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Aquaman Movie - July 27, 2018
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At what final grosses do you suppose Aquaman would be considered a success?  200M+ domestic/ $450M+ Worldwide?  Anything short of that and it is another nail in the Warner Brothers/DC coffin?  Or is it more important that the movie is considered good quality even if it comes in at $175M dom/ $375M worldwide?

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16 minutes ago, JLA Brad said:

At what final grosses do you suppose Aquaman would be considered a success?  200M+ domestic/ $450M+ Worldwide?  Anything short of that and it is another nail in the Warner Brothers/DC coffin?  Or is it more important that the movie is considered good quality even if it comes in at $175M dom/ $375M worldwide?

Great quality is all that matters, as a fan, which is why DC should release the Snyder Cut for Justice League...

We, as fans, shouldn't be able to care less about the $$$$$ studios make. Comic book movies shouldn't be geared to general audiences. I don't care if Karen doesn't know who Vulko is - us comic book readers would - and he should've been in Justice League.

Stay true to source material (not completely, as we do need changes and surprises to stay interested) and stop pandering to critics and know-nothings, film studios.

Yes, they need to make money and yes, they need to entice general audiences. Look at what the MCU has accomplished, though. People know who Iron Man and The Avengers are because of good-to-great quality movies that started a foundation where the casual moviegoers are actually interested in the properties despite not being original comic readers.

Marketing and high-quality films will draw crowds.

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8 hours ago, JLA Brad said:

At what final grosses do you suppose Aquaman would be considered a success?  200M+ domestic/ $450M+ Worldwide?  Anything short of that and it is another nail in the Warner Brothers/DC coffin?  Or is it more important that the movie is considered good quality even if it comes in at $175M dom/ $375M worldwide?

either of those WW totals would be terrible. If China is still on tap for a $60MMish opening weekend after $1.2MM preview Thurs, then the typical $100MM or so China # and 35/65 US/ Int'l split will be in sight.

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1 hour ago, paperheart said:

either of those WW totals would be terrible. If China is still on tap for a $60MMish opening weekend after $1.2MM preview Thurs, then the typical $100MM or so China # and 35/65 US/ Int'l split will be in sight.

I don't disagree with you, but there is no goodwill built up in the DC/WB brand at all.  Marvel/Disney could release a Betty Brant movie and it would probably outgross Aquaman (they have goodwill up the wazzu). I really can't imagine they think this will gross in the neighborhood of Captain America: Winter Soldier, Amazing Spiderman 2 or Doctor Strange.  Even Justice League trailed all those movies, so Aquaman is definitely swimming against the tide.  

But don't get me wrong, I want it to succeed and I'm psyched to see it, but if they're projecting $40-60 million opening weekend, if it's not at the very high end of that estimate, that's a problem.

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5 minutes ago, JLA Brad said:

I don't disagree with you, but there is no goodwill built up in the DC/WB brand at all.  Marvel/Disney could release a Betty Brant movie and it would probably outgross Aquaman (they have goodwill up the wazzu). I really can't imagine they think this will gross in the neighborhood of Captain America: Winter Soldier, Amazing Spiderman 2 or Doctor Strange.  Even Justice League trailed all those movies, so Aquaman is definitely swimming against the tide.  

But don't get me wrong, I want it to succeed and I'm psyched to see it, but if they're projecting $40-60 million opening weekend, if it's not at the very high end of that estimate, that's a problem.

the latest projections are $100MM 5 day thru X-Mas.  if it's as bad as the rest of the DCEU, then it should flop but probably won't be and probably won't

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56 minutes ago, paperheart said:

the latest projections are $100MM 5 day thru X-Mas.  if it's as bad as the rest of the DCEU, then it should flop but probably won't be and probably won't

Everything I'm seeing is still in the ~$60MM range.  

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.syfy.com/syfywire/warner-bros-reportedly-in-talks-for-aquaman-sequel%3famp

And that's still not good.  Despite all the hype to try to make it seem good.  

-J.

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4 minutes ago, Jaydogrules said:

Everything I'm seeing is still in the ~$60MM range.  

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.syfy.com/syfywire/warner-bros-reportedly-in-talks-for-aquaman-sequel%3famp

And that's still not good.  Despite all the hype to try to make it seem good.  

-J.

Paperheart is talking 5 days, not just the weekend.

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4 hours ago, Jaydogrules said:

I know.

But $40MM on Mon and Tues? Nah.

You have Bumblebee and Spider-verse competing for the identical audience and Mary Poppins will own Christmas and Christmas Eve.

-J.

We will see. I was not a huge fan of the decision to do this movie since Aquaman has been a 2nd or 3rd tier character for so long, but so far it looks like it will be a fun movie. Add in the James Wan effect, and I would not expect to see this surprise to the upside.

The film I think that will disappoint the most of the big three live action releases is Bumblebee. After the Last Knight debacle the franchise has lost a lot of steam. I can see it paying the price if this is another bad film.

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huge $26MM opening day in China including preview, nearly 25% higher than BvS (DC's best opener tho it also faded the fastest). $70MM weekend in sight. 8.4 Douban score- impressive.  $125-150MM China easily attainable, some saying $200MM possible.

Edited by paperheart
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Wow. That is a big opening day. Looks like the word of mouth and viewer reviews are great for this film in China as well. They may need to sign up Wan for the sequel (or a trilogy?) ASAP.

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1 hour ago, Broke as a Joke said:

Is Wan Chinese?  Could explain the big China opening.

One article this morning said Malaysian-Chinese. I think it is doing well due to it being a decent film - I wonder if word of mouth and reviews will be as positive in the USA?

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On 12/8/2018 at 3:00 PM, paperheart said:

$62.5MM thru Sat, $85MM weekend on tap, $94MM actual.  $150MM+ China in the bag, $200MM possible probable.  if the reviews aren't godawful (like 29 RT godawful), $650MM $700MM WW easily attainable.

Well, based upon the world debut weekend opening in China from the following Forbes Box Office link, it would appear that Aquaman might just turn into an unexpected and surprise hit for DC:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2018/12/09/box-office-aquaman-china-jason-momoa-amber-heard-james-wan-dc-films/#72aed5fc3dad

Especially considering that at $94M for the opening weekend in China alone, it's already ahead of Wonder Woman's total box office run and just one million dollars short of Superman vs. Batman's total run after just the first 3 days in the theatre.  Word of mouth appears to be good and hopefully this bodes well for the rest of the overseas markets next weekend and then finally in terms of the North American markets 2 weekends from now.  (thumbsu

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