talking about maybe a 10-15x multiple between 1992 and 2015 - very nice, though, again, far lagging what Marvel art did during that period. But, of course, we started from minuscule bases on most of this stuff.

[delekkerste]

Interesting thread. Another thing to note is that people, especially kids, are just not collecting tangible things as much. Music, movies, books--everything is now digital, so that collector mentality just isn't as prevalent.

 

That's exactly what's happening. All of the previous "analog" generations didn't have e-books, the Internet, the sharing economy, binge watching, social media or the exponential explosion in entertainment choices that the Millennials have grown up with. Even with a growing proportion of time devoted to recreational pursuits, mathematically, the time & attention devoted to comics vs. previous generations has plummeted. And, as you said, much of what today's kids value are virtual/experiential vs. tangible and collectible. E-books instead of books. The Internet vs. daily newspapers. Selfies instead of autographs. Watching superhero TV and movies on demand vs. reading comic books. Using Zipcar and Uber instead of buying cars. Of course, that's not everyone, but these macro themes are and will slowly erode the numbers at the margin in the coming years/decades. Notice that I said slowly...I'm not talking about the next auction cycle or two or even the next year or two.

[suspense39]

All I have is the 2500 estimate in my 91 catalog, no idea what the actual sales price was

[suspense39]

Here's a fun one from the catalog

 

Lot of 13 Jack Kirby original pages from x men 16.......estimate 700-900 dollars

[Sharkey]

 

I know I can speak for myself. I started collecting comics in 1976. I picked up my first artwork in the 1980s but I would say my spending was 95% comics, 5% art. Now I am at about 75% art, 25% comics. I am 51 now and looking forward, my spending is definitely going down. This is not from income decline but more from me having a harder time rationalizing the ever increasing price of the type of stuff I like. I was looking at buying a cover for just shy of $30k and just couldn't pull the trigger because it was just so much money. I am at a point where I think I will very likely only buy one or two pieces a year and I will be very selective and price conscience.

 

I am very much like you in this respect, I collected (seriously) comics since the early 90s and picked up only a couple pieces of OA toward the end of that decade. I did not start collecting OA with interest until 2011( boy was I late to the party!) I also am much more cautious and thoughtful now due to the high prices, though my limit is generally 5k, and usually in the 1-2k range

 

Gene is very much on target with his post about collectors today liquidating near or after retirement. I'm a good example, although only one anecdotal collector. So it's not a secret that I've owned a ton of Kirby art over the years, and a fair amount of Ditko. I started collecting it in the very early 2000s and picked up quite a bit of excellent material when it was $1-5K/page for strong panel pages and less than $10K for dynamite splashes. But as I neared 50 and my wife and I wanted to make some life changes, and the market for these pieces was averaging 10 times what I paid for them, I decided to start selling off my collection to fund a significant life change. I would expect that I am not and will not be the only one who does this. And I do still collect, but I'm not buying Kirby art at $20-$30K/page. That said, there's some excellent Kirby art in the upcoming Heritage and CLink auctions and I expect it to do well at these auctions and for the foreseeable future. However, I would not be surprised if there's some correction in 10 or so years as the guys my age start thinking about that retirement condo near the ocean.

[J.Sid]

I can't argue that everything is going "virtual" and "digital," but I wonder if that doesn't actually make owning a unique piece of art more desirable.

 

People may not have the CD collections they once did, but they do buy more "stuff" than ever, and there is also a growing desire to stand out and be "unique" which includes having things that no one else does.... things like color-customized shoes from Nike.com, as well as things like, say, the OA cover to a "Walking Dead" comic hanging in your hallway.

 

Furthermore, the kids these days are starting their Marvel Mania earlier than ever. They may not know who Jack Kirby is today, just as I didn't know who George Lucas was when I first saw Star Wars, but that doesn't mean that they won't know by the time they're in college.... uh, if colleges are still around that is.

 

 

[delekkerste]

Gene is very much on target with his post about collectors today liquidating near or after retirement. I'm a good example, although only one anecdotal collector. So it's not a secret that I've owned a ton of Kirby art over the years, and a fair amount of Ditko. I started collecting it in the very early 2000s and picked up quite a bit of excellent material when it was $1-5K/page for strong panel pages and less than $10K for dynamite splashes. But as I neared 50 and my wife and I wanted to make some life changes, and the market for these pieces was averaging 10 times what I paid for them, I decided to start selling off my collection to fund a significant life change. I would expect that I am not and will not be the only one who does this. And I do still collect, but I'm not buying Kirby art at $20-$30K/page. That said, there's some excellent Kirby art in the upcoming Heritage and CLink auctions and I expect it to do well at these auctions and for the foreseeable future. However, I would not be surprised if there's some correction in 10 or so years as the guys my age start thinking about that retirement condo near the ocean.

 

That our hobby will reach some kind of secular peak at some point in the next 30 years I take to be a demographic inevitability. The question that has vexed me of late, though, is whether that won't happen until today's 40 and 50-somethings approach retirement and/or start feeling their own mortality (say, 20-30 years from now) or whether Mankuta might be onto something and that we will see a shift in spending habits well before then as collectors sell to finance their kids' college educations and, like yourself, fund lifestyle changes/improvements while you're still young enough to enjoy them.

 

Between skyrocketing prices over the past 5-6 years and with the median age of OA collectors probably moving into the 40s during that time, we've already witnessed large numbers of longtime collectors curb their spending in recent years (of course, we've also seen an influx of new collectors as well). Some, like yourself, have shifted to collecting less expensive art. Some have pulled the ripcord entirely. Would it shock me to see more collectors follow suit in the coming 5-10 years, well before they reach retirement age? Not at all. I suspect that I've likely spent at least 80% of all the money that I will ever spend on OA at this stage of my collecting career, and I doubt I will be more than a bit player in the market after age 50 or so. A grail-worthy piece that I might still pony up big bucks for now is very likely to not be of much interest to me 15 or 20 years from now except at a knock-down price. I suspect it will be the same for most people, whether they have that level of self-awareness now or not - everything has its time and place in time in life.

[Terry Doyle]

 

. . . collectors today liquidating near or after retirement. I'm a good example, although only one anecdotal collector . . . as I neared 50 and my wife and I wanted to make some life changes, and the market for these pieces was averaging 10 times what I paid for them, I decided to start selling off my collection to fund a significant life change. I would expect that I am not and will not be the only one who does this. And I do still collect, but I'm not buying Kirby art at $20-$30K/page.

 

Pretty much the same happened to me as I passed the 50 mark (I'm now 58) and I started to slowly release higher-end stuff to finance big lifestyle changes.

 

A major sell-off of about 4 years ago bought me a bigger, nicer house in a pleasant location at double the price of my old home. My wife (and her family) are still to this day amazed at how much money I've made selling-off parts of my collection. And if I try to explain this all to people I work with, they give me a huge look of disbelief.

 

The collecting addiction's still there, but nowadays I'm collecting stuff that doesn't cost the earth and is cool in its own right.

 

And I'm currently heading for early retirement in a few months, which I can now afford to do.

 

I couldn't be happier.

[vodou]

The question that has vexed me of late, though, is whether that won't happen until today's 40 and 50-somethings approach retirement and/or start feeling their own mortality (say, 20-30 years from now) or whether Mankuta might be onto something and that we will see a shift in spending habits well before then as collectors sell to finance their kids' college educations and, like yourself, fund lifestyle changes/improvements while you're still young enough to enjoy them.

Mankuta nailed it. Anybody ignoring that post (whether you fully agree or not) is living in self-delusion. The whole of everything is cyclical, runs on cycles, that are pretty much out of our control (something most, especially very successful people, have a tough time accepting).

 

But the funny thing is you can't have a bubble unless everybody (well almost, anyway!) is wrong about expectations and greater fools. That's what drives the final vertical push to scary highs and the subsequent crash, as new money dries up (in the face of more sellers than buyers, new supply continues to hit the market (back to flow again here), more and more exits and there are few or no buyers most of the way down. Unlike market securities, there are no short-sellers in our stuff, so there are no natural buyers forced to soften the descent. By that I mean if everybody is largely 'invested' (prices are very mentally 'sticky') at much higher prices and carrying large losses on paper, if not realized, the will to buy all the way down is much less. This assumes disposable income to chase down too. When everyone wants to sell, who wants to buy? (The opposite of when everyone is buying...) And after a fashion, even those that decide to pick among the scraps will have a hard time fighting the feeling that waiting another six months could bring out even better pieces or lower prices. This attitude further fuels the stagnation or ever-lower prices. The psychological angles of deflation/crash should not be ignored. And none of this is demographics (which Mankuta spoke to), that's a separate and even more important factor in that large swaths of society age-out or interest-out of a sector. Those seriously involved in RE are (quietly) wondering who will buy all those McMansions the boomers snapped up in the 80s and 90s...when most people in their 20s and 30s are struggling to get jobs in their degree concentration...or at all, and presently living at home. That mess isn't just a Detroit phenomenon. There are numerous good studies of demographic shifts out there and how Boomers exiting everything (including, eventually, life itself) will greatly affect all of us. Some open-minded thought on the subject...such a bad thing?