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Rai 0 Glossy versus Non-Glossy...
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99 posts in this topic

5 hours ago, Hollywood1892 said:

Noticed the matte version is dropping significantly in value

Supply has spiked.  There were lots of raw copies in collections that got submitted to CGC ahead of the Bloodshot movie.  

The math on this tells the "collective" story:

At the start of 2010, there were 174 copies of Rai #0 graded CGC 9.8 or higher.  The average price for CGC 9.8 was $30, so the "collective 9.8 value" was about $5,200.

At the start of 2015, there were 272 copies of Rai #0 graded CGC 9.8 or higher.  The average price for CGC 9.8 was $53, so the "collective 9.8 value" was about $14,400.

At the start of 2018, there were 923 copies of Rai #0 graded CGC 9.8 or higher.  The average price for CGC 9.8 was $86, so the "collective 9.8 value" was about $79,400.

At the start of 2019, there were 1,269 copies of Rai #0 graded CGC 9.8 or higher.  The average price for CGC 9.8 was $109, so the "collective 9.8 value" was about $138,300.

At the start of 2020, there are 1,996 copies of Rai #0 graded CGC 9.8 or higher.  The average price for CGC 9.8 is $123, so the "collective 9.8 value" is about $245,500.

I wouldn't be surprised if CGC 9.8 Rai #0 fell to $80, because the collective 9.8 value would still be $160,000... which is still $21,000 higher than the start of 2019.

I also wouldn't be surprised if CGC 9.8 Rai #0 went much higher than $150, because Vin Diesel is a bigger Hollywood star than Margot Robbie. 

The "collective 9.8 value" of Batman Adventures #12 is currently $1,200,000.  If Rai #0 got to even half of the Batman Adventures #12 "collective value" ($600,000) each CGC 9.8 Rai #0 would be $300.

(But more copies of Rai #0 will definitely be graded, so $300 probably wouldn't last long, but if Bloodshot gets a sequel, the market price story will continue.)

This discussion ignores Rai #0 Glossy, but it's likely that Batman Adventures #12 will eventually have different market prices for newsstand vs. direct and we're also ignoring that.

Edited by valiantman
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42 minutes ago, valiantman said:

Supply has spiked.  There were lots of raw copies in collections that got submitted to CGC ahead of the Bloodshot movie.  

The math on this tells the "collective" story:

At the start of 2010, there were 174 copies of Rai #0 graded CGC 9.8 or higher.  The average price for CGC 9.8 was $30, so the "collective 9.8 value" was about $5,200.

At the start of 2015, there were 272 copies of Rai #0 graded CGC 9.8 or higher.  The average price for CGC 9.8 was $53, so the "collective 9.8 value" was about $14,400.

At the start of 2018, there were 923 copies of Rai #0 graded CGC 9.8 or higher.  The average price for CGC 9.8 was $86, so the "collective 9.8 value" was about $79,400.

At the start of 2019, there were 1,269 copies of Rai #0 graded CGC 9.8 or higher.  The average price for CGC 9.8 was $109, so the "collective 9.8 value" was about $138,300.

At the start of 2020, there are 1,996 copies of Rai #0 graded CGC 9.8 or higher.  The average price for CGC 9.8 is $123, so the "collective 9.8 value" is about $245,500.

I wouldn't be surprised if CGC 9.8 Rai #0 fell to $80, because the collective 9.8 value would still be $160,000... which is still $21,000 higher than the start of 2019.

I also wouldn't be surprised if CGC 9.8 Rai #0 went much higher than $150, because Vin Diesel is a bigger Hollywood star than Margot Robbie. 

The "collective 9.8 value" of Batman Adventures #12 is currently $1,200,000.  If Rai #0 got to even half of the Batman Adventures #12 "collective value" ($600,000) each CGC 9.8 Rai #0 would be $300.

(But more copies of Rai #0 will definitely be graded, so $300 probably wouldn't last long, but if Bloodshot gets a sequel, the market price story will continue.)

This discussion ignores Rai #0 Glossy, but it's likely that Batman Adventures #12 will eventually have different market prices for newsstand vs. direct and we're also ignoring that.

Could you possibly give me the run down on a few more books, please

Teen Titans 2

New Mutants 98

Forever People 1

New Gods 1

Also, your a genius btw

So how does a book reach its ceiling in value and how do you know about it?

When would be a good time to sell Rai 0?

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1 hour ago, Hollywood1892 said:

Could you possibly give me the run down on a few more books, please

Teen Titans 2

New Mutants 98

Forever People 1

New Gods 1

Also, your a genius btw

So how does a book reach its ceiling in value and how do you know about it?

When would be a good time to sell Rai 0?

The numbers I ran don't work well for books that don't have the majority of the market in a single grade.

New Teen Titans #2 and New Mutants #98 are both "majority market" for Universal CGC 9.8, so these are their numbers:

image.png.4574483df91a2f64f330946cbf45cbd4.png

Forever People 1 and New Gods 1 don't have the majority of their market in Universal CGC 9.8, so there's not really an equivalent comparison.

Edited by valiantman
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3 hours ago, Hollywood1892 said:
3 hours ago, valiantman said:

 

image.png.4574483df91a2f64f330946cbf45cbd4.png

 

I noticed between 2015-2018 NTT 2 jumped $175 than it dipped back down, are you able to explain that? And do you think it will go upwards?

The explanation is that "the market" (that is the collective actions of all active participants in the market) reacts to any external influences differently each time.  Rumor of a movie? There's a reaction. Trailer for a movie? There's a different reaction.  Rumor of a particular character being included in a movie (who wasn't already known to be in the movie)? There's another reaction.  Sometimes it is "overreaction" - and the market settles back from where it was.  Sometimes it's a stable market, but the prices fluctuate.  Sounds wrong, but it's true.

Generally speaking, if there are known to be 100 of something and the market price is $200 then the "collective actions of all participants in the market" has determined the total value is around $20,000.

If nothing changes, except the number of copies, then you'd expect to see each individual price go down, but no change to the total value.

For example, if there are now 150 copies but nothing else has changed (no movie rumors, no sudden interest, no disappointments, etc.) then expect the new price to be around $133 (which is a drop from $200, but not a change to the total) and the total is still $20,000.

The price drops from $200 to $133, but the market (total demand) is stable.  It was the supply that changed. 

When the NTT #2 price jumped from $525 to $700, that looks like a 33% increase, but the total market actually jumped from $138,600 to $335,300, which is a 142% increase.

If that was an overreaction by the market (to have the total value jump 142%), then the total value would probably drop from $335,300 to some lower amount today.

In this case, the total value did not drop, since it is still $343,200 (compared to $335,300), but the number of copies increased, so the only way to have a stable $340,000 total market value is for the price of each individual copy to fall to $550... and it did... but that's a stable market, not a drop.  Each individual copy dropped, but the total value is still (a little above) where it was.

Similarly, once the total value for New Mutants #98 (CGC universal 9.8) reached two million dollars at the beginning of 2018, it hasn't changed.  It's still two million dollars now.  But the census increased so each copy of CGC 9.8 New Mutants #98 fell from $800 to $675.  Is that a drop?  Yes, at the individual book level, but no, not at the total value ("the whole market") level.

That's a stable market.  It has consistently been two million dollars since the beginning of 2018. :foryou:

 

 

Edited by valiantman
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28 minutes ago, valiantman said:

The explanation is that "the market" (that is the collective actions of all active participants in the market) reacts to any external influences differently each time.  Rumor of a movie? There's a reaction. Trailer for a movie? There's a different reaction.  Rumor of a particular character being included in a movie (who wasn't already known to be in the movie)? There's another reaction.  Sometimes it is "overreaction" - and the market settles back from where it was.  Sometimes it's a stable market, but the prices fluctuate.  Sound wrong, but it's true.

Generally speaking, if there are known to be 100 of something and the market price is $200 then the "collective actions of all participants in the market" has determined the total value is around $20,000.

If nothing changes, except the number of copies, then you'd expect to see each individual price go down, but no change to the total value.

For example, if there are now 150 copies but nothing else has changed (no movie rumors, no sudden interest, no disappointments, etc.) then expect the new price to be around $133 (which is a drop from $200, but not a change to the total) and the total is still $20,000.

The price drops from $200 to $133, but the market (total demand) is stable.  It was the supply that changed. 

When the NTT #2 price jumped from $525 to $700, that looks like a 33% increase, but the total market actually jumped from $138,600 to $335,300, which is a 142% increase.

If that was an overreaction by the market (to have the total value jump 142%), then the total value would probably drop from $335,300 to some lower amount today.

In this case, the total value did not drop, since it is still $343,200 (compared to $335,300), but the number of copies increased, so the only way to have a stable $340,000 total market value is for the price of each individual copy to fall to $550... and it did... but that's a stable market, not a drop.  Each individual copy dropped, but the total value is still (a little above) where it was.

Similarly, once the total value for New Mutants #98 (CGC universal 9.8) reached two million dollars at the beginning of 2018, it hasn't changed.  It's still two million dollars now.  But the census increased so each copy of CGC 9.8 New Mutants #98 fell from $800 to $675.  Is that a drop?  Yes, at the individual book level, but no, not at the total value ("the whole market") level.

That's a stable market.  It has consistently been two million dollars since the beginning of 2018. :foryou:

 

 

Thank you

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I found a few at an LCS about a month ago.  They all can back 9.8 and we’re super clean. Woohoo!  But, I held one up next to a “matte” version and could not really tell the Difference. 
The owner showed me the shorter edge on the Glossy versions and said that is pretty much the way to tell the difference.  I didn’t see much of a “glossy” difference.

080F4ACF-C4E6-42BB-BE27-4C15E9E11171.jpeg

537A4DB9-2309-46A1-9DB4-D001C7FD4EA9.jpeg

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45 minutes ago, Lazyboy said:

Why would you ever have to wonder about something that is recorded and publicly accessible?

I'm not really wondering. I know it exists and just like most people I know who has it. The owner has been asked many times in the past about value and selling. I was trying to make a joke. Swing and a miss. 

Also, I am a big VALIANT fan and Rai 0 has always been my favorite. I think this would be the coolest book to own so in a way I was giving respect to the owner. 

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29 minutes ago, Summydad1 said:

I'm not really wondering. I know it exists and just like most people I know who has it. The owner has been asked many times in the past about value and selling. I was trying to make a joke. Swing and a miss. 

Also, I am a big VALIANT fan and Rai 0 has always been my favorite. I think this would be the coolest book to own so in a way I was giving respect to the owner. 

Dude, I love your choices in books.  First Supergirl Legion 23, and now Rai 0.  Both of my favorites.

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21 minutes ago, Wolverinex said:

Dude, I love your choices in books.  First Supergirl Legion 23, and now Rai 0.  Both of my favorites.

Haha. Yeeeah! Thanks. Also, I adore wolverine. Here is a double whammy for you. A Rai 0 homage I had done by David Lapham framed behind a Wolverine sideshow statue. Boom! We can be best friends if you want and as long as my wife doesn’t mind. 

14CB8F66-4C34-45E5-845B-022355E0CCF6.jpeg

428F1AA0-FBD5-4F7B-B1B3-DD5AB35136B3.jpeg

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8 hours ago, Summydad1 said:

Haha. Yeeeah! Thanks. Also, I adore wolverine. Here is a double whammy for you. A Rai 0 homage I had done by David Lapham framed behind a Wolverine sideshow statue. Boom! We can be best friends if you want and as long as my wife doesn’t mind. 

14CB8F66-4C34-45E5-845B-022355E0CCF6.jpeg

428F1AA0-FBD5-4F7B-B1B3-DD5AB35136B3.jpeg

NO WAY.  I almost asked for the same commission a few years ago...

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On 2/2/2020 at 8:30 PM, Summydad1 said:

I'm not really wondering. I know it exists and just like most people I know who has it. The owner has been asked many times in the past about value and selling. I was trying to make a joke. Swing and a miss. 

Also, I am a big VALIANT fan and Rai 0 has always been my favorite. I think this would be the coolest book to own so in a way I was giving respect to the owner. 

hm

 

:whistle:

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I returned it. It looked like mess. I've never seen an inner well with that issue before, but did find other copy's of that issue with varying degrees of that going on with the blacks, so I assume it is on the book. The seller wasn't happy, but he accepted it. 

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Appears this is still very much an issue in late 2023 (and an annoying one). I've got a CGC 9.8 Rai #0 glossy misidentified as matte. They agreed to reholder for free but wouldn't send me a shipping label despite this being a QA flub on their part.

Sent it back along with a sticky note saying glossy not matte just to be safe. Received a return shipment notification today and the notes say matte with a new cert number. 🤦

Already emailed customer service, so we'll see what happens. :slapfight:

I was thinking about having Jim Shooter sign it a few weeks ago until I learned there wouldn't be a CGC facilitator at that convention, so figured I might as well get the label corrected ASAP. I know the two versions are easily confused, but this book was printed in 1992, the "glossy" and "matte" variants have been known and documented since at least 2004 and I think CGC began recognizing a distinction in 2015.

It's frustrating they don't seem to have an effective internal system for helping graders identify known variants, especially when this should be a whole lot simpler than something like "XYZ #1 Left-handed Variant Cover B16 Alpha 3 Bravo Portuguese Subvariant Local Comic Shop Somewhere in the Midwest That Went Out of Business Five Years Ago Edition." A grader doesn't necessarily need to know whether it's a matte or glossy version, but any issue of any book like this with known and recognized variants should automatically be flagged for QA review before it's encapsulated and sent out the door. Their internal system should have notes on how to identify which variant is in hand and QA should have a clear escalation path for dealing with outlying edge cases if a potential discrepancy is identified.

CGC4240227-011_OBV.jpg

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On 10/25/2023 at 12:36 PM, SlabSeeker said:

Appears this is still very much an issue in late 2023 (and an annoying one). I've got a CGC 9.8 Rai #0 glossy misidentified as matte. They agreed to reholder for free but wouldn't send me a shipping label despite this being a QA flub on their part.

Sent it back along with a sticky note saying glossy not matte just to be safe. Received a return shipment notification today and the notes say matte with a new cert number. 🤦

Already emailed customer service, so we'll see what happens. :slapfight:

I was thinking about having Jim Shooter sign it a few weeks ago until I learned there wouldn't be a CGC facilitator at that convention, so figured I might as well get the label corrected ASAP. I know the two versions are easily confused, but this book was printed in 1992, the "glossy" and "matte" variants have been known and documented since at least 2004 and I think CGC began recognizing a distinction in 2015.

It's frustrating they don't seem to have an effective internal system for helping graders identify known variants, especially when this should be a whole lot simpler than something like "XYZ #1 Left-handed Variant Cover B16 Alpha 3 Bravo Portuguese Subvariant Local Comic Shop Somewhere in the Midwest That Went Out of Business Five Years Ago Edition." A grader doesn't necessarily need to know whether it's a matte or glossy version, but any issue of any book like this with known and recognized variants should automatically be flagged for QA review before it's encapsulated and sent out the door. Their internal system should have notes on how to identify which variant is in hand and QA should have a clear escalation path for dealing with outlying edge cases if a potential discrepancy is identified.

CGC4240227-011_OBV.jpg

That is unfortunate as it IS a glossy :sorry: 

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