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2015 May 28-30 Comics Signature Auction

277 posts in this topic

Not exactly in the same train of thought but interesting in itself.

 

Picasso flood

 

I read that, definitely interesting, I've read Picasso produced as much as 200,000 pieces in his lifetime, including prints and editions, though documentation and records were a lot looser compared to now.

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The question that has vexed me of late, though, is whether that won't happen until today's 40 and 50-somethings approach retirement and/or start feeling their own mortality (say, 20-30 years from now) or whether Mankuta might be onto something and that we will see a shift in spending habits well before then as collectors sell to finance their kids' college educations and, like yourself, fund lifestyle changes/improvements while you're still young enough to enjoy them.

Mankuta nailed it. Anybody ignoring that post (whether you fully agree or not) is living in self-delusion. The whole of everything is cyclical, runs on cycles, that are pretty much out of our control (something most, especially very successful people, have a tough time accepting).

 

But the funny thing is you can't have a bubble unless everybody (well almost, anyway!) is wrong about expectations and greater fools. That's what drives the final vertical push to scary highs and the subsequent crash, as new money dries up (in the face of more sellers than buyers, new supply continues to hit the market (back to flow again here), more and more exits and there are few or no buyers most of the way down. Unlike market securities, there are no short-sellers in our stuff, so there are no natural buyers forced to soften the descent. By that I mean if everybody is largely 'invested' (prices are very mentally 'sticky') at much higher prices and carrying large losses on paper, if not realized, the will to buy all the way down is much less. This assumes disposable income to chase down too. When everyone wants to sell, who wants to buy? (The opposite of when everyone is buying...) And after a fashion, even those that decide to pick among the scraps will have a hard time fighting the feeling that waiting another six months could bring out even better pieces or lower prices. This attitude further fuels the stagnation or ever-lower prices. The psychological angles of deflation/crash should not be ignored. And none of this is demographics (which Mankuta spoke to), that's a separate and even more important factor in that large swaths of society age-out or interest-out of a sector. Those seriously involved in RE are (quietly) wondering who will buy all those McMansions the boomers snapped up in the 80s and 90s...when most people in their 20s and 30s are struggling to get jobs in their degree concentration...or at all, and presently living at home. That mess isn't just a Detroit phenomenon. There are numerous good studies of demographic shifts out there and how Boomers exiting everything (including, eventually, life itself) will greatly affect all of us. Some open-minded thought on the subject...such a bad thing?

 

Can someone post a link to the Mankuta post? I missed it.

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For those who missed it, here's Mankuta's post from Comicart-L a couple of weeks ago:

 

It's all a big game of "hot potato" guys...the investors that

artificially are driving up prices now are all hoping to be the ones

who sell just before the bubble bursts, and mark my words folks, the

bubble WILL burst at some point in the not so distant future...

 

Readership is way, way down, and comic art collecting is a hobby based

on nostalgia. As the last of us original "readers" get older and want

to retire (or pay for kids college, etc), and decide that our

collections are of lesser "priority" in life, we also will sell our

collections at a time when there will be no new buyers to sell to...

 

Many of the true collectors are already priced out of the market and

more will soon be.

 

Learn from the lessons of the past folks:

When cowboy collectibles, premium rings, etc etc got hot for a period

of time, it was only to those who had grown up with the stuff, same as

WE collectors are the last ones who grew up reading comics...

Lesson learned: what goes up, must come down when the true collectors

are not the buyers anymore.

 

I always said, buy what you like, as when it is all worthless you'll

still enjoy it.

 

Best,

JONATHAN (invest in blueberry stock, super foods are hot) MANKUTA

 

You can dismiss it as sour grapes, or wonder if there's any Machiavellian manipulation behind the post, but I think the general thesis rings true. We can argue about the ramifications for the OA market over the next year or two or even 5 to 10, but, ultimately, 20-30 years from now, I don't see how he's not going to be right - the old paradigm of people growing up with comics as a big part of their childhood was thoroughly disrupted by the technological revolution and concurrent changes in society/behavior over the past 20-25 years, and it's really the older generations' nostalgia that is driving the strength we've seen in the market to date (and likely will do so for some years to come).

 

On a semi-related note, it's a little crazy to see how many originals are being reproduced in the Artist Edition type books - between those and all the other big collections that many know about (but many others do not), there is a mess-ton of supply out there, almost all of which will turn over at least once in the coming years/decades. Even spaced out, I can't see how the market can absorb that supply and maintain the :screwy: prices that their owners think they're worth. I don't think even the current generation of collectors could turn over the stock out there at current prices, so the poorer and less interested (in aggregate) Millennial generation has virtually no chance barring some other kind of major structural disruption/revolution that somehow directed a lot more interest and money into OA specifically (not just loving the characters and movies and such - that's just the first step in a 500-mile journey to become an OA collector).

 

I mean, sure, some great pieces will get top dollar in the coming years. We may even get that elusive $1 million public sale of American OA that people have been predicting. But, so what? Such a sale would just validate what we already know to be true and, far from heralding a new permanent plateau of OA collector prosperity, I suspect that such an event would more likely mark the beginning of the end. Eventually, I just don't see how the numbers add up - the market will undoubtedly have a structural, secular supply overhang at some point. Maybe that's not until 15 or 20 years away. Maybe it's only 5 or 10. Who can say with any certainty. But, it's hard to argue without relying on a heap of faith that it's not going to happen in our lifetimes, and I'm certainly not the only one who believes that. 2c

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"I always said, buy what you like, as when it is all worthless you'll

still enjoy it.

 

Best,

JONATHAN"

 

Bingo.

 

Yeah, I never understood the people who have said things to/about me like, "If you think this stuff is not going to be a good investment, why are you buying?" The answer, of course, is because I LOVE THE ART (and any investment considerations are distant, extraneous factors for me)!! Is there any better reason to be buying this stuff? I love the art and want to own it for as long as I can, especially while I'm young enough to still be able to actively socialize with my numerous friends and acquaintances in the hobby over our shared love for the medium. The only difference is that I think the next generation is growing up in a very different world than previous ones and aren't going to share my love of Paul Smith X-Men and Larry Hama G.I. Joe to the same extent. I know, call me crazy! :screwy:

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Can someone post my reply to Mankuta as well?:P

 

I find it amusing that Mankuta now seems to be getting credit for coming up with some new, original thought...as if any of this was new or original. I've had these discussions with other collectors for about as long as I've been in the hobby. All I had to do was look around at my fellow collectors, realize we were all about the same age, and come to the conclusion that there would likely be a flood of material hitting the market when we all reached a certain point in our lives...and wonder who will be there to absorb it all.

 

The irony of all this is I'm fairly certain that I, along with others, have responded with this in the past when Mankuta was in full-on market pumper mode!

 

The only things to be learned from his post were a. he's likely sold off all his marketable inventory and b. Profiles In History must no longer be in the OA business. Plus, he's got a lot of 'splainin' to do with his dealer buddies!

 

As for me, I've made my peace with ANY potential outcome a long time ago. Most of my collecting friends have as well. This is what we enjoy. This is what we're passionate about. I laugh at Mankuta talking about "true collectors" and "investors"...I'll be perfectly happy if new "investors" never come into the hobby and better yet, if the ones who are already in, leave.

 

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"I always said, buy what you like, as when it is all worthless you'll

still enjoy it.

 

Best,

JONATHAN"

 

Bingo.

 

Yeah, I never understood the people who have said things to/about me like, "If you think this stuff is not going to be a good investment, why are you buying?"

 

Well I think the answers are simple and just relate to dissonance.

 

a) It strikes people as odd when the forecast is negative but the forecaster buys (you've explained that you are more interested in the art than the investment - great but that's not always evident to everyone because....

 

b) For most people there is some level of investment mixed in with the pleasure of owning the art and socializing etc etc. What's that old line? That anything over $100 is an investment? Joe Blow with a pretty good job but with a young family and lots of life expenses that go with that can't realistically drop 5k, 10k, 20k at every drop of a hat (even if some of that is funded with selling) without thinking that there is at least partial recoverability of their funds. You may be in a position where the money spent is totally irrelevant and that's wonderful, but its not most people's reality. They have to consider, at least partially, some investment considerations to the art otherwise they themselves will experience some dissonance between the price paid and the rest of their economic outlook. In the simplest terms they have to justify the price to themselves so they are surprised to see someone not engaging in that exercise.

 

Of course, if people have to even partially justify price to themselves with investment considerations, that does suggest some frothiness and the part about not expecting the kids to love Larry Hama GIJoe is well put :insane: You have to have read that as a kid to give a dam.

 

All that being said though this all feels like a slightly new twist on a very old discussion. Of course prices are relatively high right now. And of course they should get relatively lower at some point. It can't go up and up and up forever. We all probably had the same discussion ten years ago, and we'll probably have it again ten years from now.

 

None of this should really be a surprise to anyone. I'm actually sitting here rubbing my forehead wondering how we got to the exact same place in the discussion that we always ends up at. :insane: Our kids are going to have interests different from ours. Full stop. :news:

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Can someone post my reply to Mankuta as well?:P

 

I find it amusing that Mankuta now seems to be getting credit for coming up with some new, original thought...as if any of this was new or original. I've had these discussions with other collectors for about as long as I've been in the hobby. All I had to do was look around at my fellow collectors, realize we were all about the same age, and come to the conclusion that there would likely be a flood of material hitting the market when we all reached a certain point in our lives...and wonder who will be there to absorb it all.

 

The irony of all this is I'm fairly certain that I, along with others, have responded with this in the past when Mankuta was in full-on market pumper mode!

 

The only things to be learned from his post were a. he's likely sold off all his marketable inventory and b. Profiles In History must no longer be in the OA business. Plus, he's got a lot of 'splainin' to do with his dealer buddies!

 

As for me, I've made my peace with ANY potential outcome a long time ago. Most of my collecting friends have as well. This is what we enjoy. This is what we're passionate about. I laugh at Mankuta talking about "true collectors" and "investors"...I'll be perfectly happy if new "investors" never come into the hobby and better yet, if the ones who are already in, leave.

 

Very well put! :foryou: It's all like a news flash from 10 years ago :insane:

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Can someone post my reply to Mankuta as well?:P

 

I find it amusing that Mankuta now seems to be getting credit for coming up with some new, original thought...as if any of this was new or original. I've had these discussions with other collectors for about as long as I've been in the hobby. All I had to do was look around at my fellow collectors, realize we were all about the same age, and come to the conclusion that there would likely be a flood of material hitting the market when we all reached a certain point in our lives...and wonder who will be there to absorb it all.

 

The irony of all this is I'm fairly certain that I, along with others, have responded with this in the past when Mankuta was in full-on market pumper mode!

 

The only things to be learned from his post were a. he's likely sold off all his marketable inventory and b. Profiles In History must no longer be in the OA business. Plus, he's got a lot of 'splainin' to do with his dealer buddies!

 

As for me, I've made my peace with ANY potential outcome a long time ago. Most of my collecting friends have as well. This is what we enjoy. This is what we're passionate about. I laugh at Mankuta talking about "true collectors" and "investors"...I'll be perfectly happy if new "investors" never come into the hobby and better yet, if the ones who are already in, leave.

 

 

I can back up what Felix says at the beginning of his post--he used to chide me in CAF chat about being Mr. Doom and Gloom!

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I wonder if the people who loudly obsess about the supposed coming crash in OA values ever consider that they're helping create a negative, money/investment-focused culture that might help bring about exactly what they seem to most fear.

 

I found this forum after not paying attention to the world of comic book OA for a while, and I was excited when I found this forum and CAF. I expected to get a chance to wax poetic over some of my favorite art and artists, to learn from people who had spent time studying certain artists, and learn about what new artists are doing interesting, worthwhile stuff. And frankly, there's precious little of that kind of discussion here. I wonder what a young person with a serious affection for comics and art, who is considering starting to collect OA, would think of this forum. I think it would be a big turn off.

 

This thread was started to talk about a specific auction. Has there been any discussion about the actual art in that auction?

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For most people there is some level of investment mixed in with the pleasure of owning the art and socializing etc etc. What's that old line? That anything over $100 is an investment? Joe Blow with a pretty good job but with a young family and lots of life expenses that go with that can't realistically drop 5k, 10k, 20k at every drop of a hat (even if some of that is funded with selling) without thinking that there is at least partial recoverability of their funds. You may be in a position where the money spent is totally irrelevant and that's wonderful, but its not most people's reality. They have to consider, at least partially, some investment considerations to the art otherwise they themselves will experience some dissonance between the price paid and the rest of their economic outlook. In the simplest terms they have to justify the price to themselves.

 

No, no, no - I'm not saying at all that the money I've spent is totally irrelevant, far from it! If I thought there was going to be zero recovery from my purchases, I assure you that I'm not :insane: enough to have spent as much on art as I have. What I'm saying is that this notion that it's :screwy: to buy something that doesn't have capital appreciation potential is a very collector-oriented mentality. Back in the real world, many of us buy things all the time that produce negative financial returns,whether it's buying a new car, enjoying a nice meal, taking a nice vacation somewhere - obviously the psychic rewards and utility that we receive offsets the financial outlay of these purchases.

 

For me, it's no different with comic art. I can quite rationally buy comic art expecting not to make money on it (or even lose money) if the potential enjoyment I expect to get from owning the piece is worth more to me than the expected loss or opportunity cost. Where the investment aspect comes in for me is solely in balancing that equation (expected loss vs. expected utility), whereas many/most others will put just as much (or more) focus on return potential as they do the potential downside. 2c

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I wonder if the people who loudly obsess about the supposed coming crash in OA values ever consider that they're helping create a negative, money/investment-focused culture that might help bring about exactly what they seem to most fear.

 

I found this forum after not paying attention to the world of comic book OA for a while, and I was excited when I found this forum and CAF. I expected to get a chance to wax poetic over some of my favorite art and artists, to learn from people who had spent time studying certain artists, and learn about what new artists are doing interesting, worthwhile stuff. And frankly, there's precious little of that kind of discussion here. I wonder what a young person with a serious affection for comics and art, who is considering starting to collect OA, would think of this forum. I think it would be a big turn off.

 

This thread was started to talk about a specific auction. Has there been any discussion about the actual art in that auction?

 

Start some! There is some discussion like that from time to time, but I agree, not enough

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I wonder if the people who loudly obsess about the supposed coming crash in OA values ever consider that they're helping create a negative, money/investment-focused culture that might help bring about exactly what they seem to most fear.

 

I found this forum after not paying attention to the world of comic book OA for a while, and I was excited when I found this forum and CAF. I expected to get a chance to wax poetic over some of my favorite art and artists, to learn from people who had spent time studying certain artists, and learn about what new artists are doing interesting, worthwhile stuff. And frankly, there's precious little of that kind of discussion here. I wonder what a young person with a serious affection for comics and art, who is considering starting to collect OA, would think of this forum. I think it would be a big turn off.

 

This thread was started to talk about a specific auction. Has there been any discussion about the actual art in that auction?

 

:applause:

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Turn of the century illustration art has more momentum now than it ever has before. I know it's not exactly a perfect comparison, but there is a substantial nostalgic-driven component to Rockwell and Elvgren, etc., that has now driven the historical significance more toward a value based on its 'Americana' factor. People who pine for the Saturday Evening Post are mostly pining from graves.

 

I don't think all OA is going to follow suit, but I don't see Kirby twice up art crashing either.

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Turn of the century illustration art has more momentum now than it ever has before. I know it's not exactly a perfect comparison, but there is a substantial nostalgic-driven component to Rockwell and Elvgren, etc., that has now driven the historical significance more toward a value based on its 'Americana' factor. People who pine for the Saturday Evening Post are mostly pining from graves.

 

I don't think all OA is going to follow suit, but I don't see Kirby twice up art crashing either.

 

The thing about Rockwells and Elvgrens is that they hold up as stand-along art. Comic art, particularly panel pages, are more contextual, which to me, makes them less likely to hold up over time. The other aspect of this whole thing is that comics used to be written and drawn for kids, which creates and even greater nostalgic pull.

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Turn of the century illustration art has more momentum now than it ever has before. I know it's not exactly a perfect comparison, but there is a substantial nostalgic-driven component to Rockwell and Elvgren, etc., that has now driven the historical significance more toward a value based on its 'Americana' factor. People who pine for the Saturday Evening Post are mostly pining from graves.

 

I don't think all OA is going to follow suit, but I don't see Kirby twice up art crashing either.

 

The thing about Rockwells and Elvgrens is that they hold up as stand-along art. Comic art, particularly panel pages, are more contextual, which to me, makes them less likely to hold up over time. The other aspect of this whole thing is that comics used to be written and drawn for kids, which creates and even greater nostalgic pull.

 

I used those as examples as most would be familiar with the names, but illustration art as a whole seems to be strong. Or at least the items I bid on :frustrated:

 

But to further your thought, wouldn't a nice comic cover or splash hold up on its own?

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I for one love that Bolland Superman cover. I had never seen that one before. I am not even that big a fan of supes but that is a great piece of art. The inking is sublime as most bolland art is but this piece packs a punch too. I bet in person its outstanding. Kinda shame he went digital =(

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Here is the link to the piece I am talking about by the way

 

Bolland Superman Cover Art in HA

 

Lots of Bolland goodness in that cover, but I'm put off by the awkwardness of Supe's pose, and the funky foreshortening on the legs. It's also an example of the way super-detailed artists like Bolland can turn a dynamic situation/pose into something static.

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What are considered the Top 10 Silver to Modern Age "Super Hero" (Marvel or DC) pieces up for grabs in everyone's opinions, so excluding Schultz Peanuts, Frazetta, etc., simply comic book heroes, out of curiosity...

 

AKA Rick, my Top Ten as far as Covers go by your criteria...

 

Superman Annual #12, B. Bolland (My favorite)

Detective Comics #473, M. Rogers

Wonder Woman #12, G. Perez

Action Comics #819, A. Adams

Marvel Two-In-One #27, J. Kirby

Incredible Hulk #123, H. Trimpe

Amazing Spiderman, #192, K. Pollard

Uncanny X-Men #302, J. Romita Jr.

Wolverine #24, J. Lee

Avengers #1, E. Ribic

 

That Bolland Supes is special. That said, looking at this list, you'd have to say that this is a well-below par offering of covers for a Heritage Signature auction. There's a lot to like in terms of lower-end and lower-mid range material in this auction, as well as strip art of all levels, but, it's pretty slim pickings for the upper part of mid-range and higher-end non-strip art, especially covers.

 

Thankfully, as someone said, there's something for everybody in this sale given how many lots there are...I definitely expect to pick up a few lower-rent pieces in the auction.

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